Welcome again to Discussion board Buzz, the place I peruse the DobberHockey Boards and weigh in on energetic, closely debated, or in any other case related current threads, reminding of us simply how nice a useful resource the Boards are. Almost something is perhaps lined right here, aside from trades and signings, which often get their very own separate write-ups on the fundamental web site and are additionally usually lined within the subsequent day’s Ramblings, or questions which can be particular to wage cap points, which is the area of the weekly Capped column. To entry the particular discussion board thread on which a query is predicated, click on on the “Matter” for that query.
As is now turning into custom, I am going to begin the column with a nod to the “Who am I?” thread within the Boards the place somebody thinks of a real-life hockey participant or persona, who may be from the previous or current, male or feminine, within the NHL or not, they usually give clues to assist individuals guess who it’s. You get to enter one guess per clue, and in case you guess appropriately you consider the following participant, so it simply retains going indefinitely. On your enjoyment, here’s a “Who am I?” pattern. See what number of clues it takes so that you can guess who I’m.
CLUE #1 – I am a Canadian defenseman
CLUE #2 – I used to be a primary spherical draft choose
CLUE #3 – I made my NHL debut the yr I used to be drafted
CLUE #4 – However I used to be not an on the spot success, as I spent my whole age 19 season within the AHL
CLUE #5 – I additionally did good however not nice with my first workforce, by no means hitting the 50-point mark
CLUE #6 – On my second workforce, I thrived when it comes to scoring and recognition amongst all NHL followers
CLUE #7 – I’ve performed a number of seasons on a 3rd workforce, however my scoring fee retains dropping
CLUE #8 – Actually, 2024-25 marked my first season with lower than level per each different recreation scoring in over a decade
CLUE #9 – I’ve solely performed for American groups
CLUE #10 – Not one of the groups I’ve performed for, of their present incarnations, existed 30 years in the past
CLUE #11 –Even accounting for age, I look vastly completely different than I did once I was drafted
CLUE #12 – I used to be drafted as a ahead
CLUE #13 – I’ve gained a Norris Trophy
CLUE #14 – My initials are B.B.
So, who am I? Hopefully you figured it out. Test the tip of the column to verify, or, if not, to search out out who I’m. Now onto frequently scheduled Discussion board Buzz programming.
Matter #1 – In a weekly H2H league beginning 2C, 3W,1 ahead solely flex, 4D, 1G, and one flex at any place, with skater of G(4), A(3), SOG(1), PPPt(1), and +/- being 1 for forwards and three for defensemen, and with goalie classes not being listed, however there being a sign that workhorse goalies are enormous, a workforce can shield eight gamers, then of the rest one will get “stolen” and the remaining are saved. With this in thoughts, the GM is planning to guard Jack Hughes, Alexis Lafreniere, Logan Stankoven, Juraj Slafkovsky, Evan Bouchard, Zach Werenski, Jeremy Swayman, and Ilya Sorokin from the record beneath. Ought to any adjustments be made to that record?
C- Jack Hughes, Sidney Crosby, Artemi Panarin (c/w), Connor McMichael, Pavel Buchnevich (C/w)
W- Alexis Lafreniere, Logan Stankoven, Juraj Slafkovsky, Brad Marchand, Owen Tippett, Jeff Skinner, Alexander Holtz
D- Evan Bouchard, Zach Werenski, John Carlson, Thomas Chabot
G- Jeremy Swayman, Ilya Sorokin, Connor Ingram, Darcy Kuemper
Farm- Brennan Othmann, Mikhail Gulyalev
I occur to know that the one that posted this within the boards could be very keen on Laffy. A brand new coach plus the exodus of Chris Kreider appears to place Laffy for fulfillment. Nonetheless, he ended 2023-24 so effectively, I really feel we had been saying the identical factor this time final yr, and we all know what occurred subsequent. Additionally, he had his best stretch in 2023-24 when taking part in alongside Artemi Panarin, who has gotten the easiest out of many a participant however who additionally could be very more likely to depart as a UFA in 2026. His different most typical linemate was Vincent Trocheck, who was within the “scorching season” of his repeating sample of two subpar seasons adopted by one scorching season, and, if the sample repeats, is because of have one other subpar season, plus is perhaps a bit previous to presume he may rise to previous ranges of success once more, prior patterns however. Laffy’s robust finish to 2023-24 might have been as a lot if no more about his linemates elevating him as he himself doing effectively, particularly given the step again he took in 2024-25. Briefly, I am undecided Laffy deserves a spot.
