Welcome again to Discussion board Buzz, the place I peruse the DobberHockey Boards and weigh in on lively, closely debated, or in any other case related current threads, reminding people simply how nice a useful resource the Boards are. Practically something is perhaps lined right here, aside from trades and signings, which often get their very own separate write-ups on the fundamental website and are additionally usually lined within the subsequent day’s Ramblings, or questions which might be particular to wage cap points, which is the area of the weekly Capped column. To entry the precise discussion board thread on which a query relies, click on on the “Subject” for that query.
As is now turning into custom, I am going to begin the column with a nod to the “Who am I?” thread within the Boards the place somebody thinks of a real-life hockey participant or persona, who might be from the previous or current, male or feminine, within the NHL or not, they usually give clues to assist folks guess who it’s. You get to enter one guess per clue, and for those who guess appropriately you consider the following participant, so it simply retains going indefinitely. To your enjoyment, here’s a “Who am I?” pattern. See what number of clues it takes so that you can guess who I’m.
CLUE #1 – I am a retired Canadian ahead
CLUE #2 – I performed for 4 NHL groups in my profession, none of them Authentic Six or Canada-based
CLUE #3 – I had season of 82+ factors, however by no means once more totaled greater than 66
CLUE #4 – Though not a member of the “Triple Gold” membership that requires profitable a Stanley Cup, an Olympic Gold, and a World Championships Gold, I did obtain two of the three
CLUE #5 – I used to be a primary spherical draft choose
CLUE #6 – Regardless of being a primary rounder, I didn’t debut within the NHL till age 20
CLUE #7 – I went on to have a really lengthy profession, inserting me – for now – within the prime 100 all time in common season video games performed
CLUE #8 – However I did not all the time play for excellent groups, so I am outdoors of the highest 100 in all-time profession playoff video games
CLUE #9 – Two of the 4 groups I performed for are in the identical state
CLUE #10 – Practically half my profession playoff video games got here in a 3 consecutive season stretch that noticed me win a Stanley Cup twice
CLUE #11 – The groups I performed for are LA, Philly, Columbus, and Pittsburgh, however not in that order
CLUE #12 – My initials are J.C.
So, who am I? Hopefully you figured it out. Verify the tip of the column to substantiate, or, if not, to search out out who I’m. Now onto usually scheduled Discussion board Buzz programming.
Subject #1 – What are everybody’s ideas on Aliaksei Protas? His 21% capturing share is clearly unsustainable and screams regression; nevertheless, a mere one in every of his 66 factors got here on the PP. Does he obtain a shot on PP1 subsequent season, or a minimum of any PP time? If that’s the case, will or not it’s sufficient to offset his SH% doubtless coming again to earth? Additionally, would possibly he have one other gear in that he’s a “massive participant” and thus not supposed to completely get away till sport 400 or so?
All season it appeared like people had been ready for Protas to hit a wall, but he had 15-20 factors in every quarter, which is a optimistic since if he had one and even maybe two scorching quarters then I would be extra skeptical of his manufacturing being sustainable. He additionally had a excessive however not stratospheric IPP of 75.9% general, a secondary help price of solely 30.6%, and began a not too excessive 59.2% of his shifts within the offensive zone. These counsel he is already a factors magnet, however nonetheless has room for extra within the type of added assists.
These issues having been mentioned, there are additionally a number of purple flags. For starters, it wasn’t simply that he shot 21.4%, however the crew shot 14.1% at 5×5 when he was on the ice, plus his PDO was 1041. If these sound excessive, it is as a result of they’re, with the SH% placing him second among the many 279 forwards who performed 70+ video games, with solely two others above 13.0%. He was close to the highest in PDO, rating twelfth. Granted, these in his neighborhood in these areas embrace among the better of the very best within the NHL; nevertheless, with out their pedigree Protas does stick out.
Additionally, him having tallied 66 factors regardless of, as famous, a mere one approaching the PP, is actually uncharted territory, as out of 2284 situations of a ahead scoring 65+ factors in a season courting again to 1980-81, there have been a mere 16 situations the place the participant didn’t have double digits in PPPts, and solely two of these had fewer than 5. However there may be a point of a silver lining in that a kind of two was Dale Hunter, who did so at age 21 in his second season, and went on to put up 70+ factors in 5 different campaigns. Additionally, amongst these with fewer than 10 there’s Gary Roberts, who did so at age 23 and went on two have two level per sport seasons earlier than being derailed by accidents, plus Brandon Hagel in 2023-24, and all of us noticed that he rose even additional this season, in addition to Travis Konecny additionally in 2023-24, and he rose to 76 factors this season, and a few man named Jaromir Jagr at age 19 for the Pens. In actual fact, the vast majority of these on the record who did so at age 25 or youthful went on to a minimum of a point of additional success. Slightly than being a motive for concern, this would possibly portend stability and even room for enchancment.
