After final week’s dive into potential first-time 40-goal scorers, you most likely noticed this one coming, the 50-goal membership is up subsequent. Solely a small slice of the league ever will get there. So, let’s be clear: not one of the 10 names beneath have hit that mark but, however every of them has an opportunity. Not all will get to 50, some have been knocking for some time, others are heating up on the proper time, and some are dart throws. Nonetheless, this record is just not about ensures, it’s at all times about dialog starters, eyebrow raisers, and perhaps a bit fantasy gold if you’re paying consideration.
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10. Artemi Panarin – New York Rangers
Panarin hit 49 objectives in 2023, he adopted that up with 37 objectives final season on a stable 15.7% taking pictures and three photographs per recreation – good numbers, simply not fairly 50-goal territory. His superior metrics are sturdy, displaying he drives play and creates high quality possibilities. His playmaking stays elite and he nonetheless logs huge minutes with heavy PP utilization, however his present shot quantity and effectivity counsel he’s extra more likely to land in need of the 50-goal membership. At this stage of his profession, Panarin’s extra surgical than explosive, so except he decides to shoot a bit extra and go a bit much less, 50 objectives is a feat.
9. Jason Robertson – Dallas Stars
Jason Robertson has the palms and instincts, no query, however his 50-goal case is slipping. After hitting 46 in 2022, he has dropped into the 28–35 vary, with shot quantity falling from practically 4 per recreation to 2.7. Now throw in Mikko Rantanen, one other 50-goal scorer, who may reduce into high-danger possibilities. The ability continues to be elite, however fewer photographs and fewer utilization imply the trail to 50 is steeper. Until he begins firing once more and the Stars get again to controlling play, it appears like wishful considering greater than an actual wager, however he can’t be counted out.
8. Filip Forsberg – Nashville Predators
Forsberg got here only one shy of Panarin’s 49-goal season, hitting 48 in 2023. Whereas enjoying on a Nashville workforce final season that was all over he nonetheless logged heavy minutes, sturdy possession numbers, and prime utilization at each even power and on the facility play. The problem now’s alternative. With Stamkos and Marchessault within the fold for a full season, each high-volume shooters, Forsberg’s slice of the offensive pie may shrink. He’s nonetheless in a chief spot to provide and has the ending instruments, however cracking 50 will take a bump in effectivity and a extra dynamic Preds offense. Because it stands, 50 feels extra like a best-case final result than a secure wager.
7. Nikita Kucherov – Tampa Bay Lightning
Kucherov has finished nearly all the things offensively, besides hit 50 objectives. He has averaged 38 per 82 video games over the previous three seasons with elite effectivity (13–14% S%) on 3.5 photographs an evening. The quantity is stable, and his energy play utilization is huge, however he’s nonetheless extra setup artist than finisher. With Level and Guentzel driving shotgun, each succesful scorers, Kucherov typically defers. For him to crack 50, he would want to both shoot extra, risking fewer touches for his linemates, or rating extra off the push, but when you’re going to wager on somebody to hit that mark, Kucherov could possibly be that man.
6. Jack Eichel – Vegas Golden Knights
Eichel is in his prime, and Mitch Marner‘s arrival could be the push he must shift from playmaker to finisher. The quantity is there, however it is usually about effectivity. His profession taking pictures proportion sits at 10.9%, so to hit 50 objectives, he’ll want both a full 82 video games at that shot tempo or a bump to the 14–15% vary. He has hit 36 earlier than, on a 15.9% clip in Buffalo. This previous season he had 28 objectives and 94 factors with a 70% IPP, displaying he’s nonetheless wired to create. Nonetheless, with Marner feeding him, Eichel may lastly lean into ending.
5. William Nylander – Toronto Maple Leafs
Nylander has been knocking on the door with 42-goal averages over his final three full seasons, together with a 45-goal marketing campaign this previous season the place he shot a career-high 17.7%. That type of effectivity is spectacular, however robust to repeat. His utilization is robust: over 19 minutes an evening and a giant function on Toronto’s deadly energy play, the place he potted 12 objectives final yr. The true barrier? His 5v5 scoring is just not fairly as sharp, and his shot quantity has not hit the elite tier. On a Leafs squad with out Marner, there’s a chance for extra scoring possibilities to come back Nylander’s manner.
4. Jack Hughes – New Jersey Devils
Hughes is firing at an elite clip, averaging over 4 photographs per recreation for the previous three seasons (336, 274, 229 SOG). His 10.6 photographs/60 final yr put him top-10 league-wide, precisely the place you need your 50-goal hopeful hanging out. The catch? Properly clearly, his taking pictures metrics might want to see an uptick, however the true hole is on the facility play the place he has solely put up six to 9 objectives per season, whereas true 50-goal guys are normally banking 15+. Oh, there may be one different tiny problem: Well being. Hughes has not performed a full 82-game season but. If he’s hitting 50, he most likely wants at the very least 78 wholesome video games and a heater.
3. Kyle Connor – Winnipeg Jets
Connor stays probably the most dependable snipers within the league. He flirted with a close to 50 purpose efficiency earlier than with 47 objectives in 2021, and continues to drive offense on a prime line constructed round his strengths. He handles a ton of zone entries, shoots typically, and his PPIPP sits at a stable 63.6%. His quantity usually lands within the 260–275 shot vary, simply shy of the 300+ mark that usually unlocks a 50-goal yr. He has cleared 30 objectives each full season since 2017, with a gradual 15% taking pictures clip. Coming off a 97-point season with the identical effectivity numbers suggests there isn’t any actual regression coming.
2. Tage Thompson – Buffalo Sabres
Tage Thompson has already proven he can flirt with 50 objectives, now the query is whether or not he can lastly seal the deal. He bounced again sturdy final season with 44 objectives in 76 video games (47-goal tempo) on an 18.2% taking pictures clip. That’s excessive, positive, however not outrageous given his launch and shot choice. The yr earlier than? Simply 29 objectives with comparable quantity, dragged down by an 11.8% S%. The ability play is the place he can actually tip the scales, he’s nonetheless getting stable minutes there, and some extra conversions may push him excessive. The one actual hurdle is Buffalo’s inconsistency but when issues click on, he has an actual shot.
1. Kirill Kaprizov – Minnesota Wild
Kaprizov is completely a top-tier candidate to hit the 50-goal mark and there’s a actual case to be made that it only a matter of well being at this level. He has put up 47, 40, and 46 objectives over the previous three full seasons, averaging an ideal 50-goal tempo over 82 video games. Final yr? He was monitoring for 112 factors and 50 objectives if not for the time missed. He’s producing all the things you need: elite shot, heavy utilization, energy play time, excessive involvement, and robust underlying metrics. Truthfully, it is nearly availability now. If he performs 75+ video games and maintains even his present effectivity, he doubtless breaks 50.
Thanks for studying! See you subsequent week! For extra fantasy hockey content material and evaluation, comply with me on X @Punters_hockey. When you’ve got any questions on your workforce or a commerce? My DMs are at all times open, joyful to assist!
