Welcome again to Discussion board Buzz, the place I peruse the DobberHockey Boards and weigh in on lively, closely debated, or in any other case related current threads, reminding people simply how nice a useful resource the Boards are. Almost something could be lined right here, aside from trades and signings, which often get their very own separate write-ups on the primary website and are additionally usually lined within the subsequent day’s Ramblings, or questions which can be particular to wage cap points, which is the area of the weekly Capped column. To entry the precise discussion board thread on which a query is predicated, click on on the “Subject” for that query.
As is now turning into custom, I am going to begin the column with a nod to the sadly now dormant “Who am I?” thread within the Boards the place somebody considered an actual life hockey participant or persona, who may be from the previous or current, male or feminine, within the NHL or not, and so they give clues to assist individuals guess who it’s. You get to enter one guess per clue, and for those who guess accurately you consider the following participant, so it simply retains going indefinitely. To your enjoyment, here’s a “Who am I?” pattern. See what number of clues it takes so that you can guess who I’m.
CLUE #1 – I am a retired US-born ahead
CLUE #2 – Though American, I performed junior hockey within the WHL, the place I offered a glimpse of what would turn into my hallmark of scoring and grit
CLUE #3 – In almost each NHL season, my PIM complete was greater than double my level complete
CLUE #4 – However I positively wasn’t a “goon,” as I produced at a 50+ level price in almost each one among my NHL seasons
CLUE #5 – I represented the USA in worldwide competitors six instances, profitable gold as soon as on the World Championships and silver as soon as on the Olympics
CLUE #6 – I performed for some excellent groups, as in additional than half my seasons my workforce performed not less than 13 playoff video games
CLUE #7 – I received the Stanley Cup as soon as on my first workforce, and my second workforce I made it to the finals, solely to lose to my first workforce
CLUE #8 – Regardless of a 67 level collective scoring tempo in what can be my closing two NHL seasons, I used to be out of the NHL earlier than age 30 on account of concussions
CLUE #9 – I used to be traded from my first workforce to my second workforce in a deal that additionally featured a participant – coming from the opposite workforce – who’d turn into not solely a future NHL Fall of Famer but additionally an NHL Basic Supervisor
CLUE #10 – I used to be drafted within the Nineteen Nineties
CLUE #11 – The groups I performed for, so as, have been the Avs (together with, very briefly, after they have been the Nordiques) and the Kings
CLUE #12 – My initials are A.D.
So, who am I? Hopefully you figured it out. Examine the tip of the column to substantiate, or, if not, to seek out out who I’m. Now onto frequently scheduled Discussion board Buzz programming.
Subject #1 – In a ten Workforce Dynasty with beginning line-ups of 4C, 4LW, 4RW, 6D, 2Util, 3G, and classes of G(4 for forwards, 5 for defensemen), A(3 for forwards, 4 for defensemen), HIT(0.5), SOG(0.5), BLK(0.5), TK(0.5), a GM has the roster set forth under.They’ve been supplied Ryan Leonard for Mason McTavish. From a long run perspective, would it not make sense for them to do the commerce, or maintain McTavish?
