Welcome again to a different version of the Roos Lets Free month-to-month mailbag, the place I reply your fantasy hockey questions by giving recommendation that needs to be helpful to all poolies even when they do not personal the precise gamers being mentioned. As a reminder, if you’d like your fantasy hockey query(s) answered within the subsequent mailbag, try the top of the column, the place I clarify the methods to get it/them to me in addition to the main points you must present when sending. The sooner you ship a query the extra probably it’s to be included within the mailbag, and the deeper dive I can present with my reply.
Query #1 (from Eric)
I’m in a 12 group, maintain 6 league with skater classes and scoring of G=3, A=2, +/- = 0.25, PIM=0.5, PPG= 1, PPA=0.5, SHG=3, SHA=2, GWG=1, SOG=0.5, FW=0.1, FL= -0.05, HIT=0.5, BLK=0.75. Goalie classes are all volumed-based. Beginning line-ups are 2C, 2LW, 2RW, 4D, 2G, with 4 Bench and a pair of IR.
In our league the underside 6 groups enter right into a playoff to find out draft order, whereas the highest 6 groups get to draft within the precise reverse order they end the season. Final season I judged it was time for a rebuild, and this season I figured I wouldn’t but be robust sufficient to compete and would wish to proceed the rebuild and enter the draft playoffs but once more. Alas, the rebuild each went too nicely and too poorly, as I’m too removed from the underside 6 to make the draft playoffs however not going ok to complete within the cash. In the end, I made a decision to attempt to proceed to rebuild, even when I do not get into place for a high six decide.
As of now, my group consists of Nico Hischier, Sam Reinhart, Cutter Gauthier, Matt Boldy, Ivan Demidov, David Pastrnak, Matvei Michkov, Matt Roy, Evan Bouchard, Nikita Zadorov, Dougie Hamilton, Darnell Nurse, Jusse Saros, Mackenzie Blackwood, Karel Vejmelka and Jet Greaves. There isn’t any offseason buying and selling, so any offers I would make would must be throughout the season.
I’ve my six keepers as Pastrnak, Demidov, Boldy, Michkov, Bouchard, and Gauthier. Previous to him getting used at LW, Michkov was hurting my group not simply due to his efficiency, however he was solely RW eligible, giving me a logjam of RWs who typically performed on the identical evening. Now he’s LW/RW (this can be a Yahoo league) so I’m in a position to roster him extra typically, however I fear about how issues will unfold for him in Philly. Is he going to falter with Tocchet as coach, or is he nonetheless price persistence? I do know buying and selling him now can be the definition of promoting low, however I really feel having 2 keeper D is a good suggestion and surprise if he’s the odd man out in that RW spot. Perhaps I can embody him in a package deal for a high 5 D-man, or am I dreaming? Reinhart’s C/RW eligibility is effective, however I’ve gotten zero traction in my makes an attempt to commerce him to date. Is Gauthier a particular maintain?
Michkov and Tocchet may be like oil and water, however it’s too quickly to deem Michkov a failure, particularly together with his added positional flexibility in your league. I’d preach persistence — maintain and hope. Nonetheless, putting apart any animus Tocchet might need towards Michkov, there’s additionally the actual fact Tocchet shouldn’t be doing his gamers favors by the best way he deploys them, with no Flyer ahead within the high 100 for common TOI per recreation, or within the high 150 in PP TOI per recreation. That positively shouldn’t be conducive to scoring. As such, Michkov probably has a 70-point ceiling as long as Tocchet is coach; however that may not be for much longer if the group doesn’t thrive. I do see Michkov as a keeper, particularly since you are still rebuilding.
Gauthier has slowed from hit torrid early season tempo, however he looks as if he has the makings of an excellent participant, and he shoots a ton, which is an enormous deal in your league. For those who have been nearer to successful, Reinhart might be in rivalry as a substitute of Michkov; however in your state of affairs I like maintaining Michkov and Demidov, fairly than Reinhart, who’s stable however seemingly on a downward trajectory.
