Welcome again to Discussion board Buzz, the place I peruse the DobberHockey Boards and weigh in on energetic, closely debated, or in any other case related latest threads, reminding people simply how nice a useful resource the Boards are. Almost something is likely to be coated right here, apart from trades and signings, which often get their very own separate write-ups on the most important website and are additionally usually coated within the subsequent day’s Ramblings, or questions which might be particular to wage cap points, which is the area of the weekly Capped column. To entry the particular discussion board thread on which a query is predicated, click on on the “Subject” for that query.
As has now changing into custom, I am going to begin the column with a nod to the “Who am I?” thread within the Boards the place somebody thinks of an actual life hockey participant or persona, who might be from the previous or current, male or feminine, within the NHL or not, and so they give clues to assist individuals guess who it’s. You get to enter one guess per clue, and when you guess appropriately you consider the subsequent participant, so it simply retains going indefinitely. In your enjoyment, here’s a “Who am I?” pattern. See what number of clues it takes so that you can guess who I’m.
CLUE #1 – I am a at present energetic American ahead
CLUE #2 – Regardless of being from America, I performed Juniors hockey in Canada, the place in every of my three seasons I bested 100 factors
CLUE #3 – Regardless of two of these seasons coming earlier than I used to be drafted, I used to be not a primary spherical decide
CLUE #4 – I went on to the NHL, with no time within the AHL
CLUE #5 – I’ve been very sturdy, enjoying each recreation in each season apart from one
CLUE #6 – The season the place I did miss video games additionally occurs to have been my one and solely, to date, the place I averaged some extent per recreation
CLUE #7 – In that season, plus two others, I averaged over a objective per each different recreation
CLUE #8 – Regardless of this success, I used to be not on the USA’s 4 Nations staff
CLUE #9 – I’ve performed for 3 groups in my profession, two being US, Unique Six groups
CLUE #10 – I am inside the high 15 in cumulative SOG amongst forwards over the previous 4 seasons
CLUE #11 – My present staff is my hometown staff
CLUE #12 – My initials are A.D.
So, who am I? Hopefully you figured it out. Verify the tip of the column to substantiate, or, if not, to seek out out who I’m. Now onto commonly scheduled Discussion board Buzz programming.
Subject #1 – In a full dynasty, preserve ten, the place skater factors are 5 for a objective and three for an help and 6F, 3D and 1G begin, a GM is fairly set on their high eight or 9 keepers however is uncertain in regards to the final two, and is questioning who can be high two amongst Quinton Byfield, Nikolaj Ehlers, Ryan Leonard, Mason McTavish, Juraj Slafkovsky, Trevor Zegras, and Zeev Buium.
Clearly Ehlers stands out on condition that he is a number of years older than any of the others. Nonetheless, he’s not that outdated, plus is about to embark upon unrestricted free company, the place given what he is prone to signal for he ought to see his deployment enhance considerably, which is intriguing contemplating how effectively he is finished in Winnipeg regardless of removed from very best utilization. It will be incorrect to disqualify him based mostly on age alone.
There are a pair who I believe can simply be disregarded, particularly McTavish and Zegras. It’s effectively inside cause that one or each prove fairly good, and even nice, however they can’t be retains given the opposite choices.
Leonard and Buium are extremely regarded, however unproven. Buium’s future appears very vivid, with the Wild not having any “the man” d-men. In fact Minnesota can spend freely this summer season for the primary time in a number of seasons, however the marketplace for impactful d-men is shrinking by the day it appears, with Neal Pionk simply re-upping with Winnipeg. As such, Buium has a serious lure. As for Leonard, he is shined in school hockey, however the Caps have had a number of youthful gamers step up, such that the trail to high tier deployment for Leonard is much less sure as it will have appeared as lately as a yr in the past. I am not taking Leonard right here, whereas Buium is a possible sure, however not 100%.
