Welcome again to a different version of the Roos Lets Free month-to-month mailbag, the place I reply your fantasy hockey questions by giving recommendation that must be helpful to all poolies even when they do not personal the precise gamers being mentioned. As a reminder, if you would like your fantasy hockey query(s) answered within the subsequent mailbag, try the tip of the column, the place I clarify the methods to get it/them to me in addition to the main points it is best to present when sending. The sooner you ship a query the extra probably it’s to be included within the mailbag, and the deeper dive I can present with my reply.
Query #1 (from Mario)
I am in an 12 crew, H2H (Yahoo) league the place every crew rosters 18 gamers, 4 through keepers and 14 through a draft, with beginning line-ups of 2C, 2RW, 2LW, 4D, 2G, 1Util, 5 Bench, 2IR+, and with scoring classes of G, A, PIM, PPPts, HIT, BLK, SOG, +/-, W, GAA, SV%, plus a minimal of three goalie appearances per crew per week. Solely 5 trades per crew are allowed, however there are limitless pick-ups and drops.
Final season I completed 4th, and my first three draft picks can be fifteenth, twenty seventh, and thirty fourth total, which means sure, I’ve no first-round decide. My purpose is to skew younger with keepers, however attempt to stay aggressive. Right here is my roster as of the tip of 2024-25. Which 4 would you retain?
F: Filip Forsberg, Steven Stamkos, Ivan Demidov, Andrei Svechnikov, Wyatt Johnston, Mika Zibanejad, Dylan Cozens, Sam Reinhart, Owen Tippett, Matthew Knies.
D: Victor Hedman, Shea Theodore, Drew Doughty, Jakob Chychrun, Nikita Zadorov.
With 4 keepers, however 13 gamers in a single’s energetic line-up, I would say keepers matter, however not an enormous quantity. In different phrases, it might take rather a lot for somebody’s keepers to place them in a commanding place to win, but, by the identical token, to dig them into such a gap as to stop them from with the ability to win.
When you had been going to ask me who can be the 4 finest keepers total, I would in all probability say Forsberg and Johnston for positive, then two of Demidov, Reinhart, Knies, Hedman and Theodore. I like Forsberg for these classes, and the truth that regardless of the trainwreck which was Nashville final season he was nonetheless practically some extent per sport participant plus seemingly shouldn’t be exhibiting indicators of age-related decline. Johnston is right since he is each excellent now and will get fairly a bit higher, because the checklist of wingers who, relationship again to 2000-01, had at the very least two seasons of 30+ objectives and 200+ SOG by age 21 consists of a few gamers who did not pan out as hoped in Jeff Skinner and Patrik Laine, but additionally Alex Ovechkin, David Pastrnak, Ilya Kovalchuk, and Marian Gaborik, who was doing fairly nicely till accidents took maintain.
As for the others, Hedman has been up and down lately, and, if the sample continues, ought to rise once more. However I am involved he’s now 34, plus, on high of 1132 common season video games, his video games performed within the playoffs is greater than two full common seasons’ value of contests. Theodore is a high tier offensive defensemen when he performs. It is the when half that’s the problem. However one key’s when he was damage final season, Noah Hanifin performed fantastically; but when Theodore returned, he was put proper again in his typical spot. Plus, if Alex Pietrangelo does miss all of 2025-26, Hanifin can be tasked with taking part in the powerful minutes that Theodore simply can’t play, leaving Theodore to shine offensively. Reinhart, after an enormous 2023-24, fell to his scoring fee of 2022-23. I imagine he caught lightning in a bottle for 2023-24, and is an 80–85-point participant. And with no additional benefit for objectives, that’s fairly good however not excellent. As for Knies, some really feel the lack of Mitch Marner might take a toll on him; however I am not one in every of them. As an alternative, I imagine this may solidify Knies’ spot on PP1 and provides him extra and higher minutes. Demidov is very touted and appeared to step proper into the NHL. He may be a really particular participant…however who is aware of?
Let’s take into consideration what occurs in case you do not hold a participant. There can be 48 gamers stored, after which one other 168 drafted, for a complete of 216 gamers owned. Why I raised that is to surprise if there may be any real looking approach that Demidov may not be drafted. Maybe if he hadn’t dazzled for such a high-profile crew like Montreal in these two video games I would say possibly; nevertheless, there isn’t a approach somebody would not decide him. In fact, simply because he’s not stored doesn’t suggest he can’t be redrafted.