Do discover buying and selling Reinhart, as I really feel like his 94-point season with 57 targets is contemporary sufficient within the minds of GMs as to entice them into paying you greater than he is price. In any case, in Yahoo leagues he was, on common, the twenty second participant drafted for 25-26, forward of, amongst others, Jack Hughes, Sidney Crosby, Matt Boldy, Jason Robertson, Nick Suzuki, Mark Scheifele, and Tage Thompson. Though he is carried out worse in 25-26 than 24-25, after having carried out worse in 24-25 than 23-24, once more I consider his title worth, and group, might web a stable return. When you have doubts about Michkov or Gauthier, maybe you commerce Reinhart and one in all them to get a high tier d-man, on condition that they comprise 40% of your skater line-up. You would possibly even attempt dangling Vejmelka, who, if certainly your goalie stats are very volume-based, might be engaging if coupled with one of many kids. It may be price at the very least exploring. Good luck!
Query #2 (from Oliver)
I am in a 12 group, maintain three league, the place a participant may be saved solely than three seasons, but when a participant is traded, his keeper clock resets, and two GMs are “abusing” that wrinkle and have traded Nathan Mackinnon and Connor McDavid amongst themselves again and again. Thus, we’re making an attempt to determine a method to cease this, and the thought floating round is to not enable the very same commerce to happen between two GMs. Do you assume that may be a resolution, or do you might have another concepts?
Other than that, my group sits in seventh, with the highest eight making the playoffs and the underside 4 drafting in reverse order, however the final place group has to pay a literal worth to get the primary decide, as a final place end means it’s going to value you double the $20 purchase for the next season. Right here is my present roster:
C – Elias Pettersson (LW), Charlie Coyle (RW)
LW – Matthew Tkachuk (RW), Trevor Zegras (C)
RW – Nikita Kucherov, Emil Heinman (LW)
D – Brandt Clarke, Radko Gudas, Darren Raddysh, Ben Chiarot,
G – Alex Lyon, Akira Schmid
Bench – Bo Horvat (C), Thomas Chabot, Sidney Crosby (C)
IR – Adam Fox, Alex Nedeljkovic
I traded away gamers to get Tkachuk and Kucherov. I’m additionally in a nasty spot if I make playoffs, since I had to make use of a number of my add/drops to cope with accidents this 12 months, which leaves me with a small quantity to capitalize on streamers for playoffs. My keepers can be Tkachuk, Kuch, and I’m pondering both Raddysh, Fox, or Crosby – leaning in the direction of Raddysh if he retains his PP1 function, since he appears to be an excellent banger/factors D, and I needed to focus on a high-tier defenseman as a keeper. Fox was initially my decide, however I feel he will get injured typically and doesn’t contribute as a lot when it comes to peripherals.
I used to be pondering of making an attempt to unload my different high-end gamers like Crosby and Fox to different managers for top draft picks earlier than the commerce deadline. What would you counsel I do in my state of affairs?
Let’s begin with the commerce again keeper finish round state of affairs that is taking place. To me, the answer appears easy, a lot in order that I ponder if I am lacking one thing. However from the place I sit, the rule needs to be no participant may be saved for greater than three consecutive years…..interval. That method a participant may be traded numerous instances, however trades don’t reset his keeper clock. It’s honest, and it’s straightforward to watch. That’s precisely the way it works in my major league, which additionally has a rule that any free agent who’s saved should be saved within the twelfth spherical, and that can’t be circumvented by a GM dropping a participant who was drafted earlier, because the rule is that if a participant who had been drafted/retained in spherical 1-11 is dropped then picked up as a free agent, he should be saved within the spherical he would’ve needed to have been saved if not dropped. Additionally, I would watch out a few final place penalty, since what’s to cease a group from simply not returning as a substitute of getting to pay double?
As in your keepers, I coated Raddysh in my final mailbag. There you possibly can learn that if certainly he is for actual, he’d be fairly the unicorn. Nonetheless, he checks sufficient packing containers as to assume he has certainly arrived and wouldn’t be vulnerable to seeing his manufacturing crater subsequent season, this regardless of the actual fact he is going nuts proper when he is an impending UFA. Do I consider he can proceed to be a point-per-game participant? Extremely unlikely; nevertheless, I feel the 50s or 60s may be viable, particularly since he is now carried out what he is carried out for as many video games as he is carried out it. That additionally assumes he stays with Tampa, which I do assume will happen. On one other group, I would fear a bit extra a few greater drop off.
