With the sequence wrapped up, this week’s version of Analytics Benefit breaks down why the Florida Panthers claimed back-to-back titles over the Edmonton Oilers. Florida took the ultimate 4–2, profitable three of the final 4 video games by a dominant 16–4, together with a 5–1 clincher on residence ice. Conn Smythe winner Sam Bennett capped off his MVP run with 15 playoff targets, whereas Sergei Bobrovsky was stellar in internet, most notably making 28 saves in Recreation 6. Edmonton’s star duo, Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, had been held in verify, and Corey Perry has misplaced within the finals in 5 of the final six years.
Let’s begin with how the goalies fared.
Targets Saved Above Common (GSAA) vs Anticipated Targets Towards (xGA)
This chart seems at goaltending efficiency based mostly on GSAA on the X-axis and xGA on the Y-axis. Goalies up and to the appropriate are enjoying above expectations and dealing with a heavy workload. Backside left is the other , struggling and never dealing with a lot.
There are solely three goalies on this chart, however they inform the story. Sergei Bobrovsky lands firmly within the high proper. He confronted the very best anticipated workload and nonetheless saved greater than anticipated. That sort of sequence can swing a Cup Remaining, and it did.
Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard sit to the left, with below-average outcomes regardless of common xGA. Neither was in a position to step up in the best way Bobrovsky did. That hole in goaltending performed a giant half in how this sequence ended.
Common Shot Distance vs Save Share
This chart maps common shot distance confronted on the X-axis and save share on the Y-axis. Goalies within the high proper are dealing with their photographs effectively, even from up shut. Backside left means hassle, comfortable saves and close-range publicity.
The story is just like the final chart. Sergei Bobrovsky leads the best way once more with a robust save share even when he confronted a a lot additional common shot distance. Calvin Pickard comes out barely forward of Stuart Skinner right here, posting higher numbers total, however it’s value noting that Skinner performed the heavier minutes throughout the sequence.
This chart would not provide a lot past reinforcing what we already know: Bobrovsky stepped up. Edmonton’s goalies did not.
Offensive Zone Begins vs Defensive Zone Begins
This chart breaks down deployment: Offensive zone begins on the X-axis and Defensive zone begins on the Y-axis. Gamers on the high are trusted in their very own zone. Gamers on the appropriate get most of their begins within the offensive zone. Center six guys often land within the heart, whereas specialists or high-leverage gamers present up on the extremes.
Wanting on the high of the chart, we see extra Panthers than Oilers, which tells the story. Adam Henrique, Niko Mikkola, and Seth Jones all noticed heavy defensive utilization, and the Panthers choices weren’t alone as Florida had a number of gamers they may belief in powerful spots. Edmonton, then again, leaned virtually completely on Henrique for shutdown shifts. There simply weren’t many different solutions.
Offensively, the McDavid-Draisaitl-Perry line exhibits up closely tilted towards the appropriate, together with Evan Bouchard , in addition to Evan Rodrigues for the Panthers. These had been the go-to creators when the Oilers wanted zone stress.
On the backside left, you may discover function gamers and bottom-six skaters who did not begin many shifts at both finish, typically approaching throughout line modifications. The center of the chart is filled with middle-six contributors who dealt with a mixture of deployments with out being leaned on too closely in a single route.
PDO vs CorsiFor%
This chart maps PDO (a mixture of taking pictures% and save%) on the X-axis towards CorsiFor% on the Y-axis. The highest proper is the place you wish to be, driving play and getting the bounces. Backside left is the worst-case zone, low influence and no luck.
Wanting on the chart, the cut up between the 2 groups is evident. Solely 4 Oilers completed above common in puck luck (PDO): Mattias Janmark, Viktor Arvidsson, Vasiliy Podkolzin, and Jeff Skinner. Everybody else was both unfortunate, ineffective, or each. In distinction, solely three Panthers fell under the common line for puck luck, and even these gamers nonetheless benefited from sturdy team-level assist.
One standout right here is Corey Perry. He had a robust influence on shot share and play-driving however landed effectively under the PDO line. It is exhausting to not surprise how totally different this sequence might’ve regarded if just a few extra bounces went his approach, or the Oilers’ approach typically.
The information backs it up: Florida did not simply get fortunate, they confirmed up throughout the board. Their greatest gamers had been productive, and their depth gamers had been concerned. Edmonton’s stars produced too, however the assist fell quick, and the luck wasn’t on their aspect.
Anticipated Targets For (xGF) vs Precise Targets For (GF)
This chart plots anticipated targets for (xGF) on the X-axis and precise targets for (GF) on the Y-axis. The highest proper is the candy spot, you are producing high quality probabilities and really ending them. Backside left is the place issues stall out, low shot high quality and low outcomes.
As soon as once more, the development holds. Florida dominates the highest proper quadrant, with most of their roster producing as anticipated, or higher. Carter Verhaeghe stood out specifically, sitting excessive on each axes after a standout offensive sequence.
In distinction, solely 5 Oilers present up in a productive spot. Past the highest performers, the remainder of the staff fell quick. Edmonton’s backside six specifically is clustered within the backside left, a transparent signal that depth scoring by no means arrived. That they had probabilities, however the end simply wasn’t there.
Florida, then again, had just a few gamers in that backside left zone. Almost everybody contributed, which exhibits up clearly right here. That degree of all-line scoring stress was a difference-maker.
Anticipated Targets Towards (xGA) vs Targets Towards (GA)
This chart exhibits anticipated targets towards (xGA) on the X-axis and precise targets towards (GA) on the Y-axis. Backside left is the perfect zone, low hazard allowed and low targets towards. High proper is the place issues crumble, permitting probabilities and getting scored on.
Right here, the cut up is as soon as once more clear. Florida has a wholesome cluster of gamers within the backside left, displaying sturdy defensive construction and execution. Edmonton, then again, has far too many skaters touchdown within the high proper; overexposed, overrun, and crushed.
Some Oilers had been simply caught on the fallacious finish of issues, getting peppered and giving up targets. Others weren’t concerned a lot in any respect, floating within the decrease left with little defensive workload or influence. That is not essentially signal, both. It factors to a staff leaning too closely on a small group as an alternative of a full-unit effort.
On the finish of the day, Florida performed like a staff, whereas Edmonton leaned on just a few stars. When the construction breaks down, the goalie struggles, and the bounces go the opposite approach, it is simply not sufficient to win. That is what occurred right here.
Edmonton has confirmed they’re the category of the West. However beating Florida, and profitable a Cup, means being the most effective staff within the league. They don’t seem to be there but, and this offseason will likely be about determining easy methods to shut that hole.
Thanks for testing this Stanley Cup Remaining breakdown. From puck luck to zone deployment to goaltending stress, the numbers give us a clearer image of why Florida got here out on high. If you wish to dig into the charts your self, use the filters and staff views in every Tableau tab. As at all times, be happy to succeed in out on Twitter @DH_staspup in the event you’ve bought questions or wish to discuss hockey. See you subsequent week.
