By Stephen Vilardo, SuperWest Sports activities
And the Mountain West turns itself the wrong way up as soon as once more.
Final week, San Diego State allowed practically as many factors of their loss to Hawaii as they’d in all of their convention video games prior.
The Aztecs nonetheless management the league race, and might cement that declare with a win over Boise State at Snapdragon Stadium this weekend.
With a loss, Boise State strikes into the seemingly revolving driver’s seat.
That leaves each Fresno State and Hawaii lurking, every with some benefits in sure tie-breaker situations.
The Warriors are off this week, whereas the Bulldogs look to keep away from an upset by the hands of the opportunistic Cowboys of Wyoming.
All advised, we’ve got 11 MW groups in motion in Week 12, with 5 convention matchups and Air Drive stepping out of league play with a go to to a harmful UConn crew.
Here’s a have a look at the six-game slate for the MW this week.
Air Drive Falcons at UConn Huskies
Saturday, November 15
9:00 AM PT, CBS Sports activities
Line: UConn –7
Over/Beneath: 63.5
The Falcons received again into the win column by defeating San Jose State final week.
Sure, the Mountain West is wacky this season. However with that win over the Spartans, Air Drive retains their bowl hopes alive, even when it is just by a glimmer.
The Falcons can’t afford one other misstep. This week, the Falcons step again out of convention with a visit to UConn.
The Huskies are 7-3 on the season, with all three of the losses coming in time beyond regulation. For sure, this one shall be an enormous take a look at for the Falcons.
Jim Mora’s squad has already picked up wins over Boston School and Duke, and one of many OT losses got here by the hands of one other ACC outfit, the Syracuse Orange.
Whereas the Huskies have been very profitable this season, a few their deficiencies might play into the arms of the visiting Falcons this week. UConn ranks 106th in speeding protection and a hundred and twentieth in opponents’ first downs.
The Air Drive floor assault ranks second within the nation, averaging 269 yards per recreation. Lengthy sustained drives will put on out the Huskies protection and, maybe extra importantly, hold the UConn offense off the sphere.
The Huskies are 18th nationally in complete offense and might strike in a rush. They’ve totaled 27 scrimmage performs of 30+ yards this season, Eleventh-most within the nation, and have 16 performs which have gained 40+ yards.
UConn doesn’t want a whole lot of time to attain.
Search for factors to be put up by each groups, however UConn’s fast strike offense could be an excessive amount of for the Falcons on this one.
Towards the unfold: UConn
Factors Whole: Over
Outright winner: UConn
Colorado State Rams at New Mexico Lobos
Saturday, November 15
12:00 PM PT, MW Community
Line: New Mexico –14.5
Over/Beneath: 53.5
Colorado State heads to New Mexico following a disappointing exhibiting of their large loss to UNLV final week. New Mexico is coming off a bye week, but in addition confronted the Rebels of their final recreation.
The Lobos had a drastically completely different final result towards UNLV than the Rams. The five-point win in Vegas a few weeks in the past received UNM to bowl eligibility, and Jason Eck has this crew enjoying some glorious soccer this season.
Colorado State’s protection has struggled this season, enjoying much more poorly over the past three video games. Throughout that three-game slide, the Rams have allowed 7.25 yards per play whereas being outscored 101-29.
New Mexico is coming off a win over UNLV wherein they averaged 9.67 yards per play. Towards the Rebels, it was the passing recreation that did a lot of the harm. On this one, it might be the bottom assault.
The Lobos have a three-headed monster within the backfield of Damon Bankston, Scottre Humphry, and DJ McKinney, all of whom have at the very least 74 carries this season.
They cut up the load evenly, and this week all of them would possibly get yards in bunches towards a CSU run protection that’s 121st within the nation, permitting 193.6 speeding yards per recreation.
The Lobos are 6-3, and two of these three losses got here at Michigan and Boise State, a few locations that aren’t straightforward to go away with wins for any crew, not to mention one simply coming into its personal.
The purpose is, this can be a actually good New Mexico crew dealing with a Colorado State crew that’s not excellent in any respect this season—and it’ll present on Saturday.
Towards the unfold: New Mexico
Factors Whole: Over
Outright winner: New Mexico
San Jose State Spartans at Nevada Wolf Pack
Saturday, November 15
12:30 PM PT, CBS Sports activities
Line: San Jose State –9.5
Over/Beneath: 52.5
The Spartans have had their struggles this season, and final week the struggles continued with a 10-point loss at residence to Air Drive.
Nevada enters this one having misplaced seven in a row, and the Pack have but to knock off an FBS crew throughout their 1-8 season.
One regular, constant issue for San Jose State has been the play of Walker Eget. The senior QB had a vivid spot in an in any other case dim season and leads the nation with 326.8 yards per recreation.
In his final seven video games, he has been even higher, averaging 349.9 passing yards per recreation with 15 TDs and a score of 154.3.
This week, he’ll lead the high-powered Spartan offense towards a Nevada crew that allowed Utah State to throw for 377 yards within the final recreation.
Nevada has allowed 32.3 factors per recreation over their final six; the Spartans shouldn’t have a lot hassle scoring factors on this one.