C – Jack Eichel, Adam Fantilli, Joel Eriksson-Ek, Dylan Strome, Mason McTavish, Matty Beniers, Boone Jenner, Tyler Seguin
RW – Kirill Marchenko, Travis Konecny, Adrian Kempe, Drake Batherson, Luke Evangelista, Andre Burakovsky
LW – Jason Robertson, Brady Tkachuk, Morgan Geekie, Filip Forsberg, Andrei Svechnikov, Owen Tippett, Pavel Buchnevich
D – Moritz Seider, Noah Dobson, Alexander Nikishin, MacKenzie Weegar, Darnell Nurse, Dougie Hamilton, Drew Doughty, Neil Pionk, Gustav Forsling
G – Igor Shesterkin, Ilya Sorokin, Jordan Binnington, Jet Greaves
Minors – Axel Sandin-Pellikka, Beckett Sennecke, Marco Kasper, Igor Chernyshov, Jason Dickinson, Matt Savoie, Daniil However, William Horcoff, Bradley Nadeau, Ville Koivunen, Nick Lardis, Oliver Bonk, Scott Morrow, Radim Mrtka, David Reinbacher, Dmitri Simashev, David Jiricek, Luca Cagnoni, Sergei Murashov
It’s attention-grabbing that to this point McTavish has not thrived regardless of Anaheim having improved a lot offensively (now eighth finest in targets per sport, up from third-worst final season), particularly contemplating that the commerce of Trevor Zegras was purported to pave the best way for McTavish to turn into extra of a focus. But as an alternative, his TOI has dropped with all of the misplaced time being on the facility play, which makes a foul scenario worse. He’s additionally taking pictures much less by way of quantity, with out an uptick in SH%. That could be a double whammy and never what one desires to see, particularly with an OZ% of 56.6%, which might simply mark a profession finest. His scoring has barely fallen although, and his IPPs are according to previous seasons. The workforce can be taking pictures 9.9% with him on the ice, which is kind of first rate. Past that, a mere six of his 17 assists have been secondary, which is much too low, and his PDO is properly underneath 1000. In all, the image is painted of a participant who ought to stay a top-six fixture, however who’s unlikely to make huge strides until put in on PP1, or, given his dimension, till he will get nearer to sport 400 of his profession.
Leonard began with solely eight factors in 19 video games, that means since then he has been a degree per sport participant. What’s most spectacular about that’s him doing so regardless of a mean TOI per sport that’s barely over 14:00, though it has been ticking upward of late, particularly by way of PP time, the place he has been on PP1 greater than not. When taking a look at factors per 60 minutes, Leonard’s price is best than the likes of Tim Stutzle, Matthew Knies, Travis Konecny, Will Smith, Clayton Keller, Alex Ovechkin, and Dylan Larkin, to call only a few. Leonard’s SOG price and SH% are each cheap, and he is producing this properly regardless of an OZ% of simply 42.6%, exhibiting he isn’t in any respect being sheltered like many rookies whose OZpercents are within the higher 50s and even within the 60s. Taking a look at his commonest linemates, they positively don’t embody the most effective of the most effective on the Caps, making his achievements of late all of the extra spectacular. Not surprisingly, his IPPs are nice, at 70%+ each general and on the PP. A 12.1% workforce SH% at 5×5 is excessive when factoring in his OZ%; however of his 18 assists solely 5 have been secondary, for a price decrease than McTavish’s. This paints the image of a participant who drives offense and finds a option to issue into the scoring, even when confronted with the headwind of a low OZ%.
In sum, I feel McTavish has an opportunity to climb into the 60s for scoring price; nonetheless, Leonard is doing higher regardless of worse deployment and has wonderful metrics. I would 100% make this commerce.
Subject #2 – Who figures to be the most effective over the following 5 years in a factors solely keeper: Wyatt Johnston, Adam Fantilli, or Dylan Guenther?
The most important query mark among the many three is Fantilli. He is pacing for the same scoring price as final season regardless of a rise in TOI, particularly on the PP. And PP scoring is what makes Fantilli’s 2024-25 output so distinctive, as he managed to tally 32 targets with solely two approaching the PP and taking solely 2.3 SOG per sport, plus a complete of simply 4 PPPts. Are there any participant comparables for that feat? Not likely, as there are solely three different forwards who – courting again to 2000-01 – scored 30+ targets in one among their first two seasons by age 20 regardless of averaging lower than 2.5 SOG per sport: Anze Kopitar, Jonathan Toews, and Sean Monahan. However every of them had a double digit PPG complete. Out of 750+ situations of a ahead scoring 30+ targets since 2000-01, 4 had as few or fewer PPPts as Fantilli, however all of them have been each older and had extra NHL expertise. It is a comparable story in taking a look at those that had two or fewer PPGs. Seemingly he’s a unicorn so far as participant comparisons.
