The 2023 Florida Panthers’ Unprecedented Playoff Surge
By Nicholas Lopez and Victor Zeidenfeld
Traditionally Unparalleled Success
In a phrase, the 2023 Florida Panthers’ playoff efficiency was nothing lower than unprecedented. Saturday, June third, marked the beginning of the Stanley Cup Finals, a matchup between the Golden Knights and Florida Panthers, who got only a 3% probability to make it this far on the finish of the common season. As soon as given 150-1 odds after Sport 4 of the First Spherical to win the Stanley Cup, the Florida Panthers have been miraculously favorites heading into the finals. Had they received, the Panthers would full what is probably going probably the most extraordinary playoff run in NHL, and arguably trendy skilled sports activities, historical past. Within the NHL neighborhood, a Cinderella run is commonly used to outline a playoff run throughout which a workforce at all times performs a lower-seeded workforce in every collection. Evaluating the Panthers’ gauntlet with different Cinderella runs from the previous 20 NHL seasons to succeed in the Stanley Cup Finals, it’s simple to see simply how spectacular the this season’s anomaly is:
Cinderella Runs to Attain Stanley Cup Finals, by Total League Seed
| Yr | Staff | First Spherical | Second Spherical | Convention Finals | Stanley Cup Finals | Finals Outcome |
| 1994 | Vancouver Canucks (14) | Calgary Flames (7) | Dallas Stars (8) | Toronto Maple Leafs (5) | New York Rangers (1) | Misplaced |
| 1995 | New Jersey Devils (9) | Boston Bruins (6) | Pittsburgh Penguins (3) | Philadelphia Flyers (5) | Detroit Crimson Wings (1) | Received |
| 1999 | Buffalo Sabers (9) | Ottawa Senators (3) | Boston Bruins (8) | Toronto Maple Leafs (5) | Dallas Stars (1) | Misplaced |
| 2003 | Mighty Geese of Anaheim (11) | Detroit Crimson Wings (3) | Dallas Stars (2) | Minnesota Wild (10) | New Jersey Devils (4) | Misplaced |
| 2004 | Calgary Flames (12) | Vancouver Canucks (7) | Detroit Crimson Wings (1) | San Jose Sharks (3) | Tampa Bay Lightning (2) | Misplaced |
| 2023 | Florida Panthers (7) | Boston Bruins (1) | Toronto Maple Leafs (4) | Carolina Hurricanes (2) | Vegas Golden Knights (5) | Misplaced |
The Panthers had a frightening process forward of them: just one workforce has accomplished a profitable Cinderella run up to now 20 seasons. In reality, the 1995 New Jersey Devils are the solely workforce to have pulled off a profitable Cinderella run for the reason that creation of the 16-team playoff format in 1980. Not solely that, however the Panthers confronted the bottom cumulative seeded groups throughout a complete playoff run over that very same time span.
Who’s to say it will possibly’t be achieved, although? For Florida after the primary spherical, the worst might have been behind them. Their most formidable opponent was definitely the one they confronted and defeated first—the Boston Bruins, who had simply accomplished probably the most profitable common season in NHL historical past.
Whereas previous playoff success has been proven via early indicators comparable to end-of-season prosperity, the Panthers confirmed no such indicators. Of their closing 12 video games, the Panthers went 6-6, and 1-3 in opposition to groups they might later play within the playoffs. They did, nevertheless, present unimaginable streakiness, dropping 4 in a row in a battle to clinch postseason berth earlier than successful six in a row and eventually dropping their closing two video games. In reality, the Panthers didn’t clinch a playoff spot till the day after their penultimate recreation, when the Sabres and Penguins have been eradicated in their very own respective losses.
What makes this playoff run much more particular is that the Panthers have been in a decent race with the New York Islanders and Pittsburgh Penguins for the 2 final playoff spots within the East. With two video games left within the season, one other Penguins playoff look appeared promising as they might play two of the worst groups this season, the Columbus Blue Jackets and the Chicago Blackhawks. It could be affordable to anticipate the Penguins to complete the common season with two extra wins, however they skated off with a measly one level for an extra time loss to the Blue Jackets. The Panthers would have been the odd man out with a Pittsburgh victory over Chicago, a testomony to the parity within the Nationwide Hockey League.
