Welcome again to a different version of the Roos Lets Unfastened month-to-month mailbag, the place I reply your fantasy hockey questions by giving recommendation that ought to be helpful to all poolies even when they do not personal the particular gamers being mentioned. As a reminder, if you need your fantasy hockey query(s) answered within the subsequent mailbag, try the tip of the column, the place I clarify the methods to get it/them to me in addition to the main points it is best to present when sending. The sooner you ship a query the extra seemingly it’s to be included within the mailbag, and the deeper dive I can present with my reply.
Query #1 (from Michael)
Two seasons in the past I joined a ten staff, maintain 5, H2H league as an enlargement staff together with one other GM to make it a 12 staff league. Classes are: G, A, +/-, GWG, SOG, HIT, BLK, W, GAA, SV%, and SHO, and rosters are 2C, 2LW, 2RW, 4D, 1UT, 2G, 5BN, 2IR+. I am hoping to alter it from one utility spot to 6 bench spots and/or to take away GWG as a class, if you wish to issue these into your evaluation.
The primary draft after the enlargement, myself and the opposite enlargement staff needed to decide from the 50 gamers who weren’t stored. Realizing that might make it unlikely to be aggressive, I made a decision to attempt to concentrate on constructing a staff that would win in two or extra seasons. And it is labored fairly effectively, as going into this season my keepers had been Mikko Rantanen, Artemi Panarin, Rasmus Dahlin, Lane Hutson, and Sebastian Aho, plus I had amassed lots of early spherical draft picks. Right here is my present full roster, with any multi-position eligibility famous.
C – Aho, Vincent Trocheck, Elias Pettersson (LW), Mika Zibanejad (RW)
LW – Panarin, Jesper Bratt (RW), Dylan Holloway (C)
RW – Kirill Marchenko, Ivan Demidov, Alex Tuch (LW), Nick Schmaltz (C)
D – Hutson, Dahlin, Dougie Hamilton, Charlie McAvoy, Mikhail Sergachev
G – Sorokin, Daccord
IR+ – Rantanen (LW/RW), JT Miller (C/LW/RW)
As I write this (in early March) I’m at the moment in fifth place, however solely 7 factors out of 2nd, with 6 groups making the playoffs. I believe I’ve an okay shot at a playoff run, relying largely on what number of of my Ranger gamers do throughout their golden week 2 playoff schedule, however I’m nonetheless primarily targeted on sustainable success shifting ahead, with seemingly keepers being Hutson, Demidov, Rantanen, and Sorokin. I’m trying to commerce away Marchenko and Panarin however am unlikely to get a deal accomplished for both of them. Most buying and selling does happen within the offseason.
My major query is, ought to I simply maintain Dahlin and name it a day? He flashes brilliance, and I like the concept of two defensemen keepers, however he is nonetheless solely ranked 90 by whole and 100 by common on this format. The opposite issue is that the dominant GM of this league had Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, Evan Bouchard, Jack Hughes, and MacKenzie Blackwood as his keepers heading into this season, however now additionally has Leo Carlsson and Darren Raddysh. He’s very hooked up to the primary three, however my sense is Hughes or Leo might be obtained in commerce, though he’s a shrewd dealer.
Do you agree with my lock keepers (particularly Demidov)? And may I make it simple and simply maintain Dahlin, or would it not make sense to try to commerce for Carlsson or Hughes?
On condition that I acquired this query just a few weeks in the past, and Dahlin has ignited, my guess is you are now extra snug preserving Dahlin. Because it so occurs, I lined him in my final Goldipucks, the place I concluded he can certainly be a degree per recreation man, maybe rising to 90 if Buffalo stays a powerful staff.
As for whether or not Demidov is a keeper, it is both him or Panarin. Miller would’ve been a lock if this was a 12 months in the past; nonetheless, whether or not he can return to something near his previous kind could be very a lot doubtful, as for essentially the most half he is been a shell of his former self when he is performed this season, plus as I’ve famous a number of instances on this column it’s fairly frequent that after “tough and tumble” gamers begin to falter, their stats are inclined to fall off a cliff and barely rebound. My information suggests that is almost definitely to occur round age 30, though not all the time, with Miller, solely now slowing at age 33, being a working example. Nonetheless, at his age, and given his fashion, it might be a stretch to anticipate him to be even a degree per recreation participant once more, making him not a maintain when you possibly can as an alternative maintain Demidov or Panarin.
