In yesterday’s Ramblings, we lined adjustments in market share of photographs and anticipated targets amongst forwards. To get everybody up to the mark, the time period ‘market share’ refers back to the share of a workforce’s photographs or anticipated targets taken by a selected participant after they’re on the ice. So, if Cale Makar is on the ice for 1000 photographs for Colorado, and he personally takes 200 of them, his market share of photographs is 20%.
The explanation we do that is to seize gamers who will not be on the ice for lots of photographs, however take a giant share of them, indicating a diamond within the tough whose fantasy worth can rise in the best spot. It additionally helps seize expertise enhancements from gamers who would possibly in any other case go unnoticed.
At this time, we’re transferring to the blue line and market share adjustments amongst defencemen. We’re limiting the pattern to defencemen with a minimum of 1000 minutes throughout the 2023-25 seasons, and a minimum of 500 minutes so far in 2025-26 (a pattern of 159 defencemen). We’re utilizing knowledge from Evolving Hockey until in any other case indicated, market shares of each shot makes an attempt and anticipated targets. The pink and blue dotted strains are the limitations for being one commonplace deviation above/under common, which suggests a constructive change larger than the 84th percentile or a detrimental change worse than the 16th percentile.
As talked about yesterday, the adjustments talked about are relative adjustments, not uncooked adjustments. Meaning if a participant goes from 25% to 30% in market share of photographs, the rise is 20% ([30 – 25] / 25) and never 5% (30 – 25).
Rasmus Andersson (Vegas Golden Knights)
The biggest enchancment in market share of shot makes an attempt of the 159 defencemen in our pattern additionally had the third-largest enchancment in market share of anticipated targets. It’s Andersson, who began the season in Calgary and has since been traded to Vegas:
Importantly, there hasn’t been a lot change in his quick Vegas tenure in comparison with what he did with Calgary to begin the season: Andersson took 23.2% of shot makes an attempt in 48 video games with the Flames and that quantity is 22.6% in eight video games with Vegas. Throughout the prior two seasons, he took simply 17.6%.
For a body of reference right here, Zach Werenski took 23.9% of Columbus’ shot makes an attempt when he was on the ice throughout the 2023-25 seasons whereas Quinn Hughes took 22.9% of Vancouver’s makes an attempt. Andersson is at the moment at 23.2% between Calgary and Vegas this season, so if he can keep wherever across the 23% mark, it could put him amongst a few of the high offensive producers across the league.
This is not to say that Andersson can be as productive as Werenski or Hughes – they’re clearly in a better tier offensively. Moreover, the concern is {that a} 29-year-old defenceman going through unrestricted free company hasn’t genuinely modified his strategy to the sport however is making an attempt his hardest to get that one final, huge contract of his profession.
For now, anyway, it does present Andersson with a little bit of safety within the fantasy realm, even with out high power-play time. There’s greater than sufficient scoring amongst Vegas’ ahead group to push him near the 40-point/82-game plateau, he all the time blocks plenty of photographs, and the photographs per sport are up round 15% from the final couple of years. It ought to make him a helpful defenceman down the stretch, even with out that power-play time. The concern is that the shot increase is momentary and reverts to the place it normally is wherever he indicators this summer season.
Bowen Byram and Mattias Samuelsson (Buffalo Sabres)
When trying on the highest adjustments in market shares, we do not get plenty of pairs of teammates, particularly amongst defencemen. That is not the case this 12 months as we’ve a few Buffalo blue liners in Byram and Samuelsson. The previous is among the many 25 largest adjustments in market share of shot makes an attempt and top-3 by anticipated targets, and the latter is top-3 for largest enhance in market share of each shot makes an attempt and anticipated targets:
Simply 7 of 159 defencemen in our pattern have a rise in each areas that’s larger than the 84th percentile, and two of them come from the Sabres. This is perhaps one thing we count on from Byram, given his success earlier in his profession, however Samuelsson’s enhance is definitely not one we may have seen coming.
It is very important notice that Samuelsson’s enhance hasn’t been on the expense of Rasmus Dahlin, by far his most typical defence companion. Dahlin’s market share from 2023-25 was 20.1% and that has elevated to 21.9% this season. Meaning the forwards are taking far fewer of the photographs, but it surely hasn’t actually harm the workforce’s scoring. In reality, the workforce’s 60-minute scoring charge with Dahlin on the ice is up 10% from the final two years.
After all, the difficulty is what does this seem like as soon as Samuelsson stops taking pictures 14.5%? Will probably be fascinating to see if he begins deferring his photographs extra typically as soon as the pucks cease getting in as they’ve.
Byram’s market share of anticipated targets throughout the 2023-25 seasons was simply 9.1%, a charge that has jumped significantly to 12.6% this season. He nonetheless is not taking pictures very a lot – his charge of shot makes an attempt is within the backside 30% of the league’s common defencemen – however he’s getting extra high quality appears which has helped him to 14.1% taking pictures. That’s excessive for a defenceman, however he additionally shot 13.1% throughout 145 video games from 2021-2024, so this is not something new for him. If Byram can retain these taking pictures enhancements, he can be a perennial menace for 15 targets.
