Welcome again to Discussion board Buzz, the place I peruse the DobberHockey Boards and weigh in on energetic, closely debated, or in any other case related latest threads, reminding people simply how nice a useful resource the Boards are. Practically something is perhaps coated right here, aside from trades and signings, which normally get their very own separate write-ups on the fundamental web site and are additionally usually coated within the subsequent day’s Ramblings, or questions which might be particular to wage cap points, which is the area of the weekly Capped column. To entry the precise discussion board thread on which a query relies, click on on the “Matter” for that query.
As is now turning into custom, I will begin the column with a nod to the sadly now dormant “Who am I?” thread within the Boards the place somebody considered a real-life hockey participant or persona, who might be from the previous or current, male or feminine, within the NHL or not, they usually give clues to assist individuals guess who it’s. You get to enter one guess per clue, and when you guess accurately you consider the subsequent participant, so it simply retains going indefinitely. To your enjoyment, here’s a “Who am I?” pattern. See what number of clues it takes so that you can guess who I’m.
CLUE #1 – I am a retired NHL defenseman
CLUE #2 – I performed within the WHL; and regardless of not being an offensive drive, I used to be a first-round decide
CLUE #3 – I had 120+ PIM in two of my three WHL seasons, however by no means 100+ PIM in a single season of my NHL profession
CLUE #4 – I debuted within the NHL as a teen
CLUE #5 – I did not morph right into a scorer within the NHL, not solely by no means ending a season with even level per each different recreation numbers, however solely 3 times managing 20+ factors in a season
CLUE #6 – At one time I used to be the all-time chief in video games performed by a defenseman for the group that drafted me, however somebody since surpassed me
CLUE #7 – I helped lead my first group to the Stanley Cup finals, however we misplaced
CLUE #8 –I did finally win a Stanley Cup as a participant on one other group
CLUE #9 – I performed over 1000 NHL video games, hitting the mark in the identical season as successful the Stanley Cup
CLUE #10 – I used to be drafted within the Nineteen Nineties
CLUE #11 – Though not born in Canada, I represented that nation internationally on a number of events, together with as soon as within the Olympics
CLUE #12 – The groups I performed for, so as, have been Calgary, Buffalo, and LA
CLUE #13 – I used to be born in Brazil
CLUE #14 – My initials are R.R.
So, who am I? Hopefully you figured it out. Test the tip of the column to substantiate, or, if not, to search out out who I’m. Now onto usually scheduled Discussion board Buzz programming.
Matter #1 – In H2H, 14 group, 19-man roster, restricted keeper (draft spherical issues) with classes of G / A / P / PPP / PIM / FW / BS // W / SV / GAA, a group is seeking to improve its goalies previous to their league’s playoff. How ought to these netminders be ranked for the remainder of 2025-26: Sergei Bobrovsky, Darcy Kuemper, Jet Greaves, Linus Ullmark, Jacob Markstrom?
Let’s begin with Ullmark. After being a part of a historic Bruins group in 2022-23, issues have gone downhill, together with his GAA rising, and SV% and QS% lowering, in two straight seasons, and on tempo to every achieve this once more. Even worse – he was acquired by Ottawa to be a real #1; but regardless of being paid $8.3M per season, Ullmark has but to play in 50+ video games even as soon as.
I notice this season has concerned off-ice components for Ullmark, so maybe these made a foul state of affairs worse. However this query requested about the remainder of 2025-26; and from what I’ve seen to date, I’ve zero religion in Ullmark. The one query is how far under the highest he’ll rank.
Kuemper had a stable Q1, however has seen his GAA rise and SV% fall in every subsequent quarter. Anton Forsberg had regarded robust of late, and even began two of three video games going into the break, however he was not stable in them, so he doubtless misplaced his probability to stake a declare to extra begins. Thus, I believe it might take a serious implosion by Kuemper, plus a much more sustained stretch of robust play by Forsberg, for Forsberg to be even a 1B reasonably than a pure back-up.
