With the common season within the books, it is time– for higher or, sadly for me within the final couple of seasons, worse – to look again at my Fearless Forecasts for 2025-16. For the 2024-25 marketing campaign simply certainly one of my forecasts got here true, though I used to be shut on a couple of, which is why I assign every forecast a letter grade, since getting one mistaken doesn’t all the time imply I deserve an F. How did I fare this time round? Learn on to search out out, though earlier than doing so please keep in mind these are referred to as fearless forecasts for a cause, that means I attempt to go extra out on a limb than most prognosticators, whereas nonetheless having cheap bases for every forecast.
To profit from this column, I am not simply going to record the forecasts and outcomes, but in addition cowl what classes might be realized in hindsight whether or not I obtained the forecast proper or mistaken. In brief, even when I my forecast was incorrect, the reasoning as to why not ought to be useful for poolies in making fantasy selections on a going ahead foundation.
Lastly, on the finish of the column I am going to see how effectively you probably did in predicting which of the forecasts would or wouldn’t come true, as there was a ballot the place you might vote on the outcomes. Onto the forecasts!
1) Neal Pionk could have the next scoring charge than Josh Morrissey
End result – Morrissey’s scoring charge shrank, however simply by somewhat, whereas Pionk had his worst season ever
Grade – F
Classes Discovered – Season totals usually are much less predictive than traits; entrenched d-men have a tendency to remain entrenched; there’s all the time the chance of a letdown issue after a participant inks a long-term deal; wage can matter, however much less so when one participant’s wage is barely decrease resulting from being a cut price by advantage of a deal signed a number of seasons in the past; scoring charges are much less predictive the less video games they cowl
As you possibly can see, there are many classes to be realized right here. My reasoning in making this forecast was Pionk had inked a brand new deal that led to him incomes greater than Morrissey. However with that got here a threat of Pionk turning into complacent having already locked within the large contract, which can have performed a job in his outcomes. Additionally, Pionk earned greater than Morrissey solely on account of Morrissey having signed his deal earlier than he turned a 60+ level d-man. Do certainly issue salaries into the way you assess gamers; but in addition be aware of once they signed their offers and if they’re now a cut price.
Additionally, Morrissey, regardless of reducing manufacturing, stays, at the very least for now, a 60+ level d-man. And for me to assume Winnipeg would take Morrissey’s “spot” away from him resulting from Pionk occurring to ink a deal that pays him extra, and with just one season of PP success way back, was certainly farfetched after I consider it now. That is to not say issues like I predicted cannot occur, as look no additional than Darren Raddysh in Tampa; however predicting them is a shedding endeavor far most of the time.
Lastly, in making the prediction I centered on Pionk having scored at a 46-point charge in 2024-25, which was effectively greater than his norm. However not solely was {that a} 46-point tempo (39 factors in 69 video games), reasonably than 46 precise factors, however 19 of Pionk’s 39 complete factors in 2024-25 got here in his first 23 video games, that means he had simply 17 in his final 46 contests. When a participant has one quarter far and away higher than the remainder, that could be a concern, and much more so when it is the primary quarter. So do not simply give attention to a participant’s complete factors, however take a look at once they obtained these factors, and in what number of video games, plus in the event that they had been trending a lot better or worse because the season wound down, since it’s likelier that what a participant was doing later within the season will likely be extra predictive than what he did early on, particularly in the event that they had been vastly totally different scoring charges.
2) No less than 20 NHL groups could have a defenseman with the next scoring charge than Miro Heiskanen
End result – Heiskanen had an outstanding season, ending within the high ten in defenseman scoring general
Grade – F
Classes Discovered – Nice gamers can have off seasons; a participant is extra “for actual” in the event that they’ve produced at an elite charge greater than as soon as; but once more, salaries matter much less when evaluating gamers if one inked a deal longer in the past and is now a cut price; participant comparables are very often a dependable indicator
What prompted me to make this forecast was Thomas Harley‘s new hefty contract and him having had some success, plus Heiskanen’s shaky 2024-25 season. However similar to Pionk incomes greater than Morrissey after he inked his deal ending up not mattering, Harley’s new contract paying him greater than Heiskanen did not stop Heiskanen from remaining “the man” for the Stars, probably resulting from the truth that if Heiskanen was to have signed a deal similtaneously Harley, it might have been for significantly extra.
Similar to Morrissey had two robust seasons, making him tougher to displace and it tougher to realistically see him doing worse, Heiskanen had two nice seasons earlier than his subpar 2024-25. Had he simply achieved so as soon as, then possibly my fears, each of him not rising again to his prior heights or for Harley to grow to be Dallas’s high rearguard, would have been extra lifelike. As an alternative, Heiskanen’s 2024-25 appears to be like like a bump within the street, reasonably than a cause to have pressed the panic button.
