This week’s listing is about roles that truly matter, not chasing the final field rating. Each participant right here has both gained significant alternative (extra minutes, higher linemates, actual PP time) or is producing regardless of a task that deserves nearer scrutiny. The main focus is sign over noise: ice time, power-play utilization, and lineup context that may maintain fantasy worth, particularly with the Olympic break(Feb 6-25)) making a pure reset level.
Information Sources:
Participant knowledge from Pure Stat Trick.
Yahoo roster percentages by way of Frozen Instruments.
Line mixtures and power-play deployment by way of Every day Faceoff and Frozen Instruments.
All info present as of February 5, 2026.
Egor Chinakhov — Pittsburgh Penguins (9%)
Strains: L2, PP2
Chinakhov’s season lastly is smart when you zoom out and cease treating it as one steady pattern. This can be a usage-driven story, not a breakout mirage.
The uncooked line is modest: 18 factors in 47 video games (0.38 P/GP), a 31-point tempo that appears waiver-level at first look. However the quarterly cut up tells you precisely the place the worth opened up. In Q1 and Q2, Chinakhov was buried in Columbus, skating roughly 10–11 minutes an evening with nearly no power-play publicity. Throughout these first 32 video games, he had simply eight factors and 4 complete minutes of PPTOI. That position merely wasn’t fantasy-viable.
The whole lot adjustments in Quarter 3 after the transfer to Pittsburgh. His TOI jumps to just about 14 minutes per night time, PPTOI climbs to 1:18 per recreation, and he posts 10 factors in 15 video games. Extra importantly, the shot quantity lastly scales with the chance: 32 pictures in Q3 after simply 42 mixed within the first two quarters. This is not random puck luck. This can be a shooter being allowed to shoot.
The road mate context issues. Chinakhov has already seen prolonged runs with Evgeni Malkin at even power, which is a significant improve from his Columbus deployment. He is nonetheless on PP2, and the dearth of power-play manufacturing (zero PPG, zero PPP this season) caps the ceiling, however the position is actual now. His profession taking pictures proportion sits at 11.4 p.c, and he is working at 14.9 p.c this yr. That is elevated, however not cartoonishly so for a quantity shooter with a heavy launch.
Fantasy-wise, it is a short-term add with guardrails. Chinakhov provides you pictures, a trickle of hits, and legit five-on-five offense so long as the Pittsburgh utilization holds. The draw back is clear: if the minutes slide again towards 11–12 or if he loses the Malkin attachment, the ground drops quick. There’s additionally no hidden power-play upside ready except he cracks PP1, which is unlikely barring accidents.
Fantasy name:
Add in deeper leagues and 12-team codecs as a short-term play whereas he is locked into L2 utilization. In shallow leagues, he is a watch-list shooter relatively than a must-roster. The manufacturing is usage-backed now, however the margin for error is skinny.
What to observe:
Monitor his TOI over the subsequent 5–7 video games. If he stays north of 13:30 with constant PP2 time, the pickup sticks. If the minutes dip, this turns again right into a streamer profile simply as shortly.
Matt Duchene (44%) — Dallas Stars
Strains: L3, PP2 (however he is floated all around the prime 6)
Duchene is the traditional “the position is not attractive, however the outcomes are” case. By way of 32 video games he is at 20 factors (0.63 P/GP, 51-point tempo), and the quarterly cut up reveals the place the heater truly began: Q3 = 12 factors in 15 video games, with 7 objectives. That is the stretch you are reacting to, and it is actual manufacturing, not one random two-game spike.
Now the reality serum: the shot profile will not be screaming “automated maintain.” He is at 50 pictures in 32 video games (1.56 SOG/G). That is tremendous, but it surely’s not the sort of quantity that usually sustains purpose binges except the taking pictures% cooperates. And proper now, it is cooperating lots: 20.0% S% this yr (similar as final yr’s 20.0%). That is excessive, however Duchene has confirmed he can run scorching for lengthy stretches traditionally. The distinction this season is he is doing it with decrease shot quantity than his prime, so when the objectives cool, the fantasy ground will get shakier.
Utilization-wise, he is been a lineup chameleon. In Q1 he was stapled to Seguin and even acquired shifts with Johnston/Robertson. Q2 had appears with Rantanen and Johnston, then Q3 has him bouncing between Benn/Metal/Johnston and even a Hintz/Robertson look. That is excellent news: the coach is prepared to plug him into offense-driving spots. The much less excellent news: it additionally means his “line” is not a secure fantasy anchor, he is extra of a deployment device.
The ability play is the opposite cap. He is solely at 1:17 PPTOI per recreation and 4 PPP up to now. Examine that to final season: 2:31 PPTOI and 27 PPP. So even when he is “scorching,” the particular groups position is not supplying you with the massive fantasy multiplier proper now.