Greaves had a stretch the place he began 14 of 15 video games, together with one back-to-back, which is nearly exceptional these days, and this all whereas Elvis Merzlikins was wholesome. However then the group modified coaches, and Rick Bowness appears inclined to lean on Elvis Merzlikins extra, though some really feel that could possibly be to showcase the Latvian in hopes of facilitating a commerce. And for certain Greaves has the higher stats of the pair, with above a 60% high quality begin price and just one begin in six being a very unhealthy begin. He is the longer term, and that future is perhaps now if Elvis is dealt.
As for Bobrovsky, the quick offseasons as a result of sustained success of the Panthers, coupled together with his age, look to be lastly catching as much as him, because it took him till solely recreation 38 to have as many Actually Unhealthy Begins as he did in 54 video games in 2024-25 plus his QS% is simply 50%. The return of Matthew Tkachuk hasn’t helped, as Bob’s Q3 numbers are markedly worse than these he had within the first half. It looks like the Panthers have been making an attempt to relaxation Bob extra in hopes that can result in righting his ship. But with Florida needing to enhance simply to make the playoffs, they doubtless will not have the luxurious to maintain doing so; thus, he ought to play typically. However how properly is the query.
Markstrom’s season has been a catastrophe; nevertheless, the silver lining is he is gone from terrible in Q1, to fairly awful in Q2, to merely subpar in Q3. That could be a optimistic pattern at the least, as is the actual fact he is began eight of the final 12 video games, one thing which hadn’t occurred since he returned from damage. The Devils know they’ve a succesful second goalie in Jake Allen, however Allen hasn’t performed even a minute within the postseason since 2019-20, so my guess is the Devils attempt to have Markstrom play his method again into kind.
On condition that two of the three goalie classes are volume-based, variety of begins will matter. As such, I “like” Kuemper most, adopted by Markstrom, then Bob, Greaves, and Ullmark. However the asterisk is that if Merzlikins is traded, Greaves can be proper there on the high.
Matter #2 – In a 12 group league, hold–8, weekly H2H league with 55 strikes allowed for the common season and an extra 8 for the playoffs, and rosters of 2C, 2LW, 2RW, 2G, 4D, plus 5 Bench and 4IR, and classes of G, A, PPP, +/-, SOG, PIM, GWG, Hits & W, SV%, GAA, a GM has the next on their roster:
C – Jack Hughes (C/LW), Nathan Mackinnon (C), Boone Jenner (C/LW)
LW – Tim Stutzle (C/LW), Emil Heineman (LW/RW), Lawson Crouse (LW/RW),
RW – Mikko Rantanen (LW/RW), Alex Laferriere (LW/RW), Eeli Tolvanen (LW/RW)
D – Rasmus Dahlin, Cale Makar, Moritz Seider, Ok’Andre Miller, Ivan Provorov, Justin Faulk
G – Dustin Wolf, Lukas Dostal, Devin Cooley
IR – Pierre-Luc Dubois (C/LW), Gabriel Landeskog (LW/RW), Elias Lindholm (C)
They acquired a proposal of Igor Shesterkin for Seider by the first-place group. Ought to they settle for?
So there’s 96 keepers, and over 200 gamers on rosters at a given time with out factoring in IR spots. And three of 11 classes relate to goalies, i.e., 27%; however goalies make up solely 16% of energetic rosters.
What does that imply? Goalies will not be vastly vital, particularly with just one class being tied to quantity. Nonetheless, Shesterkin is a unicorn of kinds in that he has stellar peripherals plus begins sufficient video games to get wins. Nonetheless, New York is all however assured to proceed to be a really unhealthy group for a number of years, which will not do Shesterkin any favors, though for what it is price they have been horrible this season and but he is nonetheless fared properly. Briefly, he is the actual deal, and any provide to amass him must be given robust consideration.
