Welcome again to Goldipucks and the Three Skaters, a play on phrases of the Goldilocks and the Three Bears story. As an alternative of there being three bowls of porridge although, I cowl three skaters and declare one too scorching (i.e., doing unsustainably higher than he ought to), one other too chilly (i.e., doing unsustainably worse), and a 3rd “good” (i.e., producing the place he needs to be). As well as, I additionally assign every a score of 1-10, indicating how scorching (rated 7-10, the place 10 is probably the most unsustainably scorching), chilly (rated 1-4, the place 1 is probably the most unsustainably chilly), or “good” (rated 4-7, the place 5.5 is probably the most “good”) he’s.
Proper round this time yearly I exploit this column to give attention to goalies, slightly than skaters, as an alternative making this “Goaliepucks and the Three Netminders.” The identical requirements that usually apply nonetheless apply right here as nicely, besides to goalies in lieu of skaters, with the three I chosen being Filip Gustavsson, Logan Thompson, and Adin Hill. See in the event you can efficiently apply what you have realized in being loyal Goldipucks readers to guess which goalie had a 2024-25 that was too scorching, versus too chilly or simply proper, after which discover out in the event you bought sufficient right to earn a High quality Begin or as an alternative are saddled with a Actually Unhealthy Begin.
Filip Gustavsson (58 GP, 31 W, 5 SO, 2,56 GAA, 0.914 SV%)
Grabbed within the second spherical in 2016, Gustavsson spent elements of 5 seasons within the AHL. By 2022-23 although, he’d fared nicely sufficient, and the Wild had such tight wage constraints, that he earned the back-up gig. To say he thrived could be an enormous understatement, with 22 wins in 39 video games plus a GAA of two.10 and SV% of .930. However he faltered majorly in 2023-24, such that for 2024-25 many felt Jesper Wallstedt may displace him as back-up to Marc-Andre Fleury. As an alternative, Gustavsson bounced again and appears to have a agency grip on Minnesota’s beginning job. However may he take one other step again in 2025-26? Or may he fare even higher? When the mud settles on 2025-26, anticipate Gustavsson to see modest enhancements.
Trying first at High quality Begins, Gustavsson’s 69.0% was second among the many 22 goalies who performed 50+ video games, solely behind Connor Hellebuyck. But it surely was larger than any 50+ recreation goalie since 2021-22. Who had larger charges that season? Igor Shesterkin and Ilya Sorokin, who each have fared worse in subsequent seasons. So having a QS% as excessive as he did is nice, because it means he’s for positive very gifted; however it probably has just one approach to go, which is down. However his 13.8% Actually Unhealthy Begin fee was larger than these two in 2021-22, and thus is an space the place he could make strides, particularly since in two cases he had back-to-back Actually Unhealthy Begins, indicative of lack of expertise. As such, I would say High quality Begins and Actually Unhealthy Begins collectively ought to end in no marked adjustments to his key stats for 2025-26.
In weeks the place he did not have these consecutive Actually Unhealthy Begins, Gustavsson was elite, as solely Hellebuyck and Andrei Vasilevskiy had extra “Star Weeks” weeks (outlined as having no less than two wins and a SV% 2% or extra above the league common). Additionally notable was that he had a .924 even power SV%, fourth greatest amongst 22 goalies who performed 50+ video games, and this regardless of an extra time SV% of .765, which put him solely 14th amongst these 22 goalies. This segues to an space of word, which is Minnesota will be capable of spend freely this summer time for the primary time since Gustavsson turned a daily, with the probably end result being a lift to Gus’ stats as nicely.
It is usually good to see that Gustavsson had numbers that had been virtually similar each house and away, in contrast to Hellebuyck and Vasilevskiy, who fared much better at house. This may recommend Gustavsson could be extra more likely to keep his efficiency stage within the regular course, however maybe see it bolstered because of, as famous, the Wild enhancing as a workforce.
What can be optimistic is the shortage of variation between Gustavsson’s SV% on totally different days relaxation, because it was between .914 and .917 with one, two, and three days relaxation. Given {that a} starter will usually see motion most frequently following these numbers of days relaxation, that may be a superb signal. With zero days relaxation although it dropped to 0.857% and with greater than three days relaxation it was decrease too at 0.903%. However at the moment, it’s uncommon for a goalie to play on again to again days or have a spot of 4 or extra days between begins. So this stage of consistency in his SV% is strongly indicative of Gustavsson being poised to stay a steady, constant starter in 2025-26.