Stankoven is also a priority. On the one hand, taking part in for the Canes makes all of it however assured he’ll get respectable deployment as a part of the top-nine, particularly contemplating his current extension. However Carolina is a workforce that’s stingy with ice time even for gamers who’ve had a greater pedigree and previous outcomes than Stankoven. Look no additional than to former second general choose Andrei Svechnikov solely as soon as averaging even 18:00 per recreation in his profession up to now and that’s regardless of receiving 2:56+ of PP time in 5 completely different seasons. For those who’re on the Canes and your title will not be Sebastian Aho or Seth Jarvis, you stand to not get deployment that shall be conducive to the type of scoring that will make you a hold on this format. Let’s additionally not overlook that the Canes have plenty of cap room, in order that they determine to herald a high participant, who, if a ahead, seemingly would not assist Stankoven in a quest for extra ice time and/or higher deployment. On high of that, as a diminutive participant Stankoven may wish one other 4 extra seasons to actually thrive, as he’s solely at profession recreation 102, and plenty of shorter or bigger forwards want 400 video games to interrupt out.
Who to swap in for these two? Panarin and Crosby. Sure, they do not have the lure they as soon as did, however each have level per recreation downsides and reasonable probabilities for 90+. The fashion of recreation they play may see each produce effectively for a number of extra seasons.
I am additionally not loving Swayman as a hold; nonetheless, within the thread it mentioned that workhorse goalies are enormous. As such, and given Swayman’s age versus that of Kuemper, I can settle for him as a hold over Kuemper, who most certainly will play 10-15 fewer video games than Swayman for 2025-26.
Matter #2 – What ought to expectations be for Matthew Tkachuk? Will lingering results of his harm damage his manufacturing? Can he return to 100+ factors?
What we have to take into account foremost is that Tkachuk performed no common season video games after he received damage within the 4 Nations event. His 90-point-pace by 52 video games was not negatively influenced by harm. Given he had a 90-point-pace additionally in 2023-24, that’s important. One can argue that gutting by two main accidents within the playoffs but nonetheless being a degree per recreation scorer ought to show that if wholesome Tkachuk can do significantly higher. However I am now not certain.
For one, Tkachuk’s tough and tumble fashion was sure to catch as much as him in the end, as he’s approaching the age when many extra bodily scorers will see their manufacturing drop, typically by a substantial quantity. Certainly, Tkachuk will not flip 30 till after the beginning of the 2027-28 season; nonetheless, the accidents he is had of late could possibly be the beginning of his physique beginning to break all the way down to an extent that it may have an effect on his scoring sooner than it in any other case would.
One other challenge is though Tkachuk scored 104+ factors twice, and for various groups, there have been extraordinary circumstances at play in each cases. Within the case of his 2021-22 marketing campaign with Calgary, he tallied these 104 factors regardless of averaging beneath 18:00 per recreation in TOI. Since TOI per recreation was charted by nhl.com beginning in 1997-98, there’ve been 81 cases of a ahead scoring 100+ factors in a season, with Tkachuk being the one one who did not common a minimum of 18:00 per recreation. Actually, the following lowest was 18:29, and solely 5 forwards did so regardless of averaging beneath 19:00 per recreation, with not one of the 5 subsequently hitting 100 factors once more.