I feel if youth is a motivator, Johnston is a should hold. Not solely did he accomplish what I famous above, however he did so regardless of solely the 58th highest common TOI per sport amongst all forwards who appeared in at the very least half their groups’ video games, and the fiftieth highest PPTOI per sport. A brand new coach virtually assuredly will lean on him extra, giving him an opportunity to shine even brighter. I additionally really feel like Knies is a should hold, what with him more likely to do nicely and contribute throughout a number of classes. With him, it is best to nonetheless get at the very least 80% of the offense as you’d with Forsberg, plus comparable multicat stats, from somebody who’s eight years youthful. So Knies can also be a hold. Reinhart is ok; nevertheless, with him unable to duplicate his success of 2023-24, plus being practically 30 and a veteran of ten full seasons, I feel he has settled into some extent per sport participant, which, when speaking about 4 keepers and specializing in youth, doesn’t minimize it. As for Theodore, sure, he too is 30; nevertheless, with the video games he is missed his legs are youthful. And he’s so nice when he performs, plus this can be a league with 5 bench spots and a couple of IR, so I like him as a hold. With that although, I am not preserving Hedman. I concern father time is catching as much as him, and he has extra identify worth now than precise worth.
So, the retains are Johnston, Knies and Theodore. That leaves the remaining spot between Forsberg and Demidov. Provided that the crew needs to prioritize youth, I can get behind preserving Demidov. In fact, I notice two video games is as small a pattern dimension as one can get; nevertheless, he has shined at each stage of his profession and I see no motive why that can’t occur in Montreal, a crew on the rise. However in case you suppose Forsberg provides you an excessive amount of to toss again, I can actually get behind preserving him as an alternative. Good luck!
Query #2 (from Dwayne)
I am in a 12-team roto league which I gained convincingly final season. I can solely hold 7 gamers (2 of which have to be rookies, outlined as having performed <165 NHL video games) of the 21 gamers on my finish of season roster. Classes are G, A, PIMs, Hits, Blocks, +/-, Takeaways, SOG, Wins, Saves, and Shutouts. Every class is value as much as 120 factors (120 for rating first, 110 for rating second, and so on.), besides +/- and shutouts, that are “half” classes, which means first will get 60, second 55, and so on. Rosters are set day by day with 6F, 4D, and 2G energetic. Every crew will get a reserve of 6 gamers and a couple of rookies which may be activated any time. Within the case of activating a rookie, there must be a corresponding rookie on the energetic roster to swap out. Thus, I wish to have 4 rookies on my total roster for flexibility, and it has served me nicely. There are a complete of solely 5 waiver pickups per season and a 15 spherical entry draft. Draft picks may be, and very often are, traded within the offseason.
As of the tip of 2024-25, my crew included, notably, Jake Guentzel, Adrian Kempe, Kirill Marchenko, Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, Jesper Bratt, Mark Scheifele, Clayton Keller, Matvei Michkov (rookie), Jack Hughes (was in one in every of two IR spots), Mathieu Olivier, Rasmus Dahlin, MacKenzie Weegar, Nikita Zadorov, Brandt Clarke (rookie), Jackson Lacombe (rookie), Thomas Harley, Connor Hellebuyck, Filip Gustavsson, and Igor Shesterkin. Excessive quantity goalies and multi-cat defensemen are both stored or drafted fairly early. Not solely did I win, however I’ve all of my early picks, besides rounds 1 and 5, which I would reacquire through the offseason in trade for the very best of my non-keepers. Who can be your keepers in case you had been me? I am leaning in direction of Matthews, Marner, Dahlin, Weegar, Hellebuyck, Michkov (rookie), and Clarke (rookie).
Let me lead by saying what I at all times say on this scenario, which is in case you gained your league, I am inclined “belief” your instincts. However I’ll, in fact, assess issues objectively to make certain they try.