Seider is not any slouch in fact. He is enhancing yr to yr in scoring, whereas contributing fairly properly in a number of multi-cat areas. Nonetheless, he blocks greater than he hits, and blocks don’t rely. It additionally appears, in trying on the group’s roster, that gamers who hit might be readily obtained. And with Seider, there is a threat Axel Sandin-Pellikka ascends to take his PP1 position, which will surely harm his scoring.
In the end, I believe the choice boils right down to what the keepers can be with Seider versus with Igor. Keeper locks are MacKinnon, Makar, Hughes, Dahlin, Rantanen, and Stutzle. That is six, which means seven with Seider or Shesterkin. Wanting on the different choices, If Seider just isn’t traded, then a goalie doubtless ought to be stored, with Wolf being my decide as a consequence of his peripherals. If the commerce is made for Igor, then a second goalie keeper could possibly be overdoing it, though perhaps not, as Shesterkin and Wolf ought to be a pleasant tandem to personal, plus would permit the group to not should give attention to goalies on the draft. Plus, no different skaters scream “should hold” past these six.
Since there are six high tier skater keepers, however then a reasonably precipitous drop off after these, I might be inclined to maintain Seider and certainly one of both Wolf or Dostal (doubtless Wolf). I like that choice higher than buying and selling Seider after which conserving Igor and both a subpar skater or a second goalie. So though the commerce appears truthful, or maybe much more weighted to getting Shesterkin, I might stick to Seider in view of the precise circumstances.
Matter #3 – In a 16 Group, H2H Weekly, Cap ($95.5M) league with classes of G (6 factors for F, 8 for D), A (5 factors for F. 6 for D), +/- (1 level), GWG (2 factors), Shootout Targets (1 level), Shootout GWG (1 level); W (12 factors), GA (-1 level), SA (0.25 level), SHO (8 factors), a GM’s roster is as follows, with salaries denoted:
C (3): Matty Beniers ($7.14M), Anton Lundell ($5M), Nathan MacKinnon ($12.6M)
LW (3): Artemi Panarin ($11.64M), Owen Tippett ($6.2M), Kevin Fiala ($7.88M)
RW (3): JT Miller ($8M), Mackie Samoskevich ($0.78M),Travis Konecny ($8.75M)
D (4): Jackson LaCombe ($0.93M),Josh Morrissey ($6.25M), Artyom Levshunov ($0.98M), Pavel Mintykov ($0.92M)
G (1): Igor Shesterkin ($11.5M)
Bench: Berkley Catton ($0.94M), Gabe Perreault ($0.9M), Konsta Helenius ($0.94M),Nick Robertson ($1.83M), Nazem Kadri ($7M), Simon Nemec ($0.92M)
IR: None
They not too long ago dealt Igor Chernyshov for Berkly Catton. Was it a smart commerce?
The very first thing that stands out to me is the emphasis on objectives amongst skaters. Not solely are objectives price greater than assists on the whole, however there may be added worth for game-winning objectives, shootout objectives, and even game-winning shootout objectives. Clearly the final three are troublesome to draft for; however not inconceivable. Chernyshov was not with the Sharks lengthy sufficient to see in the event that they’d have used him within the shootout, though what we do know is that they’ve gone to a shootout 3 times, with solely Macklin Celebrini being utilized in every occasion. Seattle, however, has seen 5 of their video games be determined by shootout, with three of these being determined in three shooters, and two going to a fourth shooter. However no participant has been a shooter in all 5 situations, and just one in 4 of the 5 shootouts. Thus, there could also be a extra viable path for Catton for use within the shootout.
their numbers previous to the NHL, neither Catton nor Chernyshov has proven indicators of being a sniper. Chernyshov has extra SOG per 60 minutes this season, however each have been solely sparingly used on the PP. Briefly, the emphasis on objectives within the classes wouldn’t seem to favor both participant.
