Welcome again to a different version of the Roos Lets Free month-to-month mailbag, the place I reply your fantasy hockey questions by giving recommendation that ought to be helpful to all poolies even when they do not personal the precise gamers being mentioned. As a reminder, if you’d like your fantasy hockey query(s) answered within the subsequent mailbag, try the tip of the column, the place I clarify the methods to get it/them to me in addition to the small print you must present when sending. The sooner you ship a query the extra possible it’s to be included within the mailbag, and the deeper dive I can present with my reply.
Query #1 (from Martin)
This 12 months I’m in a bind as a result of I’ve too many good gamers to maintain. It’s a 9 crew, factors solely league with goalies getting two factors for a win, one for an OT loss, and two further for a shutout. We have now weekly lineups of 12F,4D,1G. We will preserve 9 “common” gamers and as much as 12 “rookies” that are outlined as having performed <200 profession NHL video games if a skater or <121 profession video games if a goalie.
My determined “common” keepers thus far are Nathan MacKinnon, Leon Draisaitl, Kyle Connor, Brandon Hagel, Dylan Strome, Sebastian Aho, Rasmus Dahlin and Shea Theodore. I traded each Mikhail Sergachev and Miro Heiskanen for 2 rookies, leaving me with these choices for my final non-rookie keeper: Matt Boldy, Brady Tkachuk, Cole Caufield, Roman Josi, Devon Toews, and Jakub Chychrun. I might additionally preserve Ilya Sorokin, however I intend to go “zero G.” My rookie keepers are Lane Hutson, Jackson LaCombe, Jordan Spence, Kayden Guhle, Henry Thrun, Adam Jiricek, Yaroslav Askarov, Joel Hofer, Connor Ingram, Jakob Pelletier, Dalibor Dvorsky, and Pavel Dorofeyev.
I’m leaning in direction of one of many forwards for my final common keeper, provided that I have already got Hutson as a rookie D; however I simply can’t determine between them. I really feel that Caufield has the best ceiling of all three contemplating it’s factors solely however I worry that finally Boldy and/or Tkachuk might do higher. In fact it’s attainable to think about that Hagel and Strome’s performances final season had been bloated and that Boldy and Tkachuk are literally higher than them, however I’m actually hesitant to not preserve them. What do you advocate?
I am unsure which rookie(s) you acquired in return for Heiskanen and Sergachev, however I am fairly positive one wasn’t Hutson. I perceive you primarily felt you needed to commerce a minimum of one of many two d-men, since in any other case you’d have had 5 keeper D for 4 beginning spots. I can get behind that, however I might haven’t traded Sergachev, and as a substitute dealt Hagel or Strome. This is why.
Hagel had seven SHPs, after a previous excessive of solely three, plus had 72 even power factors. How, when he skated primarily solely 25% of his even power shifts with Kucherov and scored 18 even power factors, or simply about 25% of his 72 even power factors, with Kucherov within the ice? Most likely as a result of his SH% at 5×5 was 11.0%, simply a profession excessive, but that doesn’t jibe with Hagel’s 42.5% OZ%. For perspective, of the 73 forwards with a decrease OZ% who performed 60+ video games, the best scoring charge of any was linemate Anthony Cirelli at 60, and simply two others scored at a degree per each different sport charge.
As for Strome, his 19.6% private SH% definitely stands out, as when getting into 2024-25 his profession mark stood solely at 14.6%, that means he lucked into eight extra objectives than he should have scored. Additionally, his OZ% was 77.6%, after by no means having been even 65% in any prior season. Sure, that was on account of him being tethered to Alex Ovechkin; nevertheless, even Ovi’s mark of 80.0% was above his common charge of 73% to 75%, and certain was on account of his chase for the all-time aim scoring file. Though Strome’s general IPP was corresponding to 2023-24, his IPP on the PP was 82.9%, after by no means as soon as being even 69%. Merely put, Strome isn’t what we noticed in 2024-25.
