Welcome again to Goldipucks and the Three Skaters, a play on phrases of the Goldilocks and the Three Bears story. As an alternative of there being three bowls of porridge although, I cowl three skaters and declare one too scorching (i.e., doing unsustainably higher than he ought to), one other too chilly (i.e., doing unsustainably worse), and a 3rd “excellent” (i.e., producing the place he needs to be). As well as, I additionally assign every a score of 1-10, indicating how scorching (rated 7-10, the place 10 is probably the most unsustainably scorching), chilly (rated 1-4, the place 1 is probably the most unsustainably chilly), or “excellent” (rated 4-7, the place 5.5 is probably the most “excellent”) he’s.
In my current ballot asking you to choose the 5 most underrated gamers in fantasy, I used to be pleasantly stunned that a number of gamers received a superb share of the votes. That prompted me to determine to do a deeper 5 on three of them – Jake Sanderson, Shea Theodore, and Kyle Connor – to seek out out who amongst them is having a 2024-25 that’s too scorching, versus too chilly, or “excellent.” Stats for all three are present by means of April 11, 2025 video games.
Jake Sanderson (78 GP, 11 G, 45 A, 189 SOG, 24:23 TOI, 28 PPPts, 3:22 PP, 63.9% PP%)
The second-generation participant was grabbed fifth total by Ottawa in 2020; however to the shock of many, he didn’t debut within the NHL till two seasons later, because the Sens appeared greater than content material to let Sanderson advantageous tune his recreation within the NCAA. As soon as with the massive membership, he was within the NHL to remain. But in neither of his first two seasons did he attain even the point-per-every-other-game mark, main some to marvel if he can be pretty much as good as hoped. This season, nevertheless, he is hovering at a 60-point tempo. Is he simply scratching the floor? I would say the reply is a convincing sure.
Sanderson is on the right track to common a minute extra TOI this season than final, identical to he did from his rookie season to 2023-24. Though there may be solely a lot increased his TOI can go, what’s good is that this season he is seen one other achieve regardless of getting used much less on the PK. In truth, simply three of the 12 defensemen averaging extra TOI per recreation than him see extra PK time per contest. The difficulty is Sanderson has to see PK responsibility in the meanwhile for the reason that Sens do not actually have a lot better choices. However because the group improves, and Sanderson additional reveals his offensive worth, his PK responsibility ought to shrink, for a internet achieve even when he sees no added TOI per contest, though he does have 4 SHP for what it is price. As for the PP, his per recreation common places him within the high 5 amongst all d-men; however he takes the ice for less than 63.9% of his group’s man benefit minutes, inserting him nineteenth amongst d-men, with half of the 18 forward of him being within the 70s. And with the Sens being the group that draw probably the most penalties within the NHL, that needs to be a recipe for much more scoring for Sanderson.
Like TOI, Sanderson’s SOG per recreation is on observe to extend but once more, simply because it beforehand did. At 2.4 per recreation, it has particular room to realistically develop additional even when he does not get extra TOI, both total or on the PP. If he does see extra positive factors, it ought to imply extra factors, as in Q3 when he averaged precisely three SOG per recreation, he was some extent per recreation participant. Coincidence? I would say no. What’s additionally undoubtedly good to see is Sanderson’s SOG charge having elevated with out his SH% dropping considerably, because it’s barely beneath the place it was final season. Additionally, a constructive is that Sanderson is firing extra pucks on internet on the PP, as he stands second in all the NHL amongst rearguards in PPSOG. Moreover, he’s on tempo to have at practically 50% extra PPSOG than final season, plus his PP SH%, which was 7.5% final season, is up this marketing campaign, to 10.1%, for a win-win.
Two items of knowledge really recommend Sanderson has room for main positive factors in scoring, specifically his group SH% at 5×5 and his OZ%. Trying on the former first, for 2024-25, a complete of 197 defensemen have performed a minimum of 40 video games, with Sanderson’s 6.2% group SH% at 5×5 inserting him fifth lowest, barely above third lowest. Sure, simply over half his factors have come on the PP; nevertheless, for him to have even managed to tally as many as he has at ES is sort of superb given this case. In truth, of the 9 rearguards who presently have extra factors than Sanderson, simply two (Evan Bouchard, Josh Morrissey) have a charge beneath 9.1%. Briefly, when this normalizes – and spot I mentioned when, not if – Sanderson’s scoring ought to put him within the highest echelon of d-man scorers.
As for OZ%, Sanderson’s sits at 42.8%, which suggests he is within the backside 25% of the identical group of rearguards who’ve performed 40+ video games. Of these whose charge is decrease, a grand complete of ZERO are averaging even some extent per each different recreation in scoring. To land on one of many rearguards who has extra factors than Sanderson, it’s important to go all the best way to Zach Werenski at 56.8% to seek out the following lowest, with greater than half being above 60%. If Sanderson will get wherever near these percentages, he ought to see main scoring positive factors.
