By Lincoln Hamid ’29
Cubs Projected Starters:
Sport 1: Matthew Boyd
Sport 2: Shota Imanaga
Sport 3: Jameson Taillon/Colin Rea
Matthew Boyd
Season Stats: 14-8, 3.21 ERA, 179.2 IP, 21.4 Okay%, 5.8 BB%
Matthew Boyd has had a resurgent season in 2025 after failing to achieve 70 innings in every of the final 5 seasons. Past staying wholesome, Boyd’s success this season has been predicated on an incredible 4 seamer, which he’ll throw 46.5% of the time, and his changeup, which he throws 23.7% of the time. The lefty’s changeup has been the simplest of his profession, with batters hitting simply .211 towards it. This could bode properly for him towards the Padres, as San Diego is within the backside ten in MLB towards related changeups this season. Boyd additionally throws a slider, which has been much less efficient this yr, primarily towards lefties. The most important query mark for Boyd is a draw back of his super success. As a primary time All-Star in his age-34 season, Boyd has thrown his most innings since 2019, and sturdiness and fatigue might be an element this October.
Shota Imanaga
Season Stats: 9-8, 3.73 ERA, 144.2 IP, 20.6 Okay%, 4.6 BB%
Shota Imanaga surged onto the scene in 2024, rapidly changing into a fan favourite on the North Facet after coming over from Japan on a 4-year, $53 million contract. Imanaga has come right down to earth in 2025, regressing in nearly each statistic and coping with a hamstring pressure which landed him on the IL for a portion of this yr. Imanaga’s 4 seam fastball, one of many slowest within the league, performed above common in his rookie season however has misplaced its magic this yr. Batters are slugging at a .567 clip this season towards his fastball, which means Imanaga turns each batter he faces into Kyle Schwarber (.572 SLG) every time he throws a heater. He has given up 31 homers this yr, the third most lengthy balls within the league. The important thing for Imanaga will likely be to maintain his fastball up within the zone with out giving up homers, which ought to be achievable given the Padres have hit the third fewest dwelling runs in baseball this season. Imanaga’s go to off-speed pitch, his splitter, has additionally taken a step again this yr however stays elite, so it will likely be fascinating to watch his utilization of that pitch towards the Padres, who’re twenty sixth this yr in xwOBA towards splitters.
Potential Sport 3 Choices:
With Cade Horton hitting the IL with a rib harm simply days earlier than the beginning of the playoffs, the Cubs should flip to both Jameson Taillon or Colin Rea.
Jameson Taillon
11-7, 3.68 ERA, 129.2 IP, 18.9 Okay%, 5.2 BB%
Taillon is in his third season with the Cubs, and has been a persistently above common performer. He missed all of July and the start of August with two separate IL stints, however has been efficient since his return. Taillon posts very robust numbers towards left handed hitters, holding them to only a 79 OPS+ this season, versus a 121 OPS+ towards righties, so key in on matchups towards Padres prime of the lineup left handed hitters Luis Arraez and Jackson Merrill. Taillon will not be overpowering, and depends strongly on command, though he has, like Imanaga, had hassle with dwelling runs this yr, permitting 24 dwelling runs in simply 129.2 innings.
Colin Rea
Season Stats: 11-7, 3.95 ERA, 159.1 IP, 19.2 Okay%, 6.6 BB%
Rea is in his first full season with the Cubs, and has overperformed expectations to line up as the opposite potential Sport 3 starter. Rea has additionally come out of the pen 5 occasions this season, and it is possible he piggybacks off Taillon in a pivotal Sport 3. Rea will come after hitters with a big arsenal, together with a 4 seam fastball the Cubs have emphasised for Rea this yr, as he’s throwing it a profession excessive 42% of the time.
It appears most certainly that the Cubs will hand the ball to Taillon in a possible Sport 3 Thursday, with Rea obtainable for lengthy aid. Count on neither Taillon nor Rea’s outings to be very prolonged.