I cited loads of knowledge to help my forecast, however I additionally admitted that when different rearguards who, since 2000-01 and, like Heiskanen, had a season of 70+ factors by age 23 and never later than their fifth NHL marketing campaign, the record is stuffed with superb expertise like Cale Makar, Quinn Hughes, Rasmus Dahlin, Adam Fox, Erik Karlsson and even Mike Inexperienced. Seeing that ought to have made me notice the numbers I had cited had been extra to help my conclusion than to type correct bases for it.
3) Nikolaj Ehlers will fail to achieve a 70+ level scoring tempo
End result – Regardless of positive aspects in each PP and general TOI, Ehlers completed with a 71-point scoring tempo, down from his 75-point charge in 2024-25 however nonetheless making the forecast not come true
Grade – B
Classes Discovered – What could also be seen as untapped potential might as an alternative be a practical ceiling, particularly for somebody who’s performed many seasons; not each big-name UFA will get high tier deployment; one’s crew, and the way they deploy their forwards, issues so much to 1’s efficiency
I assumed I might nailed this one, however Ehlers had a degree per sport This fall, elevating his scoring charge simply above 70. Regardless of being a prize UFA, and inking a big cope with Carolina, he noticed solely modest positive aspects in PP and general TOI, and produced at a worse charge than 2024-25. So though some thrive on new groups, for a participant with ten seasons already below his belt, and who was by no means was a minute eater, it cuts towards him reaching new heights regardless of going to a brand new crew and being paid significantly extra.
One factor I obtained proper although was how Ehlers going to Carolina wouldn’t do him many favors. That is as a result of Carolina spreads round ice time fairly a bit, with even these on PP1 not getting heaps of man benefit minutes. The result’s a decrease ceiling for even their most proficient gamers. In truth, the final Carolina level per sport winger was Ray Whitney in 2006-07.
4) Travis Konecny will rating at a 90+ level tempo
End result – Konecny produced at a 72-point charge, down from 76 in 2024-25
Grade – F
Classes Discovered – Do not base predictions primarily on one metric, irrespective of how a lot of a predictor that metric would possibly appear to be; teaching philosophies will have an effect on – for good or dangerous – the manufacturing of just about all gamers, no matter expertise; IPPs are nice indicators of those that have a nostril for scoring, but when there is not sufficient scoring even very good IPPs will not translate to elite manufacturing
The driving power behind this forecast was the actual fact Konecny had almost as many posts and crossbars hit final season – 20 – as complete targets – 24. I figured if even half of these obtained repackaged as targets, then he’d be a shoo in to attain at a 90+ level charge. The issue is though posts and crossbars hit can certainly be an indicator of improved objective scoring the next season, it is not all the time predictive. Me inserting a lot weight on that metric was at finest iffy.
Additionally, I pointed to Konecny’s historical past of nice IPPs; and positive sufficient even this season each his general IPP and IPP on the PP had been 70% or greater. But when not sufficient targets are being scored, then irrespective of how a lot of a factors magnet a participant is there are solely so many factors he can get.
When it comes to scoring, I additionally figured how might issues not get higher offensively below Rick Tocchet as in comparison with the best way they had been with John Tortorella? Properly, they did not worsen, however they did not actually get higher both, as Philly scored 232 targets final season and 240 this season, for the tiniest enchancment. What I did was fall into the lure of considering something must be higher than Torts when it comes to offensive impression; but Tocchet has a monitor report of his groups not scoring, as in six full seasons he was coach on three totally different groups, 4 occasions they ranked nineteenth or worse in targets scored, plus 14th one time, and sixth as soon as. Positive sufficient, Philly was twenty first this season, or proper in Tocchet’s regular vary. In brief, coaches have a tendency to stay to their weapons; so if one hasn’t been behind the bench for a lot of excessive scoring groups prior to now, likelihood is he will not be this time round both.
5) Every of the Caps’ six highest scoring forwards from 2024-25 will see a scoring charge lower
End result – 5 of the six did see a drop, with Alex Ovechkin and Dylan Strome doing far worse; however Tom Wilson rose from a 66 to 71 level tempo
Grade – B+
Classes Discovered – A crew’s SH% and TOIs are predictive metrics, however banking on a whole high six doing worse is probably going a stretch even when it appears all however assured everybody will falter; do account for a let down issue if one is relevant
How effectively Caps forwards fared in 2024-25 provided that just one performed over 18:00 per sport, plus the crew as a complete capturing 12.6%, made it abundantly clear they’d be unable to copy their success. Even nonetheless, it takes so much for all six forwards on a crew’s high two ES traces to do worse, and certainly one participant – Wilson – apparently missed the memo and really had a scoring uptick, however it took abnormally excessive IPPs and secondary assists for that to happen. Nonetheless, betting towards a whole crew’s high six is unlikely to yield success.
