By Harron Lee, Johnny Perkins, Callan Fang, Simon Karpinski, Beckett Yi, Ryan Mooney,
Jaedon Ballou
For baseball followers, October all the time feels bigger than life. The postseason arrives,
confidence takes over, predictions fly round, and everybody thinks they’ll see the ending earlier than
the primary pitch. So earlier than Recreation 1 of the 2025 World Collection between the Dodgers and Blue Jays,
we requested a enjoyable however severe query. Can on a regular basis instinct, even amongst analytically educated
followers, beat the percentages of Vegas?
To search out out, we surveyed 97 folks round Harvard Sq., together with undergraduates,
HSAC members, school, and locals. Every participant accomplished an interview about predictions,
confidence, emotional preferences, and reactions to betting odds. What we discovered revealed how
folks take into consideration baseball when the stakes really feel excessive.
Under are the seven greatest behavioral tales that emerged throughout the seven-game sequence.
1. Confidence With out Accuracy: The Calibration Drawback
The primary end result was unattainable to overlook. Everybody was too assured. Throughout all teams,
common confidence sat within the mid-60s, whereas precise accuracy by no means broke 33%.
Most respondents predicted a Dodgers win in Recreation 1, however the Blue Jays dominated and
caught almost everybody off guard. To measure the mismatch between predictions and outcomes,
we used the Brier Rating, which compares a acknowledged likelihood to the true end result. Decrease scores
point out higher calibration. Increased scores point out misplaced confidence.
The shock was the place the most effective and worst calibration got here from. The group with the
strongest analytics background scored the worst. Vacationers and locals carried out the most effective.
Confidence rose with self-reported baseball information, however accuracy didn’t. Throughout the board,
perception in a single’s predictive talent persistently outpaced fact.
2. Anchoring: Who Truly Listens to Vegas
As soon as we confirmed members the FanDuel line giving the Dodgers a 61.1% likelihood to
win Recreation 1, the gang break up immediately. The distinction was not fandom or age, however fairly
information.
The visible makes the sample clear. Individuals within the low-knowledge tier up to date on the
highest charge (27.7%), medium-knowledge respondents up to date much less (16.7%), and
high-knowledge respondents not often up to date (7.7%). This matched what we noticed all through the
survey. Individuals who felt unsure had been probably the most open to skilled data. Individuals assured in
their baseball experience had been the least prepared to maneuver, even when professionals supplied the
odds.
- “Sure, I’d replace,” respondents averaged 37.95% confidence
- “No” respondents had a median confidence of 60%
- All seven respondents who claimed 100% confidence refused to replace their responses
We additionally discovered that those that up to date had been 16.3 share factors extra correct on
Recreation 1, even with a small pattern. Humility helped. Certainty harm. Vegas rewarded those that
had been prepared to hear.
3. The Recreation 1 Delusion: Momentum Bias Meets Wishful Pondering
We requested members a easy query. Would the winner of Recreation 1 go on to win the
World Collection? Greater than half (54.6%) mentioned sure. Then the Blue Jays received Recreation 1, and the
Dodgers went on to win the sequence, proving the idea mistaken instantly.
This concept was prevalent amongst lower-knowledge followers and amongst Blue Jays supporters.
42.6% of lower-knowledge respondents believed it. Amongst Blue Jays followers, the quantity climbed
to 65.2%, making them 1.4× extra doubtless than Dodgers followers to assume Recreation 1 determined all the pieces.
Momentum is a simple story to imagine, particularly if you need the underdog to drag off
one thing large. However the precise sequence confirmed how rapidly that story can crumble.
4. Fandom vs Rationality: When the Coronary heart Makes the Choose
Crew loyalty formed predictions in highly effective methods. Dodgers followers selected their very own workforce
94.1% of the time. Blue Jays followers selected theirs 43.5% of the time.
Confidence deepened the divide. Dodgers followers who picked in opposition to their workforce had virtually
no confidence. Blue Jays followers who determined in opposition to their workforce turned extra assured. Emotion
formed each the selection and the energy of individuals’s beliefs.
Motivations instructed the identical story. Amongst individuals who picked the Blue Jays, 87% additionally
wished them to win. Amongst those that selected the Dodgers, solely 64.9% wished the Dodgers to
win. Underdog picks had been typically pushed by want, fairly than likelihood.
5. Contradiction and Framing: When Beliefs Don’t Line Up
Some respondents gave solutions that didn’t match. They picked the Blue Jays to win
Recreation 1, but in addition mentioned they’d be extra stunned if the Blue Jays received. Their prediction
mirrored hope. Their shock score revealed what they really believed. These contradictions
additionally confirmed up in confidence. Respondents whose solutions didn’t align had been noticeably much less
assured. Contradictors averaged 56.1% confidence, in comparison with 67.8% for non-contradictors
and an general common of 66%. The visible captures this hole clearly.
