The Luckiest and Unluckiest Groups in NBA Draft Lottery Historical past

Just a few quick months in the past, the NBA world was shocked by one of the crucial unlikely NBA draft lottery ends in latest reminiscence. The Dallas Mavericks had the eleventh greatest odds however jumped up, all the way in which as much as the primary total decide. In every other 12 months, that is noteworthy however an additional wrinkle elevated this to a front-page information story.

The Dallas Mavericks earned the primary total decide within the 2025 NBA draft after their crew imploded midway by means of the season. Kyrie Irving tore his ACL. Anthony Davis was out and in of the lineup all season. Most significantly although, the Mavericks traded their younger star Luka Doncic to the Los Angeles Lakers for – arguably – pennies on the greenback.

This commerce shocked the NBA world. Not solely did the Lakers purchase Luka for a decrease than anticipated price, but it surely’s additionally the Lakers. Is it a coincidence that one of the crucial thrilling younger stars simply occurred to finish up being traded to the league’s preeminent franchise? That this occurred simply as NBA rankings have been sagging is curious. That the one crew that the Mavericks seemingly contacted is curious. That the Mavericks then ended up with the #1 total decide and drafted Cooper Flagg, a participant anticipated to be a generational expertise, is curious!

Whether or not the Mavericks gained the draft lottery by luck or by the commissioner’s sleight of hand, the franchise added a major worth to its ledger by pure luck. On this article we have a look at which different groups have been significantly fortunate or unfortunate because the inception of the NBA draft lottery in 1985.

The Luckiest Groups in NBA Draft Lottery Historical past

What’s luckier transferring up from eighth to 2nd or from third to 1st? The proper technique to examine these two occasions is to take a look at how a lot additional ‘worth’ a crew positive aspects by transferring up. This earlier article we wrote estimates the relative worth of every draft decide. These charts allow us to calculate how a lot worth a crew positive aspects when it strikes up within the draft. Aggregating the entire worth gained and misplaced by transferring up or down within the draft lets us decide which groups have been the luckiest in NBA draft lottery historical past.

In our system, 100 factors is the worth of a #1 total decide. So, gaining 100 factors is the equal of being gifted the #1 total decide in return for nothing. As one other instance, the eighth decide is value 50 factors so transferring from eighth within the lottery to 1st is a +50 level achieve. 100 factors of worth is equal to transferring from eighth to 1st twice.

With this technique, listed here are the highest 5 luckiest groups in NBA draft lottery historical past.

The luckiest crew in NBA draft lottery historical past is the Philadelphia 76ers. Simply primarily based on the way in which the lottery balls have been chosen, the 76ers have primarily been gifted a #1 total decide and a #11 total decide. Whereas the 76ers are maybe shocking, most individuals’s first intuition when contemplating the luckiest NBA draft lottery groups is the San Antonio Spurs.

Just like the Mavericks’ curious story this 12 months, when the Spurs have gained the lottery it has been noteworthy. Everybody remembers when the Spurs snagged Tim Duncan the one 12 months The Admiral went down. Simply over twenty years later, the Spurs lucked into Victor Wembanyama. One transcendent massive, and one that appears able to transcend. The Spurs luck is unquestioned within the draft. The rationale the Sixers beat out the Spurs is due to amount. When the Spurs moved up within the draft, they bought generational skills so they’re fairly memorable. The Sixers have simply moved up rather a lot.

An honorable point out for luckiest groups ever are the Cleveland Cavaliers. Not solely did they win the rights to draft LeBron James – a prime 2 participant by mainly any superior metric – they gained a championship on the backs of unimaginable lottery luck within the 2010s. They bought Kyrie Irving on a #1 total pic in 2011 instantly after LeBron let. Then, when he was set to return BAM! They win two extra lotteries (lets not discuss what they did with the 2013 and 2014 #1 picks. Wiggins was fantastic…Bennett although…). Fairly some luck!

The Luckiest Groups in NBA Draft Lottery Historical past

Utilizing the identical metric, we will calculate the groups which have had the worst lottery luck. Consistently with an opportunity at an incredible decide, however consistently falling under expectations. Does anybody on this checklist shock you?

The Minnesota Timberwolves are the crew the draft lottery has been least pleasant too. They’ve persistently moved down within the draft. This has occurred persistently sufficient that it’s mainly as if the Timberwolves had the #1 total decide some 12 months and the league determined to take it away.

Whereas the Pistons have been in a position to overcome their draft adversity, the subsequent two groups haven’t. Till lately, the Knicks have been dangerous for many years. Solely by means of buying Carmelo exterior the draft did they’ve a run. Equally, the Grizzlies have by no means fairly been the face of the NBA. Maybe persistently shedding worth through the lottery is dangerous for enterprise, however what do I do know?

The final crew on this checklist is fascinating. The Miami Warmth have had marked success regardless of their obvious dangerous lottery luck. Is that this proof that “Warmth Tradition” is actual? That they win with arduous work and who they’re given somewhat than who they’ve been fortunate sufficient to draft? Extra probably, it’s a product of South Seaside being a gorgeous free agent draw to the tune of LeBron James, Chris Bosh, and Jimmy Butler in recent times.