The poster did point out Protas’ measurement, however primarily as a attainable motive why he might do higher since he is performed so effectively regardless of it being so much sooner than the 400 sport mark when bigger gamers are anticipated to interrupt out. However Protas being as tall as he’s places him in choose firm, as courting again to 1990-91, a complete of solely 12 gamers as tall or taller than Protas cumulatively logged 300+ video games, with the 2 – Peter Worrell and Chris McAllister – who had been additionally as heavy or heavier than Protas amounting to nothing. However they by no means had a season pretty much as good because the one he already had, so I would say that units him other than these two. As for the remaining, there are guys who had success, like Tage Thompson, Eric Daze, Nik Antorpov, and Martin Hanzal, however discover that’s solely 4 names, and three of them had shortened careers attributable to damage, with Thompson additionally having some damage points already in his profession. Protas being this good, but additionally this massive, is perhaps a trigger for concern as to his longevity.
In sum, Protas’ season had a number of main purple flags, plus his measurement places him in danger for damage, however some metrics had been affordable if not encouraging. I believe he is earned a protracted leash by way of the highest six; but when PP time did not come regardless of how effectively he already was enjoying, I am undecided it is going to materialize. Anticipate 55 factors, however with a greater probability at 60 or greater than he does at 50 or much less.
Subject #2 – A crew has an opportunity to commerce their Thomas Harley for Seth Jarvis and Alex Ovechkin. Ought to they do the deal? Their league specifics and rosters are: Roto 10 crew. 24 man roster (+3 IR) – Maintain 20 – Day by day settings, Begin 3C, 3LW, 3RW, 5D, 2G, 1UTIL, Classes: G, A, PTS, +/-, PIM, PPA, PPG, D PTS – W, SV, SV%.
C- Matthews, Larkin, MacKinnon, Scheifele
RW- Marner, Nichushkin, Barzal (C)
LW- DeBrincat, Landeskog, Knies, Slafkovsky (RW), Marchand
D- Sanderson, Chabot, Dunn, Broberg, Harley
G- Oettinger, Gustavsson, Binnington, Hofer
Definitely defensemen are essential right here, not simply because there are fewer of them who’re fantasy worthy however since, on this occasion, there’s a separate class for defenseman factors. However on the similar time, different classes that normally “favor” defensemen extra so than forwards, like HIT and BLK, will not be counted. However HIT occurs to be a robust space for Ovi too, as are SOG, which likewise will not be a class.
Harley, he had an opportunity to make a mark when Miro Heiskanen was out for a serious chunk of the second half. Positive sufficient, Harley did fare effectively higher with Miro out, producing at slightly below some extent per sport degree in 30 video games and tallying 12 PPPts within the course of. However 17 of his 29 factors got here in simply eight video games, that means within the different 22 he had 12 factors. Though it’s good to see Harley can pile on factors, the dearth of consistency is a little bit of a priority, particularly when for your entire portion of the season the place Harley overlapped with Heiskanen he had a mere 4 multipoint video games, and that was regardless of Heiskanen struggling. Merely put, Heiskanen is the golden boy. As a consequence of what he is accomplished and being paid, he is a “the man” d-man. Harley will get an enormous elevate come subsequent summer time; however I see no universe the place he makes greater than Heiskanen, except they signal and commerce him, ala Tampa and Mikhail Sergachev.
If Harley does keep although, I’ve not seen sufficient to persuade me he can thrive regardless of the very lengthy shadow forged by Heiskanen, particularly since there is no such thing as a universe the place the Stars would put two d-men on PP1. Though there have been situations of different defensemen discovering success regardless of enjoying concurrently a “the man” rearguard, like Kevin Shattenkirk when he and Alex Pietrangelo had been in St. Louis, or Mathieu Schneider or Brian Rafalski once they performed for Detroit concurrently Nicklas Lidstrom. However these are the exceptions, as since 1997 there have solely been 9 situations of a crew having two 55+ level d-men in the identical season. Not fairly an impossibility, however fairly darn uncommon.