Should you’ve learn this far, you may notice regardless of Sanderson’s main positive factors his 2024-25 has been TOO COLD. For him to have finished what he is finished regardless of the OZ% and 5×5 SH% headwinds he is confronted is superb, and indicative of a really vibrant future, particularly since he nonetheless has room to shoot extra, plus see a better proportion of PP TOI. If he was put into the identical state of affairs as any of these forward of him in scoring, it is troublesome to see how he’d not be pushing level per recreation scoring. As such, he will get a score of 1.5; and if one way or the other you’ll find a option to pry him away from his proprietor in a keeper, accomplish that and put together to be handsomely rewarded.
Kyle Connor (79 GP, 40 G, 54 A, 257 SOG, 20:24 TOI, 28 PPPts 2:49 PP, 68.0% PP%)
Grabbed seventeenth total by the Jets a decade in the past, Connor performed one other season of school hockey then most of 2016-17 within the AHL, earlier than touchdown in Winnipeg to remain for 2017-18. He definitely made a significant early influence, with 57 factors in 76 video games. From there his scoring charge rose, and he was some extent per recreation participant by his third full season. He then took a step again, earlier than exploding for 93 factors in 79 video games in 2021-22. In his subsequent two campaigns he was proper beneath the purpose per recreation mark, making many concern he was a one hit marvel. But for 2024-25 he is at that very same tempo as 2021-22. Is it possible this time we’ll see him carry this momentum past simply the present season? I am afraid the reply is not any.
For starters, Connor’s ice occasions, each total and on the PP, are nicely beneath what they have been in 2021-22. In truth, his PP TOI is decrease than it has been since his first full season. His total TOI and SOG charges are most similar to 2022-23, when his scoring tempo was 81. Additionally, though his PP per recreation charge is sort of equivalent to what it was in that fateful 2021-22 season, it is nearly equivalent to what it was in 2022-23 as nicely.
How then can we clarify the huge distinction in scoring charges from 2021-22 to 2022-23? SOG charge for starters, as Connor fired a mean of 4 pucks on internet in 2021-22, dropping to solely 3.3 in 2022-23. He ticked again as much as 3.4 final season; but for 2024-25 he is a notch decrease at 3.3 once more. Provided that Connor has additionally maintained the same SH% most each season, and in view of the very fact his SOG charge every quarter for 2024-25 has been roughly the identical, it certain seems like he is lucked into extra factors than deserved. Let’s dig deeper to substantiate.
Connor’s PP time is one way or the other down, regardless of remaining a PP1 fixture and taking the ice for greater than two-thirds of Winnipeg’s PP minutes. How is that? Easy – whereas Ottawa is taking probably the most penalties of any NHL group, Winnipeg is in the midst of the pack. Had they been a lot decrease, I would be capable to presume Connor’s per recreation PP TOI may rise once more; however the place they’re now is likely to be indicative of the place they are going to be subsequent season, which might not assist Connor within the scoring division.
One other difficulty with Connor is his group 5×5 SH%, which is 11.2%. That’s not so obviously excessive as to indicate it has to come back down; however it is a participant who by no means in his profession had been in double digits, even in his 2021-22 season. So 11% will not be sustainable, Connor’s OZ% is also at 63.6%, which might mark a profession excessive. Granted, he was above 60% in every of the final two seasons; nevertheless, certainly one of two issues will occur, specifically he’ll get extra ice time however see his OZ% shrink, or it can keep the identical however imply he can’t rise to the extent he was in 2021-22, when, for the report, his OZ% was 57.6%.
Taking a look at IPPs, they too are nearly a carbon copy of 2023-24, which but once more makes it much less simple to think about him replicating his success. His secondary help charge, at 42.6% is a tad excessive for him, however not a lot as to have gifted him greater than a pair further factors. Nonetheless, these items add up. For what it is price, his total IPP within the 2021-22 season was 81.1%. It was 73.5% final season, and this season it is 73.4%, whereas on the PP it was 71.1% in 2021-22, marking not solely the lone time it was above 70%, however the sole occasion of it being above 66%. Right here too his charge for 2024-25 is sort of the identical because it was for the 2023-24 season, with them being 65.1% and 65.5% respectively.
We will not ignore that Winnipeg is clicking offensively, scoring 3.41 objectives per recreation. That is in distinction to three.16 final season, and three.07 in 2021-22. The difficulty is it is not clear to me whether or not the group has it in them to keep up this tempo, with a core that’s totally on the opposite facet of 30. As an alternative, I see them prone to slide subsequent season, again nearer to, if not at or beneath, the speed they have been in these different two seasons. One thing else to contemplate is Connor has been slowing because the season has unfolded, with 55 factors in 44 video games within the first half, but solely 39 factors in 35 video games since then. For This fall he has been merely some extent per recreation participant, or proper the place he normally is.
