This put up goes to be an extended one, so I’m going to chop proper to the chase. Right now, we’re going to take a look at the High 40 forwards. The highest 16 had been lined in my High 20, which you’ll be able to learn right here. In case you have any questions, feedback, or ideas, please depart them under. Let’s get to it!
1) Nathan MacKinnon
2) Connor McDavid
3) Leon Draisaitl
4) Nikita Kucherov
5) Auston Matthews
6) David Pastrnak
7) Kirill Kaprizov
8) Jack Hughes
9) Mikko Rantanen
10) Brady Tkachuk
11) Jack Eichel
12) Artemi Panarin
13) William Nylander
14) Kyle Connor
15) Mitch Marner
16) Matvei Michkov – Everybody up to now is roofed within the High 20, which is linked within the intro.
Edit: Made a mistake and omitted Hagel, who I initially had #20 total however ended up placing Michkov there, so I crossed him off my checklist and didn’t regulate it. Thanks Dustin for catching this!
17) Brandon Hagel – My first daring prediction for final season was that Hagel would have 90+ factors, and he delivered with precisely 90 factors. Hagel completed because the #4 total participant in PIM leagues final season, partly because of his +33 ranking. Whereas I’ll by no means predict +33 to repeat, Hagel is likely one of the greatest even energy gamers within the league. Moreover, he did have solely 18 STP final season, and solely 11 PPP (all assists) Are they actually going to play Bjorkstrand or Cirelli in that PP1 spot? I’ve a tough time seeing that. I believe what regression we get at even energy, Hagel can come near erasing with some higher PP work. I imply, he can’t get 0 PPG once more, proper? It’s most likely a bit too excessive, however I’ve all the time been a fan of Hagel and there’s no purpose to see his ice time dropping. Cooper likes to push his prime six as a result of they don’t have the depth anymore.
18) Matt Boldy – Boldy is the kind of participant that I like to have on my staff. He checks each field and has room to develop. He performed each recreation final season, totaling 27+46 and virtually 3.5 pictures per recreation. Boldy had over 20 PPP for the third straight 12 months, regardless of Kaprizov lacking half of the season, which significantly harm their PP. He’s solely 24 years previous, giving him the prospect for pure enchancment. His taking pictures proportion was a tad decrease than his norm final season, which makes it doubtless he will get again over 30 targets. He’s additionally a strong plus in PIM in case your league has them as a class. Boldy’s extraordinarily protected throughout the board with loads of upside.
19) Clayton Keller – The primary 12 months in Utah was nice for Keller, totaling 30+60 for a profession excessive 90 factors. A variety of that got here from a whopping 37 PPP, third most within the league. It’s going to be fairly exhausting to repeat that, regardless that there’s loads of expertise on the Utah roster. Keller is one other case of a decrease taking pictures proportion than anticipated, so realistically, we’re taking a look at about 33+55 with elite PPP, even when it’s not prime of the league good. He does should be dropped a bit in hits leagues although.
20) Filip Forsberg – I see Forsberg similar to Nashville as an entire: they aren’t nearly as good as two seasons in the past, and never as dangerous as final season. The distinction is Forsberg’s “dangerous” was 31+45 with about 3.5 pictures per recreation. He was a uncommon brilliant spot on the Preds final season, and the staff bouncing again round him can solely assist his trigger. Moreover, it was the second straight season that Forsberg performed all 82 video games, which was once an issue. The extra I checked out it, is there actually that a lot distinction between him and Connor? Connor is a bit safer and extra prone to prime 40 targets, however we’ve seen Forsberg do it twice earlier than, so his ceiling is that of a prime 20 participant, regardless that he’ll find yourself within the thirtieth vary after you add in defensemen and a few goalies.