The straightforward half is the farm, which I feel you nailed in Michkov and Clarke. Michkov shouldn’t be even up for debate. As for Clarke, following 11 factors in his first 13 video games, he tallied simply 12 extra in his remaining 65 contests. And it was not solely a operate of Drew Doughty, as his first sport wasn’t till after the midpoint of the season, which means Clarke’s manufacturing lagged even earlier than Doughty was again within the image. Nonetheless, Clarke’s future appears very shiny, as LA had zero defensemen in April’s most up-to-date checklist of the highest 50 Fantasy Prospect Defensemen. So Clarke is poised to be a giant a part of LA’s blueline quickly, and for years to come back. As for LaCombe, he performed nicely; however with Olen Zellweger and Pavel Mintyukov within the wings, I really feel it’s a not a query of if, however reasonably when one or each of the 2 eat considerably into LaCombe’s taking part in time and favorable deployment. So I am absolutely on board with Clarke over LaCombe.
As for the principle roster guys, if there are any others to take the spot of a number of of the 5, I really feel it might be Hughes, Bratt, or Keller. Marchenko has performed nicely, however he’s not in the identical echelon as these three, nor these in your checklist. Scheifele, Guentzel and Gus additionally can be nice to get again; however what that is underscoring is it is best to certainly have the caliber of non-keepers that will be ok to entice one other crew into buying and selling, hopefully to restock your draft picks.
Of the 5 in your projected checklist, Weegar is the who considerations me most. For positive he was wonderful to personal final season. The problem is he’s not a prototype PP1 QB. Sure, he completed thirteenth in each PPTOI and PPP amongst d-men final season; nevertheless, that was regardless of a 63.6% PP IPP, which means he one way or the other managed to get some extent on two-thirds of the PPG scored whereas he was on the ice. You may be pondering that 63.6% is superb, and certainly it’s; nevertheless, for his PP IPP to be that prime, but his PPP whole to have been solely 21 is a sign that though he finds a approach to issue into PP scoring, not quite a lot of PP scoring happens when he’s on the ice. The opposite key’s 19-year-old Zayne Parekh bought a cameo for Calgary final season regardless of him being simply 19 years previous, and noticed practically 50% of Calgary’s PP time in that lone sport. Parekh additionally tore up the OHL to the tune of 96 and 107 factors in his final two seasons. Perhaps Weegar finds a approach to keep within the PP1 image for an additional season, and even two, however Parekh undoubtedly looms. And let’s additionally not overlook that at time the Flames have turned to Rasmus Andersson to run PP1, and so they might once more, particularly since Weegar is a greater all-around defensemen, who could have extra worth consuming up harder minutes.
My take is commerce Weegar now, as I concern his worth will solely drop. In his place, I am preserving Jack Hughes. I notice his future is unsure; nevertheless, what he has proven when wholesome is sort of wonderful, with the stat I hold coming again to being that him and Mario Lemieux are the one two facilities in NHL historical past who, by age 21, had at the very least one season of 100+ factors and 4.3 SOG per sport. With him, it is maintain and hope.
It is also too powerful a tablet to swallow to not hold Keller. I notice he’s not nice in multicat, however he had 49 factors in his final 40 video games, which is on the stage Marner was in Toronto. In fact, Keller doesn’t have the identify worth of Marner although, however they’re about equal in multicat. So I feel buying and selling Marner and preserving Keller is a greater concept. That leaves Bratt. Admittedly he did sluggish as soon as Jack Hughes was out of the line-up; so placing two eggs in that basket may be dangerous. He too looks as if good commerce bait although, as many will see him as a rising star with nonetheless extra to maybe be gained.
So hold Matthews, Dahlin, and Hellebuyck, about whom there may be no debate, and Hughes and Keller. Commerce Weegar, Bratt, and anybody else for picks. Rookie retains are Michkov and Clarke. Good luck!
Query #3 (from Dave)
I’ve two questions for you. The primary is with New York having drafted Matthew Schaefer first total, will he leap straight to the NHL? If that’s the case, what ought to we count on? The second pertains to the Rangers. With a brand new coach coming in, do you see Mika Zibanejad taking part in RW with JT Miller, or transferring all the way down to heart the third line? I really feel RW might be the place he ought to transition full time, as it is a place of want in NY and it’ll take some strain off him defensively.