Certainly, the Panthers have been near being the ninth finest workforce within the East, which quantities to nothing on the finish of the common season. A season that gave the impression to be a horrible collapse for the 2022 President’s Trophy Champs was corrected in a spectacular playoff run up to now. So, is the Panthers’ success a product of their profitable season the prior 12 months, or the injection of latest management into the workforce? The Panthers made a blockbuster commerce with the Calgary Flames within the low season that swapped superstars between the 2 cities. Matthew Tkachuk, an impending free agent after the 2022-23 season, expressed his need to depart Calgary, forcing their entrance workplace to discover a commerce to maintain the workforce aggressive after dropping Johnny Gaudreau in free company. The worth tag for the Panthers was a veteran ahead coming off one other spectacular season in Jonathan Huberdeau and a top-four defenseman Mackenzie Weegar.
This season marked personnel change for the Panthers behind the bench as nicely with Paul Maurice employed as the brand new head coach. With the Panthers out of the playoff image because the season’s finish neared, Tkachuk is given reward for his management and talent pushing the Panthers into the playoffs. An analogous narrative continued all through the playoffs with a number of purpose contributions in every collection he has performed up to now. His play was particularly essential of their convention finals sweep the place Tkachuk scored three of 4 game-winning targets.
Maurice was relieved of his head teaching duties in Winnipeg and located his new residence in Florida the place he pulled the appropriate strings when it mattered most. Nonetheless, there have been a number of coaches who discovered new houses this season. Bruce Cassidy was fired by Bruins’ Normal Supervisor Don Sweeney for his lack of success within the playoffs. He went to Vegas the place he now has an opportunity at internet hosting a Stanley Cup. He changed Pete Deboer who was then employed by Dallas, making it to the convention finals the place they have been bested by Vegas. Lastly, Jim Montgomery changed Cassidy in Boston following his departure from Dallas. The teaching modifications previous to the season have been clearly impactful with solely Rod Brind’Amour having a head teaching place along with his workforce previous to this season amongst Convention Finals groups.
Montgomery didn’t have a profitable playoff run following the Bruins’ historic season the place they amassed probably the most wins and factors in NHL historical past. To have such a dominant season and to comply with that with a first-round loss is surprising and raises considerations in regards to the Bruins’ management. What components contributed to the Bruins’ inabilityto win one in all their final three video games to clinch a collection win? Conversely, what did the Panthers do proper in recreation 5 and onwards to win their first spherical collection but additionally the second spherical and convention finals in 5 and 4 video games respectively?
Frauds or For Actual? An Evaluation of the First Spherical Sequence via Numerous Lenses
To what extent is the Panthers’ success pure luck, and to what extent are these collection wins earned? MoneyPuck’s Deserve To Win O’Meter goals to reply such questions, utilizing a components just like thatused to calculate Anticipated Objectives in soccer. Utilizing this metric, the outcomes nonetheless bode nicely for the Panthers, who “deserved” to win the primary 4 of 5 video games of their First Spherical collection in opposition to the Bruins.
| Sport | Outcome | Anticipated Objectives |
| Sport One | Panthers 1 – Bruins 3 | Panthers 3.24 – Bruins 3.1 |
| Sport Two | Panthers 6 – Bruins 3 | Panthers 4.93 – Bruins 3.6 |
| Sport Three | Panthers 2, Bruins 4 | Panthers 3.46, Bruins 3.42 |
| Sport 4 | Panthers 2, Bruins 6 | Panthers 3.87, Bruins 6.6 |
| Sport 5 | Panthers 4, Bruins 3 | Panthers 3.86, Bruins 4.52 |
| Sport Six | Panthers 7, Bruins 5 | Panthers 4.85, Bruins 4.01 |
| Sport Seven | Panthers 4, Bruins 3 | Panthers 2.59, Bruins 2.98 |
Utilizing the Gradient Boosting Mannequin, it’s clearly simply how a lot Bobrovsky has mattered to the workforce all through the postseason. With this data, it turns into simpler to discover a key issue within the Panthers’ unprecedented success. Bobrovsky, as soon as undrafted, is now on his thirteenth season, having fun with an extremely profitable profession with two Vezina Trophy wins. Bobrovsky had a under common common season, rating fifteenth out of 25 in Objectives Saved Above Anticipated Per 60 Minutes and Wins Above Substitute amongst goalies who began for not less than half of their workforce’s video games in the course of the season. As seen all through the NHL, variance amongst ranges of play between the common and postseason for particular person gamers and groups as an entire generally is a important issue, and Bobrovsky’s efficiency is one clear instance.
