The NHL offseason at all times brings a wave of participant motion. Some names land with contenders, others with rebuilding squads, and each new jersey comes with new context. For fantasy managers, the hot button is figuring out which modifications really matter. Ice time shifts, new linemates, and particular groups utilization can tilt the scales greater than uncooked expertise alone.
This week, I am breaking down 4 gamers who’ve discovered new properties and will see their fantasy worth transfer accordingly. Utilizing per-60 manufacturing, league common benchmarks, and percentile comparisons, we’ll take a better take a look at who’s trending up, who may stall out, and who’s price maintaining in your radar as draft season approaches.
For reference, the typical Fantasy Factors Per Recreation (FPPG) in 2024–25 sat at 6.43 for forwards and 6.20 for defensemen. Preserve that in thoughts as we dive in, any participant constantly exceeding that threshold in a brand new position could possibly be in line for a breakout or bounce-back 12 months.
Chris Kreider – Anaheim Geese (LW)- Projected Prime/Center Six Ahead & PP1
24/25 Stats:
Kreider’s transfer to Anaheim comes on the heels of what was, statistically, the second-worst season of his profession. His ice time dropped by almost two minutes per recreation, and his total scoring slowed down to1.58 Factors/60, barely beneath the league common for forwards. That stated, the core of his recreation did not vanish. He nonetheless hit the 20-goal mark, and 10 of these got here by way of particular groups (6 PP, 4 SH), which suggests he’s nonetheless beneficial in key offensive roles.
What’s extra attention-grabbing is how Kreider impacted his linemates. When he shared the ice with Mika Zibanejad and Reilly Smith, their Corsi-For charges improved. When he was off the ice, these charges dipped. He may not drive play on his personal, however he enhances playmakers properly and nonetheless thrives within the soiled areas. Anaheim’s younger roster might use a participant like that. With a superb likelihood at first-unit energy play time and a lighter expectation to hold a line, Kreider might quietly return mid-round worth, particularly in leagues that reward particular groups scoring.
Vladimir Tarasenko – Minnesota Wild (RW) – Projected Center Six Ahead & PP2
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After a forgettable 12 months in Detroit, Tarasenko heads to Minnesota seeking to reboot his offensive recreation. He managed to remain wholesome for 80 video games however posted simply 33 factors , his lowest full-season complete and a far cry from his earlier scoring tempo. Most of his ice time got here in a third-line position alongside J.T. Compher and Jonathan Berggren, and whereas the road noticed impartial shot metrics (CF%), Tarasenko was clearly not making the affect anticipated of him. One stat that jumps out: 61 giveaways, a serious crimson flag for a participant recognized for his imaginative and prescient and puck management. When that many performs are dying in your stick, it is not simply dangerous luck, it is misplaced edge.
Nonetheless, there’s hope in Minnesota’s system. With a deeper defensive construction and fewer strain to hold play, Tarasenko may discover extra room to create. His rush makes an attempt (ninety fifth percentile) and shot quantity (63rd percentile) had been nonetheless respectable, suggesting there’s gasoline left if the match is correct. He tasks as a middle-six winger with PP2 upside, and whereas his fantasy ceiling is not what it was, he could possibly be an honest bench choice in deeper leagues, particularly if he clicks early with Minnesota’s offensive wants. He’ll play alongside different expert gamers who’ve a gritty edge, Matt Boldy or Joel Eriksson Ek would pair enormously with the extremely expert playmaker
Trevor Zegras – Philadelphia Flyers (C/LW)- Projected Prime Six Ahead & PP2
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Zegras leaves Anaheim after one other injury-shortened marketing campaign, logging simply 57 video games however ending with 32 factors, an excellent 0.56 factors per recreation. His utilization remained principally in a second-line position, and whereas his uncooked manufacturing was modest, his underlying affect was stronger. He improved the Corsi For charges of linemates like Alex Killorn, Mason McTavish, and Leo Carlsson, suggesting he nonetheless drives possession and contributes meaningfully to play improvement. When he was off the ice, these gamers struggled extra to generate offense.
Now in Philadelphia, Zegras tasks to fit into one other second-line position, probably with time on the second power-play unit. He might additionally return to taking part in heart, a place the place he is proven extra offensive creativity earlier in his profession. The problem might be incomes belief together with his play away from the puck. Zegras is not recognized for defensive consistency or bodily engagement, and his fantasy worth will rely upon how a lot leash he will get to concentrate on offense. If the Flyers let him play to his strengths, he could possibly be a sneaky bounce-back candidate. However except you are in a deeper league or worth upside, he is higher handled as a mid-draft flyer, not a foundational piece.
Noah Dobson – Montreal Canadiens (D) – Projected Prime Pairing Defenseman & PP2
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Regardless of a dip in manufacturing, Dobson was one of many few regular contributors on a struggling Islanders crew final season. He completed with 10 targets and 29 assists for 39 factors in 71 video games, respectable for a defenseman, however beneath his earlier annual paces. He logged over 23 minutes per night time, principally paired with Alexander Romanov, and his teammates constantly carried out higher with him on the ice than with out. Dobson drove play in all conditions, and his capability to tilt the ice was one of many few shiny spots in Lengthy Island’s in any other case mediocre 12 months.
Now in Montreal, he’ll be given each likelihood to thrive. With energy play accountability, robust offensive zone deployment (79th percentile), and his regular top-pair minutes, Dobson has the platform to bounce again in an enormous means. His shot quantity is elite (98th percentile in Photographs/60), he contributes closely to his crew’s offense (ninety fifth percentile in FPPG/60), and he stays strong defensively, main all defensemen in Takeaways per 60. If he can tighten up the giveaways, there’s professional top-tier fantasy worth right here. In most codecs, Dobson ought to be handled as a high-upside defenseman price focusing on early among the many second tier.
Remaining Ideas
Whether or not it is a change in crew, system, line mates, or only a new alternative, offseason strikes can unlock fantasy worth in methods the field rating would not at all times present. Gamers like Dobson and Zegras might thrive in additional supportive environments, whereas veterans like Tarasenko and Kreider are strolling into roles that match their present strengths. Each title on this listing carries some stage of threat, but in addition the potential to outperform draft-day expectations if issues break proper.
As at all times, context issues. Do not simply chase title worth, watch how these gamers are deployed in preseason, verify early energy play utilization, and use Frozen Instruments to maintain tabs on line combos. Alternative and belief are every part.
Should you’re seeking to spherical out your draft board with upside and quantity, the fellows above ought to be in your radar. New groups. New roles. And perhaps, new fantasy ceilings.
All knowledge from NaturalStatTrick & HockeyReference
