Sidney Crosby was injured throughout Canada’s quarter-final win towards Czechia. He acquired snarled, took a few awkward falls in the course of the second interval, and didn’t return for the third interval. Hopefully we’ll get extra of an replace quickly.
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In Tuesday’s Ramblings, we coated what number of scoring possibilities have been created off zone entries by particular forwards, specializing in probably the most environment friendly forwards. As we speak, we’re shifting again a bit and doing the identical factor for defencemen.
Put merely, we’re discovering the variety of scoring possibilities created by a group per zone entry by a person defenceman, in addition to the general charge of particular person zone entries per 60 minutes by that defenceman. So, if the New York Rangers create 10 scoring possibilities off 50 zone entries by Adam Fox, then the Rangers are creating 0.2 scoring possibilities per entry. If Fox has 50 zone entries in 250 tracked minutes, then he is accountable for 12 zone entries per 60 minutes (50/250 * 60). The extra scoring possibilities per entry, the extra environment friendly the creation numbers, and the upper the zone entry numbers for the participant, the extra possibilities obtainable for the group.
All monitoring information is from All Three Zones, are for 5-on-5 play, and canopy solely the 2025-26 season. Particular person and group purpose/level information is from Evolving Hockey, and all that is present as of the Olympic break.
We’re limiting the pattern to defencemen with at the least 110 tracked minutes, which supplies us 161 defencemen. The pink and blue dotted strains on the graphs are the league common charges for our pattern of defencemen.
Sean Walker, Shayne Gostisbehere, Jalen Chatfield, Alexander Nikishin, and Joel Nyström (Carolina Hurricanes)
We needed to begin with the Carolina Hurricanes as a result of they’re one of many groups that’s the most reliant on contributions from defencemen. That turns into very apparent once we perceive that in our pattern of 161 defencemen, 42 of them are above the league common by each group scoring possibilities per entry by a defencemen and particular person zone entries per 60 minutes, and of these 42 above-average contributors, 5 of them are from Carolina’s blue line:
Seeing each Gostisbehere and Walker is sensible, given their respective histories. As a substitute, let’s give attention to the opposite three names.
Issues appear to be figuring out for Chatfield and his work on offence. With him on the ice at 5-on-5, Carolina is scoring 3.4 targets per 60 minutes. That’s the highest charge of his profession, exceeding his earlier finest of two.9 targets/60 minutes again in 2023-24. He additionally has 0.85 factors per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, the second-highest charge of his profession, trailing solely the 2023-24 season. It will be even increased, however Frozen Instruments has Chatfield taking part on simply 24.1% of targets scored with him on the ice at even power this season, the bottom charge of any Carolina defenceman with at the least 25 video games performed.
The perfect information is that Chatfield is doing this whereas skating 17 minutes a recreation at 5-on-5, a career-high. He has been requested to play his largest function, has been contributing effectively offensively, and Carolina is decisively profitable his minutes on each the purpose and shot clock. The issue is that with out power-play time and with very modest peripherals, he nonetheless does not have fantasy relevance outdoors of deep fantasy codecs.
Right here is the attention-grabbing half about Nikishin and Nyström: there are 10 rookie defencemen in our pattern, solely three of them are above common in each areas we’re finding out at present, and two of these three are Nikishin and Nyström:
Once more, as a result of they’re from Carolina, perhaps this is not an enormous shock, however that they are each doing one thing offensively that neither Matthew Schaefer nor Artyom Levshunov are doing stands out and is an effective signal for dynasty/keeper managers.
Whereas Nikishin was the one who acquired the offseason press, it’s Nyström who leads all rookie defencemen in factors per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 (minimal of 500 minutes), who leads all rookie defencemen in anticipated purpose share, and who’s second in precise purpose share, trailing solely Schaefer. As a seventh-round choose from 2021, Nyström has his work lower out for him, however here is a bit tidbit: Amongst all defencemen who performed at the least 125 video games between the ages of 20-22 within the Swedish Hockey League this century, Nyström has probably the most targets and factors (per Elite Prospects). Did the Hurricanes discover one other late-round gem?
Charle-Edouard D’Astous and Emil Martinsen Lilleberg (Tampa Bay Lightning)
The accidents to Tampa Bay’s blue line this season opened roles and roster spots for gamers who might have in any other case by no means gotten them. Quite a lot of consideration has gone to J.J. Moser for his wonderful season (and rightly so), but it surely’s price highlighting what each D’Astous and Lilleberg have executed for the Lightning:
These two defencemen are among the many 42 which can be above common in each group possibilities off the participant’s entries and particular person entries per 60 minutes. Of the 5 Tampa Bay blue liners in our pattern, they’re the one two to take action.
Lilleberg is presently on the long-term injured reserve and the hope was that he would return earlier than the Olympic break, which he didn’t. Assuming he is good to go as soon as the break is completed, the group has Victor Hedman, Ryan McDonagh, Moser, Lilleberg, Darren Raddysh, and Erik Cernak all wholesome. Lilleberg most likely nonetheless has a spot within the beginning lineup, however within the month earlier than he was injured, he was skating over 20 minutes a recreation. When the lineup is wholesome, it appears not possible he’ll come near that mark, so his fantasy worth will take an enormous hit. But when he can sustain the offensive success, he’ll assist the forwards in entrance of him create effectively offensively even with the likes of Hedman or Raddysh off the ice.