Tony DeAngelo (New York Islanders)
Although he technically did not qualify as his enchancment in market share of anticipated targets was a smidge under the brink, it’s price together with DeAngelo right here as a result of he was so shut:
Additionally it is price together with him due to the change in his state of affairs:
- By the top of December, he skated simply 17:55 per sport for the Islanders, earned simply 31.5% of the power-play time (from Frozen Instruments), and managed simply 13 factors in 40 appearances.
- Because the calendar turned to 2026, DeAngelo is averaging 20:39 per outing, has 38% of the power-play time, and has 11 factors in 18 video games.
That DeAngelo is taking a bigger share of photographs than normal, has a excessive enchancment in shot high quality, and is getting much more ice time during the last six weeks is a giant deal. The Islanders are usually not a high-scoring workforce however any defenceman skating 20-21 minutes with practically 40% of the power-play time and an even bigger share of the photographs is price holding tabs on. Frozen Instruments has DeAngelo rostered in fewer than 20% of Yahoo! leagues and fewer than 10% of ESPN leagues.
Alright, let’s gaze within the different route and discover defencemen with the most important market share declines. Now we have 10 defencemen with a drop in market share worse than the 16th percentile of each stats, and listed here are just a few of them.
Dmitry Orlov (San Jose Sharks)
It caught out to me that the most important decline in market share of shot makes an attempt, and second-largest drop in market share of anticipated targets, belongs to Orlov:
This is not nice for Orlov’s shot quantity as he is at the moment below 1.0 photographs per sport for the primary time since his rookie season in 2011-2012. Nonetheless, at even power, Orlov’s most-common ahead line mate is Macklin Celebrini (39.4% of ice time) with each William Eklund (30.4%) and Tyler Toffoli (25.5%) on the ice for over one-quarter of his EV TOI. If Orlov is taking pictures much less and as a substitute deferring to the likes of Celebrini, Eklund, and Toffoli, it is arduous to argue towards it. To that finish, he already has as many assists this season (22) as he had final season (in 21 fewer video games performed) and is on tempo to succeed in the 30-assist plateau for the primary time in his profession. With 1.0 blocks and 1.5 hits per sport, Orlov brings different peripherals, and if he is usually a 35-point man, that makes him playable in depth fantasy codecs.
Jonas Brodin and Jacob Middleton (Minnesota Wild)
Now we have one pair of teammates among the many 10 largest drops in each classes, they usually come from the Minnesota Wild in Brodin and Middleton:
The fascinating half right here is that they are not widespread defence companions, so these are guys on separate pairs taking far fewer photographs. As a workforce, Minnesota is producing 2% extra shot makes an attempt per minute in comparison with the prior two seasons, and your complete group of Minnesota defenceman are taking barely fewer photographs as a share of the workforce’s photographs than the prior two seasons. That leaves extra photographs for the forwards each by way of what the workforce is producing as an entire, and what’s left over when factoring how typically the blue line is taking pictures.
At 3.25 targets per 60 minutes, the Wild are scoring at their highest charge since 2021-22, and at a charge 14% larger than their two-year common previous to this season. There’s extra to it than Brodin and Middleton taking pictures much less, but it surely’s arduous to argue with the outcomes.
Gustav Forsling (Florida Panthers)
With one of many 5 largest drops in market share of each shot makes an attempt and anticipated targets, Forsling is probably probably the most negatively impacted defencemen in our group exterior of Orlov:
To this point this season, Forsling is averaging 8.4 shot makes an attempt per 60 minutes. In every of the prior 4 seasons with Florida, he averaged between 11.8 and 13.8 makes an attempt per 60 minutes, and his common throughout the 2023-25 seasons was 13.7. The workforce’s shot charge has plummeted with him on the ice, which is to be anticipated when shedding Aleksander Barkov and Matthew Tkachuk to prolonged accidents, but it surely’s not simply that the workforce is taking pictures much less typically general, however Forsling is taking pictures lots much less relative to the workforce’s decline.
Issues have not gotten higher since Tkachuk’s return to the lineup as Forsling is at 9.1 makes an attempt/60 minutes in these 10 current video games. Contemplating Forsling scored a minimum of 10 targets in every of the prior 4 seasons, and should not even attain 5 targets in 2025-26, this appears to be a misplaced season for him fantasy-wise.
Adam Larsson (Seattle Kraken)
The final identify we’ll focus on briefly is from the Kraken, a workforce within the thick of the playoff race within the West. He has seen the most important decline in market share of anticipated targets among the many 159 defencemen in our pattern, with one of many 25 largest declines in share of shot makes an attempt:
Not like the Minnesota guys, this is not actually serving to the Kraken offensively, a minimum of with Larsson on the ice – the workforce is scoring 2.2 targets per 60 minutes with him on the ice, a stark decline from the three.2 targets/60 final season, and a pair of.7 targets/60 throughout the prior two seasons. This hasn’t harm Larsson’s fantasy manufacturing as his 0.27 factors per sport are proper consistent with his 0.28 factors per sport throughout the earlier two campaigns, however he is additionally taking pictures a career-high 8.3%. As soon as that begins taking place, the shortage of goal-scoring with Larsson on the ice goes to vastly restrict his offensive output.