Specializing in Panarin, for a few years his poor output in HIT and BLK was not too bitter a capsule to swallow given how nice a scorer he was. This season and final he is settled round a 90-point tempo, which continues to be nice, however a step down from his days of 105+. For what it is price, he is accomplished solely okay for the Kings, with 19 factors in 18 video games, translating to a fair decrease price than he had with the Rangers. Apparently though his general scoring is decrease, his +/- is a lot better and he is doing wonderful on the PP plus taking pictures extra. Nonetheless, if he can stay a 90-point draw back participant, even with the HIT and BLK penalty, that’s fairly nice. As I all the time say, you will get HIT and BLK within the mixture from different gamers, however guys who can produce at a 90+ level price should not simple to seek out.
Then there’s Demidov. In his first full season he accomplished fairly effectively, touchdown on PP1 and scoring at an excellent price given his TOI. In truth, Demidov’s factors per 60 minutes places him forward of, Mitch Marner, Brayden Level, and Filip Forsberg to call only a few. Now though his scoring tempo has slowed since a virtually level per recreation second quarter, that’s seemingly because of the grind of a full NHL season and him by no means having performed even 50 video games at any prior degree. It is good that he’s on PP1, as if not then I would fear about him being Nicolaj Ehlers 2.0, specifically a participant who did effectively regardless of restricted ice time, however whose state of affairs by no means improved. Nonetheless although, Demidov is just not nice in HIT or BLK both, and thus though he’s 14 years youthful than Panarin, he may not have extra worth for at the very least a number of extra seasons.
One possibility is to not maintain Sorokin, and as an alternative maintain each skaters. However in the case of goalies, Sorokin is a uncommon breed in that he’s an entrenched #1. Nonetheless, you mentioned you’ve got loads of early picks, so my recommendation can be to not maintain whoever you’re feeling can be best to redraft. Sure, you’ve got solely been within the league for 2 seasons; nonetheless, it is best to have a good concept of when these guys would get drafted. Use that to select who’s the odd man out. Personally, I would not maintain Demidov and maintain Panarin till he’s now not as stable of a scorer, plus the Sorokin positive factor. However you already know your league greatest, so I can get behind preserving Demidov one of many different two for those who suppose both of them can be simpler to redraft.
As for buying and selling for Hughes and Carlsson, for those who say this GM is shrewd and never prone to comply with a deal that might favor you, then I would not dwell on this. Certain – one or each can be a keeper for you; nonetheless, at what price would they arrive by? And would you be making your staff higher however on the similar time that staff “extra higher”? By all means have interaction in a dialogue with the GM; but when it is getting nowhere, then stroll away and persist with what you’ve got. Good luck!
Query #2 (from Me)
What’s the seemingly outlook for Columbus’ goaltending in 2026-27? But once more Elvis Merzlikins is faring poorly, however in contrast to in earlier seasons there may be now a greater possibility in Jet Greaves. Additionally, Elvis’ deal ends after 2026-27, with Greaves set to be an RFA after this season. Is all of it however assured the staff will hand the reins to Greaves, or would possibly Elvis have considered one of his 9 lives nonetheless left?
In brief, through the offseason there’s an excellent probability these questions both are answered, or there will likely be a much less cloudy image than now. For one, we’ll see how a lot Greaves is signed for, plus how lengthy. We’ll additionally know if Columbus needs – and, if that’s the case, is ready – to commerce Merzlikins.
I do know some have likened what’s taking place in Columbus to what occurred in Seattle, with Joey Daccord being Greaves and Merzlikins being Philipp Grubauer. However I believe it is not apples to apples. For one, Daccord was already 27 when he emerged (versus 24 for Greaves), and Grubauer 33 when he faltered, whereas Elvis is nearly to show 32 and has been awful for a number of years. And that too is s key level, which is for fairly some time Grubauer had put up stable numbers enjoying 35-40 video games per season, whereas if you boil it down Merzlikins actually solely had stable numbers in his first two campaigns, throughout which he performed solely a complete of 61 video games.