The opposite key takeaway is final season Washington performed amidst the joy of Ovi’s pursuit of, and, finally, breaking the all-time objective scoring report. With no such motivation this season, it is not stunning there was a let-down issue. When else can there be let downs? If a crew goes deep within the playoffs however probably overperformed, that can give them a shorter offseason and maybe harm them come the next marketing campaign. Or a crew like Florida, who seemed like a dynasty within the making, can do worse when the impact of so many deep runs in successive seasons takes a cumulative toll.
6) No Lightning ahead apart from Nikita Kucherov will rating at a degree per sport charge
End result – Brandon Hagel went from a 90 level scoring charge to 85, whereas Brayden Level‘s scoring fell from 85 to 67, however Jake Guentzel‘s rose from 82 to 89
Grade – C-
Classes Discovered – When there’s a celebrity and factors magnet the likes of Nikita Kucherov on a crew, it is going to result in targets being scored, however usually not as many factors to go round, hurting the manufacturing of others; watch out for gamers who’ve a sky excessive SH% or are too dependent, or not dependent sufficient, on the PP for scoring; typically star gamers want time to regulate to a brand new crew
Sure, Level’s season was interrupted by harm; nevertheless, he wasn’t thriving earlier than he obtained harm, and after an preliminary factors binge as soon as he returned, he was subpar once more. The lesson there’s if you rely on 30+ PPPts and 20%+ SH% annually, and nonetheless are seeing your scoring charge drop, these aren’t good indicators for continued elite manufacturing. As for Hagel, he’s a high quality participant; nevertheless, he had 90 factors final season regardless of solely 11 on the PP. Of the 172 different cases relationship again to 2000-01 of a ahead tallying 90+ factors, the subsequent lowest PPPt complete was 20, or almost double that of Hagel. In brief, an excessive amount of or too little dependance on PPPts are each of equal concern.
Hagel did worse regardless of taking part in way more with Kucherov than final season. Additionally, Anthony Cirelli was the third member of their line at ES, and he did not enhance versus final season. How might that be? It is as a result of Kucherov checks each of an important fantasy packing containers, which is targets happen when he is on the ice, and he finds a option to virtually all the time issue into the scoring. Though plenty of scoring happens, there are often solely at most two factors for the opposite 4 gamers on the ice, and Tampa occurs to have defensemen who can seize a few of these factors. Do not all the time assume if a ahead is tethered to somebody as elite as Kucherov that it will likely be a internet profit to them.
With Guentzel, final season he managed solely to supply at precisely a degree per sport charge, so I felt that maybe he didn’t mesh with Kucherov. In truth he won’t have, as they predominantly did not play collectively at ES. Regardless of that although, and related metrics to final season, Guentzel did higher. What this appears to be is a case of a star participant taking time to regulate to a brand new crew. Not like Ehlers, Guentzel is a star, having produced above a 90-point charge twice beforehand.
7) Montreal will end within the high 5 within the NHL in targets scored
End result – They rose from seventeenth final season to sixth for 2025-26, lacking the highest 5 by solely 5 targets
Grade – A-
Classes Discovered – The extra the indicators of a crew being on the rise, the extra predictive they are typically; an upward development within the PP is an particularly good indication of a crew being poised to enhance general.
I really feel proud about this one, since many thought the Habs both weren’t going to discover a option to put all of the items of the puzzle collectively, or, in the event that they did, it would not happen for one more couple of seasons. However to me, the indicators had been there for them connecting the required dots in 2025-26.
For one, their PP was already displaying indicators of beginning to click on, rising from 12.7% in 2023-24 to 17.5% in 2024-25. Their gamers, apart from Nick Suzuki, all had ample room for extra natural PP manufacturing. In addition they had improved their crew SH% to 11.6% in 2024-25, up from 10.2% in 2023-24. They had been solely thirtieth in complete SOG, leaving ample room for development there. Past that, Suzuki and Cole Caufield each had been bettering yearly, with nonetheless natural room to take action even additional, which they did. And though neither Kirby Dach nor Patrik Laine contributed, their children stepped up. There is not far more to it than that.
