The NHL Draft Lottery occurred on Monday evening, and in an enormous transfer up the board, the New York Islanders ended up successful the primary total decide. So, the staff that at present doesn’t have a common supervisor now has the primary total decide within the Draft. I ponder how a lot this modifications the view of the group from the standpoint of some potential interviewees.
On account of the Islanders transfer, the San Jose Sharks fell to second and Chicago Blackhawks to 3rd. The Utah Utes gained the second draw, which moved them as much as fourth place.
*
Los Angeles introduced on Monday that they had been parting methods with common supervisor Rob Blake. I at all times recognize how this stuff are worded; nobody quits or is fired anymore. They half methods, as if they are a group of mates leaving a bar and going residence at 2 AM.
We are going to see what the staff decides to do. They’ll change Blake internally or look exterior the group. There’s nonetheless numerous expertise, and nice younger expertise, so it is not as if this cabinet is wherever shut to reveal.
*
A pair of first-period targets from William Nylander set the tone for the Toronto Maple Leafs of their Spherical 2, Recreation 1 matchup towards the Florida Panthers, a recreation the Leafs would go on to win 5-4. Nylander later assisted on a Morgan Rielly purpose, giving the winger two targets, one help, and 4 photographs within the recreation.
Matthew Knies scored the game-winning purpose on a breakaway within the third interval, whereas additionally aiding on a Chris Tanev purpose within the second interval. The younger ahead completed with a purpose on three photographs, an help, and two hits within the win.
Anthony Stolarz made eight saves on 9 photographs earlier than being eliminated midway by means of the sport after taking an accidentally-on-purpose elbow to the top from Sam Bennett. Stolarz didn’t return, and Joseph Woll held down the fort the remainder of the way in which, stopping 17 of 20 photographs.
After the sport, Chris Johnston tweeted that Stolarz was taken out of the sector on a stretcher, so there’s much more to return from this.
Bennett, Eetu Luostarainen, Seth Jones (PP) and Uvis Balinskis scored the targets for Florida. Jones completed with a block and two hits to go along with his purpose.
Carter Verhaeghe assisted on each the Jones and Bennett targets, totaling 5 photographs and 7 hits within the loss.
Sergei Bobrovsky allowed 5 targets on 29 photographs.
*
My Ramblings over the past couple weeks have been reviewing preseason projections. We began with forwards who underperformed goal-scoring expectations, these who overperformed with their purpose totals, and a few forwards whose purpose tally was near their preseason projection. Then we moved to level totals to take a look at the forwards who fell quick and people who exceeded expectations. We’re going to wrap up the forwards right now by going over the names who fell very near my preseason projection.
We’re utilizing Pure Stat Trick for end-of-season information to check to my preseason projections. We’re additionally limiting the pattern to forwards projected for at the very least 20 factors and who appeared in at the very least 41 video games. Then we’re extrapolating all level totals to a full 82-game season to attempt to put everybody on the identical footing.
For the group that landed near their preseason level projections, we’re going plus/minus 5% of the projection. So, in the event that they had been projected for 50 factors in 82 video games, they produced someplace between 47-53 factors. Clear? Nice.
Right here the names between 2-5% above their projection:
Let’s speak about a couple of of them.
Tyler Toffoli (San Jose Sharks)
San Jose completed a distant final for the second yr in a row, however Toffoli had a productive fantasy season along with his third straight 30-goal marketing campaign whereas posting 233 photographs, which was a high 30 mark amongst all forwards. On a 60-minute foundation amongst forwards with at the very least 750 minutes performed (337 forwards), his purpose fee was 90th percentile and his shot fee was 97th percentile. That’s fairly good.
Toffoli turned 33 years previous simply after the season completed, so age-related decline is at all times a priority. The Sharks have good, younger forwards for him to play with, however because the staff improves, his spot on the highest power-play unit will get tenuous. For now, it appears protected that he has a top-6/high energy play function, however between the draft, any trades, and free company, let’s have a look at how the summer time goes.
Jonathan Huberdeau (Calgary Flames)
Trying round another projections, lots of people had Huberdeau within the 60-point vary, give or take 10% (Dobber had him at 59 factors in 80 video games, for instance). Nobody had him pushing for a 30-goal season, although, as he ended up with 28 targets and 34 assists. It’s a kind of instances the place numerous us had been proper however for the flawed causes. Undertaking tons of of gamers and that may occur.
It is a excellent news/dangerous information state of affairs. The dangerous information is that he shot a career-high 18.3%, the very best for him in any season the place he performed 70 video games, and his next-highest in a season with at the very least 60 video games is 15.1%. His three-year common from 2021-2024 was 11.6%, in order that’s going to return down subsequent yr.