Regardless although, of what might or might not happen, Raddysh is very similar to Brandon Bussi in that in the event you attempt to commerce him away, you will be met with skepticism as a consequence of lack of pedigree and previous outcomes, whereas in the event you attempt to commerce for him, his GM will search for a ransom in return. With Bussi, what’s taking place may be very a lot akin to the trail that Tim Thomas took……but in addition that of Dwyane Roloson. Which one will he be, or will he fall someplace in between? These in search of to personal him will attempt to liken him to Roloson, whereas those that personal him will tout him as Thomas 2.0. It will be the identical with Raddysh. You both maintain him, or you do not, as buying and selling is unlikely to yield a desired end result. That having been mentioned, in the event you get approached by one other GM providing superb worth, I would take into account it, as you additionally nonetheless have Fox, who, however the probably rebuild on which the Ranger will embark, continues to be an elite d-man.
General although, I am really not maintaining both Raddysh or Fox most definitely. Kucherov is a simple maintain, and Tkachuk is as nicely. For the third, Crosby is the secure maintain, and EP40 is the chance/reward maintain. I can see a case to be made for both, and it is dependent upon whether or not you need a surer factor in Crosby, or the house run potential in Pettersson. However I’d select one in all them over both of your d-men. Good luck!
Query #3 (from Me)
Is it too reactionary to ask if Cale Makar‘s reign as undisputed #1 fantasy d-man might be over given how Zach Werenski has been enjoying all season and Quinn Hughes has fared because the begin of 2026?
I used to be stunned I hadn’t already acquired a query like this; nevertheless, perhaps it was as a result of Hughes actually began to go supernova simply earlier than the break and within the Olympics, and Makar is…..nicely…..Makar. However since nobody requested it, I will ask it to myself, together with the opposite three questions this month.
Let’s have in mind Makar had a gradual – for him – in January, earlier than which he was at 53 factors in 45 video games, for a 95-point scoring fee which might be proper according to his norm. It’s notable that he’s on tempo to have the bottom SOG per recreation fee since his second season, and to not hit 30+ PPPts for the primary time since that early marketing campaign as nicely. That is occurring regardless of his PPTOI per recreation a profession excessive, and fewer SH responsibility per recreation, making his barely decrease TOI really not a problem. So what’s “fallacious”?
It is minor, however he has no SHPs, after 5 in every of the previous two seasons. He is additionally hit ten mixed posts and crossbars, which, if it stays at that tempo, can be the second highest fee for his profession. He is also pacing for under three PPGs, having been at seven or extra in every of the previous 4 seasons. His PP SOG fee is maintaining together with his norm although, as is his taking pictures proportion. Actually, the Avs being useless final within the NHL in PP conversion proportion is an enormous part, this after having the ninth simplest PP final season and the fifth greatest in 2023-24. It does seem like they’re on a downward slide on this space; however to fall from ninth to final looks as if an aberration. Perhaps it’s going to take till subsequent season for them to retool sufficient to rise once more; nevertheless, there is just one method for issues to go, and that is up. So far as different multicat areas, Makar is amazingly plus as normal, on high of getting his 0.5 HIT and 1.5-2 BLK per recreation, so no points there.
Turning to Werenski, the fascinating factor about him is regardless of having debuted three seasons previous to Makar, he is barely a 12 months older. Many felt his efficiency final season made him a one hit surprise, however he is carried out even higher for 2025-26. Seemingly he had this in him all alongside, however the mixture of him hitting breakout threshold recreation quantity 400 in 2023-24, and – knock on wooden – having the ability to keep wholesome for sufficient video games, allowed him to carry out as much as his full potential. Certainly his SH% of 10.3% regardless of firing 3.6 SOG per recreation is troublesome to see as sustainable, though for what it is price final season, regardless of a complete of 23 targets, Werenski hit an an identical mixed variety of posts and crossbars – additionally 23! This season he is hit solely 4 mixed; so these photographs which have been an inch or two from being targets final season have certainly been targets for 2025-26.
Much more so than Makar, Werenski seems to have life like room to fare higher on the PP, as he is a great bit behind his fee of just below one PPPt per each three video games from final season, and he might simply have extra PPPts, as his PP IPP is once more above 75%, which is kind of wonderful. In any other case, his group SH% at 5×5 is barely above his personal SH%, and his OZ% and secondary help charges are affordable. He seems to be to be very a lot the actual deal. Though his SOG fee is nice for multicat, his +/- shouldn’t be on a par with Makar, and even his as soon as excessive BLK complete has shrank, making him a drag in each HIT and BLK.