That leaves the 2 large boys in Slaf and Byfield. For what it is price, relationship again to 2000-01 there have been solely 30 forwards who’re as tall or taller and as heavy or heavier than Byfield who’ve performed 250+ video games. And the outcomes have been…..removed from nice normally. Sure, Tage Thompson is faring effectively, however he’s already having harm points, which derailed promising careers from different large boys like Nik Antropov and Martin Hanzal. Mats Sundin suits the standards, however I’ve a tough time likening him to Byfield on condition that by this stage of Sundin’s profession he was already a 100 level scorer. Apart from Sundin, simply Jason Arnott, Keith Primeau and Blake Wheeler might be seen as true successes, with Wheeler being the one one of many three to grow to be a point-per-game participant at any stage of his profession. Anthony Mantha has averaged a point-per-every-other-game, however he appears to be like like he is on his strategy to being a disappointment. The remainder had been minor to principally main disappointments, and that features first spherical picks like Michael McCarron, Brian Boyle, Michael Rasmussen, Andrei Nazarov, Wade Belak, Dainius Zubrus, Scott Parker, and Joe Colborne. Sure, a few of them had been by no means projected to be main scorers, and previous outcomes don’t dictate future outcomes; nonetheless, this underscores the fact of dimension and draft place not routinely translating to NHL success. Additionally, though Slaf is just not that a lot smaller, the listing of gamers who’re as tall or taller, and as heavy or heavier, and have performed 250+ video games for the reason that 2000-01 seasons contains much more expertise, particularly Brady Tkachuk, Tom Wilson, Anze Kopitar, Dave Andreychuk, Nathan Horton, Todd Bertuzzi, Chris Kreider, John LeClair, Anders Lee, and a few man named Jaromir Jagr. Provided that I believe Slaf and Byfield in any other case undertaking to be related, I am utilizing this as a tiebreaker to go together with Slaf.
Trying again, the contenders are Ehlers, Buium, Slaf and Byfield. If Ehlers indicators someplace that must place him for achievement, he deserves sturdy consideration however his age. Likewise, if Minnesota doesn’t herald, through signing or commerce, any impediments to Buium, he’s very attractive. So I would look to carry these two. But when the Wild seize a giant time d-man, then I preserve Slaf over Buium. As for Ehlers versus Slaf and Byfield, if Buium is stored, I would search for an excuse to maintain Ehlers, however a universe might exist the place he lands in a spot that is not prone to see him thrive, during which case it might be Slaf over Byfield.
Subject #2 – What’s the lifelike outlook for Jet Greaves? He is on a 1-way contract subsequent season and has appeared respectable in 2024-25. Can he discover a strategy to be Columbus’ #1, or will the contract or Elvis Merzlikins or the added expertise of Daniil Tarasov stand in the best way?
What might be mentioned about Merzlikins that hasn’t already been mentioned? He simply completed his fourth marketing campaign in a row with a GAA over 3.15 and a 3rd of a under .900 SV%, and he is by no means had a single season with a High quality Begin % above 50%. Among the many 38 goalies who’ve performed 100+ video games relationship again to 2022-23, he is second to final in SV%, GAA and shoutouts, and has the bottom share of video games with a SV% over .900. It’s not a reasonably image.
What he does have is a deal that pays him $5.4M per season for 2 extra seasons. Though that isn’t a big sufficient sum to make him untouchable, it is loads to both purchase out or bury within the minors. Till now although, the one various was Daniil Tarasov, who, frankly, was probably not an improve, with stats primarily simply as unhealthy. As such, Columbus stored trotting out Elvis in hopes he might discover a strategy to flip issues round, or, failing that, a minimum of not play so poorly as to shoot his staff within the foot.
Enter Greaves. Undrafted, he made his strategy to the AHL by age 20, and noticed his numbers enhance in every of his previous two seasons. He appeared iffy at finest in 2023-24, however for 2024-25 he was very sturdy, with eight of his 11 begins being high quality begins and no Actually Dangerous Begins. What can be nice to see is he was not simply utilized in “cakewalk” video games, as seven of his 11 begins had been in opposition to groups who made the playoffs. Even higher is the truth that he was tapped to start out 5 video games in a span of eight days to finish the season, profitable all 5 and giving up simply 4 complete targets. No query there’ve been goalies who made sturdy preliminary impressions, solely to not do effectively over the lengthy haul as soon as they confronted groups once more and the scouting reviews circulated. Nonetheless, Greaves was in internet when Columbus’ season was on the road, and he shined. That’s vital.
