Welcome again to Goldipucks and the Three Skaters, a play on phrases of the Goldilocks and the Three Bears story. As a substitute of there being three bowls of porridge although, I cowl three skaters and declare one too scorching (i.e., doing unsustainably higher than he ought to), one other too chilly (i.e., doing unsustainably worse), and a 3rd “excellent” (i.e., producing the place he ought to be). As well as, I additionally assign every a score of 1-10, indicating how scorching (rated 7-10, the place 10 is essentially the most unsustainably scorching), chilly (rated 1-4, the place 1 is essentially the most unsustainably chilly), or “excellent” (rated 4-7, the place 5.5 is essentially the most “excellent”) he’s.
With the commerce deadline having handed, fantasy GMs are readying for H2H playoffs or attempting to make positive factors in roto leagues. Key to undertaking each is figuring out if their gamers are overachieving or underachieving, or may be counted on to maintain producing as they’ve to this point. With that in thoughts, we have a look at three gamers this month: Tim Stutzle, Rasmus Dahlin, and Brandon Hagel. Can you determine which one has been too scorching for 2025-26, versus who’s been too chilly and who’s play has been “excellent”? Pause right here to lock in your guesses, then learn on to search out out. Stats are present by means of March 14th video games.
Tim Stutzle (60 GP, 30G, 40A, 162 SOG, 20:27 TOI, 23 PPPts, 3:24 PP, 63.3% PP%)
Drafted third general in 2020, Stutzle went on to the NHL, faring okay however not nice in his first season. He made strides in his second marketing campaign, however went supernova in his third, tallying 90 factors in 78 video games. It was thought he’d solely get higher from there, however that has not been the case, with him failing to achieve even the purpose per sport mark in both of the following two seasons. He is faring much better in 2025-26, on a par with 2022-23. Can we now rely on him being a 90+ level participant, or is that this one other outlying season? Sadly for many who personal him, the latter appears to be the case.
In his finest season, Stutzle took the ice for 21:16, with 3:58 of that on the PP. Examine that to now, the place his general TOI is almost a minute much less and his PPTOI about 30 seconds decrease. One way or the other regardless of a nonetheless excessive TOI, and taking common shifts on the PK, Stutzle’s offensive zone beginning proportion is 68.2%. That is regarding, because it realistically can not go larger than that, and if he was to get again to his prior TOI degree, it nearly assuredly would come on the expense of his OZ%, with him by no means having even been at 60% or larger beforehand.
Additionally, scoring forwards with an OZ% of 65% or larger and common TOI per sport of 20:00+, there’s Jack Hughes, Kyle Connor, and Mark Scheifele, that is all, emphasizing how uncommon that is. None of them have close to the quantity of SH time per sport as Stutzle to offset their OZ%, plus, within the case of Connor and Scheifele, they’ve been seeing their OZ% uptick with every season, however regularly, this being the seventh season that Scheifele has seen his OZ% rise, with it being above 60% within the three prior seasons for him and Connor. As for Hughes, he is been above 60% each season of his profession. Stutzle stands proud, and never in a great way, as a result of he is seen his OZ% rise by a lot and regardless of plenty of PK responsibility.
Additionally, Stutzle’s 5×5 staff SH% is 12.3%, which, even for a high tier participant, is a bit excessive. However for Stutzle, it is properly above his norm, as he had by no means beforehand been in double digits. On the plus aspect, when he did tally 90 factors it was 9.1%, seemingly signifying that if – when – it does drop, he might nonetheless be capable to produce. Nonetheless, the mixture of his atypically excessive OZ% and 5×5 staff SH% suggests he is positively overachieving.
Stutzle’s PP IPP is a bit down, however not a lot, and his secondary help price is a bit low for him, however, at 47.4%, just isn’t objectively low, and unlikely to rise sufficient to yield many added factors. Add to it that his general IPP is at his norm, and, importantly, is beneath the 70% mark for a second straight season, with 70% being a threshold related to almost all gamers who may be counted on for elite scoring. Additionally, though Stutzle’s SOG per sport price is at 2.5, up from 2.0 final season, it is properly beneath the two.9 it was when he tallied 90 factors in 2022-23, plus his private SH%, at 18.5%, is larger than the 17.1% it was in 2022-23, and significantly above his profession price of 13.2% getting into this season, such that he could have tallied as many as 9 extra targets this season than would have been anticipated given his profession SH%.
One other problem with Stutzle is he is each much less constant and fewer explosive than others who’re among the many high 20 NHL scorers. Of the 15 with extra factors than him, 14 have factors in the next proportion of video games, and likewise his 21 multipoint video games are but once more greater than only one with extra factors than him. Curiously, Stutzle equally lagged behind larger scorers by way of consistency in his prior finest season of 2022-23; nonetheless, he had extra multipoint video games than over half these with larger level totals, and three video games with 4 factors, versus zero 4 level video games for 2025-26. The image this paints is that of Stutzle not being the caliber of these scoring comparable or above him this season, additional emphasizing that he’s doing higher than he ought to be.