At the very least a kind of two would have made for a greater promote than one in every of your D; and if I you needed to do it another time, I might have stored Sergachev. Sure, Heiskanen has a 73-point season to his credit score; however he has been on a downward slide ever since, and Thomas Harley looms. In the meantime, Sergachev is “the man” for what ought to be an additional improved Mammoth crew. However you possibly can’t undo what’s been achieved, so let’s concentrate on the right here and now.
Do Strome and Hagel advantage holding over your different choices although? I might truthfully say that I might fairly have the three of Caufield, Boldy, and Tkachuk over each of these two. All Caufield has achieved is see his scoring charge climb each season he is performed, and he nonetheless has room for beneficial properties within the regular course with respect to each ice time and PP scoring. Boldy was on his method to a breakout, till he misplaced his heart in Joel-Eriksson Ek and Minnesota’s PP catalyst in Kirill Kaprizov. With issues again to regular for 2025-26, Boldy ought to thrive. Tkachuk is in fact not at his greatest in factors solely; nevertheless, each his private and crew SH% numbers had been abnormally low, and he’s going to be within the prime six and on PP1. As for the D choices, I feel Josi has begun a slide from which gamers at his age hardly ever bounce again, whereas Toews is now not seeing spillover scoring profit from being stapled to Cale Makar as ES, and Chychrun possible will not run PP1 and has by no means been a scorer.
Because you sadly cannot undo the Sergachev commerce, I am holding Caufield, Boldy and Tkachuk over Hagel and Strome. The opposite possibility is to attempt to commerce one or each of Hagel and Strome to get a fair higher ahead. If you are able to do that, you then’d must determine which ahead of Caufield, Boldy, and Tkachuk to not preserve, and for me it is Tkachuk. His TOI ticked down and there may be much less certainty now that he’ll rise to the extent of his huge brother.
Query #2 (from Donald)
I am in 10 crew banger league with classes of G, A, +/-, PIM, PPP, SHP, SOG, FOW, HIT, BLK, W, GAA, SV, SV%, SHO and the place 2C, 2LW, 2RW, 4D, 1UTIL, 2G begin, plus there are 4 bench spots. We will preserve solely two gamers. Who, along with my “lock” preserve of Leon Draisaitl, would you retain amongst these gamers: Sidney Crosby (C), Mark Scheifele (C), Dylan Cozens (C), Sean Monahan (C), Alex Ovechkin (LW/RW), Cole Caufield (LW/RW), Quinton Byfield (LW/RW), Matthew Olivier (RW), Zach Werenski (D), Evan Bouchard (D), Rasmus Dahlin (D), and MacKenzie Weegar (D)?
Wanting on the record, I feel there are solely 4 in rivalry: Ovi, Werenski, Dahlin, and Weegar. Why Ovi, given how outdated he’s and this maybe being his final season within the NHL? As a result of in a keep-two you wish to preserve one of the best you might have, and never concentrate on the longer term, since with 20 gamers being stored every season amongst all groups there shall be ample alternative to seize an upside participant within the draft.
Let’s begin with Weegar. I understand everybody has woke up to him; nevertheless, regardless of the actual fact he was given the PP1 reins, his scoring charge declined. Additionally, Zayne Parekh looms, as does Rasmus Andersson, who the Flames appear to strive on PP1 each season and has added motivation as a UFA subsequent summer season. Make no mistake – Weegar may be very strong on this league. However when Rasmus Dahlin is an possibility, the actual fact of the matter is Weegar isn’t an possibility. Sure, Dahlin’s as soon as wonderful HIT and BLK numbers plummeted final season; nevertheless, his scoring rose again to prior heights, and much and away above that of Weegar. I do know that in Weegar you possibly can lock in tons of hits and blocks whereas nonetheless getting strong scoring, and this league solely begins 11 skaters, making it not very viable to do what is feasible in leagues the place many extra begin, which is to cobble collectively hits and blocks within the mixture. However with 4 defensemen spots, I do really feel that one could be reserved for streaming in banger guys, making Weegar not the precise preserve.