As for what their futures would possibly maintain, Catton is on a group that lacks offensive firepower. That may result in him getting extra favorable deployment, albeit not underneath circumstances which can essentially result in him scoring quite a bit, as Seattle is stingy with ice time on the whole, plus leans on its PP1 lower than almost every other group. As for Chernyshov, in his transient NHL tenure this season he was used at occasions alongside Celebrini, which is about as nice a gig as one can have. But when he fails to earn a spot on the highest line, will he be capable to produce, and even be on PP1? Robust to say with respect to each
Ultimately, though I’ve the next confidence in Catton being an NHL common and getting an opportunity to succeed, his circumstances won’t be perfect given the group for which he performs. As such, I might have doubtless stood pat, not simply because I like the house run potential of Chernyshov, however except I see a commerce as a transparent win, I am not inclined to make it, as refraining permits a probably higher deal to come back, plus avoids vendor’s regret.
Matter #4 – In a factors–solely league, how would the next gamers be ranked: Nick Suzuki, Wyatt Johnston, Lukas Raymond?
Spoiler alert, when you go to the Discussion board thread, you will notice this has been hotly debated. So, for certain I knew I needed to embrace it within the subsequent Discussion board Buzz.
And proper the outset, I will say that every one three are already nice fantasy property, with any fantasy GM being fortunate to personal any of them in any keeper league format. The most important distinction amongst them that’s instantly obvious is age, with Suzuki being 26, whereas Raymond turns 24 subsequent month and Johnston will probably be 23 in Might. However all three are poised to do as properly, and even higher, for a few years to come back. Sure, maybe Suzuki could have an “expiration date” that’s sooner than the opposite two, however it shouldn’t be for fairly some time. So, though age looks like it ought to be an element, I really feel it is truly a pink herring, mattering little to under no circumstances for functions of evaluating them amongst one another.
Wanting first at Suzuki, what are you able to say a couple of participant who has improved his scoring tempo in every season he is been within the NHL? That’s no small feat since he is on yr seven of his profession and he was already at a 60-point tempo in his second season. But he is executed so, and should still have room to additional enhance, even when solely barely, as he’s at 2.1 SOG per recreation, with him having been as excessive as 2.3 in two prior seasons. And though his total TOI appears to have settled round 21:00 per recreation, his PPTOI might rise, as a result of he is already on the market for 3 quarters of his group’s man benefit minutes, and Montreal is twentieth when it comes to PP alternatives, versus Detroit being fifth and Dallas fifteenth. Additionally, Suzuki’s at all times nice SH%, regardless of technically being above his profession price, is a notch under what it was the prior three seasons. And even his secondary help price of 36.2% is under the 44% and 43% from the prior two seasons. His PP IPP is excessive, even for him, so that may imply giving again a couple of factors; nevertheless, within the grand scheme of issues he looks like he has it in him to be a 100-point participant, and I might say he’s now a 90-point flooring participant.
Johnston goes into the Olympic break on a chilly stretch, with solely 9 factors in his final 13 video games, this after 27 factors in 21 second quarter contests. For Q3 his SOG price is definitely larger, and his TOIs are basically unchanged. Apparently, in 2024-25 he had one excellent quarter, however was at or underneath level per recreation manufacturing within the different three. The distinction is his TOIs are method up versus final season, such that larger scoring can be anticipated. With Johnston, it is also a excellent news unhealthy information state of affairs when it comes to the person benefit, because it took him solely till recreation 49 to equal the 25 PPPts he had all of final season. And he stands now at 29 PPPts in 57 video games, with 18 of the PPPts being PPGs. Final season he had a really stable 11 PPG on 56 PPSOG, whereas he has already surpassed that PPSOG whole with 57 for 2025-26. However tallying 18 PPGs in 57 PPSOG just isn’t sustainable, which is a priority since these are the vast majority of his PPPts, and PPPts comprise half his whole factors. Johnston’s secondary help price is just 33.5%, but that’s his norm, so we will not financial institution on a lift from that rising. And though his IPPs are fairly stable, but once more they don’t seem to be at 70% both total or on the PP. With him previous his breakout threshold, and never realistically in a position to obtain a lot better deployment, but nonetheless being barely over some extent per recreation, it makes me marvel if he has it in him to be a 100-point participant down the highway. To me, he is a bankable point-per-game man, with 90+ upside.