The excellent news is that his underlying playmaking numbers at 5-on-5 improved quite a bit from from his earlier Flames performances, per the monitoring from AllThreeZones, as his scoring likelihood help fee improved by over 20% in comparison with his first two years in Calgary:
The important thing right here is his secondary help fee at 5-on-5 in 2024-25 was 0.21, or lower than half his first two years with the Flames (0.48). A rebound there may assist offset the incoming purpose drop and preserve him near 60 factors once more.
Kirill Kaprizov (Minnesota Wild)
It is a bizarre one as a result of it is exhausting to take a victory lap for a participant who barely met the minimal cut-off for video games performed with 41. Saying he would have replicated his first-half efficiency within the second half is a stretch, particularly once we know penalties get referred to as at a decrease fee because the season wears on.
From the projections I checked out, mine was highest on Kaprizov’s level complete and his efficiency was simply above that, extrapolated for 82 video games. It looks like a lifetime in the past now, however at Christmas, he was 1 of 5 gamers with at the very least 50 factors, together with Nathan MacKinnon (57), Leon Draisaitl (52), Mikko Rantanen (52), and Nikita Kucherov (50).
Total, not one of the numbers we take a look at for regression (particular person capturing proportion, staff capturing proportion, purpose participation, secondary assists at 5-on-5) had been out of vary for him. He was simply enjoying extraordinarily effectively and getting numerous ice time. He appears to be a lock as a top-10 fantasy decide in September.
Alright, let’s take a look at some gamers on the different finish, who had been between 2-5% decrease than my preseason level projection:
How about we begin with our Small Objectives Boy.
Cole Caufield (Montreal Canadiens)
Caufield had a wonderful season with career-highs in targets (37), factors (70), hits (66), and blocks (31). It’s also enjoyable to consider what his season would have regarded like had he not misplaced 1:20 per recreation in ice time (he performed 110 fewer minutes in 2024-25 than in 2023-24) and had Patrik Laine not scored (15) half the staff’s power-play targets (30) between December 1st and March 31st.
There are two methods to take a look at Caufield within the subsequent few years.
The primary manner is that Montreal and their younger core is beginning their ascent to being a perennial contender. They nonetheless have a methods to go, however there are a half-dozen skaters age-25 or youthful which can be the pillars of this staff, (hopefully) a pair extra younger stars on the way in which, and plenty of potential enhancements in some depth roles. Because the staff improves, so will Caufield’s manufacturing.
The second manner is that because the staff will get deeper, his function will get decreased, one thing we have already seen. Does he find yourself in a Tyler Toffoli-esque function, skating in a top-6/high energy play function however solely incomes about 17 minutes a recreation? As a Habs fan and fantasy hockey fanatic, I hope not, nevertheless it’s actually not out of the query.
JJ Peterka (Buffalo Sabres)
So far as I can inform, no different main projections had Peterka for over 70 factors in an 82-game season, and seeing as he completed with 68 factors in 77 video games, I am going to give myself an additional cookie with supper tonight.
In equity, Peterka capturing a career-high 15.6% did assist right here, nevertheless it’s additionally not as if that is an inconceivable quantity. Additionally, as talked about within the Ramblings on forwards whose purpose totals got here in very near my projection, my expectation was that Buffalo could be an improved offensive group beneath new coach Lindy Ruff, they usually had been. Couple that with Peterka simply being a great participant who’s approaching his prime, and plenty of high line/high PP minutes, and projecting an excellent season from him is smart.
Peterka is a really attention-grabbing participant. Right here is the aforementioned 5-on-5 monitoring information for his three full NHL seasons:
His first full yr noticed good charges of scoring likelihood assists (SCA/60), high-danger passes (HDPass/60), and good offensive creation each off the frenzy and cycle whereas not making an attempt numerous photographs. In his second season, because the staff pulled again on its offence to enhance its defence, Peterka’s numbers suffered nearly throughout the board, however he turned a heavy quantity shooter. This previous season, the playmaking numbers improved as soon as once more, however the offence off the frenzy and cycle each landed between his first two seasons, as did his fee of shot makes an attempt. It’s principally three totally different kinds of offence in three straight seasons.
Total, there ought to nonetheless be numerous pleasure about Peterka and his manufacturing potential. He’s a cornerstone for the Sabres, and his utilization ought to replicate as such. The true query is ‘What kind of participant is he?’ as a result of that hasn’t settled but as there’s been a lot upheaval across the staff.