What does the long run maintain? Tarisov is an RFA, and my guess is he will probably be non-qualified. The fantastic thing about Greaves is he is inked by subsequent season for beneath $1M. As such, if Merlizkins needs to be the back-up, the overall spend for the staff on their goalies will probably be solely a little bit over $6M, which is lower than many groups have dedicated to a starter, not to mention a starter and back-up. So I would say that Greaves is poised to have the reins handed to him; and if he fares effectively, Merzlikins doubtless will probably be purchased out earlier than 2026-27.
Subject #3 – In a 14 staff, preserve league a staff is retaining Kirill Kaprizov, Nick Suzuki, Ilya Sorokin, and Igor Shesterkin and has to resolve between Cole Caufield and Elias Pettersson for the final spot. They’re leaning towards Caufield due to the danger issue with EP40 and since Caufield appears to be bettering each season and Montrel is a staff on the rise. Who ought to they preserve?
One factor not talked about is the stacking alternative with Suzuki. However I see stacking as a double edged sword, and riskier the less keepers one has. Nonetheless, there isn’t any query that Suzuki is bettering, having seen his scoring price rise each season of his profession, and Caufield appears to be like to be tethered to Suzuki, which is a reasonably good gig. Certainly, Montreal seems to be poised to get even higher, whereas the long run is cloudier for Vancouver.
As I famous in my most up-to-date mailbag, Caufield might need a tricky time assembly what have been, and stay, excessive expectations. Notably he is terrible on the PP, and getting worse. Though meaning there may be room for enchancment, I would be open to it being lifelike if his PP IPP hadn’t been on a continued slide, culminating with it being 44.7% this season, which could be very unhealthy. How unhealthy? For this season, Caufield completed forty first amongst forwards in PPTOI, however his IPP on the PP was not solely worse than everybody forward of him, however worse by close to ten share factors versus the subsequent lowest individual, plus a mere 5 forward of him in PPTOI had a PP IPP lower than 60%. Trying on the 85 cases, relationship again to 2000-21, of left wings who scored at or above some extent per recreation tempo, simply 5 did so with a PPPt per recreation tempo lower than 21 in 82 video games, which is Caufield’s profession finest price – to date – from final season. Of these 5, three had beforehand posted point-per-game numbers. Probably the most comparable is likely to be Kevin Fiala, who seems to have peaked, and in doing so barely was a point-per-game participant twice.
As for Pettersson, he’s fantasy’s Jekyll and Hyde, enjoying both nice or awful, with little room in between. Nonetheless, he scored 102 factors, and the listing of facilities relationship again to 2000-01 who additionally scored 100+ factors a minimum of as soon as by age 24 consists of Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Leon Draisaitl, Eric Staal, Joe Thornton, Connor McDavid, and Auston Matthews. That’s fairly high quality firm during which to seek out oneself. And though previous outcomes don’t dictate future end result, even Staal, who by no means lived as much as his early outcomes, was nonetheless a 65-75 level participant and twice thereafter was some extent per gamer. In the meantime, Caufield has but to be some extent per recreation man, and won’t grow to be one given his lack of success on the PP.
Sure, Caufield is a shorter participant and never but at his 400-game breakout threshold. The “e-book” on him is much from closed, however the lack of PP success appears to not bode effectively to me, and I really feel like he initiatives to be extra Fiala than not. In the meantime, Pettersson we all know has the aptitude to excel and what he did put him in high quality firm. I am rolling the cube with Pettersson.
Subject #4 –Who’s the higher maintain in a factors solely keeper, Morgan Geekie or Pavel Dorofeyev?
Geekie has been one of many extra shocking success tales of 2024-25. It is a participant who, at age 23, was left uncovered and grabbed by Seattle of their growth draft, solely to be not certified by them a mere two years later. The Bs grabbed him, and he was a point-per-every-other-game participant in 2023-24. Quick ahead to this season, and Geekie began very gradual, with a mere 5 factors in 19 Q1 video games. After that, nonetheless, he tallied 52 factors in 58 video games, discovering nice chemistry with David Pastrnak. If you take a look at the depth chart for the Bs at LW, it isn’t a reasonably image, signifying that Geekie’s “spot” doubtless is just not in jeopardy.
