Welcome again to Goldipucks and the Three Skaters, a play on phrases of the Goldilocks and the Three Bears story. As an alternative of there being three bowls of porridge although, I cowl three skaters and declare one too sizzling (i.e., doing unsustainably higher than he ought to), one other too chilly (i.e., doing unsustainably worse), and a 3rd “good” (i.e., producing the place he must be). As well as, I additionally assign every a score of 1-10, indicating how sizzling (rated 7-10, the place 10 is essentially the most unsustainably sizzling), chilly (rated 1-4, the place 1 is essentially the most unsustainably chilly), or “good” (rated 4-7, the place 5.5 is essentially the most “good”) he’s.
By the point you are studying this, the 2025-26 common season can be nearly absolutely within the books. Meaning it is time to shift your focus away from fantasy hockey, at the least for some time? Positively not. In fact, for the NHL groups lucky sufficient to have the playoffs, you will see how their gamers carry out for at the least a short time longer. However for these on squads which did not qualify, there is no extra hockey to be performed. All of the extra cause although to cowl skaters on non-playoff groups on this week’s Goldipucks! On faucet are Filip Hronek, Mika Zibanejad, and Nico Hischier. Are you able to deduce which of the three had a 2025-26 that was too sizzling, versus whose 2025-26 was too chilly, and at last the skater with a 2025-26 that was “good?” Learn on and see for those who guessed all three. Stats are present via April eleventh video games.
Filip Hronek (79 GP, 8G, 39A, 130 SOG, 24:57 TOI, 23 PPPts, 1:55 PP, 40.9% PP%)
With the Wings, Hronek with the definition of a “regular eddie” on condition that his scoring price for every of his 4 seasons there ranged from 38 to 41. However upon arriving in Vancouver, that price rose to fifty factors, adopted by a 49-point tempo the subsequent season. However for 2024-25, his scoring price dipped again to 44 factors, making some marvel if he actually is just some extent per each different sport sort of defenseman in any case. This season although he is risen again to a 49-point tempo, due largely to 32 factors within the 47 video games since Quinn Hughes was traded. Is what we’re seeing from Hronek sustainable? In a phrase, no.
What jumps off the web page with respect to Hronek is him setting a profession excessive in PPPts regardless of having taken the ice for simply 40.9% of his crew’s PP minutes. Of the 15 complete factors he had earlier than Hughes was traded, solely 5 got here on the PP, that means he did fare significantly better on the PP as soon as Hughes was out of the image. Why, then, has Hronek’s PP TOI remained so low? Though Hronek took the ice for 70%+ of Vancouver’s PP time in 11 of Vancouver’s final 20 video games after having completed simply as soon as earlier than then, his PPTOI was introduced down by Vancouver not drawing a single penalty in three video games of his final 25 video games plus a number of different cases of them not logging a lot PP time regardless of him getting the lion’s share of it.
Additionally, for the season as an entire, Hronek’s had a 73.1% PP IPP, which, though fairly excessive, is surprisingly not uncharted territory for him, as he is been even greater twice, though he is additionally been beneath 65% in all however one in all his different seasons. This is the factor – Hronek isn’t a PP1 QB. When nonetheless with Detroit, and thought to be the crew’s prime rearguard, he by no means took the ice for even 55% of their PP minutes. Additionally, he didn’t profit from these minutes, as from the 2019-20 via 2021-22 seasons, Hronek cumulatively took the ice for the twenty sixth most PP minutes of any d-man; however his PPPt complete put him solely tied for fortieth. There’s additionally the truth that within the Hughes commerce Vancouver obtained Zeev Buium, thought to be a excessive upside offensive defenseman. Why, then is Buium not manning PP1? Almost certainly as a result of the Canucks see this as a misplaced season and are easing Buium into issues. Though Hronek has fared nicely on the PP post-Hughes, I do not see a universe the place he stays the PP1 QB for greater than a small portion of 2026-27, if in any respect; so, in flip, he ought to shed PPPts.
Hronek’s SOG price additionally has downticked to 1.6 per sport, when it was 1.8 and 1.9 in his prior finest seasons. The dip would possibly assist clarify how Hronek’s SH% this season is an effective bit above his norm, and thus has probably led to at the least a aim or two he should not have had. Additionally, after a grand complete of 1 SHP in his total profession, Hronek has two in 2025-26. That likewise didn’t give him a serious enhance; however once more represented one other additional level or two which provides up and suggests he will not replicate his post-Hughes stage of manufacturing.
Hronek’s general IPP is 50.5%, which, though not staggeringly excessive, is likewise considerably out of the norm, given he was within the 41%-47% vary in his prior Canuck seasons. What’s fascinating although is regardless of his SH% being excessive, his crew SH% at 5×5 is a 5 12 months low, and this for a participant who was in double digits in his previous two seasons, together with when he did nicely in 2023-24 but additionally when he fared poorly in 2024-25. That was when Hughes was with the crew, so it is unlikely to return to that stage, plus if it did chances are high his IPP would fall. Hronek’s secondary help price is low for him, that means he could also be because of regain some factors he might lose through different metrics going again to their norms. His OZ% has been on a downward pattern for 2 seasons, which might reduce into factors which will have come to him through extra secondary assists, for maybe a wash or near it.