Trying once more on the PP, Stutzle’s PPG price is just like 2022-23. Nevertheless it should not be, as not solely is his PPSOG price down, with solely 35 this whole season, as in comparison with 64 in 78 video games in 2022-23, however his PP SH% is 20.0% this season, versus 14.7% in 2022-23. One more indication that he is scoring at too excessive of a price to be sustained.
These hoping Stutzle is formally again to the extent he was in 2022-23 ought to be ready to be dissatisfied, as for this season he’s most assuredly TOO HOT, with metrics indicative as a substitute of somebody who ought to be at or round an 80-point tempo or perhaps a bit decrease. Stutzle will get a score of 9.0, and in case you personal him in a keeper you would possibly need to take into account promoting excessive, as almost certainly his scoring will drop over the rest of the season, or, if not, then for 2026-27. The truth is, it could have already began.
Rasmus Dahlin (63P, 13G, 47, 162 SOG, 24:49 TOI, 20 PPPts, 3:28 PP, 68.8% PP%)
Chosen first general in 2018, Dahlin went straight to the NHL and, all issues thought-about, did fairly properly his first few seasons given his staff and lack of elite surrounding expertise. Nonetheless, it was not till his fifth season that each one the dots actually linked, with Dahlin amassing 73 factors in 78 video games. He took a step again the next season, however rose once more to a 75-point scoring tempo final season, and is true at his profession finest 78-point scoring price for 2025-26? Is that this the most effective we will get from Dahlin? Almost definitely not, as he ought to do even higher in future seasons.
Regardless of Dahlin being on a par together with his most efficient prior season, he has fared higher in a number of prior campaigns in TOI, each general and on the PP, in addition to SOG per sport. However as his SOG price has shrank, his SH% has risen, with it being 8.0%+ for the third straight season after by no means beforehand being above 7.6%. Additionally, his PPPt price, though not on tempo to be a profession finest, is about to rise for the second consecutive season. These are each good to see.
One thing else to think about is Dahlin used to rack up hits and blocks, at his peak averaging two or extra of every per sport. Now, nonetheless, he is underneath one hit per sport and barely above one block. This is likely to be him realizing he should prioritize scoring. So though it’s not nice to see in multicat leagues, for factors solely it is most likely a constructive.
Dahlin’s TOI is down over a minute from his profession finest; however it’s a “much less is extra” state of affairs in that his PK responsibility can also be down and his PP TOI per sport is pacing to be his second highest. One way or the other although, his OZ% is 48.5%, having by no means beforehand been beneath 55%. The actual fact he is producing this properly regardless of his OZ% being so low is a good signal, plus it is likely to be a lagging indicator, as Buffalo was awful for a big chunk of the yr, which might’ve led to his OZ% being decrease than common. Or to place it one other method, it is likely to be low, however likelihood is it has risen because the Sabres have ignited. Might he rating extra if it rises again to 55%? General sure, since let’s not overlook that he is been over some extent per sport for this scorching stretch, that means that in all probability his OZ% has been larger, and he has responded by producing beautifully. Additionally, Dahlin just isn’t the kind of participant who I can see having an OZ% as little as it’s now regularly, as that may be a waste of his true expertise, plus Buffalo has different d-men who can deal with harder minutes. Lengthy story brief, and issues as an entire, Dahlin’s OZ% ought to be again at or close to 55% in future seasons, that means he ought to be capable to hold scoring above some extent per sport price if/when that occurs.
Dahlin’s present secondary help price is 57.4%, having been beneath 40% in two of the previous three seasons. Slightly than it being elevated, because it may appear, it was too low beforehand, as greater than half of the opposite high eight scoring d-men have a secondary help price of 52.6% or larger. Plus, his IPPs are close to his norms, suggesting he’s nonetheless as dialed in with regards to scoring. And on high of that, his 5×5 staff SH% is true close to his common.
Taking a look at Dahlin’s sport log, we see 4 with three factors, and one with 5, with three of the three level video games coming simply since February twenty eighth. But regardless of this, his proportion of multipoint video games trails that of different excessive scoring defensemen, suggesting he has lifelike room for much more multipoint outputs. His general consistency although is one way or the other decrease than his norm, with that most likely being owed to how poorly Buffalo did within the early going, and thus not more likely to carry into future seasons.
Dahlin is likely to be beneath level per sport tempo, however that’s seemingly owed largely to how terrible the Sabres have been early on. They’re unlikely to be as nice in future seasons as they have been because the calendar flipped to 2026; however what we’re seeing from Dahlin is extra influenced by unsustainably adverse metrics from the primary half of the season than unsustainably constructive ones on this previous ~25 video games, making his 2025-26 to this point TOO COLD, and incomes him a score of two.5, as I feel he is poised to make a run at 90 factors subsequent season, or at worst 85.
