We’re beginning to hit these lighter nights on the NHL schedule the place there’s simply not a lot to cowl, and tonight is considered one of them. With no video games on faucet, I made a decision to take a deeper dive into a number of gamers for one motive or one other, did not absolutely take that subsequent step. In plenty of instances, it comes all the way down to alternative not fairly catching up but resembling shifting roles, inconsistent linemates, or groups nonetheless determining how you can finest deploy them within the lineup. The important thing distinction on this group is how the manufacturing is definitely being generated. Some gamers lean on shot quantity and regular involvement within the offense, others are extra finish-driven and power-play dependent, and some are nonetheless ready on steady roles earlier than their numbers can absolutely scale. When you strip away the uncooked level totals, the separation turns into clearer between these producing inside sturdy environments and people whose output remains to be closely context-driven.
Josh Norris reaching the 70-point mark actually comes down to 1 issue above every part else: well being. The offensive expertise has by no means actually been the priority, however sturdiness continues to forestall him from absolutely placing every part collectively over a whole season. Norris nonetheless has not performed a full NHL season and has but to even hit the 70-game mark as soon as in his profession. His excessive stays 66 video games again in 2021-22, which additionally occurred to be the perfect offensive season of his profession from a PPG perspective at 0.83. This previous season adopted a well-known sample, restricted to simply 44 video games due to a number of accidents, although the manufacturing remained sturdy with a 0.77 PPG tempo, the second-best mark of his profession. Buffalo appears to be like much more aggressive than in earlier years, and the roster has began trending in the best route. Extra assist all through the lineup ought to assist create higher offensive situations total, particularly for a participant like Norris who thrives when he has expert playmakers round him and constant power-play deployment.
That stated, when you dig into the underlying profile, there are nonetheless causes for warning. Norris produced at a 63-point tempo this season and his 5v5 scoring outcomes had been sturdy, however plenty of the manufacturing leaned closely on effectivity moderately than quantity. His on-ice numbers had been inflated by percentages which might be troublesome to confidently undertaking 12 months over 12 months. Norris completed with a 1024 PDO at 5v5, pushed largely by a 12.5% on-ice S%. There was additionally a spot between precise and anticipated objectives, along with his line scoring 37 at even energy on simply 25.1 anticipated. That degree of overperformance often factors to regression danger. Function additionally stays a part of the equation. His deployment has been extra balanced than closely offensive, which naturally caps a few of the upside from a fantasy perspective. On the finish of the day, Norris nonetheless profiles extra like a powerful 60–65-point participant than a participant who can take hit that subsequent tier. It is to not say it is not attainable; nonetheless, he would want to remain wholesome, retains his power-play function, and will get steady top-six deployment for a full 12 months. Every part would want to interrupt completely for that to occur.
Mantha’s profession arc tells a reasonably constant story: sturdy per-minute manufacturing, flashes of top-line ending capacity, and simply sufficient inconsistency in utilization and well being to cap his ceiling within the mid-60s.
This previous season in Pittsburgh was one other instance of that stability. Mantha completed with 64 factors in 81 video games, producing at a 65-point tempo. On the floor, that appears shut sufficient to counsel a 70-point season might nonetheless occur underneath the best circumstances. There are undoubtedly positives within the profile that assist that concept. His 21.7 S% was extraordinarily excessive, however even with some regression, Mantha nonetheless initiatives as an environment friendly finisher. His 3.1 PTS/60 at 5v5 was legitimately sturdy, whereas his 7.4 SOG/60 confirmed he remained concerned sufficient offensively to maintain strong manufacturing. He additionally benefited from favorable deployment, beginning over 63% of his shifts within the offensive zone, which naturally helped enhance his counting stats.
The issue is that the constraints present up simply as clearly when you dig deeper. Mantha nonetheless shouldn’t be a real play driver. His 47.9 CF% and close to break-even 50.7 xGF% level towards a participant who advantages extra from his setting than controls it himself. That issues when making an attempt to undertaking a bounce from the mid-60s into the 70-point vary as a result of gamers who persistently attain that degree often drive play at even energy or produce at an elite degree on the ability play. Mantha has not persistently accomplished both. Regardless of spending time with high-end expertise, he completed with simply 13 PPP’s and has by no means actually profiled as a high-end playmaker.