Hronek is a stable NHL d-man, and an honest fantasy choice, however he shouldn’t be thought to be a ~50-point producer, making his 2025-26 TOO HOT. With him unlikely to maintain a grip on PP1, plus different metrics being extra internet destructive than constructive, he will get a score of 8.25, as he must be counted upon for roughly level per each different sport manufacturing.
Mika Zibanejad (79GP, 33G, 43, 210 SOG, 20:53 TOI, 34 PPPts, 3:16 PP, 76.1% PP%)
Not too long ago taking the ice for his one thousandth common season sport, and turning 34 the day this column goes stay, Zibanejad should’ve missed the memo that he must be slowing relatively than thriving. He has just under level per sport numbers after two seasons the place he seemed like his manufacturing was waning. Is that this scoring price sustainable? Seemingly sure.
Many felt Ranger skaters would see their manufacturing drop as soon as Artemi Panarin, who has been an offensive catalyst for his total profession, was traded to the Kings. As an alternative, most have completed higher, together with Zibanejad. How can this be? For one, Panarin was a factors magnet, with sky excessive IPPs for many of his profession. Thus, though his presence was resulting in extra scoring, if he was getting factors on practically all of these targets that left fewer for different gamers. With him gone now, not solely are there extra factors to go round, but additionally maybe a realization amongst gamers like Zibanejad, Alexis Lafreniere, Adam Fox and J.T. Miller that they should step up their video games with out Panarin, they usually certainly have completed so.
Within the case of Zibanejad, the facility play has all the time been his “bread and butter,” that means when he thrived on the PP, he thrived general as nicely. This marks his fourth season of 15+ PPGs, with these 4 seasons, not coincidentally, being the perfect of his profession. It’s not unreasonable to foresee him repeating this PP success, since he had 15+ PPGs two seasons in a row as just lately as 2021-22 and 2022-23. It’s true that Zibanejad has far fewer PPSOG this season than in both of these two campaigns and fewer than all however one ahead who had as many PPGs as him this season; nevertheless, his 77.5% PP IPP was the third highest of any of the 44 forwards with double digits PPGs, and highest of any outdoors of the highest seven in PPGs, that means that even when his PP SH% was unsustainably excessive and his PPG complete will fall, chances are high a lot of these “misplaced” PPGs can be repackaged as PP assists.
Additionally, that 77.5% PP IPP isn’t uncharted territory for Zibanejad, as he was really above 84% in two of his prior 5 seasons. Furthermore, he took the ice for greater than 75% of New York’s PP minutes, marking the primary time he was above that threshold in his profession. But it has translated to solely 3:16 of PPTOI per sport. And looking out on the different forwards who’re likewise above 75%, all however two have taken the ice for at the least 20 extra seconds of PP time per sport. Additionally, the Rangers have the fifth fewest PP alternatives of any NHL crew, after rating eighth worst in 2024-25 and in the midst of the pack in 2023-24. Likelihood is he’ll see extra PPTOI per sport subsequent season if he nonetheless takes the ice for 75%+ of New York’s man benefit minutes, which appears to be all however assured.
Talking of IPPs, Zibanejad’s general IPP is a powerful 71.0%. Apparently, it was 70.5% final season when he didn’t produce nicely. However the reality it was over 70%, plus was 77.8% for 2022-23, reveals he nonetheless very a lot has a nostril for scoring even at his age, and in addition bodes nicely for him to supply as he’s now when it comes time for subsequent season, particularly with out Panarin grabbing factors like he did prior to now.
different metrics, Zibanejad’s secondary assists price is in his regular vary, as is his crew SH% at 5×5. What is sweet to see although is his OZ% is 52.6%, which, though not that prime, is just the second time it has been over 50% within the final eight seasons, and for all his level per sport seasons it was beneath 50%. Additionally, the Rangers had been a really awful crew this season, that means they began extra shifts within the defensive zone than traditional, such that for Zibanejad’s OZ% to be this excessive is an indication the crew was going out of its approach to put him in additional positions to attain. If this continues, it ought to assist him sustain this tempo subsequent season. Additionally, Zibanejad has solely two SHPs this season, after having 4-6 in 5 of the final six seasons, so both he goes again to regular and will get extra SHPs or, if not, then he is probably not enjoying as a lot on the PK, and, in flip, extra more likely to rating.