Connor is a strong NHL participant who you possibly can draft with confidence that his flooring shall be at or simply beneath some extent per recreation. However the two situations the place he rose far above that charge are defined by a SOG charge he is by no means come near equaling, and this season by him having metrics which might be too much like these of his final two seasons, when he had scoring charges of 77 and 81, plus him slowing considerably after a scorching begin. As such, Connor’s 2024-25 has been TOO HOT, and he will get a score of 9.0, as I would anticipate that going ahead he’ll revert to his ordinary level per recreation charge, which means for those who can promote excessive you need to discover doing so.
Shea Theodore (64 GP, 7 G, 47 A, 123 SOG, 21:55 TOI, 19 PPPts, 2:37 PP, 72.2% PP%)
Additionally grabbed within the first spherical, Theodore didn’t impress with Anaheim, who traded him to Vegas as a part of a deal to forestall the Knights from taking Josh Manson within the enlargement draft. Early on, Theodore performed simply okay with the Knights, with two seasons just under level per each different recreation manufacturing. Since then although he is had two seasons of a scoring charge within the 50s, two within the 60s, and this season he is inside a whisker of his second in a row within the 70s. Is that this the brand new regular for Theodore? I would say sure certainly.
At first, Theodore’s elevated scoring charge seems suspect, because it’s come as his SOG charge, which peaked at 3.1 per recreation in 2019-20, has dropped with every passing season, to now be beneath two per contest. However on the identical time, Theodore’s share of PP time has risen of late, as, after being over 70% that very same 2019-20 season it dropped till leaping to 67.0% final season and now being 72.2%, a proportion exceeded by solely three defensemen, every of whom has a minimum of as soon as scored at some extent per recreation charge. But his mere 2:37 per recreation of PP time places him barely within the high 50 amongst defensemen. That is as a result of Vegas sits useless final in variety of PP alternatives this season, this after being within the high ten final season. Given that there’s just one place to go – specifically up – from final, I would search for Theodore to see his PP minutes rise significantly subsequent season, which ought to greater than amply compensate for any loss in factors because of fewer SOG.
Turning to Theodore’s different metrics, issues take a look at nicely. His secondary help charge is 42.6%, which might mark a profession low and is in the identical neighborhood as high tier defensemen scorers. His 5×5 group SH% is 9.5%, which is true in the midst of the 9.0% and 9.8% he had the previous two seasons. His OZ% is 57.8%, which might be equivalent to final season and really beneath what it was as lately as 2019-20 and 2020-21, so no points there. As for his IPPs, his total charge is true in the midst of what it was the final two seasons, whereas on the PP it is lagging beneath his norm, however at 59.4% continues to be a lot good for a PP! d-man. Briefly, there are not any indicators of bother. And if something, he may stand to achieve factors given these numbers, sufficient definitely to offset any misplaced factors because of fewer SOG.
However what of the truth that Theodore is an authorized Band-Help Boy? Will not that take a toll over time? To me, it is overblown, as Theodore doesn’t have recurring accidents to the identical space; plus, by lacking video games every season his “hockey age” is lower than his precise age, such that he ought to have more energizing legs later in his profession. Additionally, there have been many situations of Band-Help Boy defensemen who have been in a position to be high tier scorers regardless of frequent accidents, notably Kris Letang, Dustin Byfuglien, Victor Hedman, and John Carlson. Sure, it’s primarily Letang and Buff who’ve the Band-Help Boy observe report of Theodore; nevertheless, Hedman and Carlson did miss a piece of video games in a minimum of a number of seasons and it didn’t have an effect on them whereas it was ongoing or thereafter.
There’s a wild card in that Noah Hanifin proved himself to be succesful whereas Theodore was injured, and is signed to a hefty contract. And of late he is eaten into Theodore’s PP time. However Hanifin is a extra full d-man, which can tackle added significance as Alex Pietrangelo continues to sluggish. Ot to place it one other means, Hanifin has extra real-life hockey significance, whereas Theodore’s objective is finest served by him being put right into a place to create blueline offense. If each are wholesome, I do not see a universe the place Hanifin is given the keys to PP1, particularly after Theodore and Vegas got here to an settlement prompting Theodore to not enter unrestricted free company. If for some cause Vegas feels Hanifin wants the PP1 position as nicely, then for certain there can be a protracted line of suitors desirous to commerce for Theodore and deploy him as favorably, if not much more so, than he has been in Vegas.
Though oft-injured, Theodore appears to be getting higher with age; and all his accidents may assist by giving him more energizing legs longer. He could also be taking pictures much less, however his metrics are these of a high tier rearguard; plus, not like Noah Hanifin, he’s one-dimensional sufficient to all however guarantee he will get favorable deployment, together with all of the PP time he can deal with. As such, Theodore’s 2024-25 has been JUST RIGHT, and he will get assigned a score of 5.25, as I see him persevering with to be a 70-point d-man going ahead.
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Questions for Mailbag
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