Welcome again to a different version of the Roos Lets Unfastened month-to-month mailbag, the place I reply your fantasy hockey questions by giving recommendation that ought to be helpful to all poolies even when they do not personal the precise gamers being mentioned. As a reminder, if you need your fantasy hockey query(s) answered within the subsequent mailbag, take a look at the tip of the column, the place I clarify the methods to get it/them to me in addition to the main points you must present when sending. The sooner you ship a query the extra doubtless it’s to be included within the mailbag, and the deeper dive I can present with my reply.
Query #1 (from Mathieu)
I’m in an 11 group league the place every group can preserve 8 gamers, of which not more than 3 will be defensemen, 5 will be forwards, and a couple of will be goalies. Every group additionally drafts 17 different gamers, for a complete of 25 per roster, with stats for the very best 15 F, 5D, and 2G counting. Scoring is factors just for skaters, and for goalies it is 2 factors for a win (plus 3 additional factors for a shutout), -1 level for a regulation loss or -0.5 for an OTL, in addition to 0.05 factors per save and -0.5 factors per aim allowed.
The tactic used for rating groups is predicated on a rating for forwards after which one for defensemen and goalies mixed, so a complete of two classes. We add the rating of the 2 classes for every participant and the winner is the particular person with the bottom whole rank. For instance, if I end third in forwards rating and 4th in defensemen/goalie rating, I might have a cumulative rating of seven, and I might win if no different group had a rating decrease than 5. A rating of 5 is commonly what it takes to really win.
For my keepers, I am pretty settled on Rasmus Dahlin, Adam Fox, Luke Hughes, Connor Bedard, Matvei Michkov, Matthew Tkachuk, and Brandon Hagel. By way of the eighth, I’ve narrowed it to Adam Fantilli, Dylan Guenther and Stuart Skinner. Who’d you select as my eighth, or would you select multiple, during which case which of my seven would you take away? In case it issues, somebody provided me a commerce of Jake Oetinger for Michkov. I worth Michkov very extremely; however final 4 winners have all had sturdy goalies so I ponder if I have to make the deal given Otter’s elite standing.
With keepers representing a few third of your roster, and greater than a 3rd of your line-up, they may matter fairly a bit. Nonetheless although, with solely 88 gamers being saved in whole, I’ve to suppose yours will likely be within the backside half of the league for 2025-26. It isn’t that you simply’re retaining dangerous gamers – you simply haven’t got sufficient of the very best of the very best…..for now. That is key, as between Bedard, Michkov, Dahlin, Fox, Hughes, Guenther and Fantilli you may place your self for lots of success in a simply couple of years.
Additionally, if certainly goalies are so coveted, and Skinner is your solely choice, that isn’t nice. However Otter would provide you with a netminder who’s elite and may stay so for fairly a while. As such, I might attempt to supply Tkachuk for Otter, as Tkachuk turns 28 in December and appears to have settled beneath 100 factors, but nonetheless has the lure to different GMs of probably with the ability to return to his previous heights. I additionally am leery of him given the punishment he takes in view of the model he performs. As for Hagel, he is now a confirmed prime participant; however we have virtually assuredly seen his greatest given his continued lack of ability to supply nicely on the PP.
Sure, you retain Dahlin, Fox, Hughes, Bedard, and Michkov, plus Otter should you get him for Thachuk. When you can not get Otter for Tkachuk straight up, that will throw a little bit of a monkey wrench into issues. However in that case, I might contemplate a deal of Hughes and Tkachuk for Otter plus a participant but to completely escape however who has excessive upside, like William Eklund or Matthew Knies. I notice that Hughes was purple scorching to finish the season, suggesting he is arrived. However if you need Otter, it may cost you Hughes to get him and Dougie Hamilton nonetheless looms. Additionally, this is able to resolve the dilemma of which to maintain of Fantilli and Guenther. If by some means you can’t get a ok participant again in a deal of Hughes and Tkachuk for Otter, then accept a draft choose and preserve Hagel with the plan of buying and selling him throughout the season. Good luck!