Fantasy name:
In 10-teamers, Duchene is a maintain in the event you want objectives/factors, however he is not a bulletproof set-and-forget as a result of the pictures are gentle for a goal-heavy profile. In 12-team and deeper codecs, he is a transparent roster whereas he is getting these top-6 rotations and PP time.
What to observe (that is the entire wager):
SOG development: if he is caught round ~1.5 per recreation, the purpose tempo is fragile. If it creeps towards 2.0+, the heater turns into plausible.
PPTOI: if he begins residing at 1:45–2:15 as an alternative of ~1:15, the PPP ground improves lots.
Linemate stability: if he is constantly with Hintz/Robertson or Johnston, the help fee ought to rise even when objectives regress.
Minutes: he is as much as 16:24 TOI in Q3. If that holds, you journey it. If he slips again close to 15:00, he turns into extra streamer-ish.
Backside line: Duchene’s heat, however the sustainability argument is “position + expertise,” not “pictures + PP1.” Meaning you may revenue, however you retain your finger close to the eject button if the utilization wobbles.
Pierre-Luc Dubois (15%) — Washington Capitals
Strains: L2, PP2 (and a complete lot of Tom Wilson)
That is the cleanest sort of “bench add” case: the season totals are meaningless proper now as a result of the pattern is mainly a serviette doodle.
Dubois has performed 7 video games and has 2 factors (0.29 P/GP), so the floor stats scream “nothing.” However his utilization in these video games is strictly what you’d need to see from a stash: 15:50 TOI per recreation and a couple of:01 PPTOI per recreation, with a number of video games within the 2:17–3:50 PPTOI vary. That is not “ease him again in slowly” deployment. That is “we’re utilizing this man.”
The sport log reveals the form of his profile fairly clearly. Even earlier than the massive Feb 5 line (1G, 1A, 2 PPP, 17:35 TOI), he was already getting actual power-play minutes (3:50 vs BOS, 2:30 at DAL, 2:17 at NYI). The factors did not come as a result of the shot quantity was modest and the pattern is tiny, however the ice time says the teaching employees is not treating him like a passenger.
An important element you pasted is the linemate rotation. In Q1 he is repeatedly tied to Tom Wilson and both Protas or McMichael, and he even acquired a glance with Ryan Leonard. That is a “heavy forecheck, create chaos, let PLD deal with the center” sort of trio. For fantasy, that is good for hits and faceoffs stability, and it could possibly change into points-friendly if the PP utilization stays regular.
Now the realism verify: he is not supplying you with a shot-floor proper now (1.57 SOG/G in 2025–26) and Washington’s setup has traditionally been extra “finishers + puck movers” than “Dubois runs the entire present.” So the ceiling is determined by whether or not the PP2 position is definitely significant, or simply second-unit cardio.
Fantasy name:
In a 10-team league, he is a bench maintain / speculative add solely if in case you have room and also you’re making an attempt to get forward of a post-break bump. In 12-team and deeper (particularly codecs that depend FOW + HIT), he is a sensible stash as a result of the position is already supplying you with class scaffolding even earlier than the factors normalize.
What to observe after the Olympic break:
TOI stays 16+ and PPTOI stays ~2:00+ → the purchase case strengthens quick.
Line stays Wilson + Protas/McMichael constantly → extra secure manufacturing expectations.
Shot fee rises (even to ~2.0 SOG/G) → factors change into a lot much less fragile.
If PPTOI falls beneath 1:15 for a stretch → he is again to being a reputation greater than a play.
He is not a “should add” at the moment. He’s the sort of participant who turns into annoying to accumulate two weeks from now if the utilization holds and the factors begin matching it.
Jonathan Marchessault (15%) — Nashville Predators
Strains: L2, PP1 (however the PP story is weirder than it appears)
Marchessault is producing sufficient to tempt you, and his class combine continues to be fantasy-friendly… however the utilization development is quietly shifting the improper means.
Begin with the baseline: 17 factors in 38 video games (0.45 P/GP, 37-point tempo) with 89 pictures (2.34 SOG/G) and 51 hits (1.34 HIT/G). That is a usable banger-league winger even when the factors aren’t popping, as a result of he is not a “points-only ghost.” His taking pictures proportion (11.2%) is completely regular for him (profession 11.4%), so this is not a fluke heater pushed by unsustainable ending.
Now the purple flag: power-play time is trending down.
Quarter-by-quarter PPTOI:
Q1: 3:17 PPTOI, 2 PPP
Q2: 2:29 PPTOI, 2 PPP
Q3: 1:56 PPTOI, 1 PPP
That issues as a result of Marchessault’s greatest fantasy years are nearly at all times fueled by actual PP1 quantity. In his large Vegas seasons he lived round ~3:00+ PPTOI and banked PPP constantly. This yr he is nonetheless labeled PP1, however his precise share is not as dominant as you’d count on for a real PP1 centerpiece.