Until he will get shipped out of city, I would say Harley will stay within the shadow of Heiskanen. In the meantime, Jarvis made good strides this previous season, almost hitting the purpose per sport mark. He is also locked into PP1, but nonetheless has room for his TOI, PPPt and SOG charges to climb. Granted, Carolina does put a ceiling on one’s manufacturing since they do not heap ice time on even their finest gamers; nevertheless, Jarvis has greater than amply confirmed himself such that his spot is safe and he ought to do no worse than he did this season.
Ovi I see as a throw in. Positive, you are taking him; nevertheless, with no SOG or HIT classes, you doubtless put him on a brief leash. However I believe Jarvis alone is well worth the value of Harley, despite the fact that there may be the defensemen factors class, since Harley seems to be overshadowed and never able to producing effectively when Heiskanen is within the line-up.
Subject #3 – In a ten Staff Maintain 6, H2H – 1 win league with classes of G, A, SOG, PPP, FOW, HIT, BLK, Wins, GAA, Sv%, SHO, rosters of 2C, 2RW, 2LW, 1Ut, 4D, 3G, 6Bench, 2-I/R+, 1NA?, and every crew being required to have 4 weekly goalie appearances minimal, a crew has the next gamers on its roster:
C: Thomas, Hintz, D. Strome, Backlund
LW: Draisaitl, Kaprizov, Stutzle, Hagel, Kasper
RW: Marner, Rantanen, Guenther, Byfield
D: Makar, Q. Hughes, Dahlin, Trouba, Seeler, Bischel
G: Vasilevskiy, Gustavsson, Blackwood
They’re intent on preserving Makar, Hughes, Dahlin, Draisaitl and Kaprizov, however are torn on the sixth keeper. Ought to or not it’s Rantanen, Marner, or Stutzle?
First off, I noticed that some within the thread had been saying Dahlin may not be a maintain. I vehemently disagree, as he rebounded massive time in scoring, and he’s superb in multicat. I would maintain him if he would solely have 60 level upside; nevertheless, with him having level per sport potential and all he additionally brings to the desk in multicat, he is a should maintain. The opposite 4 are additionally lay ups as effectively; so it is going to boil all the way down to Stutzle, Marner or Rantanen.
I would warning the GM, and others, to not see what Rantanen is doing and determine that will probably be his new regular. I occur to assume he’s a person on a mission this postseason, to point out Colorado, and to some extent Carolina, that they blew it with him. However the ice time he is getting for Dallas merely isn’t practical throughout the season. I imply if Jason Robertson did not see heaps of ice time the season after he posted 109 factors, I consider Rantanen will not both, and that is regardless of his big price ticket. Dallas has a profitable common season formulation that rolls out three scoring traces, with its prime line getting what would usually go for second line minutes on many groups. If it was me, I would attempt to commerce Rantanen, because it’s referred to as promoting excessive for a motive and ask your self when his worth would ever realistically be larger given his age and the crew for which he’ll be enjoying. See for those who can flip him into David Pastrnak, who was scorching within the second half however whose season lengthy totals considerably obscure that. Heck, the Auston Matthews proprietor could have soured on him sufficient to deal him for Rantanen, and Matthews not solely might be among the many better of the very best if wholesome, however he will get heaps of FOW and even some hits and blocks.
For those who can’t promote excessive on Rantanen although, who’s the maintain? I actually wish to say Stutzle, however I’m not inspired by his SOG and hit charges dropping, and PPPt price rising with out an uptick in factors. He is additionally nonetheless but to have a crew SH% at ES in double digits, and his IPPs, although stable, will not be so excessive as to counsel he can climb to be a constant 90 or possibly even 85 level participant. Marner is perhaps the maintain, as whoever will get him will probably be paying him a ton and he’ll doubtless have an enormous chip on his shoulder, or he comes again to Toronto to do extra of the identical. Let’s not overlook this can be a participant who has posted a 100+ level scoring price in every of the final 5 seasons and simply turned 28. To me, he is the maintain if no promote excessive deal might be made for Rantanen.
Subject #4 –In a 16 Staff, Dynasty, H2H Cat league with classes of G, A, STP, SOG, HIT, BLK, TOI, W, GAA, SV, SV%, 26 Primary Roster Gamers and 24 Minor Roster Participant (<150GP Skaters, <85GP Goalies), a crew ended the season with the next gamers on their rosters. Which fundamental roster gamers needs to be reduce for which minors graduating gamers?
