With the NHL on break for over the following couple of weeks and the roster freeze in impact, there is a chance to free-wheel these Ramblings a bit. For right this moment, I need to assessment two gamers which are having breakout seasons in Josh Doan and Darren Raddysh, and whether or not they’re ‘for actual’ or whether or not fantasy managers ought to put together themselves for a downturn.
Particular person participant and/or crew information is from Evolving Hockey and monitoring information is from All Three Zones. All charts are my very own, with the pink and blue dotted strains exhibiting the common of the precise stat being mentioned.
Josh Doan (Buffalo Sabres)
With 18 objectives and 21 assists up to now, Doan is a real risk for 25 objectives, 30 assists, two pictures per recreation, and one hit per outing. That may be a superb multi-cat season, particularly for somebody who tallied simply 12 objectives and 16 assists for his or her total profession earlier than this season. He has been rewarded with a seven-year extension from the Sabres, so he’ll be round for some time, and it is value determining what the upside is right here.
The issue, in fact, is that Doan is not a man with a variety of NHL expertise (119 video games throughout three years and no season with at the very least 60 video games performed but). Such is the character of a breakout participant, however it ought to give us a little bit of pause earlier than we over-estimate how good he will be. Simply so we’re clear, I used to be a fan of Doan’s in Utah and thought he may very well be the largest winner of the commerce that despatched him to Buffalo.
First, I wished to see the place Doan stands offensively taking a look at historic comps. To try this, we’ll use Evolving Hockey’s Fee-Adjusted Plus/Minus. For anybody unfamiliar, it’s a statistical methodology that tries to account for teammates, opponents, zone begins, and extra, to see what a participant’s true contributions are to their crew. On this occasion, we’re taking a look at anticipated goals-for (xGF) play-driving in prior seasons to search out comparable performances to Doan’s throughout his age 22-23 campaigns. After that, we’re in search of comparable gamers by factors per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. Going again to 2007, listed below are the comparable seasons to Doan’s final two years:
The overlapped names up prime are Jeff Carter (2007-09) and Michael Grabner (2010-12), and the overlapped names under them are Sean Couturier (2015-17) and Chris Kreider (2013-15). We then see Brendan Gallagher, Brandon Dubinsky, and Jesse Puljujarvi.
Amongst all these gamers, probably the most beneficiant comp can be Carter, who had six seasons of at the very least 60 factors, one season of 84 factors, and 4 30-goal efforts. Nonetheless, Carter and Doan aren’t actually that comparable by shot quantity proper now as Carter’s price of 5-on-5 shot makes an attempt throughout his age-22 and age-23 seasons was 24% greater than Doan’s. There’s a distinction between being a participant who can threaten for 30 objectives, which it appears Doan can/will, and being a participant who can frequently rating 30 objectives, which is Carter’s degree. Doan taking part in in a higher-scoring setting than Carter did within the 2010s will assist, however that additionally helps everybody else.
The opposite distinction is in hit charges. Doan hits way more (3.7 hits/60) than Grabner, Couturier, and Carter did (all underneath 2.0 hits/60), and far lower than Dubinsky, Kreider, and Puljujärvi (all between 5.5 and eight.5 hits/60) did.
Dubinsky, Carter, and Couturier have been all centres, Doan has significantly completely different hit charges from Kreider and Grabner, and Puljujärvi’s profession was doubtless shortened because of accidents. Factoring efficiency, place, and shot/hit quantity, Doan’s closest comparable participant on this listing is Gallagher.
That won’t seem to be a terrific comp for Doan as Gallagher has by no means had a 55-point season and has surpassed 25 objectives simply twice (and by no means reached 35 objectives). The distinction right here being that Gallagher by no means reached 17 minutes per recreation in any season. Doan, however, is at 16:07 this 12 months with Buffalo and 16:34 per recreation since Christmas. At 6’2, Doan is far greater than Gallagher and in a greater place to skate 18-19 minutes a recreation as quickly as subsequent season.
The one factor to be cautious of listed below are Doan’s assists. Of the wingers on that listing – Grabner, Kreider, Gallagher, and Puljujärvi – there is only one season of at the very least 30 assists (Kreider in 2023-24). Doan is pushing for 30 this season in the next scoring setting, however that is in all probability not a man who will flip into an everyday 30-goal, 50-assist risk like Brandon Hagel or Jason Robertson.
To strengthen that, let’s assessment the playmaking information from All Three Zones. We’re going to use scoring probability assists/60 at 5-on-5, or how typically a participant has a helper on a teammate’s scoring probability, and high-danger passes/60 at 5-on-5, that are accomplished passes throughout the slot or from behind the online. Amongst forwards with at the very least 200 tracked minutes during the last two seasons, listed below are the comps for Doan:
To make clear, that is the listing of names:
Eradicating the centres from that listing, we’re left with Koepke, Kolesar, Olofsson, Schwartz, Jarvis, and Heinen. Schwartz has a number of seasons with at the very least 30 assists however has by no means reached 40 assists. Jarvis is in his fifth season and will attain 30 assists this 12 months for the third season in a row, however he has by no means had greater than 35.
Doan appears each bit the participant who, beginning subsequent 12 months, generally is a common 30-goal, 35-assist risk, and push for 200 pictures and a success per recreation. The listing of comparable wingers talked about with the primary graphic all had (or are nonetheless having) prolonged, productive careers with the least amongst them being Grabner, and he had three seasons between 26-35 objectives. At his greatest, Doan would possibly push for an 80-point season – someplace close to 35 objectives and 45 assists – however that is his greatest, not a season-to-season expectation. He ought to have an extended, productive profession, however he appears extra ‘Brendan Gallagher with 15% extra ice time’ somewhat than The Subsequent Brandon Hagel.