Gus additionally may see extra wins within the regular course, as his shootout SV% was solely .667. It could solely enhance, and, in doing so, get him extra wins, which additionally may happen because of, as famous above, a greater OT SV% and Minnesota getting higher as a workforce. His SV% within the third interval additionally was loads weaker at solely 0.904%. All these strike me as areas that can enhance over time, and he has the extra necessary issues already going for him as listed above, plus the actual fact he was certainly one of simply three goalies, with but once more Hellebuyck and Vasilevskiy being the one others, who performed in 50+ video games and had no less than double the variety of video games with a SV% of .950 or higher versus video games with a SV% of .850 or worse.
It is usually superb that Gustavsson had as many wins as he did, because the Wild, who as a workforce solely averaged 2.78 objectives per recreation, which was seventh worst within the NHL, averaged a good decrease 2.52 objectives per recreation when Gustavsson was within the crease, which is a decrease fee than the bottom fee for any workforce as an entire. This speaks to only how nice he was, and the way he ought to particularly be due for extra wins as Minnesota’s spending helps enhance its offense.
Gustavsson’s 2024-25 stats already put him among the many elite goalies within the NHL, and the workforce round him solely stands to enhance, maybe vastly. Additionally, his weak factors are areas that are more likely to progress with time and expertise. As such, Gustavsson’s 2024-25 was someway TOO COLD, and he will get a score of three.25, as he’s more likely to fare even higher because of sturdy metrics and his workforce scoring extra.
Logan Thompson (43 GP, 31 W, 2 SO, 2.49 GAA, .910 SV%)
Undrafted, Thompson frolicked within the AHL and ECHL earlier than lastly getting inked to an ELC by Vegas in the course of the summer time of 2020. From there, he appeared in a single 2020-21 recreation, then 19 contests in 2021-22, and 38 in 2022-23, faring fairly nicely alongside the way in which. He noticed his GP improve but once more in 2023-24 to 46 in whole, profitable 25 video games. However with Vegas committing to Adin Hill, Thompson requested to be dealt, and located himself on Washington, the place he tallied an incredible 31 wins regardless of enjoying solely 43 contests, incomes himself a six 12 months deal paying him $5.85M per marketing campaign. Can he enhance, or no less than hold tempo along with his 2024-25 stats? Most probably the latter.
Despite the fact that Thompson saved profitable because the season wore on, his peripherals had been markedly worse within the second half, i.e., after he inked his new deal on the finish of January. Did he ease off the gasoline pedal? Did groups determine him out? Both approach, it was not reassuring, as was the truth that even after signing that dimension of a deal he didn’t begin greater than two video games in a row the remainder of the season, this after being within the crease for seven straight contests earlier within the month of January. That is worrisome, since though $5.85M is unquestionably chunk of cash, it is in the identical neighborhood as what Tristan Jarry, Philipp Grubauer, and John Gibson are being paid and so they couldn’t keep a vice grip on beginning roles.
On a optimistic word, like Gustavsson, Thompson had twice as many video games with a SV% of .950 or larger as in comparison with ones of .850 or much less. However Thompson had markedly higher numbers away than house, which, if something, is trigger for optimism, since many a goalie thrives at house whereas struggling on the street. Thompson additionally had a lofty 62.8% High quality Begin %, good for fifth greatest among the many 30 goalies who appeared in no less than half of their groups’ video games in 2024-25. Like Gustafsson although, Thompson’s Actually Unhealthy Begin share was a bit excessive at 14.0%, though two of his six RBSs got here in his final three begins of the season, maybe making them simpler to excuse.
Just like Gustavsson as nicely, Thompson’s even power SV% was larger, at .918; but within the case of Thompson his PK and PP SV% had been solely ok to complete in the course of the pack. And though Thompson got here up big within the third interval, with the third greatest SV% among the many 30 goalies who noticed motion in 41+ video games, he faltered majorly in OT, with the fifth worst SV% at 0.688, giving up 5 OT objectives. However that may solely rise, and is sort of factor to see, since though it’s unlikely Thompson would’ve received such a excessive share of video games within the regular course subsequent season the actual fact he misplaced six video games in extra time ought to offset or come near offsetting fewer wins in regulation.
Additionally, though at first Thompson’s mere 4 star weeks appears low, everybody behind him apart from Joseph Woll had no less than 4 extra video games performed, with the bulk all having over 50. And no goalies who had extra did so in fewer video games, with solely Linus UIlmark and Jacob Markstrom doing so with out showing in 50 video games. Like Gustavsson, Thompson had sturdy save percentages with one and two days relaxation, that are commonest for a real starter. His SV% slid to .907 for 3 days relaxation, and .897 for 4 or extra. Nonetheless, that is the type of route one needs to see for a presumed starter, and bodes nicely for continued success. And Thompson was stronger within the shootout, stopping 80% of the pictures he confronted.
