Dane Miller’s NCAA Bracket Evaluation for Groups within the West

Arizona
1 seed — West Area

The Wildcats face a difficult path to the Remaining 4. Receiving the No. 1 seed within the West was anticipated, however the prime half of the bracket is hard.

A Second-Spherical matchup in opposition to both Villanova or Utah State received’t be straightforward. The Aggies are higher than a 9-seed and would have an honest fan presence in San Diego.

After that, the almost definitely matchup is Wisconsin or Arkansas within the Candy 16. There’s historical past with the Badgers and the Razorbacks, who simply received the SEC Event.

If Tommy Lloyd will get his crew all the best way to the Elite 8, the potential matchups are Purdue, Gonzaga, or BYU.

That’s a reasonably powerful draw for the No. 2 general seed. However in some methods, it doesn’t matter who Arizona performs.

In 1997, the Wildcats beat three 1-seeds and received the Nationwide Championship. And in 2001, the Cats beat two 1-seeds earlier than shedding to 1-seed Duke within the finals.

If this crew goes to do one thing particular, they need to beat all of the decrease seeds they play, no matter how good these groups truly are.

The notion round Arizona is that it all the time underperforms in March. It’s as much as Lloyd and this yr’s crew to show that popularity fallacious.

Gonzaga
3 Seed – West Area

Gonzaga is the 3-seed within the West and has a considerably favorable path to the Candy 16. Touchdown within the West area was key as a result of it put the Zags in Portland for the primary two rounds.

The Bulldogs ought to deal with Kennesaw State and can in all probability face BYU within the Spherical of 32. The Cougar followers journey properly, although, and can probably present out for the sport.

Michigan State and Illinois are the opposite 3-seeds which may have simpler paths. However Virginia arguably has a more durable draw than Gonzaga.

On the finish of the day, the position is roughly in keeping with expectations and may even be a seed greater than some have been predicting.

Staying out West might turn into a deciding issue. Purdue looks as if a susceptible 2-seed, and there’s potential for an Elite 8 matchup with Arizona.

The knock on Gonzaga, nonetheless, is that they haven’t overwhelmed any nice groups this yr.

Many may choose them to be upset within the Second Spherical, and a run deeper than the Candy 16 can be sudden.

BYU
6 Seed – West Area

Staying out West could be the explanation BYU leads to the Candy 16.

The one different possibility was the South Area, the place the winner of the 6-seed vs. 11-seed recreation is more likely to get a matchup with Illinois.

As a substitute, the Cougars get a possible showdown with Gonzaga. From an goal standpoint, Gonzaga is a better opponent than Illinois this yr.

Avoiding the South Area additionally prevented a possible matchup with Houston within the Candy 16. However that’s the place the excellent news ends.

The 6-seeds haven’t carried out properly in opposition to 11-seeds. It’s some of the frequent upsets in your entire match.

And to make issues worse, the Cougars should face one of many groups from the First 4, a gaggle that’s identified to make runs.

All that with out even mentioning the potential opponents: NC State or Texas. Most are shocked that the Wolfpack have been pressured into the First 4, and the Longhorns are succesful.

It could be a classy upset choose to have BYU shedding within the First Spherical. But when the Cougars can keep away from the stumble, they’re ok to beat Gonzaga and attain the Candy 16.

Then, who is aware of?

Purdue is a troublesome second-weekend opponent, and BYU was swept by Arizona in the course of the common season.

UCLA
7 Seed – East Area

The seeding just isn’t as a lot of a difficulty for UCLA. It’s the area. Getting shipped off to the East was the worst-case state of affairs.

The Bruins have struggled outdoors the Pacific Time Zone and would have a lot most well-liked to be out West.

The matchup with UCF is likely one of the tougher 10-seeds, too. Santa Clara would definitely have been a better draw, and even Missouri or Texas A&M might need been preferable.

The Second-Spherical matchup can be even worse. Taking part in UConn in Philadelphia is a nightmare. If the matchup have been to be performed in San Diego or Portland, the Bruins would have a stronger likelihood.

However dealing with Dan Hurley within the Jap Time Zone is an issue. That might be the place UCLA’s season involves an finish.

There could also be an argument that the Bruins ought to have been as excessive as a 6-seed. UCLA has a number of respectable Massive Ten wins over Purdue, Illinois, Nebraska, and Michigan State.

There are some damage considerations, however that’s not sufficient to justify the 7-seed. And undoubtedly not within the East bracket.

It’s laborious to see UCLA attending to the Candy 16. But when it does get handed UConn, then it’s ok to get to the Elite 8.

Saint Mary’s
7 Seed – South Area

After shedding to Santa Clara within the Semifinals of the WCC Event, it’s not a lot of a shock to see Saint Mary’s as a 7-seed.

There’s little doubt that avoiding the 8 or 9-seed line was a optimistic end result. The opening matchup in opposition to Texas A&M just isn’t the worst, both.

The SEC is perpetually overrated, and the Gaels are favored to win the sport. The truth that the competition is in Oklahoma Metropolis does barely favor the Aggies, although.

