Welcome again to Goldipucks and the Three Skaters, a play on phrases of the Goldilocks and the Three Bears story. As an alternative of there being three bowls of porridge although, I cowl three skaters and declare one too sizzling (i.e., doing unsustainably higher than he ought to), one other too chilly (i.e., doing unsustainably worse), and a 3rd “good” (i.e., producing the place he needs to be). As well as, I additionally assign every a score of 1-10, indicating how sizzling (rated 7-10, the place 10 is probably the most unsustainably sizzling), chilly (rated 1-4, the place 1 is probably the most unsustainably chilly), or “good” (rated 4-7, the place 5.5 is probably the most “good”) he’s.
As troublesome as it’s to accurately predict whether or not – and, if that’s the case, to what extent – a prospect will thrive within the NHL, it is also no small activity to determine how lengthy confirmed gamers can proceed to supply at a excessive degree. With that in thoughts, the skaters on faucet this week (Brayden Level, Leon Draisaitl, Nathan MacKinnon) will all be turning 30 both earlier than or throughout the course of subsequent season. Which one among them can maintain enjoying at his identical degree (“good”), versus do even higher (“too chilly“), or needs to be on account of regress (“too sizzling“) based mostly on 2024-25 information? Put in your pondering caps, make your guesses, and skim on to see in the event you nailed all three.
Brayden Level (77 GP, 40 G, 42 A, 188 SOG, 19:29 TOI, 31 PPPts, 3:28 PP, 74.9% PP%)
Grabbed within the third spherical by Tampa in 2014, Level predictably didn’t land within the NHL instantly. However by age 20 he was with the Bolts to remain. He fared properly his first two seasons, however turned maybe the poster boy for the 200 sport breakout threshold by rising to 92 factors in 79 video games in his third season. After that although, he got here again to earth, earlier than rising to 90+ in every of 2022-23 and 2023-24, and almost hitting the mark once more this season. Is that this proper the place he needs to be? May he gradual? Or may he rise additional? Most certainly we’re a brand new regular of a sub-90 scoring tempo for him.
If you happen to look at Level’s metrics, what instantly stands proud is his three straight seasons with a SH% above 20% whereas additionally averaging 2.4+ SOG in every season, all at age 25+. If that appears outstanding, it’s, as nobody had performed that since Mario Lemieux. The truth is, the one different pure facilities to additionally obtain the feat in NHL historical past had been Gilbert Perrault and Peter Stastny. The problem is these two are troublesome to check with Level, as they had been stars in their very own proper, whereas Level has unquestionably benefited from enjoying alongside a real famous person in Nikita Kucherov.
If you happen to’re anticipating me to say that could be a cause for concern for Level, it is not, since there are zero indicators the 2 will probably be separated. The problem although is whether or not Level can realistically get higher, and even rise again above 90 factors, as though he performed alongside Kucherov as a lot as normal, Level’s scoring wasn’t fairly as excessive as it has been. However why not?
For one, his SOG fee is dropping, down from 2.9 per sport in 2022-23, to 2.8 in 2023-24, to 2.4 in 2024-25. Since he cannot realistically see his SH% rise additional, this got here on the expense of scoring for 2024-25. Past that, in This autumn, Level had 18 factors in 21 video games on simply 44 SOG. Though he additionally had a dud quarter in 2023-24, in it he nonetheless had 52 SOG in 21 video games, plus for 2024-25 it was to finish the season, whereas in 2023-24 his greatest scoring tempo got here in This autumn. I notice 29 is younger to think about somebody beginning to put on down, however let’s remember with this yr’s playoffs, Level has performed precisely a full season’s value of video games simply in his playoff profession. That provides up, as does the actual fact he isn’t getting the possibility to totally relaxation and recuperate like most, due to so many deep playoff runs by Tampa. Let’s simply say his decrease SOG fee for the season, and worst quarter, being This autumn should not reassuring.