It’s positively a priority that he’s getting extra PP time, but his IPP on the PP really dropping from 50.0% final season to solely 33.3% this season. He is not producing higher regardless of an increase in OZ% from 59.5% to 67.9%. His general IPP is down as properly, whereas his secondary help price is on a par with final season. He’s taking pictures extra, averaging 2.7 SOG per sport versus 2.3, however his SH% has fallen to an extent that there’s not a ensuing profit. Though he isn’t set to hit his breakout threshold till towards the tip of the season, him not making any strides to this point is a little bit of a priority. It looks as if lofty expectations for Fantilli would possibly must be tempered; and in view of what he is finished to this point, he doubtless just isn’t the precise alternative amongst these three. The added uncertainty of a brand new coach brings an additional wrinkle to to desk as properly.
Is the right decide Johnston or Guenther? What’s spectacular about Guenther is his scoring price is regular regardless of a giant drop in PPPt tempo. He too is taking pictures extra; however in his case, it is led to a SH% achieve, which is encouraging. However he is but to see features in TOI general or on the PP, which on the one hand is a priority in that it may put a ceiling on his manufacturing, but on the opposite it could possibly solely get higher from right here. He additionally has been in a position to almost keep his scoring price although his OZ% has fallen from 65.7% to 50.5%, exhibiting he can rating with out being sheltered. Additionally, his general IPP is up, and now above the very key 70% mark I affiliate with gamers who’ve star potential. Past that, in some way simply two of his 16 assists have been secondary, which is an astonishingly low quantity. It could not shock me for Guenther to attain at a significantly increased price over the remainder of the season, and that if he in some way finishes this season under a degree per sport tempo for it to be the final time that happens.
Johnston is flourishing, having added over a full minute of TOI. His SOG price is monitoring to be the identical as final season although, and his SH% is 11.2%%, which is kind of excessive. Past that, it took him a mere 38 video games to succeed in 23 PPPts, whereas final season he completed with 25 in 82 video games. However his workforce SH% at 5×5 is ok, as is his secondary help price, and his IPPs are strong. The collective takeaway is Johnston is a driver of offense and finds a option to issue into scoring. However he isn’t more likely to see a lot, if any, features in TOI or PP TOI within the regular course, and his SH% is because of come again to earth. As such, he is doubtless extra of an 85-90 level man than the 95 level participant he’s now.
For sure Johnston has the upper flooring, based mostly not solely on what he is finished but additionally the workforce for which he performs. Guenther although has room for natural features, plus he is a yr youthful and on the cusp of hitting his 200-game breakout threshold. In circumstances like these, I choose the safer guess, which is Johnston; nonetheless, Guenther has dwelling run potential, so I may defend him as being the selection, particularly for groups which have already got plenty of dependable producers.
Subject #3 – For the rest of the 2025-26 season, who ought to rating probably the most factors: Seth Jarvis, Mats Zuccarello, or Roope Hintz?
Let’s begin with Zuccarello. He is missed a piece of time on account of harm, which isn’t nice besides that in 12 seasons since turning into an NHL common he is by no means had an occasion of multiple 10+ sport absence in the identical season. Previous outcomes don’t dictate future outcomes; however the reality he already received damage supplies some comfort. He additionally remains to be firmly entrenched on what’s now arguably among the many finest PP1s within the league with the addition of Quinn Hughes. He additionally stays tethered to Kirill Kaprizov, which is great gig.
Whereas Zuccarello’s TOI is properly down, his OZ% is markedly up, which is a pleasant comfort. However his general IPP is atypically excessive, as is his 5×5 workforce SH%, which is all of the extra attention-grabbing since his private SH% is an efficient bit decrease than his norm regardless of him taking pictures lower than he has in fairly some time. Collectively this paints an image of Zuccarello doubtless producing at a 75-80 level tempo over the rest of 2025-26.