But we all know that Tkachuk did once more publish 100 factors, this time averaging 20:26 per recreation for the Panthers in 2022-23. The problem is that not solely was {that a} traditionally nice workforce, and the one squad that has averaged over 4 objectives a recreation since 1995-96, however quick ahead to final season, and Tkachuk’s TOI per recreation was down over 2:00, of which greater than half was misplaced man benefit TOI, which is a giant deal. It is a surprise he was in a position to rating at a 90+ level tempo. It exhibits he’s nonetheless a really proficient participant who stays an integral a part of a really potent workforce. So long as that is ready to proceed, I really feel that 90 factors is achievable, with a greater likelihood at rising to 95 than falling to 85 on condition that his TOI cannot actually drop a lot decrease and assuming his harm points is not going to have a lingering impact.
In sum, Tkachuk is a dangerous long run personal as a result of over time the cumulative impact of the fashion of recreation he performs places him in danger for seeing his scoring fee drop, because it has prior to now for different gamers of that ilk and has maybe already begun together with his current accidents. But when he can enter the 2025-26 season again at full well being, the mixture of his expertise and his workforce must allow him to proceed to provide at and even barely above a 90-point scoring fee for a minimum of the following a number of extra seasons.
Matter #3 – A GM is in an eight workforce, hold ten, Wage Cap League ($109.8M; CAP not AAV) with rosters of 12 FW, 6 D, 1G, 4 Bench and classes and scoring of 1 level for every ahead purpose, two factors for every defenseman purpose, one level for every ahead or defenseman help, two factors for a goalie win, one level for a goalie extra time loss, and one further level for a shutout. They’re settled on 5 of their keepers, particularly Jack Hughes ($8M), Zach Werenski ($9.58M), Mikhail Sergachev ($8.5M), Lane Hutson (0.95M), and Thomas Harley ($4M). They’re uncertain about which 5 although to maintain amongst: Sam Reinhart ($8.6M), Mark Scheifele ($8.5M), Nico Hischier ($7.25M), Jake Guentzel ($9M), Nicolaj Ehlers (UFA), Travis Konecny ($8.75M), Matthew Knies (RFA), Alex Tuch ($4.75M), William Eklund ($0.86M) and Logan Stankoven ($0.81M). Who ought to be the 5 further retains, or ought to greater than 5 others be saved as a substitute of a number of of the 5 on the deliberate record?
Of the 5 “locks” the one query mark to me is Harley. He appeared to point out in 2023-24 that he may rating even with Miro Heiskanen within the line-up; however that was now not the case for 2024-25, as even when Heiskanen was struggling earlier than he received damage, Harley was not seizing the chance to step up and produce. Actually, had been it not for point-per-game manufacturing from Harley whereas Heiskanen was on the shelf, Harley would have been barely a degree per each different recreation producer for the season general. Harley additionally will want a brand new deal after the tip of 2025-26. That is perhaps a blessing in disguise although, as Dallas ought to nonetheless be fairly tight towards the cap, that means Harley could possibly be dealt and maybe change into what Sergachev has change into. Additionally, at $4M, he isn’t that costly. Nonetheless, I am placing him down as a possibly for now.
Of the others, Hischier is regular however unspectacular; the problem is he’ll want a brand new deal after 2026-27 and certain will change into too costly for his regular 75- to 80-point manufacturing. Konecny, then again, is somebody I really feel is a should hold. He isn’t too costly, is locked in for a few years at that quantity, and he produced in addition to Hischier final season regardless of taking part in beneath John Tortorella. This is a enjoyable truth about Konecny – he hit a mixed 20 crossbars and posts, which is just 4 fewer than his purpose complete! He appears poised for a giant enhance in manufacturing, so letting him go could be a mistake. At his value, Eklund looks like a simple hold, because the Sharks are solely going to get higher and Eklund will determine prominently into their plans. Stankoven, regardless of what I mentioned above, is smart on the ELC worth level for subsequent yr, and now has an affordable long-term extension for eight years after. I do stand by him not being more likely to escape in a short time, however he’s all however assured to get top-nine minutes, which, given how Carolina deploys its forwards and balances its strains, will seemingly put him within the 45- to 55-point vary, making him a vital cut price to offset among the dearer contracts.