However is Dahlin the precise preserve? Werenski was a degree per sport participant, and that was regardless of hitting an astonishing 23 posts and crossbars, the identical quantity as some man named Cale Makar, and a crew 5×5 SH% of solely 9.3% after it being 10.6% or increased in his prior two seasons. His OZ% and secondary help charges additionally each try. In brief, this was no fluke season; and given these posts and crossbars, it might’ve simply been lots higher. Whereas it’s unclear who’ll slot the place with regard to Blue Jacket forwards, there isn’t any query who the highest canine is on D, and it is Werenski. Though Werenski hardly ever data a success, he blocks various photographs, positively sufficient to place him in Dahlin’s new neighborhood of seemingly decrease banger output. And Werenski shoots a ton. He’s the actual deal, and ok to maintain over Dahlin.
What about Ovi? His SOG and HIT are down, as is his TOI. However he is nonetheless on the market just about each second on the PP, and by down, I imply his SOG and HIT are merely nice, versus previously wonderful. Ovi now has expertise round him, together with Dylan Strome, who I mentioned above did overachieve, however nonetheless appears to have clicked with Ovi. There’s additionally the very actual likelihood this shall be Ovi’s final NHL season, so he won’t wish to exit with a whimper. Ovi additionally offers you flexibility with being LW and RW eligible.
That is powerful, however I’ve to go along with Werenski. What he did final season, and nothing suggesting it was a fluke, make him too nice to toss again into the pool. Plus, having Werenski, and the factors he gives you, ought to allow you, as I steered, to make use of a protection spot to stream in banger guys, with Werenski’s extra factors compensating for the shortcomings of these guys in that space. Good luck!
Query #3 (from Abed)
I am in a 12-team H2H the place every crew can indefinitely preserve as much as 7 forwards, 3 defensemen and 1 goalie. Beginning line-ups are 3C, 3LW, 3RW, 4D, 2G, plus there are 4 Bench spots in addition to 4 IR slots. There isn’t a wage cap. The classes are G, A, STP (PPP + SHP), SOG, HIT, BLK and Takeaways for skaters and W, GAA, SV% and SO for goalies. Buying and selling can not happen earlier than keepers are locked in.
I used to be lucky sufficient to win this previous season. That has created a excellent news, dangerous information scenario in that I’ve an extra of keepable gamers. That is significantly the case amongst my forwards. I do know I shall be holding Brady Tkachuk, Jack Eichel and Matvei Michkov, plus all however one in every of Wyatt Johnston, Brandon Hagel, Dylan Guenther, Dylan Holloway and Adam Fantili. Fantasy Hockey Geek initiatives Fantili to carry out the worst for the upcoming season. Since I wish to repeat, if attainable, I feel Fantili’s projections plus his place (C solely) make him the ahead to not preserve; however I am involved in that he might be a celebrity, extra so than most if not the entire different 5, however significantly Hagel and Holloway. As such, a part of me believes it is higher to maintain Fantili, even when he performs barely worse this season in comparison with the opposite choices, as a result of my crew would possibly nonetheless be robust sufficient to repeat. What would you do?
On the outset, let me say I am not shocked you gained, as your evaluation of the scenario is excellent. I additionally agree 100% that Guenther and Johnston should not up for debate, as they’re already doing wonderful and stand an excellent likelihood of getting even higher. It’s too dangerous trades should not allowed, since I imagine that Eichel’s perceived worth proper now’s increased than his precise worth, what with him coming off a 100-point scoring tempo and the arrival of Mitch Marner. However Eichel ‘s 5×5 crew SH% was by far a profession excessive at 11.4%, having solely as soon as beforehand been over 10%. Additionally, 59.1% of his assists had been secondary, which, even accounting for the actual fact he is a middle, is kind of excessive each basically and versus his previous outcomes. And I’m not wild about his SOG charge dropping. However inasmuch as you can not commerce earlier than keepers are locked in, you do should preserve him. Nonetheless, I feel there’s a universe the place you commerce him after keepers.