21) Tage Thompson – Regardless of the Buffalo energy play being horrific once more, Thompson nonetheless bounced again in an enormous method, scoring 44 targets in 76 video games. Sure, that was partially aided by a excessive taking pictures proportion, however Thompson is the form of participant the place 15% is regular, so 18 isn’t out of the query. What’s a bit worrisome is that Thompson had solely 28 assists. Is that the extent we’re taking a look at going ahead, or does he discover a center floor from his profession excessive of 47? I are inclined to assume the latter, particularly if the facility play can do something (Doan’s arrival may very well be a sneaky assist in entrance). It’s additionally anecdotal, however Thompson actually took off final season after he was snubbed from 4 Nations, and with how he performed on the World Championships this summer time, I count on him to actually go for an Olympics spot. He’s additionally a plus in hits and PIM. On the finish of the day, how low are you able to drop somebody who has an over/below objective line of 38.5 and led the league in even energy targets final 12 months?
22) Jake Guentzel – I had Guentzel ranked as a prime 10 participant final season, anticipating a step ahead from his Pitt days due to the Tampa Bay energy play. As a substitute, it was extra of the identical, however that’s nonetheless an elite participant. Guentzel completed with precisely a degree per recreation, 41+39 in 80 video games. That got here with elite PPP and a median shot fee for a ahead. He’s as protected as they arrive, and if you need protected, you may put him after Marner forward of Michkov.
23) Brayden Level – Despite the fact that they play totally different positions and are on the identical staff, Level and Guentzel’s stat traces are shockingly related. Level has a bit extra objective upside, regardless that he retains defying logic and taking pictures over 20%. I solely have Guentzel larger as a result of the shot fee dropped fairly a bit for Level to barely under Guentzel’s. I don’t actually see any totally different between these two and the following participant…
24) Sam Reinhart – We knew Reinhart wasn’t going to repeat 57 targets, however 39 in 79 video games was effectively inside expectation. He’s good for a degree per recreation and a pair of.5 pictures per recreation and elite PPP. Sound acquainted? You would see the Tkachuk absence in a pair methods. One, he’s the one organising Reinhart within the slot on the facility play. On the opposite, Reinhart may shoot a bit extra normally, and his minutes may have a small uptick within the first couple months. Reinhart has additionally stayed wholesome all through his total profession and matches proper into this group of protected gamers seamlessly.
25) Sidney Crosby – It feels dumb to have Crosby this low coming off one other 90 level season. The issue is that Pittsburgh is the one staff within the East that isn’t actually attempting to win this season, because the staff round Crosby continues to worsen. In case your league has plus-minus, which a number of them do, I don’t actually see how he avoids an enormous damaging. His shot fee additionally dropped final season to above common as an alternative of elite. Perhaps issues change if Pitt is absolutely dreadful, however I’m additionally not shopping for the prospect of a commerce on the deadline this season, presumably to Colorado or Montreal in the event that they proceed to ascend. If he decides to go that route, then I believe it’s subsequent summer time, particularly with the Olympics this season. Regardless, from a pure factors standpoint, Crosby ought to lengthen his file of consecutive seasons over a degree per recreation.
26) Macklin Celebrini – Just like Crosby, it’s exhausting to examine Celebrini avoiding a foul plus-minus, even because the Sharks proceed to enhance. That stated, I couldn’t have been extra impressed by Celebrini’s rookie season. There have been loads of video games the place he was the perfect participant on the ice as an 18 12 months previous. His shot fee, which was a slight concern for me going into the season, was already elite as a rookie. Celebrini had a 50% Corsi which is insane as a rookie, and his goalies had an 86.3 save proportion with him on the ice. I’m unsure I’ve ever seen a quantity that low for a full season. There’s an actual probability that Celebrini is so good that it doesn’t matter in regards to the goalies and his plus-minus finally ends up positive. There’s a lot younger expertise round him too that it wouldn’t shock me if that is the final season you’re capable of draft Celebrini outdoors of the High 20 for greater than a decade, and presumably the High 10.
27) Martin Necas – Necas is likely one of the gamers that I’m having probably the most issue rating. On one hand, he was over a degree per recreation final season and is locked into a significant position on MacKinnon’s wing and the Colorado energy play. There’s no denying Necas has prime 20 total upside and probably prime 10. Alternatively, his contract scenario is a multitude. Usually, I wouldn’t actually care, however we’ve already seen Colorado ship out Rantanen near turning into a UFA, and so they have nowhere close to that attachment to Necas. He definitely might be in a worse spot than Colorado irrespective of the place he’d be traded. If he indicators a contract earlier than the season, I’m undoubtedly shifting Necas up, so it’s protected to say I’m extra bullish than not on Necas.
