Welcome again to The Journey, the place we observe how prospect growth curves translate into fantasy relevance. The Calder Trophy race is all the time fluid, formed as a lot by alternative and deployment as by pure expertise, and this season is not any totally different. With a number of elite prospects pushing into full-time NHL roles throughout positions, the race has shortly taken on a multi-lane really feel, with forwards driving many of the early buzz, defensemen making robust underlying circumstances, and goaltenders looming as potential disruptors if utilization breaks their manner.
Beneath is a fantasy-leaning check-in on the place the Calder dialog stands proper now, damaged down by place.
Ivan Demidov – Montreal Canadiens
Demidov has probably the most factors by a rookie this season. In some ways, this was predictable based mostly on his KHL manufacturing and the energy of his all-around recreation and compete stage, which gave him a smoother transition path than friends like Matvei Michkov. What stands out most is how shortly his underlying numbers have stabilized. His offensive impacts are already monitoring close to elite territory for a first-year participant, and his defensive metrics grade effectively above common in keeping with Evolving Hockey, reinforcing the concept that his utilization is constructed on belief moderately than circumstance.
Long run, Demidov initiatives as a perennial point-per-game winger whose fantasy worth is pushed by elite creativity and problem-solving potential with the puck. His palms, edge work, and manipulation of defenders enable him to generate offense with no need excellent construction round him, a trademark of true fantasy stars. If Montreal continues to deploy him as a focal offensive piece, he has the ceiling of a first-round fantasy asset, with robust help totals and constant power-play manufacturing. His flooring stays comparatively excessive as a result of his offense is just not dependent solely on velocity or bodily dominance, making him one of many most secure long-term projections on this rookie class.
Beckett Sennecke – Anaheim Geese
Identical to he jumped as much as be taken third general within the 2024 NHL Entry Draft, Sennecke jumped straight into the NHL this season. It was broadly anticipated that he would want time within the AHL after graduating from the OHL, however as an alternative he made the group out of camp and has improved steadily because the yr has progressed. He now sits second amongst rookies in factors, fueled by constant top-line proper wing deployment and common prime power-play utilization. That sort of alternative is never handed out evenly, and the truth that he has held onto it suggests the group already views him as a long-term fixture moderately than a brief experiment.
Along with his fast transition, Hockey Prospecting has seen his star potential skyrocket from 10% to 96% reflecting how dramatically his projection has shifted. Sennecke’s long-term worth comes from how cleanly his recreation interprets moderately than from explosive, highlight-driven upside. He processes the ice effectively, helps performs intelligently, and constantly finds comfortable areas that result in repeatable manufacturing, traits that ought to enable him to settle right into a secure prime line position for years to come back. If somebody thinks this rookie breakout is a mirage, ship them a commerce provide and reap the rewards.
Ryan Leonard – Washington Capitals
Leonard is presently fifth amongst rookies in factors, although his path to manufacturing has regarded totally different from gamers like Demidov and Sennecke. He has had a harder time securing constant prime deployment, partially due to the depth and established choices in Washington’s lineup. That context issues when evaluating his rookie output, as his position has fluctuated greater than a few of his friends. In line with HockeyStats.com, his even-strength offense and protection have each graded nearer to common to date, with a wins-above-replacement mark round 37%, suggesting there’s nonetheless room for development in how he drives play at five-on-five. Even so, it stays a stable first NHL season, significantly given the educational curve tied to his model of play.
Leonard’s long-term fantasy enchantment is rooted in his shot quantity, bodily engagement, and willingness to assault high-danger areas, traits that are inclined to age effectively no matter linemates. His purpose scoring ought to translate extra cleanly as he positive factors confidence and refines his ending, particularly if he continues to earn net-front or inside-lane power-play roles. Over time, he initiatives as a robust multi-category fantasy winger able to posting constant purpose totals with peripheral help. Whereas his help ceiling could not match elite playmakers, his year-to-year worth ought to stay secure, and in codecs that reward pictures, hits, or power-play manufacturing, his fantasy impression might finally outpace his real-life status.
Fraser Minten – Boston Bruins
Minten’s fantasy trajectory has been gradual, constructed on belief, utilization, and incremental offensive development moderately than uncooked scoring dominance, however he has quietly turn into a shock identify this season, presently sitting sixth in rookie scoring and thriving in Boston after arriving from Toronto. His puck safety, board play, and defensive consciousness make him a coach-friendly participant who continues to earn extra ice time, and whereas he as soon as projected as a protected middle-six choice, he’s starting to make a case for low-end top-six deployment relying on utilization. Long run, he nonetheless probably tops out as a 55–65 level participant, giving him a better flooring than many gamers drafted round him even when he by no means turns into a real fantasy star, which additionally makes this a possible sell-high window if one other supervisor believes a 70-plus level ceiling is coming.
Matthew Schaefer – New York Islanders
Schaefer’s long-term projection is anchored in his potential to stability offensive activation with reliability, and what he’s doing this season has pushed him firmly into Calder-favorite territory. Defensemen usually take longer to regulate to the NHL, but he has already turn into the go-to defender on Lengthy Island, sitting third in rookie scoring whereas standing as the one blueliner within the prime 12. He additionally leads Islanders defenders in time on ice by greater than three minutes, a transparent indicator of organizational belief. His puck motion, decision-making, and confidence leaping into performs have accelerated his growth past expectations, particularly contemplating he was seen in his draft season as extra of a well-rounded defender than a pure offensive driver.