Paradoxically, the $5.4M Elvis earns, which was cited to justify why Columbus needed to maintain giving him possibilities to proper his ship, is not that a lot, and as such may permit him to stay round as a back-up and kind of insurance coverage coverage if Greaves can not deal with the load of being a real starter. If there’s an apt analogy, I believe it is to St. Louis, the place this season Joel Hofer has completely outplayed Jordan Binnington, who appears to solely shine on the brightest of phases but for a few years remained the starter attributable to being paid $6.0M. Like Elvis, Binnington’s deal ends after subsequent season and $6M is just not practically as massive a price ticket because it as soon as was, so Binnington might be relegated to back-up/insurance coverage coverage.
How would possibly Greaves fare if tasked with being a real starter? Among the many 21 goalies who’ve began 40+ video games, Greaves stands fifth in high quality begin proportion, however in the course of the pack for actually unhealthy begin proportion. He’s additionally sixth in GSAA amongst all goalies, forward of the likes of Filip Gustavsson, Jake Oettinger, Connor Hellebuyck, and Karel Vejmelka to call only a few. His ES SV% is .912, which is stable however not spectacular, and it is a comparable story for his SV% on the PP and PK.
The place concern arises is the actual fact his SV% on at some point relaxation is .898, as a real #1 goalie will most frequently play each different day. However his excessive hazard SV% is third amongst goalies who’ve performed in 40+ video games. What’s attention-grabbing is the typical distance of the objectives he is allowed is 23.69 toes, which the very best distance for any goalie with 500+ saves on the season. Who’re these with the following highest averages? For essentially the most half, very unhealthy goalies, together with Merzlikins, Jacob Markstrom, Tristan Jarry, Alex Nedeljkovic, and John Gibson, with solely Igor Shesterkin, Jeremy Swayman and Dan Vladar being over 22 and stable goalies.
Nonetheless, Greaves has proven so much, and Rick Bowness, who I am unable to think about will not be put in because the official head coach for subsequent season, is popping to Greaves increasingly. My guess is Greaves ought to begin upwards of fifty video games subsequent season, with stats at the very least pretty much as good, if not higher, than he is put up in 2025-26.
Query #3 (from Me)
Regardless of being practically 36 years previous and scoring beneath a 60 level tempo in 5 of the final six seasons, Erik Karlsson appears revitalized for 2025-26. Is that this simply an unsustainable scoring burst, or can he proceed to defy father time?
After producing solely 9 extra factors in 164 video games over the previous two seasons than he did in 82 video games in 2022-23, Karlsson has fared a lot better for 2025-26. On the floor, issues appear cheap given his TOIs, each general and on the PP, in addition to his SOG price and private SH%. However earlier than everybody will get forward of themselves and thinks he has turn into extra of the Karlsson of previous, let’s look extra carefully on the numbers.
Karlsson’s TOI is up versus 2024-25, however not as in comparison with 2023-24 when his scoring price was solely 56 factors. Additionally, Karlsson went from averaging a mere 9 seconds of PK obligation in 2023-24, to 1:58 per recreation in 2025-26, and with no SHPs to indicate for it. So in essence, Karlsson went from 24 minutes of non-SH TOI in 2023-24, to underneath 22 minutes this season. But by some means he is scoring a lot better? One thing appears to be not including up.
Certain sufficient, the Pens are taking pictures 11.7% at 5×5 when Karlsson is on the ice; and though he had many high tier scoring seasons in his profession, simply as soon as beforehand – when he had 101 factors – did he ever have a 5×5 staff SH% in double digits, at 10.5%. What was it the previous two seasons? 8.0% and 9.8%, with 9.8% being his third highest whole ever. Do I purchase that he is enhancing on this space, at this age? Nope, and you shouldn’t both. That quantity will come down, as will his scoring.
Additionally, regardless of the added SH obligation, Karlsson’s OZ% is greater than 2023-24, which doesn’t add up. And if we have a look at Karlsson’s IPPs, they aren’t massively greater, however atypically greater sufficient to have the ability to assist clarify a bounce in scoring of roughly what we’re seeing as in comparison with 2024-25 and 2023-24, particularly since his secondary help price could be very a lot in step with prior seasons, which means he is not going to realize or lose factors attributable to that issue.
