Let us count the ways college football is treating us this weekend:
No. 6 Oregon vs. No. 3 Penn State.
No. 4 LSU vs. No. 13 Ole Miss.
No. 17 Alabama vs. No. 5 Georgia.
Week 5 odds are littered with great games, and that includes the first one out of the gate on Saturday, as an under-the-radar USC outfit travels to Illinois in FOX’s Big Noon Kickoff.
“This college football weekend is loaded with marquee matchups. Bettors are excited to bet on these matchups,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said.
Bookmakers and sharp bettors offer their insights on all the big games, as we dive into college football Week 5 betting nuggets.
This page may contain affiliate links to legal sports betting partners. If you sign up or place a wager, FOX Sports may be compensated. Read more about Sports Betting on FOX Sports)
Top 10 Big Ten
Oregon is 4-0 straight up (SU) and 3-1 against the spread (ATS), doing well for bettors so far this season. Penn State is 3-0 SU but at 0-3 ATS, it hasn’t covered the spread yet. Part of the issue there: The Nittany Lions have been massive favorites of 42 points or more in all three games.
That’s a lot of points to cover, even against inferior competition. For that matter, Oregon has been favored by at least 26.5 points in all four of its games.
Both teams take a huge step up this week. Caesars Sports opened Penn State as a 3.5-point home favorite. The line dipped to -3 on Monday and remained at -3 as of Wednesday night.
“There’s a lot of two-way action so far on the spread,” Feazel said. “And there are a lot of people taking Oregon on the moneyline. They see value there.”
Public bettors in particular might find a Ducks’ outright win more attractive than betting the point spread. Oregon moneyline is around +145 at Caesars, meaning a $100 bet would profit $145 (total payout $245) if the Ducks pull off the modest road upset in this 7:30 p.m. ET kickoff.
Worth noting: Penn State is rested, coming off a bye in Week 4.
College Football Rocks On FOX
No. 21 USC is quietly off to a 4-0 SU start (2-2 ATS), but it’s gotten louder with Jayden Maiava now in the thick of Heisman Trophy odds. The Trojans quarterback is the +1400 co-sixth choice at Caesars.
The Heisman race got more interesting this week with the news that Oklahoma QB John Mateer — the favorite last week — suffered a broken hand and could be out a month. That helped improve the stock of Maiava and others, including the new favorite, Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza (+750).
It could get louder still for Maiava if he has a strong showing in USC’s toughest game yet, at No. 23 Illinois. The Illini are looking to bounce back in the Big Noon Kickoff, after getting absolutely smoked 63-10 at Indiana last week.
With that blowout firmly in mind, Caesars opened Southern Cal as a 6.5-point road favorite. The spread briefly got to -7 on Monday, then returned to -6.5, where it remained Wednesday night.
“Everybody had the same thoughts last week: Illinois was a little bit overrated,” Feazel said, noting the Illini were ranked ninth in the AP poll, while Indiana was No. 19 at the time. “I don’t think any oddsmaker in town had Illinois in the top 10. And it was all Indiana money last week.”
That trend continues so far in Week 5, even with a lengthy road trip and a noon ET start for the Trojans.
“What we’re seeing is one-way action on USC and the Over. Bettors remember what they saw last week,” Feazel said.
The total opened at 59 and briefly topped out at 61 Wednesday morning, before backing up a notch to 60.5.
On Campus Sharp Side
College football betting expert Paul Stone is looking for Notre Dame (1-2 SU and ATS) to keep the momentum rolling from a 56-30 rout of Purdue last week. The Fighting Irish travel to Arkansas (2-2 SU/1-3 ATS) for a noon ET kickoff Saturday.
And Stone is getting the best of the number at the moment.
Notre Dame opened as high as -6.5 at some sportsbooks but made its way down as low as -4 on Tuesday. As of Wednesday night, the Irish were consensus 4.5-point favorites.
Notre Dame is off to a slow start and certainly can’t afford another loss. But Stone noted the two losses were by a combined four points to schools currently in the top 10 — No. 2 Miami and No. 9 Texas A&M.