San Jose State has had a tough time stopping anybody this 12 months, as they’re 118th within the nation in complete protection and 132nd at stopping the move.
The Wolf Pack are one of many worst groups within the nation at throwing the soccer. If the Pack can’t create any offense via the air on this one, it is going to be a really lengthy afternoon.
San Jose State will dominate the sport, which ought to look lots like what most of us anticipated to see all seson.
Towards the unfold: San Jose State
Factors Whole: Over
Outright winner: San Jose State
Utah State Aggies at UNLV Rebels
Saturday, November 15
4:00 PM PT, CBS Sports activities
Line: UNLV –6
Over/Beneath: 71.5
UNLV is coming off a reasonably dominant 42-10 win over Colorado State, whereas Utah State is coming off an much more dominant efficiency of their 51-14 victory over Nevada.
As evident from the scores from final week, each groups can gentle up the scoreboard. The defensive stats had been a bit deceptive, nonetheless. Their factors allowed had extra to do with their opponents’ weaknesses than their defensive strengths.
Each the Aggies and Rebels are among the many backside 16 nationally in complete protection.
Third downs shall be an enormous key: The Aggies, regardless of their offensive output, have transformed on simply 33.6% of their third downs this season, rating 118th nationally.
UNLV has bent a bunch this season, however has not often damaged on third down. UNLV is third-best within the nation in third-down protection, permitting a conversion price of simply 26.2%.
The Rebels have additionally been higher at creating turnovers this season than the Aggies.
With a win on Saturday, Utah State can be bowl eligible for the twelfth time within the final 15 years. USU can have two extra probabilities to succeed in the six-win mark, and they’ll want them.
There shall be a whole lot of factors scored on this one, by each groups, however the residence crew will do sufficient to get the win. The Aggies will hold it shut and canopy, however the Rebels get the win.
Towards the unfold: Utah State
Factors Whole: Over
Outright winner: UNLV
Boise State Broncos at San Diego State Aztecs
Saturday, November 15
7:30 PM PT, CBS Sports activities
Line: San Diego State –3
Over/Beneath: 41.5
Well, the wacky Mountain West took one other flip final week. The Aztecs had allowed a complete of 41 factors in convention play earlier than giving up 38 to Hawaii.
Regardless of the setback for the Aztecs, this one nonetheless options the highest two groups within the convention standings.
The Broncos will look to lean closely on the run recreation with the harm to Maddox Madson, forcing Max Cutforth into the beginning position. Cutforth struggled in Boise’s loss to Fresno State two weeks in the past, finishing lower than 50% of his move makes an attempt.
Establishing issues on the bottom towards the Aztecs is less complicated stated than finished. SDSU is at the moment tenth within the nation towards the run, permitting simply 93.1 yards per recreation.
Even in permitting extra yardage than regular of their two losses, to Washington State and Hawaii, they nonetheless held each groups to below 4 yards per carry.
In each circumstances, the Warriors and Cougars had been in a position to throw the ball properly, and that opened issues up on the bottom. Boise State might not be capable to replicate the identical passing numbers with out Madson.
The Aztecs additionally struggled to get the bottom recreation going of their two losses this season. Fortunate Sutton has averaged over 104 yards per recreation within the Aztecs’ seven wins this season, whereas getting simply 83 speeding yards per outing within the two defeats.
The Broncos have struggled to cease groups on the bottom, rating 88th within the nation towards the run. The Broncos have allowed over 175 yards on the bottom 4 instances this season.
Search for the Aztecs to close down the Broncos offense whereas grinding it out on the bottom. SDSU will get a stronghold on the convention lead with a win over the Broncos.
Towards the unfold: San Diego State
Factors Whole: Beneath
Outright winner: San Diego State
Wyoming Cowboys at Fresno State Bulldogs
Saturday, November 15
7:30 PM PT, FS1
Line: Fresno State –3.5
Over/Beneath: 40.5
With the win over Boise State final trip, the convention race is immediately all of it there for the taking for Fresno State.
With the Broncos dealing with a troublesome activity, the Bulldogs can take management of issues by caring for their enterprise down the stretch.
That activity begins this week with a go to from Wyoming. And to get the win at residence, the turnover susceptible Bulldogs might want to maintain the soccer.
Wyoming has created 13 takeaways this season and their 9 interceptions are the thirty second most within the nation. Fresno State QBs have thrown 11 interceptions, greater than all however eight groups nationally.
If Frenso State can maintain the soccer, they need to have little hassle with the Cowboys. Of their three convention wins this season, the Bulldogs have a turnover margin of +9 with 11 takeaway.
Within the two league losses, Fresno State has given the ball up six instances with a turnover margin of –4 within the two video games mixed.
I feel the Bulldogs will keep away from turnovers and maintain the Cowboys in a recreation that stays low scoring however sees Fresno State draw back late.
Towards the unfold: Fresno State
Factors Whole: Beneath
Outright winner: Fresno State
writes about numerous subjects for SuperWest sports activities, together with stats and information, faculty sports activities, and motorsports. He additionally based and runs the Sports activities and Leisure Analysis Middle (SERC).