For now although, does Fantilli advantage holding over Hagel or Holloway? Beginning with Holloway, it’d usually not be nice that he was on PP2, and seemly with no path to PP1, besides the Blues ice two items which are nearly comparable in expertise and TOI, making that much less of a problem than it would be on almost some other crew. However he additionally tends to not skate with Robert Thomas, who’s rising because the star on that crew. Actually, Holloway’s manufacturing being so good final season may need harm him by permitting the Blues to place him on the second line to realize an general extra balanced offense. However when a crew is all about steadiness, that often means not one of the best by way of fantasy output, making me nervous that Holloway will not be capable of rating a lot increased than 70-75 factors if issues do not change.
Hagel has already obliterated that scoring tempo, however he did so regardless of a tiny OZ% which mustn’t, in any universe, lead to a participant having the ability to rating at a 90-point tempo. Nonetheless, he appears “for actual” sufficient to make it powerful to let him go. I absolutely understand that in answering an earlier query I mentioned to not preserve Hagel; nevertheless, fantasy recommendation isn’t one measurement suits all. This crew is stacked, and Hagel having achieved what he did in 2024-25, plus 2023-24, makes him the extra appropriate alternative versus Holloway.
However does Hagel advantage holding over Fantilli? Taking a look at Fantilli’s output, it’s powerful to reconcile in that he did not shoot a lot, had almost no PPGs, and failed to succeed in even 60 factors, but had 32 objectives. And in reality just one participant relationship again to 1990-91 had anyplace close to comparable outputs at that younger an age, and it was Eric Daze, a as soon as promising winger for the Hawks whose profession was lower brief by accidents. So which means we’re with none dependable participant comparables. However what I feel is so key about Fantilli is that he obtained higher and higher because the season wore on, when fairly often gamers of their first full NHL season will hit a wall. As a substitute, Fantilli had 37 factors in his final 44 video games, this regardless of subsequent to no PP time. Additionally, he had ten multipoint video games, which, though it means he had many with zero factors, additionally suggests he has explosive expertise that’s simply ready to come back to the floor.
So in the long run, I feel you do preserve Fantilli and Hagel, making Holloway the drop. There is likely to be a little bit of a commerce off over the following season or possibly two by Holloway scoring – and hitting – as a lot as he does; however in time Fantilli ought to effectively eclipse Holloway’s scoring and make it vital you did not let him go because of close to time period bias. And do take into account dealing Eichel as soon as buying and selling is open once more. Good luck!
Query #4 (from Nick)
I am in a 12 crew H2H league with weekly matchups and every day lineups with rosters of 3C, 4W, 4D, 2Util and 2G (with 4 weekly appearances minimal) and classes are G, A, +-, PPG, PPA, SOG, GWG, Hits and SHP for skaters and W, SV%, GAA and shutouts for goalers. We will preserve 11 keepers with no restrict on how lengthy a participant could be stored. My choices are: Jack Hughes, Brandon Hagel, Roope Hintz, Alex DeBrincat, Travis Konecny, Tomas Hertl, Tom Wilson, Luke Hughes, Miro Heiskanen, Thomas Harley, Brock Faber, Zach Hyman, Logan Thompson, Thatcher Demko, Frederick Andersen
I am additionally in a league that’s an identical besides we preserve 12 and BLK is counted as a substitute of SHP. For this one, my choices are: Jake Guentzel, Matt Boldy, Sebastian Aho, Hintz, Wyatt Johnston, Matvei Michkov, JJ Peterka, Valeri Nichushkin, Pavel Buchnevich, Quinton Byfield, Luke Hughes, Faber, Logan Thompson, Pyotr Kochetkov, Stuart Skinner. I am additionally pondering to commerce Byfield for Victor Hedman or Jakub Chychrun. And I’ve an enormous commerce provide on the desk of Thompson, Boldy, and the second and forty fifth picks within the draft for Jack Eichel and both Alex Ovechkin or Rakell and the sixth and 67th picks.
What are your ideas for each leagues? I am seeking to win, after coming very shut so usually, however I additionally do not wish to be blinded by that and damage my crew(s) within the course of.
It is a lot, plus two separate questions in a single. Thus, to maintain issues manageable for readers I am going to give shorter solutions than common.
