The 2025 NBA common season ended with a bang and the thrill just isn’t even near over. Members of Dartmouth Sports activities Analytics bought collectively and predicted the outcomes of the NBA play-in. Will all go as anticipated with Steph Curry’s Warriors and Paolo Banchero’s Magic punching their ticket to the dance? Or will a sleeper crew pull off the upset and preserve their playoff hopes alive? Learn extra to search out out.
Jap Convention Predictions
#7 Orlando Magic vs. #8 Atlanta Hawks
By Benjamin Ross ’28
The Magic (41–41) enter the matchup as 5-point favorites and have been robust at house, boasting a 20–8 report as house favorites this season. Led by Paolo Banchero, who averages 25.9 factors and seven.5 rebounds per recreation, and Franz Wagner, contributing 24.1 factors and 4.7 assists per recreation, Orlando has received 9 of its final 12 video games to complete the common season at .500.
The Hawks (40–42) are making their fourth consecutive Play-In look. Regardless of an inconsistent season, Atlanta has proven resilience, closing the common season with three straight wins. Trae Younger continues to steer the crew, averaging 24.2 factors and an NBA-best 11.4 assists per recreation. Rookie Zaccharie Risacher, the No. 1 total decide within the 2024 NBA Draft, has additionally been a key contributor, averaging 12.6 factors per recreation.
With the Magic on a roll, they may actually be robust to beat.
Prediction: Orlando Magic
#9 Chicago Bulls vs. #10 Miami Warmth
By Mary Sherrard ’28
Thrice this Season, the Miami Warmth have performed the Chicago Bulls. Every time, the Warmth have misplaced. As soon as on February 4th by a rating of 124 to 133. Then on March 8th, by a rating of 109 to 114. And at last, the latest recreation on April 9th by a rating of 111 to 119. Miami has misplaced each time, so why would this time be any totally different? Properly, Jimmy Butler was traded on February 5th to the Warriors in a five-team take care of the Warmth. Whereas this doesn’t essentially level to why the Warmth have misplaced in opposition to the Bulls of their first recreation of the season, it could level to the second and third recreation losses. Jimmy Butler was an all-around versatile participant and shedding him hurts. I consider that Jimmy Butler was the glue that held this crew collectively, and subsequently why I consider the Chicago Bulls will win once more in opposition to the Miami Warmth.
Prediction: Chicago Bulls
#8 Atlanta Hawks vs. #9 Chicago Bulls
By Mary Sherrard ’28
General, the Atlanta Hawks have extra wins this season at 40-42 in comparison with the Chicago Bulls at 39-43. This may counsel that the Hawks usually tend to float into the eighth seed on the jap facet of the NBA Bracket. Nevertheless, I consider the Bulls will pull by way of in an in depth recreation in opposition to the Hawks for 2 causes. First, Coby White averages 20 factors per recreation as some extent/taking pictures guard. If the Hawks are to have any probability of getting any additional this season, it is going to be with Colby White. Second, the Bulls have superb protection. The truth is, they’ve the sixth-best protection within the NBA, based on Mark Deeks, a sportswriter for Forbes. So for these causes, I believe the Chicago Bulls would be the eighth seed for the Jap facet of the NBA Bracket.
Prediction: Chicago Bulls
Western Convention Predictions
#7 Golden State Warriors vs. #8 Memphis Grizzlies
By Jack Zipper ’28
The Memphis Grizzlies and the Golden State Warriors are dissatisfied to be within the play-in. Each groups had an opportunity to clinch the six seed however dropped two of their final three video games to lose out to the Minnesota Timberwolves for the coveted spot. A win units up a matchup in opposition to the Houston Rockets. A loss means they’d have one other recreation for the privilege to play in opposition to the Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder, a scary proposition given the Thunder’s 68-win season.
The Warriors, regardless of their late season cooler, are purple sizzling. Golden State, who sat a lowly tenth within the West, acquired Jimmy Butler on the commerce deadline to reinvigorate their franchise. They received 14 out of their subsequent 16, catapulting themselves again into the playoff dialog. Jimmy Butler and Steph Curry are making the case for one of the best duo within the league because the Warriors are 22-5 when the pair is enjoying. Steph averages 27.2 factors per recreation when Butler is on the ground—nearly 3 factors per recreation greater than his season common. Draymond Inexperienced has additionally been a serious contributor; the odds-on-favorite to win the DPOY award has led the crew in rebounds, steals, and blocks. Jonathan Kuminga, Brandin Podziemski, and Buddy Hield have been double-figure scorers for the crew whereas 2nd spherical decide Quinten Submit has blossomed into an environment friendly function participant. The Dutchman has averaged simply over 8 factors on 16 minutes a recreation after debuting in January.