Primary Roster:
F: Cates, Hayton, Laine, Zegras, Caufield, Cuylle, Mittlestadt, Newhook, Dach, Lafreniere, Mercer, Olivier, Byfield, Foerster, Laferriere, A .Protas
D: Byram, Ekman-Larsson, Harley, Q. Hughes, Heiskanen, Middleton, Schneider
G: Binnington, Dostal
Minors:
F: Barkey, Bordeleau, Hage, Pinelli, Dorofeyev, Mazur, Minten, Rosen, Vanacker, Graf, Greentree, Guenther, Gushchin, O’Reilly, Parascak, Stankoven
D: L. Hutson, Benning, Bichsel, Grans, Nikishin, Sandin-Pellika
G: Fowler, Bjarnson
minors gamers, clearly Hutson, Guenther and Stankoven needs to be promoted. After them although, I consider the one different ones to think about are Dorofeyev, Bichsel, and Nikishin. Who would the drops be? The crew would not have any “no brainer” cuts. As such, we should always begin with three, to cowl Hutson, Guenther and Stankoven, after which see if any amongst who’s left would justify selling the opposite three.
For positive a minimum of one Hab ahead is getting reduce. Dach seems like he is on the verge of being the following Robby Fabbri, seemingly on the cusp of success however for whom frequent accidents take a toll each by way of talent but additionally enjoying time. As for Newhook, some had been shocked Colorado traded him, and he seemed like he’d discovered success with the Habs solely to falter massive time. Even Laine is regarding, though a minimum of with him there may be previous glory. Dawson Mercer remains to be younger too, making it exhausting to abdomen dropping him, particularly after he confirmed early promise. However two straight seasons of sub point-per-every-other-game manufacturing counsel he’s not reduce out for the highest six. Though Dach, Newhook and Mercer are younger sufficient to show issues round, when making room for Hutson, Guenther, and Stankoven, they’re the sure drops.
That takes care of the spots wanted for the should promote gamers. Are there others who advantage reducing for any of the opposite three? Cates simply hit his 200 sport breakout threshold, however is already 26, and strikes me as at finest a center six ahead who’ll by no means discover his method onto PP1. To me, Dorofeyev provides greater than that, so Cates is a reduce for him.
With the opposite two choices being d-men, and solely forwards being reduce so far, the query is whether or not any fundamental roster d-men advantage dropping for Bichsel or Nikishin. I notice Bichsel a banger beast, however his TOI isn’t nice, and Nikishin doubtless will throw his physique round whereas additionally racking up extra factors. So I believe I am solely seeking to promote Nikishin, and to make room I am saying goodbye to Schneider, who’s respectable however unremarkable. OEL is a tempting drop; nevertheless, he nonetheless is a minute eater and it will likely be good to see the place he and Bichsel are this time subsequent 12 months.
Subject #5 – In a full keeper, H2H cap league (actual cap hits) with beginning line-ups and factors for skaters as follows: 4C, 4LW, 4RW, 6D. G, A, PPP, SOG, BLK, +/-, a crew that owns Brandt Clarke has been supplied both Marco Rossi or Jonathan Drouin and Morgan Geekie for Clarke. Is both deal value contemplating? If that’s the case, which is best?. Notice that the crew with Clarke is brief on C however has a great variety of d-men, and the crew with the opposite gamers has the alternative state of affairs.
At first look, Clarke’s 33 factors in 78 video games appears respectable, till noting that he began the season with 12 factors in 13 video games, that means he tallied a mere 21 further factors in 65 video games, which is fairly darn dangerous. Sure, he ceded PP1 again to Drew Doughty, which did not assist issues, nor did his eroding ice time general. On a optimistic observe, he was +14, though that doubtless was helped by beginning 59.5% of his shifts within the offensive zone. Additionally, the crew shot 10.2% at 5×5 when he was on the ice; and his general IPP of 42.9% and PP IPP of 60.0% had been fairly good, suggesting that when given extra ice time he ought to have the ability to produce. Seemingly, the Kings had been simply easing him into the NHL. Make no mistake – he stays the inheritor obvious to Doughty.
Rossi as soon as once more fared finest when centering Kirill Kaprizov, with 38 factors in 44 video games within the first half. After that although, he dipped to 24 in his ultimate 38 video games. He additionally did effectively however not improbable on the PP, though his barely 30% secondary help price was very low for a middle, so he doubtless left some factors on the desk.