For the primary league, I depend 15 potential retains, that means you solely must make 4 cuts. Proper from the beginning I am holding one goalie at most. Your selections should not nice, and I do not envision groups holding a couple of, if even one. If you happen to preserve a goalie although, I might have it’s Thompson, as the most suitable choice given well being and crew. I am additionally not holding Faber. His rookie season was each attainable dot connecting, and what we noticed in 2024-25 is probably going extra indicative of his trajectory, which I see as him peaking at a degree per each different sport. Suppose Filip Hronek, Cam Fowler with Anaheim, or Devon Toews, at greatest. That’s not a preserve. The final one is harder. If there was not a objectives premium I might say ditch Hyman, since not solely is he coming off a subpar season, however he is getting into 2025-26 harm. However he nonetheless ought to be within the prime six and on PP1, so he is a preserve. I feel the non-keep is Hintz. Hertl ought to profit from the arrival of Mitch Marner, and DeBrincat may be very constant. Hintz was certainly a two-time level per gamer, however the ascension of Wyatt Johnston has harm him, as his minutes preserve shrinking. He’ll nonetheless be within the prime six and certain PP1, however he looks like the odd man out, all issues thought of, making the cuts Faber, Demko, Andersen, and Hintz.
The second league has 16 gamers for 12 spots, so but once more there solely should be 4 cuts. That’s should you do not make trades. On that topic, I might be inclined to attempt to deal Byfield. He is treading water and as I’ve mentioned many occasions, and as has been “confirmed” with previous comparables, gamers as tall and heavy as Byfield are inclined to not solely produce worse than projected, however usually have careers lower brief or in any other case negatively affected by damage. If you happen to can flip him into Hedman, I’d. Sure, Hedman is outdated, however he’s the highest canine on Tampa and will nonetheless be a prime tier d-man for a number of extra seasons. The opposite deal is one I might decline since, as indicated above, I feel Eichel is a promote excessive, whereas Boldy is undervalued. Stand pat there.
Who then are the cuts on this second league? Once more, I might ditch Faber for a similar causes. And though the goalie choices are higher, I nonetheless cannot see you holding a couple of, and I might once more preserve Thompson. Skinner simply appears to not be connecting the dots, and may not have many suitors as a UFA after this season. Kochetkov took a big sufficient step again for Carolina to re-sign Frederik Andersen, and I feel if he performs poorly once more the Canes would possibly attempt to use their cap area to commerce for a man like Ilya Sorokin to stabilize their internet scenario as soon as and for all. In order that leaves just one extra lower to make, and to me it is Nichushkin. He was nice when he performed, and he would miss chunks of time whether or not on account of damage or off ice points. However his manufacturing has slipped, and the return of Gabriel Landeskog won’t do him any favors. The opposite possibility is Buchnevich, however he is a two-time level per gamer who ended final season with 25 factors in 24 video games. I feel he is righted his ship sufficient to carry him over Nichushkin, making the cuts Faber, Nich, Skinner and Kochetkov. Good luck!
Query #5 (from Ted)
Which 2026 UFAs to be do you see most definitely to outperform expectations? I am not prime stars like McDavid, Kaprizov, Panarin, Eichel and prime stars, however as a substitute these I’d be capable of get cheaper now and reap the good thing about them doing significantly better than predicted on account of them seeing greenback indicators.
First off, 2026 is shaping as much as be one of the best UFA class in lots of, a few years, and by a large margin. This in fact assumes gamers – just like the 4 you listed – do not re-up with their present within the interim. With that as a qualifier, and specializing in gamers who aren’t as elite, these I see as likeliest to rise to the event and do higher than predicted are Patrik Laine, Evander Kane, Alex Tuch, Andrei Kuzmenko, Cam Fowler, Mike Matheson, and Jacob Markstrom.
Laine has gone from probably the most spectacular outputs in NHL historical past as a teen, to a participant who final season didn’t even take the ice for quarter-hour a sport. However he nonetheless was a PP focus, and he really had 32 factors in 43 video games earlier than ending with one level in his remaining 9 contests. Montreal ought to be a vastly improved crew, such that even when Laine is on the second line and PP1, he ought to be higher than many are predicting, as he is aware of he must show himself another time.