28) Alex Ovechkin – It’s insane that Ovechkin set the targets file final season regardless of the time missed, scoring 44 targets in 65 video games whereas having his greatest season in three years. Whereas he’s not main the league in pictures anymore, his shot fee remains to be elite. Loyal Razzballers know I choose to focus on targets and pictures earlier on than assists as a result of it’s simpler to get gamers which have a number of assists however different flaws later, however it’s exhausting to stumble into large targets later. Due to this fact, how low can I actually drop the perfect objective scorer and shot quantity man in fantasy hockey historical past? Simply don’t pair him with another person that’s gentle in assists.
29) Adrian Kempe – Kempe had 35 targets for the third time within the final 4 seasons, whereas persevering with to dominate at even energy with round three pictures per recreation. He’s additionally nice in each hits and PIM. The PPP are slightly gentle and are an enormous purpose why he’s by no means topped a degree per recreation, however Kempe feels extremely protected to remain within the 35+40 vary with some upside if the Los Angeles energy play upticks a bit.
30) Jason Robertson – Three straight seasons Robertson has performed each recreation and completed with at the very least 80 factors. It’s protected to say that the 106 level season is an outlier at this level, however the ground is extraordinarily excessive. He was higher at even energy final season, so an influence play bounce again would get him again in the direction of 90 factors. My important drawback with Robertson now’s his shot fee. He has dropped actually 102 pictures from final season to his monstrous 2022-23 season. Now, his shot fee is merely common. If it goes effectively, Robertson might be proper into the Guentzel, Level and Reinhart vary, however there’s slightly extra uncertainty.
31) Cole Caufield – Caufield set a profession excessive final season with 37 targets, which comes as no shock given his taking pictures capability. The staff round him is beginning to enhance, which solely helps when it comes to groups specializing in shutting down Caufield’s line. Like Robertson, Caufield’s shot fee dropped considerably, however Caufield remains to be above common in that regard. He additionally has respectable hit totals regardless of what you’d assume. The arrival of Hutson ought to assist the Canadiens offensively, and a full season of Hutson on PP1 and Demidov’s everlasting arrival ought to increase the PP. I need Caufield in every single place this 12 months, so I could find yourself shifting him up. I’d guess on him reaching 40 targets for the primary time.
32) Sebastian Aho – Boring, however protected. That’s the story with Aho, who dipped all the way down to 74 factors in 79 video games. It will be surprising if Aho isn’t between 75-90 factors, assuming he stays wholesome. It’s merely good throughout the board, and I’m hoping it’s nearer to the 90 level finish with the arrival of Ehlers, who has all the time dominated at even energy. The one factor that hurts is that Aho doesn’t get the large PP minutes some guys do on different groups.
33) Jesper Bratt – An unique Razzball favourite (which means one among mine), Bratt was over a degree per recreation once more with 21+67. What’s extra spectacular about that’s that he did that with out Hischier or Hughes obtainable for lots of the season. The shot fee did drop fairly a bit, which is a priority, however I believe he’s fairly prone to bounce again in the direction of the three per recreation vary. This admittedly may very well be too low, however I don’t love that he’s shifting extra in the direction of an help man as an alternative of a greater steadiness. Alternatively, 67 assists was fifth in your entire league.
34) Mark Scheifele – I’m a bit anxious about Scheifele this season, so I may see myself dropping him a bit decrease. Sure, he was wonderful final season, however he did shoot virtually 22%. Even for him, that’s a tad excessive. His PP time did dip a bit regardless of higher manufacturing there. On the finish of the day, he’s been round a degree per recreation for a decade, so it’s exhausting to drop him decrease than this. Nonetheless, say he does regress in targets and drops all the way down to 29 targets as an alternative of 39 (he had 25 two seasons in the past). Are we actually completely happy spending a prime 50-60 decide on 75 factors with a under common shot fee? He was a prime 15 ahead final season so we all know the upside, however he additionally has a bit extra draw back than others on this vary.