Pop quiz – what number of defensemen in NHL historical past have appeared in 41+ video games whereas producing at higher than some extent per sport fee at age 18, which is how previous Schaefer can be for 2025-26? Properly, there have been a complete of solely 22 d-men who performed 41+ video games at age 18, of whom simply three – Bobby Orr (41 factors in 61 video games in 1966-67), Phil Housley (66 factors in 77 video games in 1982-82) and Rasmus Dahlin (44 factors in 82 video games in 2018-19) managed to finest the purpose per each different sport mark. However there have been six others who produced at slightly below that fee, particularly 0.4-0.5 factors per sport.
Why so few? Understand that groups are sometimes leery of speeding defensemen into the NHL combine, fearing it might curb their growth. However Schaefer may be likened to Dahlin, as each had been first total picks and for groups that wanted plenty of assistance on the blueline. Then once more, if the Isles are planning to tank for Gavin McKenna, why would they rush Schaefer into the NHL, particularly since it might burn a 12 months of his ELC? So I would say the prospect of him taking part in greater than the 9 “free” video games allowed are at finest 25%, and if he does, I would say 35-40 factors can be the excessive finish of what to anticipate him to provide.
As for Zibanejad, he has at all times been a terrific two-way participant and has 4+ SHP in 5 of the final six seasons, and in reality nobody has extra SHPs within the final six seasons as he does. Father Time does appear to be catching as much as him; however at $8.5M per season for 4 extra years, I don’t see a universe the place he’s relegated to the third line except his offense actually sputters. Probably he’ll shift to RW as you stated, touchdown within the high six. Much less clear, nevertheless, is that if he’ll slot alongside Artemi Panarin and Vincent Trocheck, who appear to be completely paired, or as an alternative with Miller and, presumably, Will Cuylle, which means Alexis Lafreniere can be RW with Trocheck and Panarin. In fact, the Rangers have a brand new coach coming in, so issues might unfold otherwise. There’s additionally the prospect that New York, regardless of being an enormous market crew and thus making a rebuild tough to entertain, could attempt to sacrifice close to time period success to assist improve the probabilities of higher future outcomes, particularly since it’s broadly anticipated that Artemi Panarin, a UFA after 2025-26, will signal elsewhere. Good questions!
Query #4 (from Greg)
I’m in a Yahoo! 16 Group, Hold 8, H2H league with a farm that enables as much as 7 gamers on it, who may be farmed till they hit 3 seasons of 26+ NHL video games (or 31+ for goalies). The farm is separate from the principle keepers checklist and farm gamers may be introduced up as quickly because the season begins.
Classes are G, A, SOG, PPP, GWG, SHG, +/-, Wins, GAA, SV%, SHO, and rosters are 2C, 2RW, 2LW, 4F, 4D, 1G, 6 Bench, 2-IR+, and 1NA. I have been aggressive for the previous two seasons after a little bit of a rebuild, and made some strikes this 12 months to attempt to go for it however fell quick. I’m nonetheless intent on taking part in to win, though I do additionally notice my keeper choices would possibly make that an uphill battle.
At present my keeper checklist is Mitch Marner, Kevin Fiala, Ilya Sorokin, Josh Morrissey, Kirill Marchenko, and Quinton Byfield, with two others TBD. My farm keepers can be Connor Bedard, Frank Nazar, Zeev Buium, Pavel Mintyukov, Joseph Woll, plus Fraser Minten, Maxim Tsyplakov or Noah Cates.
The others I am contemplating for my ultimate two primary roster keeper spots are Connor McMichael, Alex Ovechkin, Brock Boeser, Joel Eriksson Ek, and Mika Zibanejad. I even have Dougie Hamilton and Seth Jones as nicely, however I’m hoping one or each of Buium or Mintyukov can step in and supply considerably related manufacturing this 12 months, so I wasn’t planning to maintain both Hamilton to Jones.
In need of taking a swing at a giant identify by dangling somebody like Marchenko, who do you see as my final two keepers? I’m leaning towards McMichael as one, in hopes that he can construct on his breakout from this previous season. And what about my final farm keeper?