I am additionally very excessive on Knies. By This autumn he was firmly entrenched within the high six; and the mixture of measurement and ability he brings to the desk ought to guarantee he cements a spot on a PP1 that seemingly will stay very potent whether or not or not Mitch Marner stays. I additionally appreciated that he had double digits in factors in every quarter of 2024-25, which isn’t any simple job for a participant in simply their second full season plus beneath the extraordinary highlight of Toronto. His IPPs weren’t nice; nonetheless, if he can certainly keep on a high line, they will not must be excessive, plus his secondary help fee exhibits he has room to get extra factors within the regular course, so that ought to solely assist issues. He’s a particular hold in my e book.
Tuch appears fairly stable as effectively. Sure, it’s effectively documented that he’s an authorized Band-Assist Boy. However he additionally simply had his second 36 purpose season within the final three. It is usually true that he’s in for a elevate as a UFA subsequent summer time; nonetheless, that may incent him to play effectively in 2025-26, and if want be, he may be saved only for 2025-26 and never for 2026-27 when his keeper value seemingly will spike.
The final spot is hard. I am ruling out Reinhart due to no objectives premium. And Ehlers is a priority to me as a result of who’s to say that after so a few years of being so underutilized he instantly is ready to thrive? It’s certainly potential that when given the prospect to shine he fails to take action, as he may not be capable of shoulder the vastly elevated expectations or simply not gel together with his new workforce, plus he shall be expensive. Scheifele appears to be growing older fairly effectively, and Winnipeg could be very potent. He is also locked in at an affordable quantity. Ultimately, I like Scheifele over Harley; however it’s undoubtedly shut sufficient that if the GM was actually bullish on Harley then I may see him being the final hold as a substitute.
Matter #4 –For many who’ve had success with rebuilds, what was the recipe? What recommendation would you give? The league specifics are H2H Dynasty, 14 groups, 27 roster spots (7 bench), 20 minors (beneath NHL 100 GP), Weekly Matchups – Day by day Lineups, Skaters: G, A, Pts, +/-, Pim, PPP, SOG, FW, Hit, Goalies: W, GAA, SV, SV%, SHO.
Full disclosure – I’ve by no means been in leagues the place gamers may be saved lengthy sufficient for any workforce to embark on what could be thought of a standard rebuild. However from being a loyal reader of, and poster on, the invaluable DobberHockey Boards, I do know lots about rebuilds, plus there are points which simply make sense – or do not – on an goal foundation. So I am going to share my insights right here, but in addition encourage readers to have a look at the precise thread for much more perception.
Surprisingly, I feel groups are literally a bit extra inclined to rebuild too quickly versus too late, or when it is not warranted versus when it’s. In some instances, the choice is dictated although by the prize pool, as whether it is winner take all, then one is perhaps extra incented to try to rebuild. However the challenge is different GMs is perhaps rebuilding too, and if too many groups are rebuilding, none of them will seemingly get pleasure from success in doing so, or would want extra to go proper than regular. So for “all or nothing” leagues, I feel there may be room to take action rebuild, however maybe not primarily based on the identical threshold and with the identical time-frame as might happen when fewer groups could be entertaining the identical thought. If, as a substitute, you might be in a league the place you’ll be able to come out forward even in case you do not win, then I would say it is advisable to make a good and goal evaluation of the place you might be, and determine what to do. However in case you suppose you might be within the backside tier and nobody else is actively rebuilding, you would possibly wish to seize upon the chance.
What additionally will typically dictate rebuilding is the variety of keepers. Generally, leagues with fewer keepers are much less conductive to a full rebuild. That is as a result of both the keepers will not comprise sufficient of 1’s roster, or, even when they might, the participant pool could be shallow sufficient to probably not want to really rebuild. In any other case, usually the extra keepers every workforce will get the higher the situations are for rebuilding, with this league being instance.
However how does one rebuild? The most important mistake I see being achieved goes 100% younger. Sure, it’s sensible to get gamers who undertaking to solely get higher or who haven’t had an opportunity to make a mark within the NHL as but however determine to be nice after they do. However when rebuilding you should not ignore older gamers solely. Why? Since you wish to have guys you’ll be able to commerce in season, as that’s when groups shall be hit by accidents or caught in a good race, and you may typically get a much better return for them then versus within the offseason.
