The Winnipeg Jets have locked up considered one of their prime 6 forwards long-term, signing Gabriel Vilardi to a six-year extension with a $7.5 million AAV. Vilardi was two seasons away from changing into a UFA.
Vilardi had a profession season in 2024-25, ending with 27 targets and 61 factors in 71 video games. His numbers have been helped by the truth that he was on the Jets’ prime line with Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor in addition to the highest energy play, the place his 12 power-play factors led the Jets. A licensed Band-Support Boy, Vilardi additionally performed 70 video games for the primary time in six NHL seasons. Vilardi’s taking pictures share was additionally greater than 20% for the primary time in his profession, though he’s a high-accuracy shooter anyway with a near-19% success fee in his earlier two seasons.
I’ve Vilardi ranked #90 on the High 100 Roto Rankings, which have been lately up to date for July.
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In case you missed it on Thursday, the Leafs acquired Dakota Joshua from the Canucks for a fourth-round decide. Joshua has held some bangers league worth prior to now; specifically, the 2023-24 season the place he scored 18 targets and 32 factors and was credited for 244 hits. Joshua’s numbers regressed to simply seven targets and 14 factors in 57 video games final season, but it surely must be famous that Joshua missed the primary month of the season resulting from testicular most cancers and likewise handled a leg damage.
2025-26 must be a greater season for Joshua, though getting to twenty targets once more would possibly show to be tough. Not solely is Joshua more likely to play within the Leafs’ backside 6, however he has by no means taken 100 photographs in a season. His 18-goal efficiency was fueled by a 21.4 SH%, though he is named a selective shooter. To make room for Joshua, the Leafs might be buying and selling one other ahead. Nicholas Robertson has been rumored to be on the commerce block for some time, and he’s presently scheduled to go to arbitration.
In the meantime, the Canucks made this commerce to clear cap house, as Joshua has a $3.25 million cap hit. The Canucks’ greatest want is presently on the heart place, and they’re believed to be procuring round for one. To provide you an concept, the oft-injured Filip Chytil is presently their most suitable choice at 2C.
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The Geese have signed defenseman Drew Helleson to a two-year contract with a cap hit of $1.1 million. The 24-year-old Helleson performed 56 video games in his first full season with the Geese in 2024-25, registering 13 factors. He seems to be an everyday choice on the third pair, though he doesn’t provide the scoring upside of the younger trio of Jackson LaCombe, Pavel Mintyukov, and Olen Zellweger.
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Right this moment I am utilizing Frozen Instruments to lookup gamers who would possibly expertise taking pictures share regression in 2025-26. The standards are gamers which have performed at the least 40 video games final season with a a lot greater taking pictures share than earlier seasons. All of those gamers may have excessive taking pictures share, however these aren’t all of the taking pictures share leaders from final season. For instance, Brayden Level was second amongst these gamers with a 22.8 SH% whereas scoring 42 targets, however I do not assume he’ll regress a ton subsequent season as a result of he has shot at the least 20% in every of the final three seasons.
Listed below are the gamers I’ve picked out. I have never began a “bust” checklist but for the approaching season, however these gamers are price contemplating for it.
Protas could be probably the most sudden 60+ level participant from 2024-25, and a glance beneath the hood on the superior stats reveals why. It begins with a taking pictures share of 21.4%, which is way and above the vary of 5-9% that he had reached in his earlier three seasons. As well as, his 14.1% 5-on-5 SH% was the second-highest within the league amongst all gamers who performed at the least 40 video games. Throw a 3.2 PTS/60 and a 1041 PDO, that are additionally nicely above profession norms, and you’ve got the recipe for a possible bust this coming season.
One other factor: Protas is a huge on skates at 6-6 and 247 lbs. The impulse could be to draft him in bangers leagues; nonetheless, he has by no means reached 50 hits or 20 PIM in a season in his 4 NHL seasons. Add to that the truth that Protas has averaged fewer than two photographs per recreation in every of these 4 seasons, in addition to logging microscopic quantities of power-play time (2.9% of the Caps’ out there minutes), and you’ve got a participant with far too many purple flags.
When the Sabres acquired McLeod for prospect Matt Savoie final summer time, they have been most likely anticipating a middle who might attain 30 factors and tackle some robust matchups whereas successful faceoffs. McLeod surpassed these expectations, reaching profession highs in targets (20) and assists (33). Regardless that he noticed little or no power-play time with extra shorthanded factors (6) than power-play factors (2), McLeod’s level complete was aided by the truth that he averaged greater than two and a half minutes extra icetime per recreation than he noticed in Edmonton.
Reaching these offensive totals once more will likely be a tall order. McLeod reached 20 targets by benefitting from a 20.6 SH% on solely 97 photographs for your complete season. On prime of that, he registered a 11.9% 5-on-5 SH%, 2.4 PTS/60, and a forty five.5 Sec. Asst%. With each a excessive taking pictures share and a excessive secondary help share, McLeod might see each his objective complete and help complete drop this coming season. Regardless that McLeod is barely 25 years of age, I might be shocked if he’s truly a participant on the rise. His worth has improved in Buffalo, however to not what we noticed in 2024-25.
Barbashev was a frequent linemate of Jack Eichel in 2024-25, however that does not imply he was constant. Barbashev began the season with 10 targets and 25 factors in his first 23 video games, making him seem like a critical breakout candidate scoring at over some extent per recreation. Then after that, Barbashev was held to 26 factors in his final 47 video games, which is a 45-point tempo over 82 video games. He was the traditional in-season promote excessive.
Some superior stats level to potential additional regression from what turned out to be a 51-point season over 70 video games (a close to 60-point tempo over 82 video games). Barbashev’s taking pictures share labored out to be 20.7%, which isn’t that far off contemplating he has had double-digit taking pictures percentages all through his profession. Barbashev merely does not shoot sufficient, as he took 111 photographs in 2024-25 and has a profession excessive of 125 photographs. Barbashev’s 2.6 PTS/60 was additionally above his profession common.
General, Barbashev has greater worth in multicategory leagues than in pure factors leagues due to his hit totals (persistently double digits). Nevertheless, watch out to not overestimate Barbashev, even when he’s again on the Eichel line.
Geekie made an enormous leap ahead in 2024-25, scoring a career-high 33 targets. After being buried down the lineup in each Carolina and Seattle, he has discovered a agency top-6 position with the Bruins. Nevertheless, he managed to attain these 33 targets on simply 151 photographs, taking pictures at a excessive 21.9% accuracy. Usually, Geekie has had a taking pictures share ranging between 10-13% in a season.
Since Boston did not make any main upgrades at ahead throughout the offseason, Geekie ought to have the within monitor on lining up with David Pastrnak and on the highest energy play once more. Nevertheless, I might warning a few doable objective regression, particularly since Pasta is the true sniper on the road. Geekie did improve his shot complete barely from earlier seasons to 2.0 SOG/GP. Though he might be productive in non-shallow fantasy leagues, I’d look elsewhere for gamers who’re on the cusp of a significant breakout.
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