Let’s begin with an outline of the league. With 16 groups and eight keepers per crew, that’s 108 primary keepers in whole, plus one other practically 100 farmed gamers. Skater classes are weighted towards purpose scorers, as past simply G and SOG, there may be GWGs and SHGs. SHGs do not at all times correlate precisely to purpose scoring on the whole, nor do GWGs per se; nevertheless, if given the selection between two forwards, one who’s more likely to rating solely 70 factors however have a shot at 35 objectives and the opposite who’s more likely to get his 70 factors through 20 objectives and 50 assists, I am taking the primary participant all day lengthy.
For starters, I imagine Ovi continues to be a keeper. He tied for third in objectives and was barely exterior the highest 20 in SOG, whereas tied for fifteenth in GWG. Sure, he’s going to sluggish, however since you possibly can nonetheless hold quite a lot of younger expertise through different keepers and the farm, he’s 100% a keeper in my e book till confirmed in any other case. Who to take away for Ovi? I would say Marchenko. He had a really strong season total, however there’s a little bit of a ahead logjam in Columbus, making it so I am not sure he’ll hold his spot on PP1. Additionally, although he did not hit is 200 sport breakout threshold till later within the season, he really slowed fairly a bit, with 27 factors in his final 36 video games after beginning with 43 in his first 43 contests. He’d be a nice participant to have; nevertheless, he isn’t a keeper when Ovi is an possibility. Commerce Marchenko, as you stated you would be keen to do.
However I am not stopping there, as I am additionally not preserving Byfield, who stayed caught in impartial each by way of scoring and SOG, this regardless of his TOI per sport rising by over two minutes. Additionally, his energy play time one way or the other went down, probably as a result of horrible PP IPPs the final two seasons of 36.8% and 42.6%. And I stay cautious about him as a result of his dimension. Previous outcomes don’t dictate future outcomes; however since 2000-01, solely 18 forwards as tall or taller and as heavy or heavier than Byfield performed 250+ NHL video games, with solely Mats Sundin, Keith Primeau, Nik Antropov, Anthony Mantha, and Martin Hanzal averaging even level per each different sport scoring. And whereas most poolies are conscious of damage points derailing what a promising profession for Mantha, they won’t notice the identical occurred to Primeau, Antropov and Hanzal. And all due respect to Byfield, Sundin was excellent from day one, so he isn’t an apt comparability. However there may be Tage Thompson, who’s faring nicely and took just a few years to hit his stride; in order that may be the place Byfield house owners hope he lands. Nonetheless, of 18 there was only one main success, some respectable gamers who had damage points, and greater than half not panning out. So ultimately, I am not preserving him, as an alternative choosing JEE, who will probably slot proper again within the high six and on PP1, the place he is fared fairly nicely.
Additionally, I favor Jones over Morrissey. Sure, simply two seasons in the past Morrissey was practically some extent per gamer. However since then, his scoring fee has dropped twice, and he ended 2024-25 with 23 factors in 36 video games, this regardless of the Jets being the most effective offensive groups within the NHL final season. Additionally, it can’t be ignored that Neal Pionk not solely is now paid greater than Morrissey however the one and solely time Pionk took the ice for greater than 44.5% of his crew’s PP time, he did so for 62.7% and had 25 PPP in 71 video games. Then again, there may be Jones, who for positive has not lived as much as expectations and didn’t thrive upon touchdown in Florida. However he can be operating PP1 and may sleepwalk his approach to 50 factors, with a sensible shot of 60-70 if the Panthers keep as potent. I am choosing him over Morrissey.
Fiala was a consideration to not hold as nicely; nevertheless, I like his bounce again potential. Additionally, at the same time as he did not fare in addition to typical, he set a profession finest in objectives, which, as I famous, matter right here. I notice you’re bullish on McMichael; nevertheless, like Marchenko he really began to fare worse as he hit his breakout threshold, with 37 factors in his ultimate 60 video games after 20 in his first 22 contests. And at the same time as he was doing nicely, he didn’t earn a spot on PP1. I do not fault you for contemplating him given what he did present early on and the crew for which he performs; nevertheless, I feel he’d be outclassed as a keeper. So ultimately, I would swap in Ovi, JEE and Jones for Marchenko, Byfield, and Morrissey. Good luck!
Query #5 (from Josh)
Based mostly on offseason trades, signings, and so on., what are some examples of skaters who’ve seen their fantasy worth drop essentially the most? Perhaps checklist a few defensemen and a number of other forwards?