Darren Raddysh (Tampa Bay Lightning)
Factoring draft place, has been no extra beneficial fantasy skater this season than Raddysh, who could not have even been drafted in some 12-team leagues with regular bench sizes however is a top-5 defenceman in a variety of codecs. His 17 objectives are third amongst blue liners and his 35 assists tie him for ninth. For a man who wasn’t an NHL common till the age of 27 and is averaging over 20 minutes for the primary time in his three seasons, it has been fairly the story.
What stands out instantly is Raddysh capturing 13.2% the place he had been a profession 5.5% shooter throughout 176 video games earlier than this season. Whereas that’s a direct pink flag, we do want some context right here, and it is that Raddysh has managed 0.48 particular person anticipated objectives per 60 minutes (ixG/60), tied for the fourth-highest price. As we would anticipate, the upper the speed of ixG/60 amongst defencemen, the upper the capturing share we often see:
It is not one-size-fits-all, however there is a clear upward development right here. Additionally, of the 9 different defencemen averaging at the very least 0.45 ixG/60 this season, none are capturing lower than 7.3% and so they common 9.7%. Raddysh is clearing these numbers by a great margin, however it additionally tells us that what he is accomplished on the ice has earned him an enchancment from the capturing percentages he managed up till this season.
What’s a real pink flag for his manufacturing is his Particular person Factors Proportion (IPP). That’s merely the speed at which a participant registers a degree when their crew scores a purpose with them on the ice. So, if a defenceman is on the ice for 100 crew objectives, and places up 30 factors, his IPP is 30%.
At this level of the season, Raddysh’s IPP is 59.8%, fifth amongst all defencemen. For reference, throughout the 2 seasons from 2023-2025, just one defenceman exceeded that price, and it was Cale Makar at 60.5%. Others are the highest of the leaderboard embrace Shea Theodore, Quinn Hughes, Adam Fox, and Zach Werenski all between 56-60%. For Raddysh to remain at this degree of purpose participation, he would should be among the many actually elite offensive defencemen within the league.
If we’ve got to check Raddysh to some prime defencemen, it is value investigating how he holds up in non-production classes. Let’s return to the monitoring information to see the place he measures by some key stats that we take a look at.
First, listed below are the comparable defencemen in 2025-26 by price of assists on teammate scoring possibilities (SCA/60), and general probability contributions (SCC/60, or assists plus particular person possibilities):
It’s good to see Matthew Schaefer‘s title there, however he is an 18-year-old rookie whereas Raddysh turns 30 years outdated later this month, so it is not fairly the identical factor. Aside from Schaefer, we see Matt Roy, Mike Matheson, Damon Severson, and Justin Faulk. Strong fantasy defencemen are included right here, however none are among the many elite within the NHL, and none have ever been elite at any level of their careers.
What about zone entries? Elite offensive defencemen typically are accountable for lots of zone entries – the top-20 this season contains Schaefer, Josi, Hughes, Werenski, and Makar – and the perfect carry the puck in typically – these 5 defencemen who have been simply named are all carrying the puck into the offensive zone on at the very least 50% of their entries. Right here is the place Raddysh stacks up by zone entries and share of entries carried in:
We see a few names having good seasons offensively in Jake Sanderson (66-point tempo) and Morgan Rielly (47-point tempo) however the next-best amongst them is Darnell Nurse, who has 18 factors. At greatest, it is a combined bag, and once more, not one of the names listed below are among the many absolute upper-tier of elite offensive defencemen (Sanderson could get there in a pair years, however he is not there but).
There may be one space the place Raddysh stands out and it is the puck-work within the defensive zone. His share of botched defensive zone retrievals mixed with share of zone exits failed is simply 28.6%. The league common is sort of 2x greater, and once we take a look at that, mixed with how typically he is accountable for any form of zone exit, it’s a fairly good listing:
For some readability, the rationale we take a look at botch/fail percentages is these with excessive percentages typically have a damaging impression on their crew’s purpose scoring. And for additional readability, listed below are the names listed:
That’s the most spectacular listing we have seen, and bodes properly for Raddysh, however it’s not misplaced on me that we see a teammate right here in D’Astous, the place we additionally noticed Emil Lilleberg within the graph on zone entries. Seeing one Tampa Bay teammate can simply be chalked as much as small-sample coincidence. Seeing two Tampa Bay teammates will get my spidey senses tingling. The success for Raddysh could have much more to do with teaching/crew setting than we’re giving credit score for.
General, Raddysh is 1 of 6 defencemen with at the very least 800 minutes and capturing over 13%, he has an IPP price that’s reserved for the elite offensive defencemen within the league, and not one of the monitoring information up to now this season reveals him among the many elite offensive defencemen. There’s a lot among the many superb blue liners, and possibly that is what Raddysh is: an excellent offensive defenceman who can put up 60-70 factors however is having what’s going to find yourself as the perfect season of his profession.
If Raddysh generally is a man who places up 60-70 factors, 200 pictures, and a success and a block per recreation, that’s in all probability a top-12 fantasy defenceman, however I would be very cautious about placing him in the identical dialog as Quinn Hughes and Cale Makar.