Rebuilding additionally ought to keep in mind actual life hockey conditions. Getting old groups seemingly could have openings for youthful gamers to thrive within the close to time period. Groups that is perhaps underperforming now however determine to get higher may lead to purchase low prospects from impatient fantasy GMs or these in win now mode. Additionally, ask your self if groups give true alternatives to youthful gamers, permitting them to make a mark? Watch out although to keep in mind that groups may change up how they method this stuff earlier than a prospect you have banked on is ready to make a real impression. I would nonetheless give them consideration, though maybe as extra of a secondary issue.
What about stacking, or placing a lot of eggs in a single basket? Or to place it one other means, is it a good suggestion to hoard gamers from one workforce in hopes of cornering the market on them such that after they do effectively you’ll reap the advantages, whereas others will not? I feel not, as though it has excessive reward potential, it is also excessive danger. As an alternative, I would advocate diversifying, but maybe attempting to get a few guys on the identical workforce who might need very promising futures.
Lastly, do you have to attempt to purchase gamers, or draft picks, or a mixture? I like gamers most, as what you’ll get, plus I discover that fantasy GMs typically worth draft picks extra, or, to place it in a different way, are extra afraid to half with them due worry you would possibly know greater than they do.
I am certain there’s extra to cowl, however these are the foremost areas that come to thoughts. My final piece of recommendation is that if your first rebuild is not a hit, do not be discouraged, because it’s one thing the place you’ll be able to study what works and does not primarily based in your leagues and GMs.
Matter #5 – In a 12 workforce league with classes of G, A, +/-, SOG, PPG, GWG, PPA, HITS, W, GAA, SV%, SHO, a GM has the next as keepers:
C – Bedard, L. Carlsson, R. Thomas
LW – JT Miller, Slafkovsky, Nichushkin
RW – Michkov, Demidov, W. Smith
D – Dunn, Parekh, Nikishin, Buium
G – Swayman, Askarov
Additionally they have the primary general choose of their league’s draft, plus one other first rounder and three second rounders, so 5 of the primary 24 picks. The veterans who undertaking to be out there embody:
F – Ovechkin, Zibanejad, Boeser, Wilson, Stone, Trocheck, Verhaeghe, Huberdeau, Dubois, Marchand, RNH, Cozens, Monahan
D – Toews, Jones, Nurse, Parayko, Hanifin, Fowler
G – Hill, Skinner, Daccord, Andersen
The youthful gamers who undertaking to be out there embody:
F – Misa, Catton, Benson, McTavish, Yurov, Leonard, Zegras, Hagens, Stankoven
D – Dickinson, Levshunov, Mintyukov, Schaefer, Faber
G – Wallstedt, Knight
Who ought to they aim? Ought to they go all younger, largely younger, or simply try to seize one of the best general gamers?
That is truly matter to cowl after the final one on rebuilds, as this workforce seems to be to be the by-product of a profitable rebuild. The query then turns into, as they famous, whether or not they’re able to look extra so at veterans once more, or in the event that they as a substitute hold sticking to youthful gamers.
My first take is to disregard goalies. They’ve change into so troublesome to foretell, plus not one of the vets appear excellent, and the prospects are good however not excellent. As for the vets versus youthful guys, the vet record appears higher as a complete, notably Wilson, Verhaeghe, Stone and Jones. Stone will get damage on a regular basis; however when he isn’t he is superb and ought to be fairly simple to promote on the proper time. Wilson is perhaps approaching the purpose the place he begins to see a decline in manufacturing because of his age and taking part in fashion; however for now, and with these classes, he’d seemingly be coveted. And Verhaeghe, regardless of a down yr, remains to be seemingly locked into the highest six and PP1 of one of the potent groups in the entire NHL. Jones is a little bit of a wild card, as he did not thrive with the Panthers however he has zero competitors for PP1 and would possibly thrive over the course of a full season.