There’s nonetheless room for development defensively, however the early offensive breakout suggests a ceiling larger than initially projected, and that ought to give reassurance that the remainder of his recreation will proceed to spherical out over time. What he’s undertaking as a rookie locations him among the many extra spectacular first-year seasons by a defenseman in current reminiscence. Schaefer now initiatives as a gradual power-play contributor with constant 60-plus level upside, providing robust long-term worth via heavy minutes and position safety moderately than risky scoring swings, making him an more and more engaging cornerstone asset in dynasty codecs.
Alexander Nikishin – Carolina Hurricanes
Nikishin’s long-term worth is tied to his bodily maturity and skill to deal with demanding minutes. Defensemen who can take up powerful matchups typically carve out lengthy NHL careers, however fantasy relevance will rely on whether or not his offense grows alongside that duty. His transition from the KHL has been stable to date. He isn’t being requested to hold a major position in Carolina, seeing largely bottom-pair minutes, but he has dealt with these assignments largely effectively. The utilization context is vital, he has not constantly been given robust teammates and has confronted comparatively manageable competitors, which displays a cautious growth method moderately than a scarcity of belief.
As he turns into extra snug and his even-strength protection continues to stabilize, the expectation is that his minutes will steadily improve, particularly contemplating he was a real number-one defenseman within the KHL. Nikishin initiatives as a secondary contributor whose worth can be extremely deployment-dependent. If he finally earns power-play seems to be, he might attain helpful level totals, however with out that chance, his ceiling could stay that of a robust real-life impression defender whose fantasy manufacturing trails his on-ice significance.
Zeev Buium – Vancouver Canucks
Buium’s long-term projection is constructed round elite processing velocity and puck distribution, traits that always translate into regular offense over time moderately than highlight-driven manufacturing. Defensemen who constantly make the best play underneath stress are inclined to accumulate worth quietly as their position expands, and his transition-focused recreation suits that mildew. Because the transfer to Vancouver, he has settled right into a significant position, logging the fourth-most even-strength time on ice amongst defenders whereas main the group in power-play utilization. The deployment alerts belief from the teaching workers, even when the uncooked manufacturing has not totally adopted but, and in keeping with HockeyViz, the Vancouver energy play has not proven measurable enchancment to date with Buium working it.
Thus far, that chance has resulted in solely two power-play factors throughout 20 video games after his preliminary burst in his Canucks debut, which underscores the problem in projecting his fantasy ceiling. Long run, Buium nonetheless seems more likely to earn extra minutes as he matures, however his lighter peripheral profile could restrict his general fantasy impression until the power-play manufacturing finally scales. His worth will hinge on sustained special-teams utilization, providing mid-tier upside however with some rosterability threat in codecs that rely closely on peripherals.
Jakub Dobeš – Montreal Canadiens
Dobeš is a structurally sound goaltender whose long-term worth could also be larger than initially anticipated, largely resulting from how effectively he has translated his positional self-discipline to the NHL stage. At the moment second amongst rookie goalies in wins, he has additionally posted almost 12 targets saved above anticipated in keeping with Evolving Hockey, a major margin in comparison with Jacob Fowler at 2.59 and Sam Montembeault at minus 1.37. His Evolving Hockey goalie card highlights simply how dramatically he has outperformed the surroundings in entrance of him, suggesting his outcomes are being pushed extra by execution than by group safety alone.
Long run, Dobeš profiles as a robust candidate to battle Fowler for the starter position, and the extent he has reached this season has launched official starter upside that won’t have been evident previous to this yr. Whereas he could by no means depend on elite athleticism, his positioning, composure, and effectivity give him a path towards sustained fantasy relevance, significantly in codecs that reward consistency and robust underlying efficiency moderately than pure quantity.
Yaroslav Askarov – San Jose Sharks
Askarov provides one of many highest long-term fantasy ceilings amongst rookie goaltenders due to his athleticism, confidence, and skill to get better on second-chance alternatives. Proper behind Dobeš in wins, he has been a significant component in San Jose’s stunning push towards playoff relevance, exhibiting flashes of the game-stealing upside that made him such a extremely regarded prospect. His aggressive model and willingness to problem shooters give him a better peak than a lot of his friends when all the things is clicking.
The chance, nevertheless, stays volatility. In contrast to Dobeš, Askarov has not constantly outperformed his anticipated save share at even energy, suggesting his outcomes are extra situational than dominant. Shorthanded play has been a special story, the place he has excelled and helped stabilize key moments for the Sharks. Long run, if his decision-making continues to mature alongside enhancements in San Jose’s roster, Askarov has official top-ten fantasy goalie potential. If inconsistency lingers, he could settle right into a extra streak-dependent profile, making him finest seen as a high-ceiling funding moderately than a assured long-term anchor.
At midseason, the Calder race has shifted, with Schaefer rising because the clear frontrunner due to his historic impression from the blue line and heavy utilization in all conditions. Whereas the rookie class stays forward-heavy, Demidov nonetheless carries probably the most explosive offensive ceiling and will tighten the race if he creates significant separation within the scoring race. Leonard and Sennecke proceed to ship regular manufacturing, however neither has matched Schaefer’s general affect on group outcomes so far. A goaltender breakthrough stays unlikely to change the panorama, although a sustained heater might at the least push one into the broader dialog because the season progresses.
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