Dorofeyev noticed good good points in TOI, each total and on the PP, responding with a 35 objective season and averaging over three SOG per recreation. Even higher is that regardless of taking pictures as a a lot larger quantity, his SH% remained unchanged, suggesting that is sustainable. Past that, he had 13 PPGs, which if it appears like loads is as a result of it’s. Courting again to 2000-01, the listing of gamers who, by Dorofeyev’s present age of 24, had a minimum of one season of 13+ PPGs whereas additionally averaging 3+ SOG per recreation, consists of Alex Ovechkin, Jarome Iginla, Ilya Kovalchuk, Pasta, Ilya Kovalchuk, Jason Robertson, Kirill Kaprizov, Zach Parise, Dany Heatley, Rick Nash, Patrick Kane, Taylor Corridor, Nikita Kucherov, Alexander Semin, and Alex DeBrincat. What do all of them have in widespread? A minimum of one season of point-per-game scoring and a minimum of considered one of 40+ targets. Most had a number of seasons of excellence, and even when Dorofeyev solely rises to the extent of a participant like DeBrincat, that may nonetheless be fairly strong.
Though I did say that Geekie’s “spot” doesn’t appear in danger, the fact is a mere seven of his factors had been scored with out Pasta on the ice. In the meantime, though Dorofeyev has had his finest success alongside Tomas Hertl, in his case it has been all however 13 factors, recommend he is not as depending on any explicit participant.
In the long run, it is nearer than I would have thought. I do like that Geekie seems to have nobody who might unseat him alongside David Pastrnak; nonetheless, being so depending on Pasta needs to be a priority, and the identical can’t be mentioned about Dorofeyev. Each are comparable when it comes to TOI total and on the PP, however Dorofeyev is a PP sniper, making all of it however assured he’ll stay on PP1. With Geekie not having seen his PP utilization spike regardless of his success, that may be a concern. I am going with Dorofeyev right here, but it surely’s fairly shut.
Subject #5 – In a 12 staff league with classes of G, A, +/-, PIM, SOG, PPG, GWG, PPA, W, GAA, SV%, SHO, the keeper methods requires retaining a selected quantity at every place. They’re already set on which defensemen they’re retaining however are questioning about C, LW, RW, and G. Who ought to be stored at every place?
C – Connor Bedard, Leo Carlsson, Robert Thomas, Claude Giroux – preserve 3
LW – J.T. Miller, Juraj Slafkovsky, Valeri Nichushkin, Mason McTavish – preserve 3
RW – Matvei Michkov, Ivan Demidov, Reilly Smith, Mark Stone, Ryan Leonard – preserve 3
G – Jeremy Swayman, Yaroslav Askarov, Spencer Knight – preserve 2
It appears to be like just like the staff must shed one participant at every place, besides RW, the place there have to be two cuts. To make that dedication, first we have to take a look at the numbers. With 12 groups and 12 skaters (assuming 3D are stored) plus two goalies stored, that’s 168 complete gamers. Not loads, however a good quantity. Sure keepers will seemingly comprise the overwhelming majority of every staff’s roster, so there’s a “make or break” side to them that does not exist in most leagues. To me, this collectively means keepers will point out if a staff has what it takes to compete, which, in flip, will inform as to who ought to be stored, or a minimum of be an element.
It’s instantly obvious the window for profitable for this staff is just not the right here and now. However do not mistake that for a have to routinely preserve the youngest gamers. There may be such a factor as an excessive amount of youth, and if a participant is likely to be previous peak by the point this staff contends he nonetheless may be capable to fetch a pleasant return alongside the best way.
With all this in thoughts, Giroux is the simple drop at middle. All his main stats are down, and, at 37, father time is just not doing him any favors. Plus, the opposite three both undertaking to be nice, or, within the case of Thomas, already is and will stay so for various years.
Left Wing is harder. Miller’s inventory has fallen, and as I’ve cautioned in my columns he’s a heavy hitting participant on the opposite aspect of 30, which might put him in danger for a fast and pronounced decline. However I like what I’ve seen of him in New York and I believe he has gasoline left within the tank. Nonetheless, these are usually not the very best classes for him, so he is not a certain factor. Slaf although is, as his ceiling stays fairly excessive. Nichushkin isn’t any spring rooster both; and between accidents and off ice points he is not performed greater than 65 video games in principally a decade. Nonetheless, when he does handle to play, the outcomes are typically superb. He additionally appears to be extra objective centered, which is essential on this league. McTavish has quietly had a strong season, together with producing at a greater than 70-point price within the second half. This one is hard. I believe the troublesome minimize is Nichushkin, as he misses an excessive amount of time and one by no means is aware of if his off ice and/or harm points will attain a breaking level from which there will probably be no return.