So far as TOI, Level continued to see nearly no PK obligation, whereas once more taking the ice for 3 quarters of his workforce’s man benefit minutes. However his total TOI was down, albeit above what it was in two of the three situations the place he had a 90+ level scoring tempo. It’s notable too that his workforce shot a whopping 12.4% at 5×5 with him on the ice. Double digits is nothing new for Level, however that was a profession excessive, as was his PDO. Not reassuring both, though there’s some solace in Level’s total IPP and secondary help fee being proper the place they normally are.
Additionally, regardless of Level’s PP scoring staying secure, his PP IPP that was a profession better of 64.6%, which, though not excessive, was the primary time he was above 60%. I wager you are pondering I will say that’s worrisome too? Quite the opposite. Though Tampa tallied a purpose on 25.9% of its PP alternatives, good for fifth in all the NHL, that was down from 28.6% in 2023-24. My sense is that this was because of the departure of Steven Stamkos, who was so integral to that PP1 unit – with 74 PPPts in his final two Tampa campaigns – that they wanted time to transform issues. Though in concept many PPPts usually earmarked for Stamkos ought to go to Jake Guentzel, the workforce additionally has now used Brandon Hagel on the highest unit; and though Hagel is a monster at even energy, he isn’t a PPPt magnet, with a PP IPP this season of simply 28.9%. What I see unfolding is Level’s PP IPP rising even additional as he absorbs PPPts that Stamkos would’ve gotten, whereas the Lightning, with a season of no Stamkos on PP1, ought to have extra success with the person benefit come 2025-26. In the long run, I can envision Level getting 5+ extra PPPts than normal subsequent season and past, particularly since his PPG complete solely rose by one, and he will probably be regarded to extra for sniping on the person benefit.
No query Level has among the finest gigs in hockey, centering if not the very best participant within the NHL, arguably the very best winger. With that exhibiting no indicators of ending, nor Kucherov of slowing, Level ought to proceed to be very productive. So though there have been some regarding 2024-25 metrics, they stand to be offset considerably, if not completely, by PPPts that Level stands to achieve. However with Level taking pictures much less and taking the ice much less, I feel his days of 90+ factors are possible gone, making his 2024-25 output JUST RIGHT, and giving him a score of 5.75, as I see him touchdown within the 85-90 vary for the following few seasons.
Leon Draisaitl (71 GP, 52 G, 54 A, 240 SOG, 21:31 TOI, 28 PPPts 3:17 PP, 81.3% PP%)
The Oilers chosen Draisaitl in that very same 2014 draft, however third total. Not like Level, it took a bit longer for Draisaitl to be vastly impactful; nonetheless, since posting a 100+ level tempo for the primary time in 2018-19, he is but to not achieve this once more. However after two straight seasons of 120+ level manufacturing, Draisaitl’s scoring fee has been a bit up and down, with 2024-25 being an up yr. Will 2025-26 be a down one? No, as I see him having the ability to enhance upon what he did in 2024-25.
I will begin with Draisaitl the place I did with Level, particularly SH%, as Draisaitl established a profession excessive at 21.7%. However he is been above 21.0% two prior occasions and no decrease than 18.5% since he began his superb scoring run. Sure, he established this profession excessive whereas additionally averaging 3.4 SOG per sport, his second highest fee, trailing solely the three.5 he averaged in 2021-22. However in that season his SH% was 19.8%. So is there cause for concern? I do not suppose so, as if we have a look at every quarter of 2024-25, Draisaitl had a reasonably constant SOG fee, that means this was not inflated due to a supernova stretch of scoring targets left and proper. Principally, this story checks out.