For Kane, it is not solely that the scenario for him in Vancouver appears favorable, but additionally his observe file of enjoying his greatest when on the cusp of being a UFA. Earlier than inking his first UFA deal in 2018 he had his greatest scoring charge in six seasons. Then, after that contract was terminated, he signed a one 12 months “show it” take care of Edmonton, and proceeded to supply at a 74-point tempo, after which is has been downhill since then. Cash is on the road, so I might financial institution on Kane upping his effort, and, with that, his scoring.
Tuch has a problem in that though he can level to an 88-point scoring tempo season in 2022-23, that’s trying increasingly more like an outlier. He realizes that Buffalo has many younger wingers, so he’ll most definitely not be re-signed, incenting him to do effectively with one other crew. I additionally suppose he shall be dealt through the season, possible giving him a bigger PP function and an opportunity to spice up his stats.
Kuzmenko has the expertise to thrive, however among the many lowest effort ranges of any present NHLer. He eases off the fuel pedal for chunks of the season, however thrives as issues are winding down, in order to go away a positive impression. In 2023-24, it was 17 factors in his final 11 video games, whereas in 2024-25 it was 17 his final 15. He realizes although that if he coasts once more, he may have a tough time getting one other NHL deal. So I feel he’ll up his effort stage extra constantly, and, with that, his scoring output.
Fowler realizes that Philip Broberg is making a case for taking up a far bigger function, maybe together with on PP1, plus Logan Mailloux additionally looms. For Fowler, who turns 34 later this 12 months, the longer term is now, and this possible shall be his final main contract. Whether or not it’s to stick with St. Louis to mentor the kids for just a few extra seasons, or to go to a different crew, search for Fowler to parlay the 17 factors in 18 video games he needed to finish 2024-25 into a really productive 2025-26.
Like Tuch, I anticipate Matheson to be traded through the season, because the Habs now have even much less want for him with the arrival of Noah Dobson. Though Matheson is 31, he had 58- and 62-point scoring paces when given main minutes and the keys to PP1, and whereas on some fairly dangerous Habs groups. Both seize however stash him, or choose him up with round 30-35 video games left, as till he is traded he’ll possible battle.
Lastly there’s Markstrom, who was not fairly the identical after coming back from damage. However earlier than getting harm, he was trying excellent. Though Markstrom is 35, he solely has two season sof 60+ begins, so his legs are youthful than his age. Whether or not it’s to make a case to stick with the Devils, or to go to a brand new crew, search for Markstrom to supply on the charge he did within the first half of 2024-25. Good query!
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All good issues should come to an finish, and this marks my final mailbag earlier than the beginning of the common season. By all means please preserve sending me questions, however do not embody keeper questions or issues that want a solution earlier than the season. You’ll be able to ship your inquiries to me (1) by emailing them to [email protected] with the phrases “Roos Mailbag” as the topic line, or (2) by sending them to me through a non-public message on the DobberHockey Boards, the place my username is “rizzeedizzee”.
When sending me your questions, keep in mind to offer as a lot element about your league/scenario as attainable. Examples of issues I must know embody what kind of league you are in (i.e., restricted keeper, dynasty, or one-year; roto vs. H2H; public sale – in that case, what the finances is – or non-auction), what number of groups are within the league, does the wage cap matter, what number of gamers are rostered (and of these, what number of begin at every place in addition to what number of bench and/or IR spots there are), what classes are scored and the way are they weighted, plus different particulars if pertinent. In case your query includes whether or not to select up or drop a participant, give me a listing of prime free brokers out there and let me know if the variety of pick-ups is restricted or if there’s a precedence system for pick-ups. If you happen to’re considering of creating a commerce, it might be good to know not solely the roster of the opposite crew you would possibly commerce with but additionally the place you stand in your classes. In case your query includes keepers, along with giving me the choices for who to maintain, let me know if offseason buying and selling is allowed and to what extent it’s a viable possibility given your league. In sum, the hot button is to inform me sufficient for me to present you a very correct reply, and for readers of this column to learn from the reply/recommendation I present. When unsure, it is best to err on the aspect of inclusion since I can at all times omit or disregard issues that do not matter.