Turning to RW, Smith is a simple drop. He is on the tail finish of his profession, and in contrast to prior to now he didn’t ignite upon going to a brand new staff. Stone is a Band-Support-Boy, however performs fairly effectively when he’s within the line-up. Michkov and Demidov wouldn’t be drops over him for certain, but it surely’s not clear whether or not it makes extra sense to maintain Leonard over Stone. As famous above, the excellent news/unhealthy information state of affairs concerning Leonard is Washington is much better than anticipated and loads of younger gamers have stepped up. As such, when he makes his method into the line-up he’ll have extra expertise surrounding him. However he additionally could have extra competitors. I believe on this case I am going with Stone, with the thought to try to commerce him when he is wholesome and scorching.
Lastly there’s the netminders. This one is just not straightforward both. Whether or not as a result of having to transition to being an on a regular basis goalie or the Bs being a worse staff, he is struggled. However his contract is so excessive as to cement him as a #1, interval. However is that sufficient, given the doubtless trajectory of the Bs? Askarov has excelled at each degree, however has appeared shaky within the NHL, albeit over a really small pattern dimension. Nonetheless, extremely touted goalies have much less of a observe report of success than one would suppose, as look no additional than this listing from 2017….yikes! In fact Spender Knight has not set the world on hearth both, and was dished to Chicago regardless of Sergei Bobrovsky being 36 years outdated and having just one extra yr on his deal. So principally, the Panthers, who could have a necessity for goaltending, felt that Knight, on whom they used a thirteenth total decide, and simply turned 24, was not price retaining because the inheritor obvious to Bob. That claims loads, as have Knight’s lackluster stats with the Blackhawks. Though Askarov is just not routinely a lock for the extent of success most suppose he’ll take pleasure in, I like him over Knight, who to me is the minimize.
Subject #6 – Is Dylan Holloway breaking out, with even higher issues to return? Or is that this both not sustainable or near his lifelike ceiling?
First issues first, Holloway is nearing his 200-game breakout threshold, so to see him make a leap is just not inherently suspect. I additionally like that in each Q2 and This autumn he was a point-per-game participant. In different phrases, he rose, then got here again to earth a little bit, then rose once more. As soon as might need been extra suspect, however twice is encouraging.
His SOG price was good, however actually has room to develop. His SH% wasn’t in any respect unreasonable both. Additionally, slowly however certainly his PP TOI inched up, signifying the staff sees him as a serious contributor. His 5×5 staff SH% was 11.1%, which objectively is excessive. Nevertheless it’s not loopy excessive, as many are repeatedly in double digits. Additionally, his OZ% was 51.4%, and thus extra prone to rise than to fall. His secondary assists price was 40.5%, so no alarm bells there. Most necessary to me was his 73.3% total IPP, particularly when his IPP on the PP was solely 61.9%. For a participant who has lined up alongside Brayden Schenn and Jordan Kyrou for many of 2024-25 to have an IPP as excessive as meaning he’s a driver of offense and finds a strategy to issue into scoring, versus being a passenger bolstered by the ability of his linemates.
I would say straight away his 2024-25 tempo is just not unreasonable. The query is how a lot larger can he go? It will depend on PP time, SOG price, and different components. Additionally, the depth that St. Louis has on the LW place is of a minimum of some concern, as Holloway is much from a lock to maintain his spot if he hits a tough patch. Nonetheless, him enjoying in addition to he has for the overwhelming majority of the season appears to recommend he could have a reasonably lengthy leash. St. Louis being a deep staff may imply there will not be a number of ice time to go round, together with on the PP. As such, I really feel that Holloway is likely to be a protracted shot to be a constant level per gamer. However 70-75 factors appears doable.
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THE ANSWER TO WHO THE PLAYER IS……….Alex DeBrincat!
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Questions for Mailbag column wanted
The upcoming version of my month-to-month mailbag nonetheless has room for extra questions, which you’ll ship me by both personal messaging “rizzeedizzee” through the DobberHockey Boards, or emailing [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the topic line.