The large query is whether or not the Wild really feel Rossi is nice sufficient to be a primary line heart, or they signal or commerce for a extra confirmed pivot given they will now spend freely for the primary time in ages. Robust to say; but when Rossi is pushed off the highest line, it’s tough to see him succeeding given his monitor document, as Matt Boldy was nonetheless capable of shine with Rossi at the same time as Rossi faltered, and the Wild would possibly wish to diversify their traces. Both method, I am undecided Rossi will discover his method onto PP1, and stick. If not, that might be a priority, for the reason that Wild are a crew that leans closely on its prime unit.
Drouin appears to have discovered a pleasant dwelling in Colorado, and my cash says he inks a deal to stay there. However he is had damage points too, and simply turned 30. Geekie discovered nice chemistry with David Pastrnak; and though there are a number of facilities who would possibly rotate on and off the highest line with famous person Pastrnak, Geekie seemingly has no actual challengers to his “spot” as the highest line left wing. We noticed what the impact of enjoying with Pasta might be, as Geekie began the season with 4 factors in 18 video games, that means after than tallied 53 factors in 59 contests, and he ended scorching, with an 11 sport level streak throughout which he racked up 19 factors.
Geekie too isn’t that younger; nevertheless, at almost 27 he is lower than 4 years older than Rossi, so it is not like he is on the opposite facet of 30 like Drouin. Contemplating the crew with Clarke has a surplus on D, I believe this can be a commerce to be made, and I am taking Drouin and Geekie in return, because the probabilities of one – if not each – outperforming Rossi are excessive.
Subject #6 – Does Macklin Celebrini have 100 level potential? Or will he settle nearer to a degree per sport degree?
Given the continued hype round Connor Bedard, Celebrini was much more beneath the radar than one would usually be in his sneakers. Because of this, many might need missed the truth that he did a variety of issues that portend greatness. Contemplate that with out even taking a look at metrics, regardless of being age 18 and by no means having performed even 55 video games at any degree in his life, he suited up for 70 video games in 2024-25, and his level whole in every quarter was inside one or two of his video games performed whole. In actual fact, his finest quarter was This fall, when many a rookie hits a wall. As a substitute, he saved up his scoring and SOG charges. That’s spectacular.
Talking of scoring and stats, Celebrini produced at a 0.9+ level per sport price and fired a median of three.3 SOG per sport as an 18 12 months previous heart. You in all probability assume that isn’t an enormous accomplishment; however relaxation assured it’s. Ponder all of the superb facilities who performed at age 18 courting again to Mario Lemieux. None achieved each of these feats. In actual fact, solely two did within the historical past of the NHL – Wayne Gretzky and Dale Hawerchuk. I notice Hawerchuk isn’t somebody thought-about to be within the prime echelon of facilities; however he had six seasons of 100+ factors, and one other 4 of 90+. He was a famous person. Though previous comparables will not be all the time predictive of future outcomes, for Celebrini to be in the identical firm as these two – and these two alone – facilities given their age 18 accomplishments appears to counsel greatness lies forward.
On prime of that although, Celebrini had an general IPP of 79.7% and an IPP on the PP of 78.6%, each regardless of beginning solely 51% of his shifts within the offensive zone and a 5×5 crew SH% of 8.4. For comparability, the forwards this season who had each an general IPP and PP IPP that had been as excessive or larger than Celebrini’s had been David Pastrnak, Artemi Panarin, Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid, Nikita Kucherov, Kirill Kaprizov. That, proper there, is just about the very best of the very best there may be in in the present day’s NHL.
Simply assume what Celebrini would possibly do when San Jose improves; they usually seemingly have the core in place to get higher quickly. Even when they do not, nevertheless, not solely do I believe Celebrini turning into a constant 100+ level scorer is a digital assure, however it might occur as quickly as 2025-26, and if not then, nearly assuredly by 2026-27. When all is alleged and accomplished, he could flip Connor Bedard into an afterthought.
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THE ANSWER TO WHO THE PLAYER IS……….Jeff Carter!
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Questions for Mailbag column wanted
The upcoming version of my month-to-month mailbag nonetheless has room for extra questions, which you’ll ship me by both personal messaging “rizzeedizzee” through the DobberHockey Boards, or emailing [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the topic line.
