Welcome again to Discussion board Buzz, the place I peruse the DobberHockey Boards and weigh in on energetic, closely debated, or in any other case related current threads, reminding people simply how nice a useful resource the Boards are. Almost something is perhaps lined right here, aside from trades and signings, which normally get their very own separate write-ups on the important web site and are additionally usually lined within the subsequent day’s Ramblings, or questions which might be particular to wage cap points, which is the area of the weekly Capped column. To entry the precise discussion board thread on which a query is predicated, click on on the “Matter” for that query.
As is now turning into custom, I will begin the column with a nod to the sadly now dormant “Who am I?” thread within the Boards the place somebody considered an actual life hockey participant or persona, who will be from the previous or current, male or feminine, within the NHL or not, and so they give clues to assist individuals guess who it’s. You get to enter one guess per clue, and if you happen to guess accurately you consider the subsequent participant, so it simply retains going indefinitely. To your enjoyment, here’s a “Who am I?” pattern. See what number of clues it takes so that you can guess who I’m.
CLUE #1 – I am a retired non-North American NHL ahead
CLUE #2 – I by no means performed an NHL recreation for the staff that drafted me
CLUE #3 – I did not debut within the NHL till age 27
CLUE #4 – My profession practically led to my early 20s as a result of an on ice damage that left me legally blind in a single eye
CLUE #5 – Once I got here to the US, I fared properly, with a 54 level scoring tempo in my first season
CLUE #6 – Little did anybody know, however that might be one of the best scoring price of my NHL profession
CLUE #7 – Attributable to how outdated I used to be after I debuted, I used to be a UFA after two NHL seasons, and signed with a brand new staff
CLUE #8 –I used to be profitable on that staff on the outset as properly, topping the 50 level mark in my first season for them
CLUE #9 – However the next season I had fewer than a 3rd that many factors and my minus ranking was practically double my level whole
CLUE #10 – I did bounce again to almost 50 factors although a pair seasons later, however it was all downhill from there, and my profession culminated with poor seasons on three completely different groups
CLUE #11 – After my NHL profession, I performed in my dwelling nation for 2 extra seasons
CLUE #12 – The NHL groups I performed for, so as, have been Boston, Colorado, Arizona, Chicago, after which Colorado once more
CLUE #13 – I used to be born in Sweden
CLUE #14 – My initials are C.S.
So, who am I? Hopefully you figured it out. Examine the top of the column to verify, or, if not, to seek out out who I’m. Now onto frequently scheduled Discussion board Buzz programming.
Matter #1 – In a factors solely keeper, how ought to these defensemen be ranked/tiered? Adam Fox, Victor Hedman, Shea Theodore, Darren Raddysh, Dougie Hamilton, John Carlson, Roman Josi and Jacob Chychrun?
First off, there are some unknowns concerned. Does Raddysh, who’s a UFA, re-sign with Tampa? Will Dougie Hamilton, regardless of not being traded by the deadline, get moved within the offseason? Will Carlson re-sign with Anaheim? For functions of answering, I will assume everybody shall be on their present staff in 2026-27, together with upcoming UFAs Raddysh and Carlson.
Topping the listing is Fox. New York is poised to be a awful subsequent season, and maybe properly past. Many make the error of pondering if one performs for a poor staff they can not produce. Sure, one of the best groups have a tendency to attain so much; however loads of dangerous groups have gamers who’re strong scorers. If something, New York might want to lean on Fox greater than ever to do what he does finest, which is present blueline offense. Of the eight, he is nonetheless one of the best guess to provide essentially the most factors.
Chychrun has thrived this season, with over three SOG per recreation and now PP1 is certainly his. However he is underperformed on the PP, with the eleventh highest PPTOI of any d-man this season, however solely tied for 18th in PPPts. However for what it is value, he solely had three of his 14 PPPts in his first 21 video games, with 11 in his final 41. Nonetheless not excellent, however higher. If he can enhance in that space, he could possibly be tops on the listing; however for now, the uncertainty places him solely in second place.
After these two, it will get murky. Josi has bounced again properly; however he is previous the age when d-men usually gradual. But he is nonetheless the unquestioned supply for blueline offense in Nashville and to me that places him in third. I’ve acquired Raddysh simply behind him. I lined Raddysh in my previous two mailbags, and he is a unicorn in what seeing. He is finished properly sufficient for lengthy sufficient that I see him as having arrived. Nonetheless although, anticipating this degree of manufacturing is not sensible, and as an alternative I would pencil him in for 50-60 factors, but with a greater likelihood at 60+ than falling beneath 50.
Subsequent is Hamilton. When he cares, he can produce, and produce properly. The difficulty is he typically simply doesn’t care, or so it appears. We may even see him rating at a 70-point price in a coming season, but when so then he’d doubtless disappoint thereafter, as has primarily been his sample. That solely places him on this spot. After him, and given his transfer to Anaheim, is Carlson. He’d been supplanted by Chychrun, however with Anaheim he might have one other lease on life, ala Brent Burns upon arrival in Carolina. Nonetheless, with so many different choices for the Geese, I can’t rank Carlson greater.