Query #2 (from Andrew)
I’m in a 12 group full keeper. Rosters include 12F, 6D, 2G. There are 3 extra spots for use nevertheless the GM sees match. There’s a farm with as much as 12 spots as nicely. The farm can solely have gamers who’ve already been drafted however not but accomplished their entry degree contracts. Farm salaries don’t depend in opposition to the cap except they get moved to the principle roster. The league makes use of NHL AAV for wage and has the identical cap. Classes and scoring are, for forwards, G(1), A(1), PPPt(0.5), SHP(1), GWG(1), OTPt(1), SOG(0.5), Photographs(0.1), HIT(0.1), PIM(-0.1), for defensemen it is the identical besides G(1.5), SHP(2), OTPt(2), and for goalies it is W(2), L(-1), Shootout Loss (1), SO(2), SV(0.03), GA(-0.1), Objective Scored (5), Help(2), Time beyond regulation Consequence (1),
I’ve completed prime 2 the final 4 years and hope to proceed this run. However I am at a crossroad in that I even have plenty of present FAs and am already tight in opposition to the cap. Listed here are my common gamers, with their AAV or a sign that they are an RFA: Clayton Keller ($7.15M), Kyle Connor ($7.143M), Zach Hyman ($5.5M), Adrian Kempe ($5.5M), Joel Eriksson-Ek ($5.25M), Bryan Rust ($5.125M), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ($5.125M), Dylan Strome ($5M), Jared McCann ($5M), Gabe Vilardi (RFA), Mason McTavish (RFA), Nikolai Kovalenko (RFA), Jakub Chychrun ($9M), Josh Morrissey ($6.25), Shea Theodore ($7.425M), MacKenzie Weegar ($6.25M), Lane Huston ($1.333M), Evan Bouchard (RFA), Conor Timmins (RFA), Logan Thompson ($5.85M), and Dustin Wolf (0.85M). The entire is $90.927M with out the RFAs, though if I needed to guess the mixed worth of the RFA offers will likely be round $25M (Bouchard 11, Vilardi 7.5, McTavish 6, Timmins 1, Kovalenko 1).
Listed here are my farm guys with their AAV: Danila Yurov ($2.95M), Cutter Gauthier ($1.9M), Samuel Helenius ($1.543M), Michael Brandsegg-Nygard ($1.443M), Jonathan Lekermaki ($1.393M), Sam
Rinzel ($1.367M), Zachary Bolduc ($1.276M), William Wallinder ($0.925M), Sean Behrens ($0.925M),
Paul Andrea ($0.925M), Anton Silayev (unsigned).
I’m unsure what to do. I might drop costly gamers and certain nonetheless be fairly aggressive this yr, however might battle within the following years. Or I might preserve the costly gamers in anticipation of a rising cap, however make some powerful cuts for the right here and now. I’m leaning in direction of shifting Chychrun (nice outcomes final yr however too costly now) and Thompson (goalies don’t get sufficient factors to spend massive cap house), however I might nonetheless doubtless want to maneuver one other participant or two doubtless both a pair forwards or the costly Bouchard. What do you consider this plan? What would your ultimate roster include? Is there any solution to thread the needle keep aggressive now and down the highway?
Your group may be very sturdy, as you might have gamers who aren’t too costly, but aren’t solely confirmed however in some instances should get even higher. It is no surprise your group has carried out in addition to it has. However as you might have astutely identified, I might say you are at – or nearing – a crossroads. Let’s attempt to determine the very best path ahead on your group.