As for Hintz, in contrast to a number of Dallas forwards he is seen solely a modest an increase in TOI, though he’s now on a PP1 that may be a true PP1, with all forwards on the market for not less than two-thirds of all PP minutes, which explains his PP scoring price on tempo to simply be a profession excessive. Nonetheless although, his general manufacturing isn’t any higher than it has been in current seasons. Why not? His SOG price and SH% are tremendous, however his general IPP is underneath 50%. That is doubtless as a result of presence of Mikko Rantanen, the emergence of Wyatt Johnston, and the resurgence of Miro Heiskanen. It has nowhere to go however up; nonetheless, his workforce SH% at 5x 5 is 12.8%, which is extra wish to fall than rise. His secondary help price is a bit low, however not obviously. When all is alleged and finished, he doubtless will produce similar to Zuccarello or maybe a bit decrease, though he doesn’t have the identical harm threat and is a decade youthful, so he could be the “safer” decide of the 2.
What of Jarvis? Like Zuccarello, he has primarily been enjoying on the highest line, however he has additionally been shuffled down the lineup since getting back from a brief harm absence. Moreover, with all due respect to Sebastian Aho, he is no Kaprizov. Jarvis is taking pictures greater than ever, but his SH% is correct in his typical vary. The place he is falling brief is in PP scoring, with a mere 5 PPPts on account of a PP IPP of 33.3%. In fact that’s unsustainably low; nonetheless, Jarvis has solely as soon as had a greater than 50% PP IPP, so it is unrealistic to anticipate it to skyrocket. Nonetheless, it has to rise, and, with that, his scoring. His 5×5 workforce SH% is low, particularly given a 65.5% OZ%, which is kind of excessive however seemingly his new regular. For him to nonetheless be scoring at a present tempo that’s in the identical neighborhood of the opposite two is kind of spectacular, and makes him – to me – the most effective guess to place up probably the most factors over the remainder of the season.
Subject #4 – In a 12 workforce keeper with classes of G, A, +/-, SOG, PPG, GWG, PPA, HITS, W, GAA, SV%, SHO and beginning line-ups of 3C, 3LW, 3RW, 4D, 2G, a GM has the next roster:
C – Leo Carlsson, Robert Thomas, Vincent Trocheck, Mason McTavish
LW –Juraj Slafkovsky, Matvei Michkov, Trevor Zegras, Valeri Nichushkin
RW – Ivan Demidov, Will Smith, J.T. Miller, Zach Hyman
D – Matthew Schaefer, Alexander Nikishin, Zeev Buium, Victor Hedman
G – Jeremy Swayman, Yaroslav Askarov, Brandon Bussi, Jacob Fowler
IR – Zayne Parekh, Connor Bedard
Ought to they commerce Thomas and Zegras for Elias Pettersson and Brandon Hagel? In case it issues, Pettersson is middle eligible like Thomas, whereas Hagel is LW eligible like Zegras.
That is an attention-grabbing workforce in that solely one among its skaters is age 26-30, particularly Thomas. The overwhelming majority are youthful, however there are additionally a number of who’re properly older. The vary from 26-30 is usually seen because the candy spot by way of a skater’s manufacturing. Even the goalies skew younger. For what it is price, three of the 4 gamers who can be concerned within the commerce are both age 26 or 27, whereas the opposite – Zegras – is almost 25. Nonetheless, I feel this workforce needs to be trying to unload a few of its older gamers, poising it for years of success. In fact if it isn’t a real dynasty the place all are saved, then that may be a completely different story, as even when the older gamers are usually not amongst these saved chances are high some youthful gamers would must be misplaced as properly.
The place the place the workforce has the best share of older gamers is RW; nonetheless, none of those that’d be concerned within the commerce has eligibility at RW, so that isn’t an element both. As such, I consider this can be a commerce which can boil down as to whether what can be obtained in return can be assuredly higher than what can be traded away.
I lined Zegras in my mailbag final week. What he is finished this season has firmly (re)established him as a real prime line participant. He additionally has room to enhance given his TOIs and lack of PP time as in comparison with different elite gamers. Thomas has taken a giant step again this season, though we do have to do not forget that he had 45 factors in his final 30 video games in 2025-26; so he would possibly simply be a participant who takes some time to hit his stride, sort of like how Kevin Fiala was once. He too is a locked-in prime liner but additionally may realistically see features in TOI each general and on the PP, particularly since regardless of his gradual begin his IPPs are nonetheless excellent.