I am unable to return in time and have a look at Karlsson’s metrics for the present season earlier than his torrid play of late (25 factors in 16 video games); nonetheless, taking a look at his hottest stretches in every of the previous two seasons, he posted 13 factors in 11 video games at one stage of 2024-25 and 13 factors in eight video games in 2023-24. Not practically as scorching as what he is doing now; nonetheless, for him to be doing what he is doing is just not an indication that he is found the fountain of youth, however as an alternative that he has caught lightning in a bottle, simply on this case with a much more spectacular interval of explosive scoring than regular.
In brief, even when by some means Karlsson manages to maintain his scoring tempo above 65, and even simply 60 for the rest of this season, don’t rely on a repeat of what we’re seeing come 2026-27. His play now’s each hotter and lasting longer than standard, plus his added PK obligation cuts in opposition to him having the ability to produce at this price over the course of a complete season.
Query #4 (from Me too)
As standard, many of the large names who had been set to be UFAs have been locked as much as contracts earlier than hitting the open market. Realizing that you simply run an annual ballot about potential UFA disappointments, are there any you see as prone to do effectively?
Certainly one of the best of one of the best are now not out there, with, as I write this, only one participant (Darren Raddysh) with 60+ factors set to be a UFA. Nonetheless, I believe groups can mine the marketplace for just a few gems.
I’ve favored what I am seeing from Bobby McMann. He is hit the bottom operating in Seattle, which isn’t simple to do given how stingy they’re with TOI. However earlier than that, he had a stretch of 15 factors in 17 video games for Toronto. Additionally, though he solely has 43 factors on the season, he has 9 video games of two factors and one with three. Consistency can come; nonetheless, explosiveness is commonly harder to acquire if it isn’t innate. His TOIs and SOG price have gone up with every passing quarter. He’s about to show 30 however simply hit his 200 recreation breakout threshold. I additionally love that his general IPP is 71.7% and it is a fair greater 75.0% on the PP, on high of solely 6 of his 17 assists being secondary. He is not fairly a come from nowhere story like fellow UFA to be Raddysh, however he is standing out, and in a great way.
The following participant I am most likely jinxing by mentioning, however Anthony Mantha has had an awesome season and appears to be rounding again into the shape that noticed him peak at a 73 level tempo earlier than accidents took maintain. Sure, his SOG price is approach down as in comparison with that season; nonetheless, him changing into a extra selective shooter explains his main rise is SH%. His ice time is low for a way effectively he is scoring; however for some gamers much less can certainly be extra, particularly in his case because it permits him to have an OZ% of 64.2%. Both that goes down, however he performs extra, or it stays excessive, and he can produce according to how he’s now. I’m involved that he stays weak on the PP, as failure to attain effectively with the person benefit seemingly will relegate him to PP2, though that’s basically the place he is been for many of this season. After all he additionally must dodge the damage bug, which has been so troublesome for thus many seasons. He is prone to be a danger/reward gamble, albeit fairly low danger since even when he retains up his tempo over the remainder of 2025-26, I anticipate that he will likely be worth to draft or to acquire in commerce, so I am taking that gamble.
Additionally, do not look now, however John Carlson is operating PP1 for Anaheim. I may see him doing, for no matter staff indicators him, what Brent Burns did in his first season with Carolina. In spite of everything, for those who signal Carlson, are you not going to have him run PP1? If not, then why get him? He may decide to remain in Anaheim, however I ponder if he goes to San Jose, to assist Sam Dickinson or Luka Cagnoni bide time earlier than they’re able to be a PP QB, and if he does he may pile on the factors. He will not be a draft or commerce cut price like Mantha and even McMann, however he has real residence run potential.
Lastly, though they each have been used extra usually as wingers of late, I may see a state of affairs the place both Claude Giroux or Evgeni Malkin are inked by Minnesota to heart Kirill Kaprizov, who has seen his scoring shrink attributable to being centered primarily by Ryan Hartman and Danil Yurov. I get that each veterans are practically 40; nonetheless, Malkin is doing nice and Giroux may step up if given higher deployment. Do I believe both one will do effectively in the event that they go elsewhere? Unclear; nonetheless, if both does get inked by the Wild I may see them doing nice issues.