Tkachuk and Bobrovsky Dominating Their Respective Ends of the Ice.
Matthew Tkachuk has been probably the most impactful participant for the Panthers’ this playoffs, main the workforce in purpose, assists, factors. His efficiency shouldn’t be a fluke with the best anticipated targets in all conditions in addition to excessive hazard conditions. The Panthers merely are a extra productive offensive workforce with Tkachuk on the ice. He leads his workforce with on-ice anticipated targets and off-ice anticipated targets illuminating the offensive caliber Tkachuk brings to the sport which is why followers have seen so many game-winning purpose contributions in shut video games.
The Panther’s presence on the opposite aspect of the ice has been simply as noticeable. Panthers’ goalie, Sergei Bobrovsky leads the NHL in goalie saves above anticipated this playoffs and is third for goalie saves above anticipated per 60 minutes. Bobrovsky has made the act of constructing unbelievably proficient saves routine. As validated with the Gradient Boosting Mannequin, the Panthers seemingly wouldn’t be within the finals with out Bobrovsky. His anticipated targets in opposition to common is 3.57 whereas his precise targets in opposition to is 2.50 which offers his workforce with higher possibilities to win playoff video games the place targets are extraordinarily tough to return by. If his precise targets have been inflated to a purpose greater, lots of the Panthers’ spectacular victories would disappear. This playoffs they’ve received seven video games in extra time. If Bobrovsky had not persistently risen to the event, the Panthers would have misplaced these seven video games in regulation holding all different components equal as they might have conceded an extra purpose every recreation based mostly on their anticipated targets in opposition to. Wins above substitute might ring a bell for a baseball article, however it is usually an awesome measure to make use of in hockey to judge goalies. To no shock, Bobrovsky leads the NHL this playoff with virtually two wins greater than the second most indispensable goalie this playoffs. In a trophy that takes 16 hard-fought wins, the Florida goaltender has definitely helped convey his workforce near their first ever reign as Stanley Cup Champions.
Why Did the Panthers Magical Run Collapse?
Matthew Tkachuk was probably the most noticeable skater on the ice regularly all through the Panthers’ first three collection. Nonetheless, his effectiveness peaked within the Japanese Convention Finals the place he had both a game-winning purpose or help in all 4 video games in one of many closest sweeps in NHL historical past.
Tkachuk made an look on the scoresheet in two of the 4 video games he performed in opposition to the Vegas Golden Knights earlier than being dominated out resulting from harm. Tkachuk was mildly productive, however he was coping with an underlying harm that prevented him from carrying his workforce to their first Stanley Cup victory. Different teammates have been additionally battling within the finals with accidents of their very own resulting in a Stanley Cup matchup dominated by Vegas. Alongside Matthew Tkachuk, Florida had many unhealthy gamers from the Convention finals on. Eetu Luostarinen, Radko Gudas, Aaron Ekblad, Sam Bennet, and Brandon Montaur have been all battling accidents within the finals.
What to Anticipate in 2023-2024 Season From the Florida Panthers
The Panthers belong to a tricky division with groups that simply missed final 12 months seeking to make the bounce into the playoffs. The Tampa Bay Lightning and Toronto Maple Leafs look to be robust contenders for the highest two spots resulting from their star-studded roster. Regardless of dropping key items, the Boston Bruins, ought to nonetheless be considered as contenders. In the meantime, the Buffalo Sabres, Ottawa Senators, and Detroit Crimson Wings are near the playoff image as their younger cores are anticipated to progress once more this 12 months. At most 5 of the Atlantic groups could make it with seven aggressive groups heading into subsequent season. The variety of Atlantic groups taking part in playoff hockey can be depending on how the fourth and fifth finest groups within the Metropolitan division carry out. The New York Rangers, Carolina Hurricanes, and New Jersey Devils are all contenders for the division however it’s exhausting to depend out the Pittsburgh Penguins from the playoff image after buying Norris winner, Erik Karlsson. The street to the playoffs goes to be a tough one for the Panthers, with no game-changing additions in contrast to the earlier offseason. Their ahead core has modified a bit this offseason with Anthony Duclair being traded to the San Jose Sharks. Duclair was an essential piece to their top-six ahead group that might depart a void. The Panthers might have the same common season as a fringe playoff workforce, however the workforce has proven it will possibly compete with the perfect groups within the NHL.