This confidence distinction means that contradictions weren’t random errors. They
signaled an underlying pressure. Individuals who made emotional predictions however intellectually
doubted them expressed that uncertainty by their confidence even earlier than being requested about
shock.
Framing sharpened the image. We requested: “What would shock you extra: Blue Jays
profitable or Dodgers dropping?” The general break up was virtually good. Half selected one. Half selected the
different.
As soon as we broke responses down by group, the break up turned much more revealing.
Undergraduates had been almost even, with 45.8% selecting “Dodgers dropping.” School confirmed an
virtually an identical steadiness at 44.4%. Locals leaned extra towards the favourite’s failure, with 55.6%
selecting “Dodgers dropping.” HSAC members stood out most clearly. A placing 69.2% mentioned
“Dodgers dropping” could be extra stunning, the strongest choice amongst all teams. This
sample means that followers with better baseball familiarity had been extra more likely to interpret the identical
occasion as the favourite underperforming fairly than the underdog overachieving.
These framing patterns exhibit how much less educated followers are likely to give attention to the
underdog’s achievement, whereas extra educated followers give attention to the favourite’s failure. The
occasion didn’t change, however the psychological reference level did. The distinction turned sharpest when
predictions had been in comparison with shock rankings. Many assured Blue Jays predictors nonetheless admitted
{that a} Blue Jays win would shock them.
6. Occasion Optimism: Residence Runs, Stroll-Offs, and Spotlight Bias
When respondents imagined how the sport may unfold, they tended to give attention to
spotlight moments.
Residence Runs
Contributors predicted a house run 37% of the time, despite the fact that the true chance was
nearer to 45%. Residence runs really feel uncommon and particular, despite the fact that they occur typically. Pleasure
outweighed frequency.
Stroll Offs
Optimism grew even stronger for walk-offs. Respondents predicted a 37.1% likelihood of a
walk-off in Recreation 1 regardless of the true likelihood being round 15%. When requested in regards to the full
sequence, 82.5% predicted at the least one walk-off.
Data gaps performed a job. Many respondents, together with a number of school and
undergraduates, weren’t absolutely certain what a walk-off was. Much less skilled followers leaned towards
predicting residence runs, whereas extra educated followers gravitated towards the dramatic enchantment of a
walk-off.
Fandom and Drama
A complementary chart revealed one other layer. Blue Jays followers leaned towards predicting a
walk-off, whereas Dodgers followers favored a house run. Stroll-offs sign late-game chaos. Residence runs
really feel like pure firepower. The break up highlights how in another way followers think about drama.
7. What Data Actually Measures: The Position of Recall
We additionally included an goal measure of baseball information to enhance the
self-reported scores. Contributors had been requested to call as many baseball gamers as they may.
Their solutions had been scored utilizing the identical ten-point information scale used within the survey, which
mixed familiarity with groups, guidelines, analytics ideas, and participant recognition. Naming
energetic MLB gamers counted strongly towards this scale as a result of it demonstrated present
consciousness fairly than common cultural familiarity. For instance, Babe Ruth was by far probably the most ceaselessly named participant, but he was typically talked about by respondents who demonstrated restricted engagement with trendy baseball.
The variations between teams had been clear. Respondents who named energetic gamers
averaged 6.0 on the information scale. Those that named solely historic or fictional gamers
averaged 2.2. Those that named nobody averaged 1.5. The “identify a participant” process thus functioned as a
fast actuality examine on the self-reported scores and proved to be one of many strongest predictors of
precise baseball understanding.
These variations mapped straight onto prediction habits. Individuals who struggled to
identify gamers had been extra more likely to replace primarily based on the Vegas line and confirmed much less homer bias.
Their predictions had been extra versatile as a result of their priors had been weaker. In distinction, respondents
who named a number of energetic gamers typically wished the Blue Jays to win, but nonetheless predicted the
Dodgers. Data created a stronger id with the underdog but in addition a stronger realism
about what was more likely to occur.
Conclusion
Throughout each a part of our examine, one sample dominated. Emotion beat likelihood.
Respondents picked the mistaken Recreation 1 winner with excessive confidence, imagined unlikely dramatic
moments, leaned on momentum myths, and let fandom form what felt stunning. Intestine intuition
typically spoke louder than knowledge.
There have been brilliant spots. Individuals who up to date after seeing the percentages carried out higher.
Educated followers understood {that a} Blue Jays win wouldn’t have been stunning. Even
contradictory respondents revealed clearer expectations when requested what would shock them.
The general image was clear. The general public acquired the sequence winner proper however missed Recreation 1,
and confidence not often aligned with accuracy. Fandom blurred judgment. Framing shifted
notion. Many ignored the Vegas line completely.
So did Harvard beat Vegas? No. However the level was by no means simply to win a prediction contest.
The actual worth was understanding how folks assume when the second feels large. Baseball
predictions sit on the crossroads of logic and emotion, the place tales compete with statistics and
confidence typically outrun actuality.
Studying that could be value greater than getting a single recreation proper.