Wanting first at your RFAs, Vilardi has arrived, which implies you must be capable to rely upon him, but in addition that he’ll earn considerably greater than had he been an RFA final summer season. Nonetheless, I might say $7.5M wouldn’t be too bitter of a tablet to swallow. As for McTavish, he was taking part in at a prime degree within the second half, with practically point-per-game scoring and three SOG per recreation. However his poor 2023-24 and first half of 2024-25 will doubtless preserve his wage at a degree nicely beneath what he is “price.” Bouchard will receives a commission so much, and it could be sufficient to trigger you to stroll away, as his metrics had been much like 2023-24 besides the next secondary help fee however decrease 5×5 group SH%. He would possibly simply be a 65-point d-man who can do higher if a rising tide lifts his boat, however not on his personal accord. He’d be a tricky drop, however maybe a prudent one.
Chychrun is already costly, however is locked up long run and the Caps look poised to be a robust group even after Alex Ovechkin and John Carlson have retired. The problem is Chychrun has by no means ran a PP1 on any group, and thus even when he’s slotted to tackle that position as soon as Carlson is out of the image, it isn’t clear he’d thrive. He additionally just isn’t very sturdy in banger classes. On a constructive be aware, he has missed solely eight video games over the previous two seasons; so slightly than getting extra harm susceptible as he ages, which is most typical, he really may very well be growing older out of his band-aid boy standing. Nonetheless, if Bouchard just isn’t a preserve at a possible $11M per season, I can not see a universe the place Chychrun is at $9M.
But when certainly Chychrun just isn’t saved, can room be made for Bouchard with out it being a internet detrimental? I believe you’ll be able to safely drop RNH, who, though not paid so much, merely just isn’t a confirmed producer. He did get a number of ice time with Connor McDavid within the first half of 2024-25, but nonetheless did not thrive. He’ll doubtless preserve his PP1 spot, however has settled again into his regular 20-25 PPPts, which isn’t nice. I additionally really feel you might be astute in taking a look at Thompson as a doable drop. His high quality of play declined considerably because the season wore on, this regardless of taking part in fewer video games than 2023-24 and saving his greatest for final that season. May it have been complacency after signing his new deal on the finish of January? Powerful to say, however the truth that him inking it coincided with a serious drop in efficiency is regarding. It could sound counterintuitive, however I might really really feel higher in regards to the concept of retaining him if he earned extra, as we have seen from the likes of John Gibson, Philip Grubauer and Tristan Jarry that incomes $5-6M doesn’t give one a vice grip on the beginning position. Past that, even after Thompson signed, he by no means made greater than two begins in a row, this after a stretch of seven straight begins earlier in January.
In abstract, I believe should you preserve Bouchard, you undoubtedly let Chychrun go, plus one or each of RNH and Thompson. Even when Bouchard just isn’t saved, I might take a look at dropping Chychrun and RNH, however maybe in that case roll the cube with Thompson provided that goalies don’t develop on bushes. Good luck!
Query #3 (from Doug)
I’m in a points-only (plus 10% PIM) keeper and have two questions for you. By the use of background, my large rebuild goes nicely as I not solely was capable of draft Connor Bedard however Macklin Celebrini and Matvei Michkov too.
The primary query is what to make of Anton Lundell. I see nice potential; and when he is been given the possibility to be within the prime 6 he produces, however not sufficient to displace Sam Bennett. If Florida re-signs Bennett, ought to I reduce and run and commerce him? Second, along with Lundell, I’ve 5 forwards on my bench and need assistance rating them with a purpose to drop 3 as I’ve Zeev Buium, Frank Nazar and Ryan Leonard ready within the wings. They’re Bobby Brink, Morgan Frost, Ryan McLeod, Casey Mittelstadt, and Owen Tippett. Which three would you retain should you had been me?
I’ve mentioned it many occasions in my columns, and it nonetheless applies, which is that Lundell is following the blueprint of Jordan Staal, particularly a really proficient first rounder who was pigeonholed into a 3rd line position as a consequence of his all-around expertise plus being on a really deep group which occurs to have two different facilities locked into prime six roles. Simply as Staal confirmed flashes of stable manufacturing when one or each of Sidney Crosby and/or Evgeni Malkin bought harm, so too has Lundell when Aleksander Barkov and/or Sam Bennett have missed time as a consequence of harm. But additionally, simply as Staal was demoted to the third line when each of the Pen facilities had been again to well being, so too has been the destiny of Lundell.