Query #5 (from Me once more)
Is it time to get again on the Alexis Lafreniere prepare? Because the departure of Artemi Panarin, he is been the participant many had lengthy awaited. However is it believable that because the staff round him has turn into worse he is by some means gotten higher?
I am considerably shocked that Laffy’s stretch of sturdy play since Panarin’s departure has not garnered extra consideration. I believe it is as a result of persons are skeptical because it’s occurring so lengthy after Laffy’s 200-game breakout threshold and in addition as a result of Panarin has such an extended historical past of creating these round him higher. Additionally, individuals might really feel like Laffy teased them earlier than, ending with 18 factors in 17 video games through the 2023-24 season, solely to have one other disappointing season in 2024-25.
that 2023-24 information, there was a 5 level recreation, 4 video games with two factors, but additionally seven with no factors. In brief, he was in all places. Throughout his present stretch, he has 22 factors in 18 video games, and amongst them 4 video games with three factors, three with two factors, however seven with zero and simply 4 with a single level. So not fairly as excessive, however equally feast or famine. He had 46 SOG in these 17 video games in 2023-24, and his SOG price is comparable, as is his ratio of objectives to assists throughout this present stretch. In brief, we have seen this earlier than from Laffy, however can he stick with it this time?
What about comparables? Going again to 1990-91, right here is the listing of forwards who, by age 23 and like Laffy, had performed 350+ video games however tallied underneath 200 factors: Scott Hartnell, David Legwand, Jeff O’Neill, Elias Lindholm, Sam Bennett, Tom Wilson, Sean Couturier, Patrik Stafan, Marco Sturm, and Ryan Smyth.
What to make of those comparisons? Hartnell and Wilson should not Laffy kind gamers, O’Neill and Smyth had scored 60+ factors at the very least as soon as of their first 4 seasons, Lindholm and Couturier are facilities, as is Bennett, and Sturm by no means actually panned out. In sum, these do not counsel Laffy is probably going morphing into a degree per recreation participant earlier than our eyes, though in equity most of those gamers had greater TOIs than Laffy, and had been usually used on PP1, so he would possibly defy comparability to any of them.
The PP does appear to distinguish what’s taking place now versus what occurred in 2023-24, as when he thrived then solely a kind of 18 factors got here on the PP, whereas now he is racked up seven PPPts in 18 video games. That is quite a bit, and it helps make it extra real looking to suppose he will not come crashing again to earth subsequent season like he did in 2024-25, since he is getting used on PP1 now for the primary sustained time ever, and is producing nice.
One thing else to think about is the sustained success of the Rangers since Laffy entered the league was really working in opposition to him, for the reason that staff was doing effectively and did not need to lean on him. So when he did not step up, he did not get nice deployment. Now the staff has much less surrounding expertise and “wants” Laffy, which means he is being put into place to succeed and certainly succeeding. Sure, he did get loads of possibilities alongside Panarin and the opposite better of one of the best for New York, however their expertise was not working for him however seemingly in opposition to him. With nobody to syphon factors from him, he is piling them on. If we needed to guess as to what the 2026-27 Rangers will appear to be, it is most likely just like now, with out the extent of expertise from previous seasons. That ought to permit Laffy to stall deployed how he is being deployed now, and, in flip, to have a larger probability of carrying his success into subsequent season.
Though lots of Laffy’s numbers might be likened to 2023-24, his TOI is greater, he is on PP1, and he is getting PPPts. In brief, for the primary time the Rangers “want” Laffy, and he is responding. If I needed to predict what 2026-27 will maintain for Laffy, I believe he has a sensible shot of 70+ factors, with a greater probability of rising to 80 than falling beneath 60.
Query #6 (from the Additionally Me)
Is it too early to be involved about Luke Hughes? He is not doing badly, however he is additionally not progressing. Have been expectations too excessive given his pedigree, or can he flip into 60+ level defenseman?
I included Hughes among the many selections for my ballot final week masking essentially the most overrated skaters in fantasy, not as a result of I would accomplished an in-depth evaluation on him however as an alternative as a result of individuals had held him in such excessive regard attributable to his stable rookie season and him being the brother of two true stars. He then acquired the sixth most votes of the 20 selections, which does counsel individuals really feel he’s disappointing in relation to how he’s nonetheless valued.