On the outset, this can be primarily based solely on participant transactions. I already coated the influence of teaching modifications in my most up-to-date mailbag.
I am going to begin with Aaron Ekblad. The fact is that Ekblad has solely as soon as averaged greater than some extent per each different sport if he took the ice for lower than 50% of Florida’s PP time. And the addition of Seth Jones figures to relegate Ekblad to PP2, and fewer than 50% of PP time. Ekblad additionally has seen his SOG fee drop by a full shot from 2022-23. He’ll profit from the Florida offense in entrance of him, however to not an extent that can enable him to provide at even a 40-point fee.
Though it has been mentioned in all places, I’ve to say Noah Dobson. It is a participant who scored 70 factors two seasons in the past. However make no mistake – it is the Lane Hutson present in Montreal, with Dobson, at finest, maybe discovering a approach to land on PP1 if Montreal runs its high unit with 2D. However that’s unlikely, and thus the brand new regular for Dobson may be what he produced final season, which, previous to him being traded, was seen as an outlier.
Turning to ahead, there’s Brad Marchand. All of us noticed he thrived within the playoffs; nevertheless, when it comes time for the common season, I can’t see a universe the place Marchand is within the high six or on PP1. Given this, and the actual fact he was already slowing, my guess is he might battle to high 50 factors, however can be seen by many as able to rather more.
I am additionally involved we’re nearing the tip of Eeli Tolvanen‘s probabilities to meet the lofty expectations which have accompanied him since being drafted within the first spherical in 2017. With how a lot Mason Marchment is being paid, plus the continued emergence of Kaapo Kakko and Shane Wright, I really feel Tolvanen can be deemphasized.
Nick Schmaltz‘s worth has undoubtedly dropped as nicely. He has remained a strong producer, albeit one who’s ceaselessly injured. However with little doubt that PP1 will function Clayton Keller, Dylan Guenther and Logan Cooley, the addition of JJ Peterka probably pushes Schmaltz to PP2. That’s vital, as 25 of the 63 factors Schmaltz scored in 2024-25 got here on the facility play.
And in ending 2024-25 with ten factors in 12 video games, Nils Hoglander appeared on the verge of lastly connecting the dots. Enter Evander Kane although, who’ll however assuredly push Hoglander down the depth chart at ES and maybe out of the PP image solely.
Lastly, Reilly Smith looks as if the one assured “loser” primarily based on Mitch Marner‘s arrival in Vegas. Smith had higher than level per sport manufacturing regardless of solely 15:26 per sport and below a minute of man benefit time. And though he may not see a lot much less ice time, it probably can be with linemates who will not be as gifted. Good query!
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I am at all times on the lookout for mailbag questions, so do not hesitate to ship them to me. You will get achieve this in one in every of two methods: (1) by emailing them to [email protected] with the phrases “Roos Mailbag” as the topic line, or (2) by sending them to me through a personal message on the DobberHockey Boards, the place my username is “rizzeedizzee”.
When sending me your questions, bear in mind to supply as a lot element about your league/scenario as doable. Examples of issues I must know embrace what sort of league you are in (i.e., restricted keeper, dynasty, or one-year; roto vs. H2H; public sale – in that case, what the finances is – or non-auction), what number of groups are within the league, does the wage cap matter, what number of gamers are rostered (and of these, what number of begin at every place in addition to what number of bench and/or IR spots there are), what classes are scored and the way are they weighted, plus different particulars if pertinent.
In case your query entails whether or not to choose up or drop a participant, give me an inventory of high free brokers obtainable and let me know if the variety of pick-ups is proscribed or if there’s a precedence system for pick-ups. When you’re pondering of creating a commerce, it might be good to know not solely the roster of the opposite crew you would possibly commerce with but additionally the place you stand in your classes. In case your query entails keepers, along with giving me the choices for who to maintain, let me know if offseason buying and selling is allowed and to what extent it’s a viable possibility given your league.
In sum, the bottom line is to inform me sufficient for me to present you a really correct reply, and for readers of this column to profit from the reply/recommendation I present. When doubtful, it is best to err on the facet of inclusion since I can at all times omit or disregard issues that do not matter.