Trying on the younger gamers, Misa after all has enormous lure because the current second general choose. So it will appear loopy to not take him. McTavish had 34 factors in his final 39 video games and averaged practically three SOG per recreation. Between that, Trevor Zegras being gone, and a brand new coach that had a observe report of success with younger gamers throughout Chicago’s stretch of dominance, I like him as a potential choose. Levshunov, having been drafted second general and on an up and coming workforce just like the Hawks, additionally needs to be given consideration, though I am not wild about there being a number of viable younger d-men within the Windy Metropolis. The others do not cry out to me as should takes.
Ultimately, if this was me, I would seize Misa first, then Wilson and McTavish as the opposite two first rounders. If Stone, Verhaeghe, Jones and Leshunov are all out there for every of the second-round picks, I would seemingly seize Verhaeghe and Jones, due as a lot to their workforce as them as gamers.
Matter #6 – In an 8 Crew, league the place 35 are saved on the finish of the yr+5 JR slots (may be saved for 3 years after draft or fewer than ten NHL video games), with rosters of 17F, 8D, 3G, 12 Farm, 5IR and scoring of Factors (4), PIM (0.5), Wins (5), Shutouts (5), GA (-0.5), Saves (0.1), a GM has the second general choose in a dispersal draft and expects Evan Bouchard, Brayden Level, Clayton Keller, and Sam Reinhart to be out there. How ought to they be ranked?
If certainly these are the 4 finest gamers, I would anticipate Bouchard to be taken first. His 2024-25 was a let-down; however he’s nonetheless the highest canine in Edmonton and a staple on a massively potent PP1. Additionally, it is extremely a lot true that defensemen who can rating like Bouchard are a far rarer breed than even these three different forwards, who’re definitely no slouches.
How ought to these forwards be ranked? On the one hand, Level’s manufacturing appears largely tied to the actual fact he is tethered to Nikita Kucherov. However whereas that is perhaps a priority if Level was a youthful participant but to lock down his spot, or if Kucherov had proven any lingering results of the harm that precipitated him to overlook all of 2020-21. The truth is although that Level has a tremendous gig, which undoubtedly issues. Additionally, though his SH% could be very excessive, it has been excessive a number of occasions, in flip legitimizing it, plus once more seemingly is because of Kucherov’s playmaking. What would possibly matter although is Level doesn’t take many penalties, with 28 PIM over the previous three seasons mixed. Sure, they’re solely value an eighth of a degree in league scoring, however that could possibly be an element.
Keller is youthful than Level and really had a greater season, production-wise. He additionally did this for a Utah workforce which averaged solely 2.94 objectives per recreation, putting them within the backside third for the league, whereas Tampa led all the league with 3.59 objectives per recreation and issues seemingly can solely go down from right here for them as a workforce, whereas Utah ought to solely get higher, maybe fairly a bit so, and shortly, which does matter.
As for Reinhart, it’s a good signal that not like many Florida gamers his finest season with the workforce didn’t coincide with their traditionally superb 2022-23 marketing campaign. However the dangerous information is after what was a profession finest by margin in 2023-24, he dropped again to the 85-point degree which he’d achieved with Florida in his first season. Given his age and observe report, he’s, in actuality, seemingly an 85-point ceiling participant, which, in addition to him not being an enormous PIM man, places him a rung beneath Keller and Level.
General, Level is perhaps the safer choose, however I feel Keller is the best choose. Level is older and on a workforce which has peaked and certain will solely worsen. Keller although is youthful and appears to be a protected wager for 90+ level manufacturing going ahead. Sure, Level has extra title worth, which may matter down the street if searching for to commerce this participant to a different GM, however I nonetheless like Keller higher, until someway Bouchard will not be picked first general, since regardless of my holding Keller in very excessive regard, Bouchard could be the proper choose if he is out there.
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THE ANSWER TO WHO THE PLAYER IS……….Brent Burns!
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Questions for Mailbag column wanted
The upcoming version of my month-to-month mailbag nonetheless has room for extra questions, which you’ll be able to ship me by both non-public messaging “rizzeedizzee” through the DobberHockey Boards, or emailing [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the topic line.