To evaluate Hughes, you do actually need to take a look at simply his Minnesota time. After taking a bit to completely get into the swing of issues there, he is been scorching scorching, as because the begin of Q3 he is over 3.0 SOG per contest and taking the ice for almost half of each recreation regardless of subsequent to no SH responsibility and an OZ% nonetheless at 54.5%. He is piling on the PPPts too. But he nonetheless lacks targets, and he is barely even when it comes to +/- over this stretch. As per normal he has nearly no HIT, plus stays fairly weak BLK too. Nonetheless, his PP acumen, and him taking the ice for such a big chunk of the sport, will result in factors, and many them, maybe extra – per recreation – than both Makar or Werenski.
Do I consider Makar is not the undisputed #1 fantasy rearguard? I feel below most conditions he nonetheless is. In leagues which are heavy on SOG and targets although, Werenski is wonderful, whereas in these which are factors solely, Hughes would possibly now maintain an edge or at the very least it is now getting nearer.
Query #4 (from Me too)
What are we to make of Mark Scheifele? He is about to show 33 however having by far his greatest season, and this after his greatest full season in 2024-25? Is he immune from father time? How lengthy can this final?
Scheifele appears to be getting older like tremendous wine fantasy-wise. After all many level to his very excessive SH%; nevertheless, reality be instructed it is not that elevated, as he was 20% or extra in two of the previous three seasons. His PP scoring fee, although a bit increased, shouldn’t be via the roof. Ice instances are all in his regular ranges too. However whenever you peel again the onion, that is the place you see indications of actually unsustainable stats. For one, his group SH% is 14.7%, when previous to final season it had been above 10.0% in one in all his prior seven seasons. Additionally, his secondary help fee is 41.9% after being below 34% every of the previous two seasons. His total IPP is 72.9% after having been below 70% in eight of the final 9 campaigns. Even his PP IPP, at an unremarkable 61.5%, can be a 5 season excessive.
There’s additionally the actual fact that is coinciding with Kyle Connor having elevated himself to a 90-100 level man. That’s positively serving to Scheifele, as they’re joined on the hip, a lot in order that I can’t even do a “With or With out You” comparability. Nonetheless, with Connor prone to stay at this degree for at the very least a number of extra seasons, likelihood is Scheifele will probably be alongside for the trip. However not a circa 100-point tempo Scheifele, as his group SH%, IPPs, and secondary help fee point out he is perhaps not even a 90-point man, and extra prone to produce at a degree we noticed final season.
Query #5 (from Me once more)
For individuals who personal Matthew Knies in keepers, is there trigger for concern? He was scorching to start out the season regardless of the struggles of Auston Matthews. However since being separated from Matthews he is been chilly whereas Matthews has proven indicators of enchancment? In the event that they lack chemistry, what is going to that imply for Knies long run?
First off, Knies is a big body participant. Thus, for him to have carried out in addition to he has regardless of being one other two to a few seasons from his 400-game breakout threshold is kind of outstanding. Sure, the BT recreation complete is taken into account the norm, and there are aberrations. Nonetheless, from the place I sit it means we will not totally choose Knies primarily based on what we’re seeing now, as he might need one other gear. That having been mentioned, we will attempt to determine what his trajectory could also be for the remainder of this season and close to future.
Wanting on the high degree knowledge, we see Knies averaged over 20:00 per recreation and three:00 on the PP in Q1, on his method to 22 factors in 19 video games. By Q2, these TOIs had shrunk to 18:19 and a pair of:25, and his scoring to 14 factors in 19 video games, whereas for Q3 he is at 12 factors in 19 video games regardless of nonetheless decrease TOIs, particularly 17:31 and a pair of:14 per recreation. The excellent news is when he performs alongside high tier expertise and will get heaps of ice time, he appears to thrive; nevertheless, if he has to earn again that TOI, then there may be a problem since he can not seem to succeed with out it. Not supreme.
Additionally, he would not shoot a lot, on tempo for below two SOG per recreation. He is additionally exterior of the highest 100 in ahead PP TOI over the previous two seasons, however there too is not forcing the problem, standing tied for 108th in PPPts. On a constructive word, he is on observe but once more for Toronto to have a double digit SH% at 5×5 when he is on the ice. That is nice to see, particularly when it is coupled with a 73.8% total IPP, which is nicely above the 70% threshold I equate with actually particular expertise. Sadly, on the PP his IPP is 44.4%, this after being 42.8% final season. That’s horrendous; however the Leafs should not brimming with high tier expertise, such that his PP1 spot is probably going secure. Nonetheless, we shouldn’t be holding our breath for him to instantly see an enormous increase in PP scoring. His secondary assists fee is okay, as per normal, as is his OZ%.