Why is it that I am not suggesting that Zibanejad will see his scoring rise? Maily it is the mix of an abnormally excessive SH% however low SOG price as in comparison with prior seasons that noticed him produce this nicely. His profession SH% coming into this season was 13.0%, and solely as soon as was it ever greater, plus in all however one in all his finest seasons his SOG per sport was 3.1 or greater per sport. Sure, a better SH% alongside a low SOG price is sensible; however within the one season the place he beforehand was some extent per sport participant and did not common 3.1+ SOG per sport, his SH% was a extra affordable 13.2%. Based mostly on what was famous above, the elevated share is a results of him having such a excessive SH% on the PP, making it much less of a priority although that his scoring will crater, since even when his PPGs drop he might see his PPPts not fall by a lot. Additionally, regardless of such a excessive SH%, Zibs has hit a complete of 12 posts and crossbars, which is a bit greater than it was for any of his prior level per sport seasons, and means additionally that he was inches away from much more targets, and, in flip, making his excessive SH% much less obtrusive.
Though he is getting up there in years in addition to video games performed, Zibanejad seems to be like he is not slowing. And his metrics as an entire recommend that his 2025-26 was JUST RIGHT, and he must be counted upon for about level per sport numbers once more subsequent season, giving him a score of 5.25 and reminding poolies not solely can unhealthy groups have stable fantasy performers, but additionally that when a participant – like Panarin – who’s alleged to make others higher leaves, it can lead to others really doing higher because of them upping their effort and/or that participant not being round to syphon away factors.
Nico Hischier (8037P, 26G, A, 205 SOG, 20:44 TOI, 22 PPPts, 3:02 PP, 72.8% PP%)
A former first general choose, Hischier had lofty expectations however fell nicely brief till lastly seeming to piece issues collectively in 2022-23 to the tune of 83 factors. However he did not parlay that into higher success, with scoring charges of 75 and 77 the subsequent two seasons. For 2025-26 although, he is seen his scoring fall even additional, elevating questions as as to whether he is nonetheless nearly as good as he had been. Is Hischier certainly on a downward slide? Positively not.
On the floor, Hischier must be doing at the least in addition to he has the previous two seasons, as his TOIs, SH%, and SOG charges are all inside regular ranges. Sure, his finest season his SOG price was 3.0, and since then he is by no means been above 2.6; nevertheless, that probably means he is not fairly some extent per sport participant. His general IPP and his secondary help price for 2025-26 are additionally corresponding to latest seasons, as is his OZ%. Why then is he performing markedly worse than in his previous two seasons?
That is the right instance of the significance of not simply one’s private SH%, but additionally the crew’s SH% at 5×5 with them on the ice, as for Hischier it was a paltry 5.9%, after by no means as soon as being beneath 8.2% and in reality being between 9.0 and 10.8% in three of the final 4 seasons. How low is 5.9%? Of 406 forwards who performed 40+ video games this season, solely 19 have a decrease 5×5 crew SH%. What number of of these 19 are producing in addition to Hischier? Not solely zero, however none has anyplace near even some extent per each different sport scoring price. The truth is, Hischier is the one ahead not on the Devils to attain at a 60+ level tempo this season regardless of having a crew SH% decrease than 7.8%, which, for added perspective, ranked that participant – Sam Reinhart – barely inside the backside 100 of the 406. What which means is Hischier did amazingly regardless of big scoring headwinds. Additionally, any worries as to this being a downward pattern are allayed by the very fact he has a lot knowledge from which to attract within the type of previous seasons, and the way atypically low this quantity is.
One other small issue is Hischier has zero SHPs, having had at the least two in 5 of the previous six seasons. Past that, for the second season in a row Hischier hit double digits in PPGs. But whereas final season that rightfully led to him having a better than traditional SH%, this season it didn’t. Each this season and final, Hischier has nearly equivalent ratios of SOG from 0-15 toes, 16-30 toes, and 31+ toes. However final season he had 18 PPGs on 55 PPSOG, whereas for this season he has extra PPSOG – 66 – but fewer PPGs. Though his PP SH% final season was too excessive, it is too low this season, as wanting on the 26 forwards with extra PPGs, 15 have at the least ten extra PPSOG. There too he probably ought to’ve had at the least just a few extra factors within the type of PPGs.
Furthermore, the Devils had 61 PPGs in 2024-25, which was good for fourth in your entire NHL. This season they sit at 41, making them a center of the pack crew. Proper there that is a marked lower; and on condition that Hischier’s PP IPP this season was 61.1%%, which is even greater than his charges in his earlier 5 seasons, he “misplaced” fairly just a few PPPts. And if we take into account that 61 PPGs may be greater than they determine to get once more quickly, they need to do higher, with Hischier, given his unquestioned spot on PP1, there to reap the advantages.
Those that had been involved that Hischier’s manufacturing may be trending downward will be reassured, as this season seems to be to have been an aberration from a manufacturing standpoint because of a miniscule crew SH at 5×5 and misplaced PPGs. As such he was TOO COLD. Subsequent season he must be again to his regular 75-80 level methods, giving him a score of two.25.
***********************
Questions for Mailbag
My month-to-month mailbag has room for many extra questions. To get yours inquiries to me, ship (1) a non-public message to “rizzeedizzee” through the DobberHockey Boards, or (2) an e-mail to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the topic line.