The Grizzlies, however, are in disarray. Sitting 36-18 on the midseason mark, good for the 2nd seed in Western Convention, a sluggish second half of the 12 months plummeted them down the standings. Head coach Taylor Jenkins was fired, and interim coach Tuomas Lisalo was unsuccessful in righting the ship because the Grizzlies received simply twelve video games within the second half of the season to complete with the eighth greatest report within the west. However, this crew is oozing with expertise. Ja Morant, after lacking most of final season resulting from suspension and harm, has come again to steer the Grizzlies in factors and assists, ending high 10 in assists per recreation (given not less than 50 video games performed). Nevertheless, he recorded his lowest taking pictures effectivity since his sophomore season in 2020–21, taking pictures solely 45.4% from the sphere. Key gamers Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr, together with a number of different function gamers, make Memphis primed for a deep playoff run. Nevertheless, it stays to be seen whether or not they can shake off their abysmal second half of the season and present up in opposition to Golden State on the Chase Middle.
Whereas the Grizzlies might have the sting in depth, the entire indicators level to a Warriors win. Jimmy Butler is a playoff monster, main his former crew, the Miami Warmth, to 2 NBA Finals appearances. His 2023 run to the finals began within the play-in, the place Butler dropped 31 factors in a 102-91 win in opposition to the Chicago Bulls to clinch the eighth seed. The Warriors are working sizzling and might make the most of a reeling Grizzlies crew to earn a positive matchup in opposition to an inexperienced Rockets crew. The Warriors, who’re 0-3 within the play-in event, will look to Butler and Curry to forged off their play-in demons and jumpstart a deep playoff run.
Prediction: Golden State Warriors
#9 Sacramento Kings vs. #10 Dallas Mavericks
By Elliott Gomes ’28
The Sacramento Kings and Dallas Mavericks had been each lively on the commerce deadline. The Kings traded away star level guard De’Aaron Fox however acquired Jonas Valanciunas and Zach LaVine. The Mavericks notably traded away the participant that fueled their playoff run the earlier season, Luka Doncic, in return for Anthony Davis. These two groups look very totally different than they did in the beginning of the season, they usually face off on Wednesday, April 16.
The Kings have a number of benefits going into the play-in recreation. For starters, they’re the hosts. They received’t need to take care of issues from flights or hostile followers. One other space they’ve an edge is well being. The most effective potential is availability, and proper now, the Kings have much more wholesome gamers than the Mavericks. The Mavericks’ greatest participant, Kyrie Irving, is out for the season, and key contributors like Klay Thompson, Anthony Davis, and Dereck Vigorous II are all questionable for the sport after lacking time.
Neither crew, nevertheless, is with out fault—that’s why they’re each within the play-in. The Kings have a unfavourable field plus-minus when LaVine and star guard Demar DeRozan are each on the courtroom. They’ll miss the presence of Malik Monk on Wednesday, they usually rank twenty third within the NBA in three-pointers made. It’s onerous for a crew to win if they’ll’t shoot within the trendy NBA. However Dallas just isn’t a lot better. They must depend on Anthony Davis for offense with Irving out, and AD has barely managed to common 20 factors per recreation on the Mavericks. He has additionally traditionally struggled in opposition to Domantas Sabonis. Davis would want to buck each developments for the Mavericks to have any probability at successful.
Prediction: Sacramento Kings
#8 Memphis Grizzlies vs. #9 Sacramento Kings
By Elliott Gomes ’28
The Memphis Grizzlies and Sacramento Kings will not be strangers to rivalry. The Grizzlies completed second within the Western Convention in each 2021–22 and 2022–23 earlier than an injury-riddled 2023–24 marketing campaign. The Kings completed third, proper behind the Grizzlies, in 2022–23. This 12 months might not have been as profitable as both crew might have hoped, however the two groups ought to be capable of battle during the last playoff spot.
The Memphis Grizzlies began the season sizzling, however they’re beneath .500 because the All-Star break. Though Desmond Bane is having a great season, their greatest participant Ja Morant just isn’t. With that being stated, Morant is essentially the most gifted participant on both crew, and he’s nonetheless liable to take over any recreation. With the lack of De’Aaron Fox, the Kings may have bother maintaining along with his uncooked athleticism. Jaren Jackson Jr. is a former Defensive Participant of the Yr who may help include the Kings’ Domantas Sabonis. The Grizzlies, as a crew, stack up nicely in opposition to the Kings.
The Kings have expertise—DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine each common over 20 factors per recreation, and Sabonis is at all times a participant to be aware of—however they haven’t put it collectively. LaVine, curiously, has a unfavourable field plus/minus for the Kings on the season. The Kings are just below .500 on the season, they usually don’t appear to have found out easy methods to use the expertise on their roster. This play-in recreation must be no totally different.
Prediction: Memphis Grizzlies
So there you will have it. The panel of DSA specialists have predicted the Magic, Bulls, Warriors, and Grizzlies to advance out of the play-in event and into the playoffs. This postseason actually guarantees to be entertaining and we can not approach to see how all the things unfolds. Keep tuned for extra DSA posts and predictions.