With the success Florida has had, they don’t seem to be more likely to repair what is not damaged, simply because the Pens didn’t both after they had been a powerhouse, leaving Staal caught on the third line. However the wild card right here is Bennett being a UFA this summer season and having had such a robust playoffs, such {that a} group would possibly coax him away from Florida.
If Bennett leaves, I’ve to suppose Florida offers Lundell a protracted take a look at second line middle obligation. Nonetheless although, it won’t get him on PP1, as Bennett didn’t have a spot there. And who’s to say that Lundell would do in addition to a mainstay in that position?
What’s key right here is Lundell just isn’t being in contrast in opposition to top-tier expertise in deciding your three drops. For instance, Morgan Frost was thought by many to have been the sufferer of the Torts impact, but when he bought to Calgary he fared even worse. Granted, he arrived midseason, and continues to be solely 26 years previous, so he might nonetheless blossom. However Lundell is 2 years youthful and even when caught on the third line doubtless can be extra productive than Frost given the wealth of expertise in Florida.
Then there’s Mittlestadt, who, like Frost, was traded midseason however fared worse on a group the place he must have finished higher. For Mittlestadt to have ended with fewer than a point-per-every-other-game after beginning with 14 in 13 contests is sort of regarding. Additionally, it isn’t like Boston had a scenario like in Florida, as their prime two facilities had been Pavel Zacha and Elias Lindholm, each of whom had subpar campaigns. But Mittlestadt made no inroads, which, together with the grim outlook for the Bs, doesn’t bode nicely for Mittlestadt.
Brink has had flashes of sturdy play, but in addition has all however vanished for lengthy stretches. He doesn’t shoot so much, and has been weak on the PP. He is also a RW on a group that has each Travis Konecny and Owen Tippett locked up for giant cash and long run, so he could be caught on the third line as nicely. I do like that he had a robust IPP final season; however I am afraid he has an excessive amount of of an uphill climb to turn out to be an actual fantasy issue. Talking of Tippett, who can also be amongst these you are contemplating, I believe he isn’t a drop given his contract will preserve him within the top-six plus him having completed fourth in the complete NHL amongst forwards in SOG per recreation in 2023-24. He could be reborn within the publish Torts period.
McLeod got here to the Sabres with out big expectations; nevertheless, given the exodus of Dylan Cozens and the poor observe document of well being for Josh Norris, he would possibly stand an opportunity at turning into the second line middle for the Sabres, or, at the least, like Lundell, a participant who will get probabilities in that position if/when Tage Thompson and Norris, who’re each Band-Support Boys, get harm.
Given all this, I consider your considerations relating to Lundell are moot, as even when the worst-case situation does find yourself taking place, he nonetheless just isn’t one of many three weakest gamers on that record. Neither is Tippett, who has a really actual shot of a rebirth. That leaves one spot for Brink, Mittlestadt, McLeod, and Frost, and I like McLeod. He is solely 25 and fared nicely final season plus, like Lundell, ought to find yourself being put in as a prime six middle if/when one of many Band-Support Boys forward of him within the depth chart will get harm. So the drops are Frost, Mittlestadt and Brink. Good luck!
Query #4 (from Kyle)
In a wage cap keeper with classes of G, A, PPP, SOG, HIT, BLK, W, GAA, SV%. Beginning lineups are 3C, 3RW, 3LW, 6D, 1G. On this format, which eight ought to I preserve amongst Auston Matthews, J.T. Miller, Zach Werenski, Filip Forsberg, Sam Bennett, Moritz Seider, Clayton Keller, Andrei Svechnikov, Matthew Knies, Zach Hyman, Kiefer Sherwood, Dylan Holloway, Logan Stankoven, Joseph Woll?