Raymond additionally entered the break chilly, inflicting him to dip under point-per-game scoring. Regardless of his stellar 2024-25 output, he isn’t been bestowed with extra total TOI and even PPTOI. His SOG price has held regular although, and his PPPt scoring tempo just isn’t too far under what it was final season. However the actuality is that if a participant fails to common at the least 19:00 per recreation, it’s harder to be even a 90+ level participant. Even 30 seconds makes an obvious distinction, as of the 272 situations of a ahead enjoying 41+ video games whereas scoring at a 1.1 factors per recreation tempo courting again to 2000-01, solely 14 did so regardless of averaging underneath 18:30 per recreation. Upping the TOI common to 19:00 does add one other 23 gamers; nevertheless, we’re nonetheless speaking about simply 13% who managed the feat with out averaging 19:00 TOI. And if we take a look at the 37 skaters who did it whereas averaging underneath 19:00 per recreation, solely seven averaged fewer SOG per recreation than Raymond did final season. Briefly, if he would not shoot extra or take the ice extra, banking on him being even a 90-point participant is iffy. And with Raymond properly past his BT, he is not doubtless to enhance extra shifting forward. After all, it is at all times attainable for a participant to see TOI beneficial properties; but when Raymond hasn’t averaged greater than 2.3 SOG per recreation in a season as but, likelihood is low that he’ll see that rise by a lot, if in any respect. As such, I see him as some extent per recreation participant, with hopes of hitting 90+ sooner or later, however maybe not usually.
So, as I stated within the thread, my selection is Suzuki. He is the oldest, however he will get tons of TOI and might produce regardless of not being a high-volume shooter. Johnston can be my second selection, as he looks like a participant who’ll be at or close to 90 in most seasons, whereas Raymond is in final as a consequence of his TOI and SOG charges putting a practical cap on his ceiling.
Matter #5 – In a factors–solely cap league, a GM has to justify salaries of a few of their forwards. With this in thoughts, will Andrei Svechnikov, Kirill Marchenko, and/or Juraj Slafkovky be constant 70+ level scorers over the subsequent 3-4 seasons?
Let’s begin with Svechnikov. After no factors in eight video games to start out the season, he is produced at some extent per recreation price. This places him on the 70- to 75-point scoring price he’d achieved three straight seasons earlier than a disappointing 2024-25. In two of his prior seasons of 70+ scoring price his SOG per recreation was 3.2, whereas it is solely 2.6 now, however he additionally had a 70+ price averaging solely 2.4 per recreation. And his TOI additionally tracks with two of his 70+ level tempo seasons, plus just isn’t far past his 400-game “massive man” breakout threshold. There are nonetheless considerations, notably that even in his prior 70+ level scoring price seasons, and for 2025-26, the ‘Canes have by no means shot 9.0% at 5×5 with him on the ice. He additionally has by no means had an IPP, both total or on the PP, of 70%, in truth solely being shut as soon as. What this means is he is a participant who’s doing in addition to he’s largely due to his deployment and people round him. Nonetheless, if the purpose is 70+ factors he looks like a reasonably protected guess.
As for Marchenko, he has far much less knowledge from which to attract, however he is trending very properly, with extra SOG and PPPts per recreation this season than final, after seeing these each enhance from 2023-24 to 2024-25. His PPTOI is ticking upward too, as is his TOI. He is additionally faring this properly regardless of his SH% being a bit low for him. His secondary help price is above his norm, but his group SH% at 5×5 is decrease, for a wash. He is additionally on tempo not just for his IPPs to each rise once more, however for them to be above the important thing 70% threshold I affiliate with elite gamers. Lengthy story quick, not solely do I believe he can sleepwalk to a 70+ level price in future seasons, however after this season, he’ll doubtless be an 80-point flooring participant.