Stone sees the Irish keeping their dwindling College Football Playoff hopes alive with a much-needed win over a quality opponent on the road.
“Arkansas’ defense just gave up a total of 73 points and 964 yards in back-to-back defeats to Ole Miss and Memphis,” Stone said. “I see Notre Dame’s running back tandem of Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price having a big day on the ground against the Razorbacks.
“I think the Irish win by a touchdown or more in Fayetteville.”
Where are Ohio State, Georgia in Joel Klatt’s conference tiers?
SEC Showdowns
Saturday also features back-to-back SEC matchups, both with potential long-term consequences for the conference title and the College Football Playoff.
First on deck: No. 4 LSU vs. No. 13 Ole Miss at 3:30 p.m. ET. Both teams are 4-0 SU, with the Tigers 2-2 ATS and the host Rebels 3-1 ATS.
Caesars opened this contest a pick ‘em and got to Ole Miss -2.5 on Monday morning. But the line has been steady at Rebels -1.5 since early Wednesday morning.
“There’s just a slight edge toward Ole Miss,” Feazel said. “We’re actually seeing more LSU action at the moment. But I expect a little more two-way action as we get closer to game time.”
At 7:30 p.m. ET, it’s No. 17 Alabama vs. No. 5 Georgia between the hedges in Athens. The Bulldogs are 3-0 SU, but 0-3 ATS, while Alabama is 2-1 SU and ATS. Both teams are coming off byes.
The Crimson Tide can’t afford another loss, after falling 31-17 as 13.5-point favorites at Florida State in Week 1. But early bettors aren’t intrigued by Bama.
“Action-wise, it’s one-way so far on Georgia. We’re not seeing that same Bama action that we’ve seen in years past,” Feazel said. “I expect to see a little buyback on Alabama, especially if the line goes to 3.5.”
I Like Big Bets And I Cannot Lie
As of Wednesday night, there’s little to report in the way of major wagers on college football Week 5 odds. But how about this play at Caesars, in the aftermath of Indiana hanging a 63-burger on Illinois last week:
- $1,624 Indiana +4000 to win the College Football Playoff
The Eleventh-ranked Hoosiers made the CFP final yr however bowed out to Notre Dame within the first spherical. As spectacular as Indiana’s Week 4 win was, it’s going to take so much simply to get to the Large Ten title recreation, by no means thoughts successful a CFP championship.
The Hoosiers (4-0 SU/3-1 ATS) are 7.5-point favorites at Iowa this week, however Kinnick Stadium is usually a powerful place to play. Plus, Indiana is at No. 6 Oregon on Oct. 11 and at No. 3 Penn State on Nov. 8.
If in some way Curt Cignetti has a whole lot of magic up his sleeve and makes a nationwide title look, then the bettor baggage $64,960 revenue (complete payout $66,584).
A minimum of that Indiana guess is in much better form than this one: $115,000 on Clemson +1300 to win the CFP. That wager was made at BetMGM in late June.
Clemson was a 17.5-point Week 4 residence favourite vs. Syracuse and received bounced 34-21. The Tigers are actually 1-3 SU, and also you want the Hubble Telescope to see them on the CFP oddsboard, the place they’re +50000 lengthy pictures. That’s 500/1 in easier-to-read phrases.
It’s most likely fairly secure to say that $115,000 can be a donation to the home. However concern not. Concurrently the Clemson wager, the bettor fired $300,000 on Texas +500 and $200,000 on Penn State +750 to win the CFP.
If both of these groups get the job finished, then that high-roller will make up for the Clemson mistake many instances over.
Patrick Everson is a sports activities betting analyst for FOX Sports activities and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He’s a distinguished journalist within the nationwide sports activities betting area. He’s based mostly in Las Vegas, the place he enjoys {golfing} in 110-degree warmth. Comply with him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
Need nice tales delivered proper to your inbox? Create or log in to your FOX Sports activities account, and observe leagues, groups and gamers to obtain a customized e-newsletter day by day!
What did you consider this story?
advisable
Get more from the College Football Follow your favorites to get information about games, news and more