EP40 stays tantalizing, but is on tempo to majorly disappoint as soon as once more. His struggles can now not be blamed on J.T. Miller, each by way of the locker room and hurting Pettersson with respect to deployment. Actually, his TOIs mirror these of his 102 level marketing campaign in 2022-23, with the large distinction although being SOG, as he is at 2.0 versus 3.2 in 22-23. His general IPP is on tempo to lower for the third straight season, and his 5×5 workforce SH% is poised to be the second worst of his profession. Low IPP and 5×5 workforce SH% is a foul mixture, and cuts once more him to rising to prior heights, because the expertise should still be there, however seemingly the hassle just isn’t. A commerce might spark him, but it surely’s not clear that may occur given his cap hit, nor whether or not it will certainly matter.
Hagel began 2025-26 very gradual, however has renormalized. His days on PP1 look like over, however contemplating he solely had 11 PPTs all final season, and is on an analogous tempo for 2025-26, that may not be as unhealthy is it will be for many, particularly since in some way, regardless of it, his OZ% his risen from a really low 42.9% to 53.1%, which is for positive a internet optimistic. His 5×5 workforce SH% is correct in his regular vary, and his secondary help price is low even for him. His IPPs are very excessive, though that doubtless is a results of now not being on a line with Nikita Kucherov, and, when coupled together with his workforce SH% and 5×5, recommend he not solely drives offense however finds a option to issue into scoring. I can see him creeping upward to the identical 90 level degree as final season by the tip of 2025-26.
So far as different classes past scoring, none of those guys are hitters, and solely Hagel is a excessive quantity shooter. Hagel is also a really plus participant, whereas Thomas and Zegras are inclined to hover round even, and Pettersson has turn into a double digits minus participant of late. Taking a look at this as an entire, Hagel doubtless has the best flooring, whereas Thomas and Zegras are doing properly and will actually thrive in the event that they acquired extra TOI. EP40 is an enigma, with sky excessive potential, however much less more likely to really fulfill that potential once more with every passing season. My typical rule is do not make a commerce until it’s a clear win, which I am unable to say this might be. So I would stand pat.
Subject #5 – In a 12 workforce keeper with defenseman scoring of Targets = 2 factors (+1point if it is a PPG or GWG), Assists = 1 level, +/- =-1 level or +1 level, a GM can presumably purchase Thomas Harley or Mikhail Sergachev. Each can be a keeper, however who’d be higher over the following three seasons?
One factor that’s essential to notice is there are not any main defenseman prospects for both workforce. What that implies that even past how a lot they’re paid, is it is unlikely both of them can be pushed down the depth chart inside three years.
Sergachev is for sure Utah’s “the man” defenseman. That’s nice insofar as he’s the PP1 QB and skates for roughly 25 minutes per sport; however his OZ% is on tempo to drop for a 3rd straight season, and be under 50% for the primary time in his profession. Whereas his “the man” function has many advantages, that isn’t one among them. It additionally just isn’t serving to him in +/-, the place he’s poised to complete minus once more, though not less than he has not turn into extra minus as his OZ% has shrank, which is a little bit of a silver lining. And though his PP1 spot is seemingly cemented, he isn’t seeing features in his PP scoring price. However he is not doing poorly both, as his PP TOI ranks him eighth amongst defensemen, together with his PPPt complete rating him ninth. It’s doable although that as Utah continues to enhance Sergachev sees a direct profit.