It’s value noting although that the Caps averaged a staggeringly excessive 3.93 objectives per recreation in contests that Thompson began, versus their 3.51 objectives per recreation fee total. Nonetheless, it is probably that he’d have received most, if not all, of his video games had the Caps solely scored at their regular fee, which was second highest within the NHL, so this is likely to be much less consequential than it may appear. Additionally, Thompson did in addition to he did regardless of dealing with a mean shot distance that was eighth lowest within the NHL. It probably cannot get a lot worse although, which is a optimistic.
Regardless of imploding after inking a big deal, and nonetheless not being handled as a real starter, likelihood is that was a blip within the radar, versus an ongoing concern, as Thompson’s stats try. And with Washington an up and coming workforce, he ought to be capable of proceed to thrive. However in contrast to Gustavsson, I would anticipate extra of the identical, slightly than some enchancment, making his 2024-25 JUST RIGHT and incomes him a score of 5.5, or proper down the center.
Adin Hill (50 GP, 32 W, 4 SO, 2.47 GAA, 906 SV%)
Though he made his first appearances within the NHL in 2017-18 at age 21, it took Hill till this previous season to look in half his workforce’s video games, as for quite a few seasons he was a strong performer however one who couldn’t persuade his workforce to show to him as a starter, such that by the point 2021-22 concluded, all it took for Vegas to snag him in commerce was a fourth spherical choose. However Hill appeared in 27 contests in 2022-23, then 35 in 2023-24, ensuing – as famous above – in him being the anointed starter for the 2024-25 season. Can Hill enhance, or no less than keep his primarily sturdy stats in 2025-26? I would not rely on it, as indicators level to him doing worse.
Hill had by far his worst quarter in Q1, giving up 4+ objectives in six of his first ten video games, after which thereafter solely doing so six extra occasions in his subsequent 40 appearances. Additionally, his GAA of two.47 was sturdy, rating him fifth greatest among the many 22 goalies with 50+ appearances. But his SV% of .906 put him tied for ninth with two different goalies. Of these with a better SV% than him, the bottom High quality Begin Proportion was 59.3%, whereas Hill’s was 52.0%, which ranked him eighth worst amongst those self same 22 goalies. How is that this potential? It is largely because of Vegas dealing with solely 26.0 SOG per recreation, which was fourth lowest of all NHL groups. It meant Hill did not surrender many objectives, however his SV% and QS% had been worse than his GAA. That’s of concern, since SV% and QS% are way more dependable indicators of a goalie’s means to proceed to succeed, since in contrast to GAA they don’t seem to be as depending on pictures confronted.
Hill performed higher at house so far as GAA and SV%, however someway worse in QS%. This isn’t superb, as he seemingly received at house regardless of poorer stats total. On a considerably optimistic word, he had just one “Actually Unhealthy Week”, which means he was not often dangerous for a sustained time period, even factoring in his terrible begin to the season. Additionally, his .913 even power SV% represented a pleasant uptick from his total SV%. He additionally got here up clutch, with a 3rd interval SV% of .917, though in video games that went to OT his SV% was solely in the course of the pack.
Extra proof that Hill benefitted from the workforce in entrance of him is that his anticipated objectives in opposition to, amongst all conditions, ranked fifth greatest among the many 22 goalies who performed 50+ video games. Vegas ought to nonetheless be a powerful workforce in 2025-26; nevertheless, with talks of Alex Pietrangelo occurring long run IR, he could possibly be put into much less favorable conditions, which is of concern in view of his numbers having been benefited fairly a bit by the workforce in entrance of him.
Hill didn’t do himself any favors within the shootout, incomes zero shootout wins and saving barely half the shootout pictures he confronted. However he appeared in solely three shootouts, so this may not end in a significant enhance in wins if he normalizes.
Of most concern relating to Hill although is likely to be his SV% on totally different days relaxation, as he was at .886 with someday relaxation and .906 at two days. His SV% jumped to .922 with three days relaxation, was .909 with 4 or extra days relaxation, and .958 when he began back-to-backs. On condition that his worst SV% numbers coincided with the durations of time most probably to happen between when a #1 goalie would begin, that’s worrisome. Furthermore, though he had 14 video games with a SV% above .950, he had ten with a SV% under .850. This reinforces that he may not be capable of thrive if (when?) he’s known as upon to face extra pictures.
Once we peel again the onion on Hill, we see a goalie who righted his ship fairly nicely after a really shaky begin to the season. However he is also somebody who didn’t face numerous rubber as a result of workforce in entrance of him, which is one thing way more more likely to not recur than to proceed. Additionally, his save share was its worst on one or two days relaxation, which might coincide with the best frequency of cases when a real #1 could be known as upon to be the starter. The takeaway from Hill’s 2024-25 is that he was TOO HOT, and he will get a score of 8.25, as he needs to be due for his numbers, together with profitable share, to take successful.
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Questions for Mailbag
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