However wanting previous the primary recreation, Houston is looming within the Spherical of 32.

Of all of the 7-seeds, the Gaels might need the hardest path to the Candy 16. UConn and Purdue are each extra susceptible than Kelvin Sampson’s crew.

UCLA and Miami every acquired extra favorable attracts than Saint Mary’s. But, that’s what occurs if you don’t deal with enterprise in a mid-major convention and haven’t any marquee nonconference wins.

Utah State
9 Seed – West Area

The Aggies are under-seeded. The Committee tousled. Plain and easy.

The Common Season and Event Champions of the Mountain West aren’t a 9-seed underneath any goal measuring stick. The Committee considered Saint Mary’s as worthy of being two seed strains greater.

The distinction exhibits simply how little the Mountain West was revered this yr. Blame that on the league’s horrible nonconference outcomes.

However falling to the 9-seed could be the value that was paid to remain within the West. But, getting matched up with Villanova was no favor.

TCU and Saint Louis each acquired extra favorable opening spherical video games than Utah State did. And that’s with out even mentioning Arizona, the No. 2 general seed that looms within the Spherical of 32.

Possibly the one optimistic end result is the situation of the opening spherical. Attending to play in San Diego ought to give Utah State a bonus over Villanova.

If the Aggies advance to face Arizona, it is going to be a special story. However the Vegas oddsmakers like USU within the First Spherical.

Regardless, the Aggies ought to have been a 7-seed.

It’s laborious to see Utah State attending to the second weekend with this a lot of an unfavorable draw.

Santa Clara
10 Seed – Midwest Area

Santa Clara received an excellent draw with a matchup in opposition to Kentucky within the First Spherical. The Wildcats aren’t the identical program that they was, and the sport could be the commonest upset choose of the Event.

The competition is in St. Louis, which does reasonably favor Kentucky. But, the 10-seed line just isn’t unhealthy contemplating that some have been predicting that Santa Clara would find yourself within the First 4.

The potential Second-Spherical matchup with Iowa State is an issue, although. The Cyclones have Remaining 4 potential and received’t overlook the Broncos in the event that they beat Kentucky.

Even so, out of all of the 10-seeds, Santa Clara received one of many higher attracts. Kentucky is a better opponent than UCLA or Miami. The SEC is usually hype and the Broncos have an affordable likelihood to advance to the Second Spherical.

Then, Santa Clara will probably must play its greatest recreation in a number of years to upset Iowa State within the Spherical of 32.

Hawai’i
13 Seed – West Area

The Warriors acquired the auto-bid from the Massive West of their ultimate yr within the Convention. Staying within the West area was an important end result, even when the opening recreation is a troublesome draw.

Arkansas simply received the SEC Event and is coached by the legendary Jim Calipari. It’s not unattainable for a 13-seed to drag off an upset, but it surely appears unlikely contemplating the opponent.

The sport being in Portland helps, and there’s little doubt the group will probably be on Hawaii’s facet. But, it’s in all probability a one-and-done for the Massive West Champions.

If something, it units the stage for a profitable transition to the Mountain West subsequent season.

Cal Baptist
13 Seed – East Area

It took a miracle to get right here. So why can’t the dream proceed?

Cal Baptist was given a good 13-seed solely to be pitted in opposition to a Massive 12 opponent. Kansas has been up and down all season, but the Jayhawks are a troublesome draw.

KU is extra proficient, extra athletic, and higher coached. To beat them, the Lancers should hit their threes. And loads of them.

The sport being performed in San Diego is definitely favorable. A Southern California crew taking part in in Southern California in opposition to a blue blood is a recipe for an upset.

The gang will probably be foaming for a Cal Baptist win.

Aside from the opponent drawn, CBU was handled surprisingly respectably by the Choice Committee. Staying out West and taking part in 1.5 hours away from campus is a transparent nod to the season the Lancers have performed.

No person is anticipating this to be an upset, which is precisely why it would occur.

North Dakota State
14 Seed – East Area

The Bison received the Summit League Event and get a matchup with Michigan State in Buffalo.

The seed line is considerably questionable after the Committee gave Cal Baptist a 13-seed and let the Lancers keep in Southern California.

After profitable the Summit League Common Season and securing the auto-bid, you’d have anticipated the Committee to indicate a little bit extra respect.

But when NDSU can upset the Spartans, then a magical Cinderella run to the Candy 16 just isn’t out of the query.

Each Louisville and South Florida are beatable if North Dakota State is nice sufficient to take down MSU.

Idaho
15 Seed – South Area

Out of all of the 15-seeds, Idaho acquired the hardest draw.

Houston is arguably the strongest 2-seed within the subject, and the matchup is in Oklahoma Metropolis.

It’s very uncommon for this matchup to end in an upset. And it’s even much less probably with Kelvin Sampson on the opposite bench.

It was a magical run to win the Massive Sky Event and make the Massive Dance. However the story probably ends within the First Spherical.