PPPts, 2023-24 was the primary season since he exploded that Draisaitl did not common no less than one PPPt per each different sport, and this season his fee was even decrease. However after the Oilers had 242 PP alternatives in 2023-24, scoring on 26.4% of them, that they had solely 215 in 2024-25, scoring on a good decrease share at 23.8%. How did this occur? Most certainly on account of Draisaitl and Connor McDavid lacking 10+ video games in the identical season. Though Draisaitl truly averaged a bit higher than a PPT per sport within the contests he performed when McDavid was out of the line-up, the workforce’s PP appeared a bit extra neutered as an entire, with Draisaitl having solely 5 video games with two or extra PPPts, tallying precisely two PPPts in every, versus eight such multi-PPPts contests in 2023-24, tallying three in one among them. It actually looks like Edmonton was not firing on all cylinders when it got here to the PP, and I don’t see Draisaitl, who had a profession greatest 78.6% PP IPP, failing to pile up as many PPPts come 2025-26.
Talking of IPPs, Draisaitl’s total was 81.5%, additionally a profession greatest. So there is just one strategy to go and that is down, proper? Nope. Whereas in 2023-24, McDavid was Draisaitl’s most frequent linemate in three of 4 quarters, this season that solely occurred in a single quarter, with him being saddled within the different three with primarily Victor Arvidsson, Vasily Podkolzin, and Kasperi Kapanen. It is no surprise his IPP was so excessive. If he can rating in addition to he did enjoying principally alongside expertise thus far under him, then both his IPP will keep sky excessive if he’s tasked with doing so once more, or it would go down, but when that happens he’ll be enjoying with higher gamers – maybe a again to well being Evander Kane? – with extra targets being scored. Both means, I see it as extra possible that he does even higher at ES come subsequent season.
Maybe on account of his not very gifted linemates, Draisaitl’s 5×4 workforce SH% was 8.8%, which to some may be completely affordable. For Draisaitl although, it was his lowest mark since he turned a constant 100+ level scoring fee participant. The 2 prior seasons it was 10.3% and 10.0% respectively, with a kind of being an up season and the opposite a down one. So for positive 8.8% is unsustainably low. As for secondary help fee, that was proper at his norm, so nothing notable there.
Lastly, Draisaitl led all forwards in 2024-25 in share of video games with no less than one level, in addition to share of multipoint video games. How then, did he not have the very best scoring fee within the league, as an alternative touchdown behind Nikita Kucherov and tied with McDavid? As a result of he had 9 video games with three or extra factors, with the very best being only one 4 level sport. Distinction that to McDavid, who performed in 4 fewer video games and had 5 fewer multipoint video games, however had 13 video games with 3+ factors, two of which noticed him submit 4 factors, or Nikita Kucherov, who had three fewer multipoint video games, but greater than half of these video games noticed Kucherov tally three or extra factors, together with three video games with 4 and one with six. 2022-23 the place Draisaitl had 128 factors, that included 17 video games with 3+ factors, two of these being 4 factors efforts and one other two seeing him submit 5 factors. Lengthy story brief, Draisaitl, regardless of so many multi-points video games and being so constant, ought to’ve produced higher on account of fewer than his regular variety of contests with 3+ factors.
No shock – Draisatil checks out as among the many true elite within the NHL. For him to have scored as many factors as he did in 2024-25 regardless of such awful linemates, a down yr for the Edmonton’s PP, and fewer large video games, is a testomony to how outstanding he’s. These components ought to enhance, and, with that, his scoring must rise. I see his 2024-25 as TOO COLD and I give him a score of three.25, as we must always pencil him in for 130+ factors for 2025-26.
Nathan MacKinnon (79 GP, 32 G, 84 A, 318 SOG, 22:47 TOI, 38 PPPts, 3:50 PP, 81.9% PP%)
Picked first total in 2013, Mac took roughly the identical period of time as Drasaitl earlier than he rose to the extent to which we have now grown accustomed. However not like Draisaitl, Mac appears to be getting even higher, as after a 111 level scoring tempo for 3 straight seasons he is been at or above a 120 level tempo in every of the final three. However 2024-25 was 120, after 128 and 140. May it’s that Mac has peaked; or will he rise once more? Sorry to say for Mac homeowners, but it surely appears to be like like we have already seen the very best of him, and hitting a 120 level tempo once more is iffy.