D’Astous was injured on the finish of January and after that damage, each Hedman and McDonagh returned from their very own accidents. At finest, if D’Astous is able to play when the NHL resumes, he’ll be a 6th or 7th defenceman for the Lightning. He could be straight-up despatched to the AHL as a result of he is waiver exempt. He has put up stable penalty minute, hit, and block numbers, and his 82-game tempo was for over 30 factors. That made him viable in some deeper multi-cat codecs, however at least his ice time will take a success, and at worst he’ll not even be within the NHL over the ultimate eight weeks.
Both approach, along with the explosion from Raddysh and top-notch play from Moser, the Lightning have discovered lots about their defensive depth, and so they’ve shone brightly.
Mattias Ekholm (Edmonton Oilers)
Throughout the 2 seasons from 2023-2025, Ekholm produced 8.3 zone entries per 60 minutes, which was about 7% above the league common. Thus far within the 2025-26 season, Ekholm has been accountable for 11.5 zone entries per 60 minutes, which is 56.4% above the typical of our pattern. That, together with the scoring probability creation off his entries, places him in fairly good firm:
The issue is that it is actually not resulting in plenty of manufacturing, at the least comparatively talking. From 2023-2025, Ekholm averaged 1.3 factors per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, which was 13th amongst 179 defencemen with at the least 1500 minutes performed. Thus far this season, he is producing 1.22 factors per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, which is 34th amongst 184 defencemen with at the least 500 minutes performed. The Oilers are scoring a lot much less with Ekholm and Connor McDavid on the ice than ordinary, so Ekholm’s surge in offensive involvement just isn’t serving to the group rating extra typically or him produce factors like he normally does. His 82-game level tempo is the bottom of his three full seasons with Edmonton, so it is a marvel if he is serving to or hurting his (and the group’s) trigger by taking part in as he’s.
Morgan Rielly (Toronto Maple Leafs)
For all of the slander that Rielly will get, each rightly or wrongly, it’s price noting that he is the one Toronto defenceman of the 5 in our pattern to be above common in each areas we’re analyzing at present:
We see excessive scoring probability creation numbers off Simon Benoit’s zone entries, however the Leafs are additionally creating by far their worst offensive numbers with him on the ice of all their defencemen:
- 1.74 targets/60 minutes with Benoit on the ice; 2.88 targets/60 with him off the ice
- 18.9 photographs/60 minutes with Benoit on the ice; 27.7 photographs/60 with him off the ice
To a level way more extreme than Ekholm, Benoit’s contributions usually are not serving to the Leafs.
Conversely, Toronto is creating the second-most targets and most photographs per 60 minutes with Rielly on the ice. There are plenty of targets towards, however the goalies have additionally produced an .878 save proportion in Rielly’s minutes. He could also be poor defensively, however his prior career-low for save proportion when he is on the ice is .902. Issues will most likely look lots higher down the stretch as soon as the goalies make some extra saves, and the Leafs want Rielly to maintain doing what he does as a result of nobody else on their blue line can.
Alex Vlasic (Chicago Blackhawks)
Although it is nowhere close to as drastic as what’s occurring in Toronto, it’s price noting that the one Chicago defenceman to be above common in each group possibilities per participant zone entry and particular person entries per 60 minutes is Vlasic:
With extra video games to be tracked between now and the tip of the season, it isn’t inconceivable that somebody like Levshunov or Sam Rinzel additionally climbs into the constructive facet of each ledgers, however for now, Vlasic stands alone. It’s serving to Vlasic to 0.82 factors per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, which is not something particular in comparison with the league – roughly a mid-tier second-pair charge – however it’s 34% increased than his two-year common from 2023-2025.
The difficulty is that offensive involvement hasn’t actually helped elevate the group:
- In Vlasic’s minutes with Bedard, the Blackhawks are scoring 2.5 targets per 60 minutes, which is roughly the league common, and the group is at 3.6 targets/60 minutes when Bedard is on the ice with out Vlasic.
- In Vlasic’s non-Bedard minutes, the group scores 1.8 targets per 60 minutes. General, Chicago scores 2.0 targets per 60 minutes with Bedard off the ice.
Whether or not taking a look at Bedard’s minutes with out Vlasic, or the group’s minutes with out Bedard, Vlasic’s involvement in zone entries, and the scoring possibilities generated therein, aren’t serving to the group rating extra targets than they’re in any other case.
Right here is the intense facet: Vlasic producing extra and being concerned offensively is an effective signal. He simply crossed the 200-game threshold earlier this season, and as a 6’6″ defenceman, he might take even longer to develop. If he can preserve constructing on this offensive profile, and retain his defensive play, he’ll be a really profitable two-way defenceman for the Blackhawks.
The draw back is that Vlasic is unlikely to earn significant power-play time, his puck abilities will seemingly by no means be that of a top-end offensive defenceman, and his peripherals aren’t superb – none of his three full seasons have seen him attain 1.5 photographs or 0.75 hits per recreation. He may flip right into a defenceman who can push for 40 factors, but when he does it with 120 photographs and 50 hits a season, there’s not plenty of attraction outdoors of deeper points-only or multi-cat codecs. In medium-sized or shallow fantasy leagues, he stays waiver fodder, particularly till the Blackhawks develop dependable, high-end scoring depth.