35) J.T. Miller – In banger leagues, that is clearly method too low. Hell, you would make the case that Miller needs to be within the prime 20 forwards. Miller was over a degree per recreation as soon as he was traded to the Rangers, and he has a 99 and 103 level season prior to now. The Rangers energy play is all the time unbelievable as effectively. The shot fee is my actual concern as Miller was under two per recreation whereas on the Rangers and total on the season. Irrespective of who his linemates are, they’re all definitely to be gunners, between Lafreniere, Panarin, and Zibanejad (even Cuylle if he bumps up), so I don’t actually see a bounce again there. Even with that shot fee, Miller is so good at all the pieces else that he ought to match seamlessly into each fantasy staff on this vary of the draft.
36) Nick Suzuki – Shockingly just like Scheifele, Suzuki broke out with 89 factors regardless of his shot fee being under common. I really feel like 89 is a bit excessive for him, however I do count on Suzuki to be proper round a degree per recreation once more. As talked about with Caufield, there may very well be a PP increase for Montreal this season too. Add in that Suzuki hasn’t missed a recreation in his six 12 months profession, and this may very well be a bit low for him. As talked about repeatedly, I’m simply pre-disposed to reducing guys with poor shot charges.
37) Tim Stutzle – Stutzle’s shot fee continued to drop to below two per recreation, which is an enormous hit in comparison with the way in which he was trending. There’s nonetheless an opportunity that all of it clicks for Stutzle and he will get again to being a 90 level participant, however I don’t actually like the way in which the Ottawa ahead group is rounding out round him and Tkachuk. Stutzle was the thirtieth total ahead final season so it’s exhausting to have him decrease than this, however barring an enormous turnaround in his shot fee, it’s exhausting to see Stutzle reaching 30 targets, and that retains him down right here.
38) Nikolaj Ehlers – I’ve all the time been an enormous Ehlers fan and now the possession driver goes to the perfect possession staff within the league. He ought to slide onto the wing subsequent to Aho and Jarvis, which has the prospect to be an elite line. As all the time, the query is how a lot energy play time is Ehlers going to get? If he stays wholesome, I absolutely count on a profession excessive in factors and I believe the shot fee bounces again in the direction of three pictures per recreation. It needs to be a superb line throughout the board outdoors of hits.
39) Dylan Guenther – Guenther’s 21 12 months previous season went in response to plan, scoring 27+33 in 70 video games. A variety of that was pushed by the facility play, which stays intact going into this 12 months. Peterka’s arrival additionally rounds out the highest six fairly properly from an offensive standpoint. There’s additionally room for some extra ice time to spice up the stats. On the finish of the day, I’m anticipating a small uptick throughout the board which needs to be sufficient to get Guenther into this vary.
40) Robert Thomas – Thomas reaching two pictures per recreation makes him a transparent prime 75 participant now. At this level in his profession, Thomas is a lock for being over a degree per recreation, virtually definitely with 60+ assists. I typically don’t love that participant sort for fantasy, however in some unspecified time in the future, somebody with a practical probability for 90+ factors needs to be ranked on this vary. The end to final season was so robust that I wouldn’t be shocked if Thomas even finally ends up pushing in the direction of 100 factors.
41) Aleksander Barkov – I’m form of out on Barkov this season, which sounds actually dumb. He was simply over a degree per recreation with 71 factors in 67 video games, making it the fifth straight 12 months over a degree per recreation. The issue is that his shot fee has plummeted down to only over two per recreation, and he’s constantly lacking time now. He missed 15 video games final 12 months, which is the third 12 months out of 4 that he’s missed 14-15 video games. The Panthers additionally didn’t dominate at even energy when Barkov was on the market like we’re accustomed to. With how effectively the third line performed as soon as they acquired Marchand, how a lot are they going to push the highest line minutes smart? Perhaps I’ll get burned as a result of Barkov is that good, however I’m trying elsewhere this 12 months.