8) MacKenzie Blackwood could have a GAA above 3.00, a SV% below .900, and a QS% below 50%
End result – Blackwood was a serious disappointment, however did handle a 2.51 GAA, 60.5% QS%, and .903 SV%, though that paled compared to Scott Wedgewood‘s 2.07, 65.9% and .919.
Grade – C
Classes Discovered – Dangerous goalies have a tendency to stay dangerous, and a crew can solely make them so a lot better; do not underestimate the impression of a participant lacking the beginning of the season; goalie salaries matter
General, Blackwood’s numbers had been much like final season, apart from a a lot decrease SV%. However let’s not neglect final season he performed a 3rd of his video games for the then lowly Sharks. And to indicate simply how subpar Blackwood was, we’d like solely take a look at the comparative numbers of Wedgewood, a profession backup, plus Wedgewood’s GSAA main all the league at 25.05, whereas Blackwood was at 6.62.
Would issues have been totally different if Blackwood did not play his first sport till November 1st, whereas within the interim Wedgewood thrived? Fairly probably, as not solely would Wedgewood have been unlikely to get as entrenched as he did, however Blackwood performed solely two AHL video games earlier than being introduced again to the NHL, and confirmed plenty of rust. For any participant, lacking the beginning of the season will not be perfect; however in terms of goalies, it is usually much more impactful.
Lastly, though Blackwood was signed to be the starter, the actual fact he earns solely $5.3M made it so the Avs might afford to not reinstall Blackwood as a real #1. If he was paid $8M or extra, like many starters, the crew probably would have achieved all it might to get him on monitor. However $5.3M was not excessive sufficient to have pressured their hand. Once you draft goalies who make lower than $6M as of late, know that doing so comes with a far greater threat of them being pushed apart in the event that they by some means falter.
9) Jake Sanderson will common at the very least a degree per sport
End result – Sanderson’s ended at a 66 level tempo, up from 59, however effectively under the purpose per sport stage
Grade – D
Classes Discovered – Level per sport output for defensemen is tougher than it appears, and it is made all of the tougher when a defenseman logs plenty of SH obligation, does not have sufficient PP TOI, and has an OZ% that is too low
Would Sanderson have hit the purpose per sport mark if he hadn’t gotten harm? In hindsight, in all probability not, as he had dug himself a gap within the type of “solely” 29 factors in his first 40 video games. Nonetheless, it’s price noting that he posted 25 factors in his ultimate 27 video games, or not far under level per sport output, so he ought to nonetheless be thought-about an elite defenseman. However in Sanderson’s case, that does not probably imply attaining level per sport scoring.
For one, it is price noting too that simply 4 defensemen had level per sport outputs this season, which was up from three in 2024-25 however down from 5 in 2023-24. Mainly, we’re one thing achieved by at most a handful of gamers every season, though it would appear to be extra since those that do it get a lot consideration.
The important thing although is that compared with defensemen who scored at a degree per sport charge this season, or prior to now, Sanderson’s deployment does not appear conducive to attaining the feat. His TOI per sport was just below 25:00 per sport, which put him within the high ten for TOI common amongst all d-men and was proper across the identical, if no more, than many of the high d-men scorers this season. To this point so good. That is the place the similarities finish. Sanderson was saddled with 2:57 of PK time per sport. Sure, Zack Werenski and Cale Makar skated on the PK too, however at the very least a full minute lower than Sanderson, who additionally solely took the ice for 62.4% of Ottawa’s PP time, when the most effective of the most effective for rearguard scoring had been at 75% or above. Not surprisingly, this led to Sanderson’s OZ% not being very excessive, 49.2% to be actual. Distinction that with the highest defensemen when it comes to scoring, who had been 55% or greater. The lesson is that expertise can solely get a defenseman to date in terms of scoring if, as was the case with Sanderson, there are a number of boundaries that stand in the best way of him producing on the most elite stage.
10) Macklin Celebrini will rating at a 100+ level tempo
End result – He completed with 115 factors
Grade – A
Classes Discovered – Participant comparables, particularly for youthful gamers, might be very telling; do not assume a participant on a “dangerous” crew cannot rating at an elite stage; facilities who shoot the puck usually tend to be greater scorers; IPP stays a dependable predictor of greatness
Given all Celebrini has achieved this season, many would possibly really feel this wasn’t a fearless forecast. Needless to say solely six different teenagers posted 100+ factors in NHL historical past, and the final to take action was Sidney Crosby, who scored at a 92-point tempo as a rookie, versus a 74-point tempo for Celebrini.
