By Stephen Vilardo, SuperWest Sports activities
The Mountain West has been a multi-bid league in each NCAA match since 2017, when Nevada was the league’s sole consultant.
The Wolf Pack went 28-7 that yr below Eric Musselman, successful each the regular-season and convention match crowns en path to a seven seed within the Large Dance.
That streak of a number of bids is in severe doubt heading into the ultimate two and a half weeks of the 2025-26 males’s basketball season.
The league’s probabilities of getting an at-large delivery took a giant hit on Tuesday, with Grand Canyon knocking off San Diego State inside Viejas Area.
The loss snapped a 10-game house courtroom successful streak for the Aztecs and signaled a season sweep for the Antelopes over SDSU.
It was additionally a giant blow to the Aztecs’ NCAA hopes. San Diego State is firmly on the bubble for the time being and probably on the surface trying in if Choice Sunday have been at present.
Nonetheless, Utah State’s win over Boise State on Wednesday night time was a step in the precise course for the Aggies and for the convention.
The solely lock for the Mountain West seems to be Utah State. The Aggies sit at 23-3 on the season and rank twenty third in the newest NET rankings.
The Aggies are a really strong 3-2 in Quad 1 video games whereas going 20-1 throughout the remainder of their schedule after their 75-56 rout of Boise State.
USU exhibits up in all 124 bracket projections and, per Bracket Matrix, has a median seed of seven.42.
In bracket projections, the Aggies are as excessive as a 5 seed and as little as a 9. This might point out that even with a slip-up within the MW Match, USU ought to be comfortably in.
But when they go on a skid, issues might get dicey.
Whereas the Aggies are the very best MW crew within the NET rankings, they’re amongst seven convention squads rating among the many high 101.
The issue is that the next-highest groups are New Mexico and San Diego State, they usually fall firmly into the bubble vary in rating within the mid-40’s.
The opposite 4 groups within the high third of the nation fall between the 60-101 vary, and at this level, that will require an auto bid.
SDSU nonetheless enters the weekend having received 15 of their final 19 video games, however the Aztecs are missing the signature win, going 1-4 in Quad 1 video games. The Aztecs rank forty fourth within the NET as of February 18.
If the Aztecs can shut the common season with a flurry, they may play their manner off the bubble.
A go to from Utah State and journeys to New Mexico and Boise State provide SDSU an opportunity to pad the resume and three possibilities at Quad 1 wins.
Once more, in keeping with Bracket Matrix, the Aztecs are nonetheless a consensus NCAA crew showing in 84 of 124 projections and ranging anyplace from a ten to a 12 seed…So in, however firmly on the bubble.
The Lobos discover themselves in the same state of affairs. New Mexico is ranked barely greater within the NET at 42, in comparison with SDSU’s 44, however seems on simply 16 of the 124 bracket projections.
UNM additionally has an opportunity to play its manner off the bubble, however has simply two grand alternatives: The showdown with SDSU in The Pit, which might be a Quad Two win for the Lobos, and the common season finale at Utah State.
The intriguing crew within the combine is Grand Canyon. The Antelopes have picked up some massive wins however have additionally underperformed at occasions. A extra constant exhibiting this season, and GCU could possibly be a close to lock.
The Lopes are a formidable 3-4 in Quad 1 video games this season, however simply 5-4 in Quad 2 and Quad 3 video games mixed, and the early-season house loss to Youngstown State continues to be an inexplicable end result.
The Mountain West has proven itself to be a deep convention this season, however the streak of a number of NCAA bids is in jeopardy. Nonetheless, a few paths stay to get there.
Clearly, a powerful end for Utah State after which an upset of the Aggies within the Championship sport in Vegas could be the best route.
The opposite possibility is for the Aggies to proceed successful, and both San Diego State or New Mexico to get scorching and keep scorching.
If the Mountain West is to be a multiple-bid league for the ninth straight yr, it is going to want a type of groups to separate itself from the opposite.
writes about numerous subjects for SuperWest sports activities, together with stats and information, faculty sports activities, and motorsports. He additionally based and runs the Sports activities and Leisure Analysis Heart (SERC).