I depend 14 gamers, so six have to be eradicated from keeper competition. Let’s begin easy – not Woll. Sure, with two of the three classes not being volume-based, there will be worth to somebody who, like Woll, could be in a time share; nevertheless, I haven’t got plenty of religion that he would be the 1A, nor, even when he’s, that he’ll be sturdy in GAA and SV%. So he is a non-keep.
After that, Matthews and Werenski are elite sufficient to be locks. And JT Miller, though beginning to get to that age the place hitters can see their manufacturing drop, ought to be saved too, as he was reborn after he bought settled in New York. We have seen a number of occasions previously how wonderful he can he in multicat banger leagues. I additionally like Forsberg, as though he isn’t getting any youthful he was practically a point-per-game participant final season regardless of the trainwreck that was the Preds, and actually was a point-per-game participant within the second half. Till he really falters, he needs to be a preserve. So too does Seider, who didn’t make the offensive strides that many – myself included – thought he would final season. However he did fare higher, and he is nonetheless multicat gold. He is a preserve as nicely.
That leaves Bennett, Keller, Svechnikov, Knies, Hyman, Sherwood, Holloway and Stankoven for the opposite 4 spots. Knies seems to be to be stepping up sooner than was thought, and fills a necessity for Toronto that can exist whether or not or not Mitch Marner stays, particularly that of a bodily participant who has the talent to skate with essentially the most elite gamers on the group, plus be a net-front presence on PP1. He’s a preserve in my guide. Keller had a brilliant season and Utah seems to be to be a group on the climb, with Keller more likely to keep on the highest line and PP. He’s weak in banger cats, however a participant with level per recreation draw back and 90+ level upside just isn’t one you do not preserve. Bennett has 55-point draw back, is nice in banger classes, and will do even higher if he decides to signal elsewhere and will get the PP1 position that has eluded him in his time with Florida. He is a preserve in my guide as nicely. Hyman would’ve been a layup if this was a season in the past; however he had a 2024-25 to neglect, and may need simply been on very lengthy scorching streak, versus defining a brand new regular, particularly once we look again and see he wasn’t even a 60-point participant his first season in Edmonton nor ever with the Leafs. Svech has been earmarked for achievement ever since being picked second total. However regardless of being a PP1 fixture, he’s capturing much less and would possibly now not even be the 70-point flooring participant that he was till final season. Sherwood was a monster in 2024-25, however let me toss two names on the market: Dakota Joshua and Tanner Jeannot. Each had been beforehand regarded as poised to offer a useful mixture of banger stats and first rate factors, but that hasn’t occurred. Additionally, contemplate that Sherwood is already 30, and a brand new coach is coming to Vancouver who would possibly pigeonhole him. He’s not a preserve in my guide. Neither is Stankoven, as though being on Carolina will all however assure he sees an excellent chunk of ice time, the group has too many gamers forward of him on the depth chart, and as an undersized participant he might take some time earlier than he really hits his stride. Thus, it comes all the way down to Svech or Hyman for the final spot, and I am retaining Hyman, as his flooring is both corresponding to or barely decrease than that of Svech, however his ceiling is greater. Nonetheless, I might be okay with the choice should you opted for Svech as a substitute, since it’s shut sufficient for private choice to tilt the scales. Good luck!
Query #5 (from Ben)
As of now, 9 groups will enter 2025-26 with new coaches. Which of them do you see as having essentially the most constructive or detrimental fantasy affect?
Whereas I knew a number of new coaches can be on the helm for 2025-26, I did not bear in mind it was as many as 9. However that’s what number of groups – to this point – have made teaching modifications prematurely of 2025-26.