In distinction, Harley performs for a workforce that’s already fairly good and excessive scoring. Though many felt he’d outplayed Miro Heiskanen sufficient to displace Heiskanen on PP1 and turn into extra of a focus, that has not occurred, with Heiskanen remaining “the man” for Dallas. The result’s Harley getting PP scraps, hurting his manufacturing. Harley’s IPPs nonetheless are higher than final season, but his secondary help price and workforce scoring at 5×5 are usually not low, neither is his OZ%, making it so he isn’t more likely to see enormous features from his level per each different sport scoring price, maybe topping out at a 50 level price. Positive – Heiskanen may have one other “off” season the place Harley will get to be put right into a place to succeed; nonetheless, very like Brent Seabrook when Chicago had Duncan Keith, or Kevin Shattenkirk when St. Louis had Alex Pietrangelo, it isn’t reasonable to see him with the ability to take the reins from Heiskanen.
I assumed this could be a more durable choice. However the alternative is most positively Sergachev.
Subject #6 – In a ten Workforce, preserve 8, factors solely cap league with 20 participant rosters (12F, 6D, 2G), who’s the most effective ahead to personal: Andrei Svechnikov, Quinton Byfield, Tomas Hertl, or Jared McCann?
If this can be a keep-eight, that will imply – in concept – the participant would must be among the many finest 80 within the NHL provided that there are ten groups. Though it was not made clear whether or not this workforce would need/want this participant to be a keeper, I am going to presume it’s not less than a chance.
I am ruling out Hertl on the outset. He is on a PP1 that sees heaps of PP time, however his TOI just isn’t nice and a sample has emerged the place he isn’t enjoying with the most effective of the most effective on Vegas, making it tough to see him bettering on his present scoring tempo. It additionally doesn’t assist that his TOI is underneath 17:30 per sport, and he is taking pictures greater than he has ever in his profession but regardless of this it isn’t paying dividends. He’s additionally the oldest of the 4 gamers. McCann missed a piece of time however has hit his stride and is doing what he does, which is put up factors regardless of low TOI. His SH% is excessive for him although, and he too just isn’t skating at ES with prime tier expertise. Plus, though he too is on PP1, for Seattle which means taking the ice for not even 60% of its man benefit minutes. All issues thought-about, McCann is not significantly better than Hertl, and never the selection both.
That leaves Byfield and Svechnikov. Byfield remains to be a season away from his “huge man” 400-game breakout threshold; nonetheless, one would suppose he’d have proven some indicators of enchancment because it nears. As an alternative, he is faring worse, though in his protection his SH% is simply too low, and he tends to do higher within the second half. And though it’s also encouraging to see him above 20:00 per sport in TOI, ample PP time has but to materialize, but his SH responsibility continues to climb. His workforce SH% at 5×5 is likewise too low at 7.0%, as is his secondary help price at 31.6%. But I would really feel lots higher if his IPPs have been increased, as that will recommend he’ll make main features as soon as his metrics renormalize. However he has not proven a nostril for scoring this season, nor previously, and that’s positively troublesome. Though previous outcomes are usually not essentially indicative of the longer term, I do fear that nearly no facilities as tall and heavy as him have been in a position to succeed, or even when they’ve they typically encountered harm points. There are sufficient seeds of doubt that Byfield doubtless just isn’t the selection both.
Svechnikov’s scoring price remains to be worse than the 70-75 level price it had been for a number of seasons, besides when you think about he began 2025-26 with zero factors in his first eight video games, that means he has produced at almost a degree per sport price ever since. Whereas his SOG price has not climbed to prior heights, it’s on tempo to be his finest since when he was producing within the 70s. He is additionally doing this with what can be a profession low SH%, and with basically all his metrics, from workforce SH% at 5×5, secondary help price, OZ%, and IPPs, monitoring together with his norms. It could be that he’s experiencing his “huge man” breakout later than anticipated, plus in contrast to Byfield he nonetheless has room to see features in TOI. I like Svech right here by a fairly huge margin.
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THE ANSWER TO WHO THE PLAYER IS……….Adam Deadmarsh!
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Questions for Mailbag column wanted
The upcoming version of my month-to-month mailbag nonetheless has room for extra questions, which you’ll be able to ship me by both non-public messaging “rizzeedizzee” through the DobberHockey Boards, or emailing [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the topic line.