Whereas nobody will query that MacKinnon is fantastically gifted, and a tremendous participant in his personal proper, there’s the fact that each one his greatest seasons have come since Mikko Rantanen joined the Avs in 2016-17. Granted, they didn’t all the time play collectively at 5×5; however wanting again, they had been collectively much more usually than aside when all was mentioned and performed. And final season, when Mac posted a profession greatest 140 factors, all however 23 of these factors got here with Rantanen additionally on the ice. The query turns into this – can we get a way, from the 30 video games Mac performed after Rantanen left city, what the influence of his absence on MacKinnon may be? Let’s have a look.
MacKinnon totaled 41 factors in these 30 video games, for a scoring fee of 112. Nonetheless nice, however properly under his superb fee of those previous three seasons, and extra consistent with his prior three seasons. Past that, 18 of these factors got here in simply 5 video games, that means within the different 25 he was below a degree per sport! On the plus aspect, he had 17 PPPts in these 30 video games, that means a fee higher than a degree per each different sport, whereas previous to Rantanen leaving his fee of PP scoring was decrease. The workforce’s PP conversion share was 24.5%, down solely barely from 24.8%, that means their PP was not neutered. However given his drop in total scoring, the departure of Rantanen would appear to not bode properly for Mac to have the ability to rating at a degree just like the previous three seasons.
Additionally, it is not as if a participant of the caliber of Rantanen will be added, as Gabriel Landeskog is prone to rejoin the workforce, along with his hefty wage counting once more. Martin Necas was superb early within the season, however light, and was not reignited on Colorado. Mitch Marner can be on the expertise degree of Rantanen, however too pricy so as to add, leaving the likes of Brock Boeser or Nikolaj Ehlers, each of whom may do properly however are not possible to be mistaken for Rantanen.
It’s additionally notable that MacKinnon’s SOG fee, after peaking at 5.2 per sport in 2022-23, fell to 4.9 final season, however then dropped all the best way to 4.0 in 2024-25. That is consequential, as solely as soon as did MacKinnon beforehand have a 100+ level scoring fee with a SOG per sport fee that was decrease. Sure, MacKinnon was taking pictures barely extra usually after the departure of Rantanen, with 130 SOG in these 30 contests, for a fee of 4.3 per sport; nonetheless, his fee was above that in all however two of his 100+ factors scoring tempo seasons, and that different season too was not one the place he was within the 120+ vary.
It’s not completely unhealthy information although, as Colorado shot solely 8.7% at 5×5 with MacKinnon on the ice, and his PDO was below 1000. That is vital since in every of the prior 5 seasons these numbers had been 10.7-11.6% and 1017-1029. His secondary help fee was neither excessive nor low. Nonetheless, these metrics, although prone to stem the tide of misplaced factors, seemingly won’t be sufficient to thoroughly offset them, particularly since MacKinnon is principally maxed out in relation to TOI each total and on the PP. So far as IPPs, he’s not one who has a lot variance in that space, and was neither excessive nor low in 2024-25, so no hope there, but in addition no added concern.
MacKinnon was and nonetheless is a supremely gifted participant, and I do not see a universe the place he fails to attain at a 100+ level tempo. However his latest stretch of 120+ level scoring paces look to be poised to finish given what we noticed each for 2024-25 total and after the departure of Rantanen, who, merely put, can’t be changed usually but in addition in view of the various years of chemistry that developed between him and Mac. As such, MacKinnon’s 2024-25 was TOO HOT, and he will get a score of 8.25, as I see him falling again to 110 level territory, with a greater probability of dropping to 105 than rising to 115.
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Questions for Mailbag
My subsequent month-to-month mailbag has loads of room for extra questions. To get yours to me, you’ll be able to both ship (1) a non-public message to “rizzeedizzee” through the DobberHockey Boards, or (2) an e-mail to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the topic line.