Slafkovsky is the one one of many three to not have already produced at a 70+ level tempo. However he’s additionally the youngest by almost 4 years. And his developments have been good, with upticks in TOI and SOG price this season. His SH% is a bit excessive for him and his IPPs stay fairly awful. The group shot 11.7% at 5×5 with him on the ice final yr, however it’s almost as excessive for 2025-26 to date, which is reassuring. However the low IPPs are a priority, as he isn’t even come near 60% total or on the PP. So him being out there may be serving to objectives get scored, however he isn’t a factors magnet. As a bigger body participant, nevertheless, he has time left to completely hit his stride. Nonetheless, IPPs are inclined to not get a lot better, versus different metrics. Can he be a 70+ level participant? Fairly probably, particularly since he’s clearly a web optimistic regardless of not being an enormous scorer and factors nonetheless would possibly come.
In sum, I believe Marchenko is a lock for 70+ per season, with a practical probability a extra. The opposite two are much less sure, though Svech doubtless can pull it off given his previous and this season, whereas Slaf is iffier.
Matter #6 – In a 6–group, factors–solely, keeper cap league, a GM has been supplied Will Smith, Matvei Michkov, Matthew Knies, and Zeev Buium for Jason Robertson, Josh Doan, Pavel Dorofeyev, and Shanye Gostisbehere. They’re involved about Robertson’s contract being too giant to swallow. Given this, and their roster -see under – ought to they settle for?
F: Nikita Kucherov, Jack Hughes, Brandon Hagel, Mitch Marner, Mikko Rantanen, Robertson, Wyatt Johnston, Tim Stutzle, Dylan Guenther, Beckett Sennecke, Doan, Dorofeyev
D: Jake Sanderson, Adam Fox, Victor Hedman, Axel Sandin-Pellikka, Brandt Clarke, Gostibehere
G: Connor Hellebuyck, Dustin Wolf, Yaroslav Askarov
I rely a complete of 21 gamers on their roster. If that’s what number of might be rostered by all groups, then solely 126 gamers are owned leaguewide. It additionally signifies that, much more so than ordinary, a commerce is gained by getting one of the best participant, since there ought to be no scarcity of fairly first rate guys to seize from the waiver wire at any time.
Additionally, the smaller the league, the much less profit to tanking, or stockpiling future property. This too is as a result of there ought to be no scarcity of choices on the market. For sure Smith, Michkov, Knies and Buium are extremely regarded, and likelihood is at the least a pair flip into high tier abilities, plus even now Smith and Knies can be upgrades to Doan and arguably Dorofeyev as properly. I additionally am not against promoting excessive on Ghost, who’s enjoying unsustainably properly. However giving up JRob can be a troublesome capsule to swallow. And though it is not mistaken to be involved concerning the cap hit for his new deal, needless to say the likes of Kyle Connor, Mitch Marner, and Rantanen all acquired $12M AAV offers, so I am unable to see Robertson making extra, during which case this group ought to have the ability to abdomen that.
Additionally, in the event that they make this deal, then what? By the point these 4 gamers absolutely hit their stride, probably Kucherov, Hedman and Hellebuyck will probably be trending downward. And though this group has some younger expertise, I believe the GM can be higher suited to attempt to play for the right here and now. So, I am not doing this deal, however making an attempt to commerce Ghost and, if prices are a priority, Marner reasonably than Robertson, as Marner has not taken the world by storm in Vegas, however continues to be a participant with very excessive title worth.
THE ANSWER TO WHO THE PLAYER IS……….Robyn Regehr!
************
Questions for Mailbag column wanted
The upcoming version of my month-to-month mailbag nonetheless has room for extra questions, which you’ll be able to ship me by both non-public messaging “rizzeedizzee” by way of the DobberHockey Boards, or emailing [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the topic line.