For me, the largest constructive could be felt in Dallas. This can be a group with a participant, in Jason Robertson, who scored 109 factors a few seasons in the past, plus Wyatt Johnston, who, at 21 is a two-time 30 aim scorer. Regardless of their apparent expertise, Johnston averaged solely the 58th highest TOI per recreation amongst forwards who performed in at the least 41 video games, and Robertson was even decrease at 103rd. It was not a lot better on the PP, with Robertson rating forty fourth in PPTOI per recreation and Johnston forty ninth. In essence, Dallas was rolling three strains and two PPs, and it had led to success. However with most groups bestowing way more ice time of prime expertise, it stands to motive the very best of the very best on Dallas will get a lot better deployment
Let’s not neglect that Joel Quenneville was on the helm when Chicago, who was brimming with prime expertise of their 20s, gained three Stanley Cups in six seasons. And though no one in every of Anaheim will likely be mistaken for Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, or Duncan Keith, or at the least not but, their cabinet is stocked with many kids who might thrive with a coach who has a observe document of turning younger groups into not simply winners, however fantasy successes alongside the best way.
Mike Sullivan in New York can also be intriguing, as he was capable of proceed to get so much from the growing older core of the Pens even past when many thought that would happen. If the Rangers choose to try to maintain onto a few of their veterans as a substitute of doing a full rebuild, he could be simply the suitable man to assist preserve them fantasy related.
Rick Tocchet in Philly will profit from a gaggle who will likely be thrilled to have anybody however John Tortorella. Moreover, past that, Tocchet was on the helm when the Canucks had three straight seasons with a ahead producing at a 100+ level tempo, which bodes nicely for expertise like Travis Konecny and Matvei Michkov.
I am much less optimistic about modifications made in Seattle, Vancouver and Chicago. With the Kraken, Lambert is a disciple of Barry Trotz, underneath whom skaters discovered it troublesome to thrive. Nevertheless it would possibly assist the Kraken netminders, with extra of an emphasis on protection. As for the Canucks, my concern is Foote had been the assistant, so there won’t be the “new blood” issue to encourage the group to step up. The Hawks employed Jeff Blashill, who, though by no means blessed with prime tier expertise whereas in Detroit, nonetheless didn’t lead the group to success, nor did he assist increase fantasy numbers for even prime expertise like Dylan Larkin.
With Boston and Pittsburgh, I believe the modifications will likely be impartial, as these groups’ fates appear extra tied to the gamers they’ve. However model new coaches have each thrived and struggled, so it’s price watching to see if both or each can get extra from their groups than is anticipated. Good query!
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I am all the time on the lookout for mailbag questions, so do not hesitate to ship them to me. You may get accomplish that in one in every of two methods: (1) by emailing them to [email protected] with the phrases “Roos Mailbag” as the topic line, or (2) by sending them to me through a personal message on the DobberHockey Boards, the place my username is “rizzeedizzee”.
When sending me your questions, bear in mind to offer as a lot element about your league/scenario as doable. Examples of issues I have to know embrace what sort of league you are in (i.e., restricted keeper, dynasty, or one-year; roto vs. H2H; public sale – in that case, what the price range is – or non-auction), what number of groups are within the league, does the wage cap matter, what number of gamers are rostered (and of these, what number of begin at every place in addition to what number of bench and/or IR spots there are), what classes are scored and the way are they weighted, plus different particulars if pertinent. In case your query entails whether or not to choose up or drop a participant, give me an inventory of prime free brokers out there and let me know if the variety of pick-ups is restricted or if there’s a precedence system for pick-ups. When you’re considering of creating a commerce, it might be good to know not solely the roster of the opposite group you would possibly commerce with but in addition the place you stand in your classes. In case your query entails keepers, along with giving me the choices for who to maintain, let me know if offseason buying and selling is allowed and to what extent it’s a viable choice given your league. In sum, the secret is to inform me sufficient for me to provide you a very correct reply, and for readers of this column to learn from the reply/recommendation I present. When unsure, it is best to err on the aspect of inclusion since I can all the time omit or disregard issues that do not matter.
