Barry Trotz introduced he will likely be stepping down as Normal Supervisor for the Nashville Predators. He’ll keep within the position till the workforce finds a alternative, which may take till the top of the common season, however this will likely be his final season as GM. He additionally stated that he is not going to be searching for teaching duties elsewhere, so this can be a real retirement from him.
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After being introduced as day-to-day over the weekend, Jack Hughes was not on the ice for New Jersey’s observe on Monday morning. The Devils have a pair of dwelling video games on Tuesday and Thursday, so we’ll see if he can get in a sport earlier than the Olympic break, but it surely’s not a certainty proper now.
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Ondrej Palat was on the highest line for the New York Islanders on Monday evening, skating with Bo Horvat and Mathew Barzal. All three had been additionally on the highest power-play unit collectively. That’s quickly dangerous information for guys like Emil Heineman, Jonathan Drouin, and Anthony Duclair, but it surely’s actually excellent news for Palat. The Islanders have two extra video games earlier than the Olympic break, so any fantasy supervisor determined for some video games performed ought to at the very least examine the waiver wire.
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Colorado welcomed defenceman Devon Toews again to the lineup on Monday evening. He had missed over 4 weeks with an upper-body harm however is again in time to get a few video games in earlier than taking off for Italy and the Olympics.
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In every of my Ramblings final week, regression was the subject, specializing in the timeframe since December 1st:
As we speak, we’re ending the quartet of Ramblings by going again to defencemen and selecting a handful which might be displaying the hallmarks of unfavorable regression. For this, we’re primarily specializing in the distinction between the anticipated goals-for (xGF) price and precise goals-for (GF) price with particular gamers on the ice, in addition to a participant’s Particular person Factors Proportion (IPP, or the speed they’re garnering some extent when their workforce scores a objective with them on the ice).
We’re utilizing knowledge from Evolving Hockey since December 1st solely, limiting our pattern to defencemen with at the very least 250 minutes performed in that stretch, and the info is present as of Monday, February 2nd.
Charlie McAvoy (Boston Bruins)
The Ramblings on forwards with unfavorable regression highlighted David Pastrnak, so it is becoming that we see Charlie McAvoy right here. That is additionally a little bit of an issue as a result of McAvoy’s pictures and hits per sport are each three-year lows, so if the purpose manufacturing begins declining, there is not the identical cushion in peripherals as there had been in current seasons.
And there’s trigger for concern with McAvoy’s level manufacturing. Right here is McAvoy’s season because it pertains to the distinction between anticipated goals-for per 60 minutes and precise goals-for per 60 minutes when he is on the ice, in addition to his IPP, with league averages in every marked by the purple and blue dotted strains:
It is not arduous to purchase the truth that McAvoy taking part in with Pastrňák round 35% of the time at 5-on-5, in addition to on the highest PP unit, will afford some leeway in that xGF-GF differential. What’s more durable to purchase is McAvoy figuring in on practically 55% of Boston’s targets when he is on the ice contemplating that is his ninth NHL season and only one of the earlier 8 seasons noticed him exceed a forty five% IPP. It has given him an additional 4-5 factors over his final 25 video games, or roughly 15 factors over a full season. That could be a lot, and when that begins coming down, there is not the identical stage of pictures and blocks to assist float his worth in multi-cat codecs. On high of that, Boston has the second-hardest schedule after the Olympic break by opponent factors proportion (per Frozen Instruments). McAvoy fantasy managers shouldn’t be anticipating him to publish 20+ factors over the workforce’s last 25 video games.
Shayne Gostisbehere (Carolina Hurricanes)
Whereas Gostisbehere does not match out standards for the xGF-GF differential, he additionally performs for the Carolina Hurricanes, and a franchise infamous for creating extra xGF than GF going again years. What actually stands proud for Ghost is that since December 1st, he has the second-highest IPP price of all defencemen in our pattern, exceeding 62%:
For a body of reference right here, Ghost is a defenceman who does determine in on targets greater than most – his 53.3% IPP from 2022-2025 is a top-10 mark within the league. So, Ghost seeing a two-month stretch going over 60% is not uncommon for him. Nonetheless, simply being 55% as an alternative of over 62% the place he is been means 2-3 fewer factors, or round 10 for a full season. That does matter.