Brandon Hagel (60P, 30G, 29A, 175 SOG, 19:39 TOI, 9 PPPts, 2:05 PP, 42.0% PP%)
After an unremarkable first season within the WHL, Hagel was a sixth spherical choose by Chicago within the 2016 draft. He remained in juniors for 4 full seasons, lastly igniting in his final. His first AHL season was solely okay, however he was with the Hawks to remain for 2020-21. After an unremarkable first season, Hagel stood at 37 factors in 55 video games in 2021-22, solely to be traded to Tampa for gamers and picks. As soon as in Tampa, Hagel performed properly, and solely bought higher, culminating in 90 factors final season. For 2025-26, he is been on the level per sport mark. Is that what we should always anticipate, or might he rise once more? Almost definitely the previous.
Regardless of how properly he performed in 2024-25, Hagel’s TOI is down a full minute, half of which is misplaced PP time. Certainly, after a trial on PP1, he is now again on PP2, the place he’d been in all his prior seasons that noticed him end beneath the purpose per sport mark. Mockingly although, he is on tempo for comparable PP scoring as final season, however that is a results of a PP IPP of 56.3%, which, to offer you an concept of how poorly Hagel fared on the PP beforehand, is barely lower than the sum of his PP IPPs from the final two seasons. It is not unreasonable although to see his PP IPP rise regardless of being on PP2, as he is now not on the ice with the staff’s level magnets. Even contemplating that, his PP IPP appears unsustainably excessive.
Let’s additionally not overlook that Hagel posted 90 factors final season regardless of an OZ% of 42.0%, and never even a handful of forwards with an OZ% that low posted some extent per each different sport. Additionally, to have posted 90 factors regardless of solely 11 approaching the PP is past exceptional, as among the many 167 different cases of a ahead scoring 90+ factors relationship again to 2000-01, the second lowest PPPt whole is 20, or almost double Hagel’s 11.
His OZ% is as much as 56.2% this season, so at the very least that’s now not working towards him like 2024-25. Nonetheless, we additionally can not look previous the very fact he had ten SHPs in 2024-25, having totaled ten in his complete profession earlier than final season, consisting of greater than 3.5 occasions as many video games as he performed in 2024-25. And certain sufficient, his SHP whole is down to simply two this season. That can also clarify his decrease tempo.
Hagel’s private SH% is also excessive, which is iffy contemplating he is on tempo for a profession finest SOG price. But his staff SH% at 5×5 is 11.1%, which is affordable plus is on tempo to enhance versus final season, because it has in every season he is been with Tampa. Additionally, his secondary help price, is 31.0%, having averaged 35.9% the previous three seasons, with that quantity being introduced down by one aberrational season of twenty-two.2%. Hagel additionally has an general IPP of 71.1%, which, though it could mark a profession finest, wouldn’t be the primary time he exceeded 70%, and up solely modestly from 68.2% final season. Him having an IPP that top is necessary as a result of it surpasses the 70% threshold I equate with actually high tier expertise, plus it is regardless of him skating most frequently at 5×5 with Nikita Kucherov, who’s a factors magnet. Sure, extra factors are scored with Kucherov on the ice; however with Kucherov getting at the very least one usually, the truth that Hagel will get one 71% of the time speaks to Hagel being a legit scorer.
Taking a look at Hagel’s scoring patterns, he has some extent in solely 55.0% of video games, which is decrease than not solely each single ahead who has extra factors than him, however decrease than lower than a handful of the following 25 forwards in whole factors. He has 19 multipoint video games, which is larger than all of the 25 forwards straight beneath him in scoring, plus greater than solely a handful of the 20 forwards above him. Final season, by comparability, Hagel had some extent in a far larger proportion of video games, 69.5% to be precise with at the very least some extent, however a barely decrease proportion of multipoint video games versus. Furthermore, final season he had two 4 level video games and one five-point sport, versus only one four-point sport this season. Though it isn’t unrealistic to suppose he’ll get again to scoring extra constantly, his price of multipoint video games, and what number of enormous video games he has, for this season is extra possible his norm.
It is readily obvious Hagel’s 2024-25 was an outlier; however him hovering across the level per sport mark as he’s now, appears affordable all issues thought-about. As such, his 2025-26 is JUST RIGHT, and he will get a score of 5.5, as I feel an 80-point scoring price looks like what we should always anticipate going ahead.
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Questions for Mailbag
My month-to-month mailbag has room for many extra questions. To get your inquiries to me, ship (1) a non-public message to “rizzeedizzee” by way of the DobberHockey Boards, or (2) an e-mail to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the topic line.