At even energy, he moved all through the lineup, spending important time with gamers like Justin Brazeau and Ben Kindel whereas solely getting temporary stretches alongside Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby. His finest offensive runs often got here briefly bursts with stronger linemates, however total, the deployment leaned extra middle-six than true top-line utilization.
The uncertainty round Pittsburgh’s veteran core is of concern and it cuts each methods for Mantha. On one hand, ought to Mantha return to Pittsburgh it might open up extra utilization, doubtlessly pushing him into a bigger offensive function with elevated TOI and extra power-play duty. However, it seemingly weakens the general offensive ecosystem. Mantha has traditionally been a complementary scorer, so eradicating these elite linemates from the equation might in all probability harm his effectivity greater than elevated quantity would assist it.
Dorofeyev is a really totally different case in comparison with the earlier names you have labored by way of. He’s a participant who has already taken that subsequent step and is now making an attempt to show the manufacturing is repeatable at a better tier.
His 64-point season jumps off the web page and the most important driver has been elite deployment. He spent important time using shotgun with Mitch Marner and Tomas Hertl at even energy, and was additionally a staple on a loaded prime power-play unit alongside Jack Eichel and Mark Stone. That unit alone accounted for 20 of his 30 power-play factors, which is an enormous chunk of his total manufacturing. His S% at 16.1% is elevated, however not outrageous for a participant getting high-end appears to be like in a premium offensive function. His 2.8 pictures per recreation price paired with 9.6 SOG/60 suggests this wasn’t a passive passenger function. He was actively driving offense inside these strains, not simply ending performs.
Even his xGF at 5v5 (49.33) intently align with precise output (48 GF at 5v5), which is a powerful indicator that what we noticed wasn’t purely luck-driven. The important thing query is not whether or not Dorofeyev can produce, however whether or not he can keep this precise setting. His worth is closely tied to function insulation. He benefited from elite linemates and a top-tier energy play that was working at a particularly environment friendly clip. He has presently posted 11 factors in 12 playoff video games with 9 of these being objectives and his major line mates have been Jack Eichel and Ivan Barbashev whereas additionally seeing time on the to man-advantage.
Dorofeyev completed at a 64-point tempo over a full 82-game season, so we’re not asking for an enormous leap, simply marginal development. The bottom line is, if he holds the identical function, a bump to 70 is completely inside attain. Even a slight improve in assists, which is feasible given the expertise round him, might get him there with no need one other bounce in aim scoring.
Byfield’ s instruments, development, and impression are all there, however the way in which he was being deployed was capping him within the field rating. The numbers are clearly underwhelming with back-to-back seasons hovering within the mid-50s adopted by a slight dip to 49 factors giving the impression of stalled development. Nonetheless, all of his underlying numbers counsel that Byfield remains to be driving play at a powerful degree. He’s actively concerned in producing offense moderately than simply using shotgun. His PTS/60 dropped from 2.5 to 1.9, and his shot price sits at 6.8 SOG/60, which is modest for somebody anticipated to anchor a prime line. That is the important thing rigidity in his profile proper now. A giant a part of that comes again to deployment. His offensive zone begin price fell and he has been leaned on in additional balanced conditions which pulled down his counting stats. The revolving door of linemates did not’ helped both. Whereas there have been stretches alongside Kevin Fiala and Adrian Kempe, his longest run got here with Trevor Moore and Alex Laferriere. Strong gamers, however not the type of elite finishers who persistently convert possibilities at a excessive price. Add in time with extra defensively inclined wingers like Joel Armia and Warren Foegele, and the offensive setting has lacked consistency. For a participant nonetheless defining his offensive id, that issues.
The clearest cap on his upside exhibits up on the ability play. Regardless of logging shut to 2 minutes per recreation, much like is PP TOI the earlier season, he completed with simply 11 energy play factors 4 greater than final season. The difficulty is not inefficiency, it is function. He isn’t the focus. That also ran by way of Anze Kopitar, Fiala, and Kempe. Byfield’s PPIPP sat at 52.4%, which displays extra of a secondary, assist function moderately than a major creator or shooter. Till these modifications, the ceiling stays restricted.
We may even see his manufacturing change for the higher subsequent season now that Anze Kopitar will not be in his method and the latest addition of Artemi Panarin previous to the commerce deadline. He is already logging over 20 minutes an evening and holding his personal in all conditions, which is a powerful basis. The query is not capacity, it is setting. Till we see extra of a steady offensive function, it is onerous to imagine the bounce in manufacturing.
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