The even-strength deployment can be much less secure than you’d need. He is had stretches with Haula and Bunting, some appears with Forsberg, after which Q3 contains time with McCarron/Cole Smith (which is… not precisely the fantasy promised land). That sort of line shuffling can nonetheless work when Nashville is scorching, but it surely makes him extra of a “journey the wave” participant than a set-it-and-forget-it anchor.
The excellent news is that the current recreation log reveals him staying concerned: pictures are there (a number of 3–5 shot video games), and he is nonetheless getting significant PPTOI nights (3:32 on Feb 5, 2:59 on Jan 29). So, it isn’t a complete PP collapse, extra like inconsistent deployment that often spikes.
Fantasy name:
Marchessault is a bench add / maintain relying on league depth. In 12-team bangers, he is typically rosterable as a result of the pictures + hits ground is actual. In shallow leagues, he is extra of a schedule/warmth streamer except the PP1 utilization stabilizes again nearer to his Q1 workload.
What to observe (this decides whether or not it “sticks”):
PPTOI: if he is constantly again over 2:30 an evening, his PPP tempo ought to climb, and he turns into a assured maintain.
Even-strength linemates: if he is recurrently with Forsberg (or one other prime finisher) relatively than the McCarron line, his help/level ceiling rises.
Photographs keep 2.5+ per recreation: that retains the purpose ground intact even when Nashville cools.
So yeah, he is helpful proper now, however the wager is not “Preds are scorching.” The wager is “Marchessault retains sufficient PP1 juice + retains taking pictures.” If both of these drops, he turns right into a middling peripherals winger quick.
Vladislav Gavrikov (5%) — New York Rangers
Strains: L1, PP1, PK1 (aka “performs half the sport”)
Gavrikov is the definition of a format-dependent add. In case your league rewards the boring violence of actuality (blocks, minutes, some hits), he can matter. If it is largely factors/PPP, you are mainly betting towards his whole profession.
The offensive baseline is what it’s: 21 factors in 57 video games (0.37 P/GP, 30-point tempo) with 84 pictures (1.47 SOG/G). That is not shifting fantasy needles in most codecs. However the deployment is nuts: 24:04 TOI per recreation, and his recreation log is filled with 25–28 minute nights. That sort of workload creates a really dependable peripherals ground.
The most important change vs. his prior seasons is particular groups utilization—particularly energy play. His quarterly PPTOI jumps exhausting:
Q1: mainly none (0:04 PPTOI)
Q2: 0:48 PPTOI
Q3: 2:48 PPTOI, with 3 PPP
That is the entire story: he went from “no PP position” to “precise energy play minutes.” Even when he is not a pure PP quarterback, sheer time-on-ice can brute-force some assists and secondary factors. And he is already proven it: his Q3 level fee improved (6 factors in 14 video games) whereas his PPTOI spiked.
Now the fact verify (as a result of that is the place fantasy gamers get tricked by labels like PP1):
Gavrikov’s profession reveals he is nearly by no means been a PP producer. Earlier than this season he basically had no power-play scoring. So the proper expectation is modest PPP trickle, not a breakout. His worth continues to be anchored within the classes he truly controls: blocks and minutes. This yr he is at 86 blocks in 57 video games (1.51 BLK/G), and that is the sort of quantity that wins weeks in banger codecs when streamed accurately.
Yet one more factor: his plus/minus is ugly (-13), and with large minutes that may be an actual drag in leagues that depend it. That is the worth of residing on the ice.
Fantasy name:
Bangers/cats leagues (BLK-heavy): robust add/maintain as a “ground” defenseman, particularly in the event you’re already good on objectives/assists and wish class stuffing.
Factors leagues / PPP-focused codecs: fringe add except your scoring meaningfully rewards blocks and TOI; in any other case you are paying roster area for low-ceiling offense.
What to observe:
If his PPTOI stays 2:00+ per night time, he can truly preserve that ~30-point tempo with occasional PPP spikes.
If PPTOI drops again beneath 1:00, he turns into “blocks-only,” which continues to be helpful, simply extra streamable.
Watch the associate rotation (Fox/Schneider). If he is glued to Fox at even power, his help odds enhance a bit simply by way of puck touches.
Backside line: Gavrikov is not instantly a fantasy weapon as a result of Panarin moved (that sort of ripple is often actual for forwards/PP quarterbacks, not stay-at-home minute-munchers). He’s a dependable class plug with a uncommon new PP position that may give you simply sufficient further juice to matter in the appropriate league.