However Celebrini’s rookie numbers, significantly his mixture of capturing and scoring, put him within the firm of simply Wayne Gretzky and Dale Hawerchuk, each of whom hit the century mark as a teen. And though previous comparables aren’t all the time future predictors, when it is one thing which hasn’t been achieved apart from a few occasions, and by such nice gamers, that may be very telling.
Additionally, at the same time as a rookie and on a nasty crew, Celebrini shot the puck so much, plus had elite IPPs. Sure, the most effective gamers on dangerous groups determine to have excessive IPPs; nevertheless, Celebrini’s had been very good, and occurred regardless of the crew capturing simply 8.4% at 5×5 with him on the ice in 2024-25, a quantity that might solely rise.
Will we have the ability to predict the subsequent Celebrini? Powerful to say; however when in search of him, the main target ought to be on participant comparables and elements that counsel greatness.
11) Auston Matthews will set a profession excessive in factors
End result – Matthews had by far his worst NHL season
Grade – F, solely as a result of I can not go decrease than that
Classes Discovered – Small pattern sizes are unreliable normally, however much more so when used to attempt to predict what’s going to happen below totally different circumstances; some gamers are stars in bigger half than anticipated due to the expertise round them
This was a nasty prediction, interval. It was premised on me considering Matthews not solely can be wholesome going into 2025-26, but in addition keen to indicate he could be a star with out Mitch Marner by his facet. Specifically, I relied on Matthews having scored as effectively in 2021-22 with out Marner on the ice as with him on the ice, plus Matthews having produced 17 factors in 11 video games missed by Marner in 2023-24.
There have been two main flaws there. First, in simply 17 video games from 2023-24, I used to be primarily greedy at straws. Additionally, though Marner was on the ice for “solely” 74% of Matthews’ factors within the 2021-22 season, that was a very long time in the past and nonetheless 74% is an enormous chunk, plus for 2024-25 Marner was on the ice for a really excessive 87% of Matthews’ factors. In brief, in making an attempt to color it that Matthews might thrive with out Marner, I needed to attain again too far (2021-22) and take a look at too small a pattern dimension (2023-24), making my prediction a serious attain.
To sum it up, it appears to be like extra like I got here to a conclusion, then discovered proof to again it up. However what ought to occur is the other, specifically knowledge pointing to a conclusion.
12) Gabriel Landeskog could have the next scoring charge than Martin Necas
End result – The Avs had a much better report in video games Landeskog performed, however Necas greater than doubled Landeskog’s scoring charge
Grade – F, solely as a result of I can not go decrease than that
Classes Discovered – On ice significance usually doesn’t translate to excessive manufacturing; gamers getting back from main accidents, particularly older gamers, are much less more likely to meet with success; some gamers take a full season with a crew to hit their stride
This was one other case the place I had a hunch, and tried to justify it. In doing so, as with the Matthews prediction, I needed to attain to attempt to clarify my logic, plus ignored that Landeskog wouldn’t be the identical participant as he means, and Necas, regardless of doing a lot worse following a robust begin to 2024-25, together with after coming to Colorado, is a high participant who the Avs had been going to all they might to see succeed.
Additionally, the actual fact Necas didn’t hit the bottom operating when coming to Colorado final season might be attributed to becoming a member of a brand new crew midseason, like Guentzel did. Positive sufficient, when with the crew for a whole season, together with coaching camp and preseason, he thrived.
Furthermore, Colorado realized that Landeskog’s largest significance was now not going to be mirrored on the rating sheet. I ought to’ve recognized that will be the almost certainly final result, since this was a participant coming back from a really severe harm, and at age 33. However I noticed how Patrick Kane had succeeded at a stage not seen earlier than when gamers who got here again from main accidents. In fact, Kane was a a lot better scorer than Landy all alongside, so I mustn’t have likened the 2.
Once more, after I look again at this, it looks like wishful considering which I needed to stretch to even come near justifying. If you end up falling right into a lure of constructing a convoluted prediction, or one which goes to date towards the grain, cease your self and be extra goal.
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In all, only one right, however a number of had been fairly shut. Sure, a number of misses had been very, very dangerous misses, however hopefully I am going to study from my very own classes. How did you do along with your votes? Properly, the one I obtained right was amongst these which obtained the fewest votes, and certainly one of my largest misses (Heiskanen) obtained the third most votes. However the two highest vote totals went to 2 of the close to misses, and the opposite enormous misses had been amongst these getting the fewest votes. As a complete, you probably did fairly effectively!
Questions for Mailbag
My subsequent month-to-month mailbag has room for many extra questions. To get your inquiries to me, you possibly can both ship (1) a personal message to “rizzeedizzee” through the DobberHockey Boards, or (2) an electronic mail to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the topic line.