In all honesty, this can be a case the place if I’ve Ghost on my fantasy roster, and I am unable to get again a top-125 participant who can fill a gap on my squad, I in all probability simply dangle onto him. Carolina’s schedule from March 2nd onward – or across the begin of head-to-head playoffs – is healthier than the league common and if Carolina’s energy play can hold rolling, he might be very productive down the stretch. There are indicators of unfavorable regression, but it surely’s in all probability not sufficient to make me commerce him except I can get a top-125 skater again in return.
Brandon Montour (Seattle Kraken)
Harm stored Montour out of the lineup for a month, so his pattern of video games on this stretch (16) shouldn’t be as excessive because the others. He has additionally been productive since getting back from his harm with 6 factors, 23 pictures, 9 blocks, and 9 hits in 9 video games. That’s the form of across-the-board manufacturing that fantasy managers drafted him for all these months in the past.
The problem with Montour’s manufacturing is that he is figured in on lots of targets. Over these final 16 video games, Montour has gotten concerned in 53.3% of the Kraken’s targets scored with him on the ice:
For some context right here, Montour’s three-year common previous to this season was 43.6% and his first full yr with the Kraken noticed him at 46%. Even worse is that if we have a look at Montour’s whole 2025-26 season, his IPP is 62.9%, which is second within the league behind Zach Werenski. That’s exceptionally excessive, and much increased than something Montour has ever accomplished in a single season (the best IPP for any season the place he is performed at the very least 50 video games is 51% again in 2018-19).
Given the hole between xGF and GF, maybe the Kraken begin scoring much more targets with Montour on the ice, and that helps soften the blow for when that IPP begins declining. However as of proper now, Seattle has gained 5 of their final six video games and the highest PP unit has been productive with Vince Dunn working issues. With out high PP time, and with that pending IPP regression, Montour’s manufacturing ought to take an enormous hit down the stretch.
Mattias Samuelsson (Buffalo Sabres)
It has been an unimaginable two months for Buffalo as they lead the NHL in factors (43) and factors proportion (.741), are second by targets per sport, and fifth by targets towards per sport. In January alone, Samuelsson had 13 factors in 15 video games, and his 32 factors is over double his prior career-best mark of 14 set final yr. It should not come as a lot shock, then, that the Sabres’ goal-scoring price with Samuelsson on the ice is significantly increased than the xGF price during the last two months, to the purpose the place the differential is among the highest within the league:
Over the past two months, Samuelsson’s on-ice xGF/60 much less his on-ice GF/60 price is about -1.17. For a body of reference right here, in 2024-25, the league chief on this regard was at -0.59. Even with the anticipated targets over-counting we talked about in these earlier Ramblings, Samuelsson’s price is way out of line.
With all of the ice time Samuelsson has been getting (23:50 per sport on this span), and the peripherals that has led to (1.8 blocks and 1.9 hits per sport), multi-cat homeowners could wish to dangle onto Samuelsson regardless. However these in additional points-focused fantasy codecs ought to in all probability get out now, particularly the place he is taking pictures 12.5%, or over 3x increased than his three-year common (4.1%).
Josh Manson (Colorado Avalanche)
Samuelsson’s xGF/60 much less GF/60 price is -1.17, which is the second-lowest mark within the league. Not far off is Manson’s price of -0.9, which is the fourth-lowest mark within the league, and in contrast to Samuelsson, Manson has a fairly excessive IPP price:
For a little bit of readability right here, Manson’s IPP on this stretch is over 50%. He has by no means had a full season in his profession over 50%, and has only one season the place he performed at the very least 50 video games and exceeded 45% (48.1% in 2017-18 with Anaheim). His three-year common with Colorado from 2022-2025 was 41.3%, so he is clearly been working a bit scorching by IPP during the last couple of months.
The actual downside is that xGF/GF differential. Even for Colorado, Manson’s differential is over 40% decrease than the next-closest teammate. As a workforce, the Avalanche’s xGF/60 price in that span (3.93) was increased than their GF/60 price (3.66). Manson is an enormous outlier right here, and it is a large purpose why he has 19 factors in 28 video games during the last two months.
For now, fantasy managers could wish to maintain onto Manson as a result of he is skating practically two extra minutes per sport because the harm to Devon Toews, and skating 19-20 minutes a sport for the Avalanche will hold him related in lots of codecs. Nonetheless, Toews has returned so Manson goes to lose that ice time and be irrelevant in points-heavy fantasy codecs. In banger leagues, Manson will in all probability nonetheless be fantastic due to his excessive hit quantity.