Padres Projected Starters:
Sport 1: Nick Pivetta
Sport 2: Michael King
Sport 3: Dylan Stop/Yu Darvish/Randy Vasquez
Nick Pivetta
Season Stats: 13-5, 2.87 ERA, 181.2 IP, 26.4 Okay%, 6.9 BB%
Nick Pivetta has merely been one of the vital dominant pitchers within the Nationwide League this yr, and can begin Sport 1 for the Padres towards the Cubs. Pivetta’s go-to is his dominating four-seamer, a pitch he retains up within the zone and pairs together with his eighty fifth percentile extension and 4 extra inches of rise than common to make up for his beneath common velo. Though the right-hander’s fastball is considerably of an outlier, the Cubs have been within the prime 5 within the league this season in hitting related fastballs. The 9 yr veteran’s profession yr has been spurred on due to his breaking stuff as properly. He’ll throw a real 12-6 curveball towards lefties and a sweeper towards righties. The league is slugging a dismal .225 towards the sweeper this season. One factor to control in his matchup towards the Cubs is which route the wind is blowing at Wrigley, as Pivetta will get flyballs at an above-average clip.
Michael King
Season Stats: 5-3, 3.44 ERA, 73.1 IP, 24.7 Okay%, 8.4 BB%
After Pivetta, the Padres have a lot of query marks. King will possible be the Sport 2 starter, though he’s thrown simply 73.1 innings this season, as he was one of many higher pitchers in baseball in 2024. King has additionally been good this yr, however had a blowup just lately, giving up 8 runs in 3 innings towards the Mets on September sixteenth. King throws each a sinker and a 4 seamer, and his major secondary pitches are his changeup to lefties and his sweeper to righties. King will throw his fastballs on the prime of the zone and play his elite changeup off these pitches on the backside of the zone. Search for the Cubs to be aggressive towards King’s sinker, as they’re third in xwOBA towards related sinkers to King’s this season. Batters are hitting simply .181 towards his changeup this yr, so swinging at fastballs will likely be key for the Cubs.
Potential Sport 3 Starters:
The Padres will possible go to one in every of these three pitchers for a win-or-go-home Sport 3.
Dylan Stop
Season Stats: 8-12, 4.55 ERA, 168 IP, 29.8 Okay%, 9.8 BB%
At occasions, Stop will be one of the vital dominant pitchers within the recreation, ending 2nd in Cy Younger voting in 2022 and 4th simply final yr. The correct-hander has been extra boom-or-bust this yr, together with his excessive velocity 4 seamer and sharp slider mixture doing a lot of the heavy lifting for Stop. He has walked nearly 10% of the batters he’s confronted this season, which might bode poorly towards the Cubs, who’re third in baseball in stroll price.
Yu Darvish
Season Stats: 5-5, 5.38 ERA, 72 IP, 23 Okay%, 6.3 BB%
The 39-year-old former Cub has had an harm plagued and comparatively ineffective 2025, however his profession pedigree and his spectacular efficiency in final yr’s playoffs, posting a 1.98 ERA in two begins towards the Dodgers within the NLDS. Darvish has had a significant problem with the lengthy ball, and his stuff has ticked down as he’s aged, though he’ll throw the kitchen sink on the Cubs, as he threw 7 totally different pitches at the very least 8% of the time this season.
Randy Vasquez
Season Stats: 6-7, 3.73 ERA, 132.2 IP, 13.7 Okay%, 9.2%
Randy Vasquez has loved a reasonably profitable season on a outcomes foundation, though the underlying numbers counsel a a lot worse efficiency. Vasquez owns a 5.50 xERA, and a 4.93 FIP, in most half as a consequence of his almost league worst 13.7 Okay%. Vasquez strikes few batters out and will get few floor balls, so his effectiveness this season might be a mirage.
Stop initiatives to be the favourite to start out Sport 3. He has the very best ceiling of the Padres three choices, and in a winner-take-all recreation Stop has the possibility to show in a efficiency that may carry the Padres into the NLDS.
The Cubs have featured the extra dominant offense for a lot of the season, however the Padres have the star energy to indicate up within the massive moments and the potential for dominant pitching performances. The Padres even have a a lot deeper and simpler bullpen than the Cubs, headlined by deadline acquisition Mason Miller and nearer Robert Suarez. Nonetheless, the depth of the Cubs lineup in comparison with the Padres skinny backside of the order might be the distinction on this sequence. For that motive, I anticipate the Cubs to take this sequence at dwelling over the Padres in three video games and advance to the NLDS.