Fact be informed, it is laborious to not see Hughes’ output since his rookie season as subpar. No, his scoring hasn’t cratered; nonetheless, he hasn’t made good points both. Plus, this season his TOI is up practically two minutes per recreation. Sure, half of that added TOI has sadly been within the type of PK obligation; nonetheless, his PPTOI is up by 21 seconds and, maybe most significantly, his offensive zone beginning proportion is 56.7%, versus 53.8% final season, which really interprets to extra of a rise attributable to his added PK minutes. Or to place it one other approach, for his OZ% to have upticked regardless of a minute extra of PK time per recreation, throughout which much more usually these on the ice will begin their shift within the defensive zone, reveals that he is getting sufficient offensive zone begins to not solely offset his PK minutes, however to see his internet OZ% rise. In brief, though he is not a rookie and has added PK obligation, he is being considerably sheltered, or, to place it one other approach, he is being put able to offer offense, and he is not doing so, which is regarding.
Hughes’ different metrics, he’s taking pictures extra, averaging 2.2 per recreation, up from 1.7 final season. However regardless of getting extra PP time, his PP scoring price is decrease than final season, when it was decrease than his rookie marketing campaign. Issues there should not trending effectively, and solely will get worse from there because the Devils are taking pictures 7.5% with him on the ice, which, regardless of being so low, is a profession excessive. How low is it? Of the 190 defensemen who’ve performed 40+ video games this season, it ranks him 163rd. It could be one factor if it was a fluke, but in three seasons it has been simply as low. Very regarding. On high of that, he is on tempo for 59.3% of his assists to be secondary. Sure, defensemen charges ought to be greater than these of forwards; however solely 4 of the 30 defensemen with extra assists than him have the next price. It isn’t astoundingly excessive, as many are proper round 50%; nonetheless, that is one thing which suggests he is attributable to shed factors reasonably than make good points.
Nonetheless, not all the things is horrible. Hughes’ PP IPP is 73.3%, and was 84.2% final season. That’s stellar; however one does need to marvel to what extent it is a byproduct of him being on PP2 versus PP1. However it’s a first rate signal, as is his general IPP of 49.3%, which places him firmly inside the high 30 defensemen. But how a lot worth is there in him being a factors magnet if factors aren’t being scored with him on the ice attributable to his extraordinarily low staff SH%? The reply is, not so much, as factors need to be scored before everything or it would not matter whether or not you are a factors magnet or not.
Conserving in thoughts defensemen breakouts usually correlate to the 400-game mark, and Hughes nonetheless has a methods to go to get there. All is most actually is just not misplaced, however his constantly low 5×5 staff SH% is a serious concern, as is his scoring not rising regardless of the next OZ%. I believe there may be rightful purpose to doubt if he can turn into a defenseman who will ever hit 60 factors, with him maybe peaking within the 50s.
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To get mailbag inquiries to me both (1) e-mail them to [email protected] with the phrases “Roos Mailbag” as the topic line, or (2) ship them to me by way of a personal message on the DobberHockey Boards, the place my username is “rizzeedizzee”.
When sending me your questions, bear in mind to offer as a lot element about your league/state of affairs as doable. Examples of issues I have to know embrace what kind of league you are in (i.e., restricted keeper, dynasty, or one-year; roto vs. H2H; public sale – if that’s the case, what the finances is – or non-auction), what number of groups are within the league, does the wage cap matter, what number of gamers are rostered (and of these, what number of begin at every place in addition to what number of bench and/or IR spots there are), what classes are scored and the way are they weighted, plus different particulars if pertinent. In case your query includes whether or not to select up or drop a participant, give me a listing of high free brokers out there and let me know if the variety of pick-ups is restricted or if there’s a precedence system for pick-ups. For those who’re considering of creating a commerce, it might be good to know not solely the roster of the opposite staff you would possibly commerce with but additionally the place you stand in your classes. In case your query includes keepers, along with giving me the choices for who to maintain, let me know if offseason buying and selling is allowed and to what extent it’s a viable possibility given your league. In sum, the secret’s to inform me sufficient for me to offer you a very correct reply, and for readers of this column to learn from the reply/recommendation I present. When doubtful, it is best to err on the aspect of inclusion since I can all the time omit or disregard issues that do not matter.