Briefly, Knies is, at the very least at this stage of his profession, a participant whose presence results in scoring and is a confirmed factors magnet. However he would not shoot almost sufficient, and is seemingly misplaced on the PP. His “spots” are probably secure, such that I see him within the 65-75 level vary this season and the following couple, maybe with a lift when he hits his breakout threshold.
Query #6 (from the Additionally Me)
After wanting like he could also be slowing during the last two seasons, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has bounced again. Ought to keeper league GMs use this as a chance to promote excessive, or would that be ill-advised?
Briefly, I would say sure – I would attempt to promote excessive. RNH has seemingly established a sample of robust play for one season, then two seasons the place he fares worse, adopted by a bounce again, very similar to what’s occurred with Vincent Trocheck. After all simply because patterns have occurred doesn’t suggest they’re going to proceed, for higher and/or worse. However RNH’s lack of back-to-back profitable seasons leaves me inclined to see him as a participant to promote excessive when you possibly can, then purchase again – or redraft – if/when his worth goes down.
What additionally makes me much more wanting to promote excessive now’s his trending. His SOG fee for the final two profitable seasons have been 2.6 and a pair of.5 per recreation, versus 1.7 for this season. And never surprisingly, it is his PP scoring that vastly boosting his manufacturing. He can not seem to join the dots in that space two seasons in a row both.
The opposite actuality is he can’t be counted upon to play alongside Connor McDavid and/or Leon Draisaitl each season. As an alternative, it looks as if after RNH succeeds when enjoying with one or each of its stars for a season, Edmonton feels they will have RNH middle his personal line, which causes his scoring to drop. Is it doable he finds a everlasting house with one or each of Edmonton’s high skills? By no means say by no means; however the reality it hasn’t occurred for a number of seasons in a row, and particularly after profitable seasons, makes me involved.
Additionally, regardless of enjoying rather more with Connor McDavid at ES this season, the Oilers are taking pictures 7.9% as a group with RNH on the ice, the identical fee they did final season when RNH faltered. What this means is RNH is a drag on that line, and additional undercuts hopes that he’d stick with McDavid subsequent season but once more. As for different metrics, RNH’s IPPs are each 54.0% total and 52.4% on the PP, which aren’t solely horrible, however below 60% for the third season in a row, which may be very regarding, as if that was the case solely in his poor seasons then it could be one factor, however for it to be the identical when he is thriving once more is one other. And his OZ% and secondary help fee do not tilt the scales in both course.
So sure, promote excessive on RNH, though perhaps not till the top of the season in the event you want his manufacturing. However in the event you’re not making an attempt to win, commerce him now, as he would possibly even come again to earth this season, inflicting his worth to crater.
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To get mailbag inquiries to me both (1) e mail them to [email protected] with the phrases “Roos Mailbag” as the topic line, or (2) ship them to me by way of a personal message on the DobberHockey Boards, the place my username is “rizzeedizzee”.
When sending me your questions, bear in mind to offer as a lot element about your league/state of affairs as doable. Examples of issues I must know embody what sort of league you are in (i.e., restricted keeper, dynasty, or one-year; Roto vs. H2H; public sale – in that case, what the funds is – or non-auction), what number of groups are within the league, does the wage cap matter, what number of gamers are rostered (and of these, what number of begin at every place in addition to what number of bench and/or IR spots there are), what classes are scored and the way are they weighted, plus different particulars if pertinent. In case your query includes whether or not to select up or drop a participant, give me an inventory of high free brokers accessible and let me know if the variety of pick-ups is proscribed or if there’s a precedence system for pick-ups. For those who’re pondering of constructing a commerce, it could be good to know not solely the roster of the opposite group you would possibly commerce with but in addition the place you stand in your classes. In case your query includes keepers, along with giving me the choices for who to maintain, let me know if offseason buying and selling is allowed and to what extent it’s a viable possibility given your league. In sum, the secret’s to inform me sufficient for me to present you a very correct reply, and for readers of this column to profit from the reply/recommendation I present. When unsure, it is best to err on the aspect of inclusion since I can at all times omit or disregard issues that do not matter.