Had this been a season in the past, I would have put Theodore second, as till then the knock on him was he acquired harm an excessive amount of, however when wholesome he produced fantastically. In actual fact, he was eighth in d-man factors per recreation over the prior two seasons. Maybe as a result of not trusting his sturdiness, or a surplus of ahead expertise, Vegas has opted for a 5F PP1, and caught with it, and the outcomes have been nice, as their PP dialog proportion is third finest within the NHL. Predictably this has gutted Theodore’s scoring, as has him going from taking the ice for 72.1% of his staff’s PP time and 4.9% of its SH time final season, to 32.5% of the PP and 43.5% of the PK. The latter is perhaps as a result of Alex Pietrangelo being out; however it’s not a very good signal for Theodore, as are the presences of Noah Hanifin and, for now, Rasmus Andersson. Regardless, he nonetheless does have the potential to be nice.
Hedman brings up the rear. He is within the twilight of lengthy and excellent profession, however he is not the chief supply of blueline offense for his groups, and it’s taking a toll on his scoring. If issues keep as they’re, I do not see this altering, making it powerful for me to check him posting greater than 50 factors, if even that.
Matter #2 – Within the prime 300 keeper league rankings for March, Peyton Krebs is now 218th. Can he do even higher than what we’re seeing now when it comes to scoring?
A former eighth total decide who was seen as a key piece within the Jack Eichel commerce, Krebs has since disenchanted, having by no means reached even 30 factors. However he is solely 25 and has been utilized in a top-six function at occasions by Buffalo. Does this enhance his outlook? Not from the place I sit.
Maybe in response to his scoring having fallen properly in need of expectations, Krebs has change into a extra bodily participant, along with his hits per recreation rising from 1.25 in his first full season with Buffalo, to 1.35 in his second, to 1.63 final season, to 2.36 per recreation for 2025-26. This has seemingly caught the eye of the Sabres’ teaching workers, with Krebs getting used at occasions within the top-six, which hadn’t occurred with any regularity at any level in his Sabres tenure.
This is the problem – it hasn’t made a distinction for his offensive manufacturing. In a current recreation he took the ice for over 20 minutes however nonetheless had zero SOG and never a second of PP time. But once more his SOG price is the place it has been all his profession, between 0.9 and 1.1 SOG per recreation. For those who do not shoot the puck, and will not be logging PP time, it’s nearly inconceivable to have any measurable scoring influence. In actual fact, taking a look at forwards since 2000-01 who had two or fewer PPPts, the very best level whole for any ahead who took fewer than 100 SOG (i.e., not less than 1.2 per recreation) was 37 in 66 video games, with 65 SOG, by Rem Pitlick in 2021-22. We all know that he went nowhere from there. The subsequent highest was Jake Evans, with 36 factors in 82 video games with 80 SOG final season. His manufacturing has fallen off this season. In brief, if you happen to do not shoot and do not get PPPts, tallying even some extent per each different recreation would basically be a miracle. If by some means Krebs does proceed to be a top-six participant, till/until he begins to shoot extra and/or will get PP time, he is unlikely to see his scoring price go a lot above 30 factors, if even that prime.
Matter #3 – In a H2H preserve 4 league with beginning lineups of 3C, 2LW, 2RW, 3D, 1UTIL, 2G, plus 9 Bench and classes of G, A, Pts, +/-, PPP, SOG, HIT, BLK, W, GAA, SV%, a GM is planning to maintain Nathan MacKinnon (C), Connor Bedard (C, RW), Brayden Level (C), and Tim Stutzle (C, RW) however has been provided Mikko Rantanen (RW, LW) and a tenth spherical decide for Stuzle, Jet Greaves and an eleventh spherical decide. Ought to they settle for the deal?
Usually wingers are coveted as a result of there as so many facilities who produce so properly, versus comparatively fewer wingers. It is taking place this season as properly, with 36 facilities producing at a 70+ level scoring price, versus 11 LWs and 18 RWs. However for this arrange, as much as 4 facilities will be in a single’s beginning line-up, versus, at most, 3 RWs and a pair of LWs or 2 LWs and three RWs. Whereas usually the considered conserving 4 forwards who’re all middle eligible could be seen as too many, for this league it is perhaps superb, particularly since two are also RW eligible. Nonetheless, none can slot as a LW, leaving a gap there. Though these could be nice facilities to have, it could pressure the staff’s hand when it comes to drafting, having to maybe attain to take LWs sooner than regular or threat being left with scraps. Rantanen’s diversification could be good, despite the fact that it could come on the expense of one of many two middle eligible gamers who additionally occurs to be RW eligible as properly.
If this was me, I would do my finest to swap in Level for Stutzle because the participant to be traded. It is excellent since after getting back from damage Level has been scorching, which masks the truth that regardless of him being tethered to Nikita Kucherov, probably the most elite forwards within the NHL, and capturing over 20% in his two prior season whereas including 30+ PPPts, Level had seen his scoring price drop, in addition to his SOG price. His IPPs will not be nice, and he is nonetheless on monitor to do worse this season despite the fact that Tampa is capturing 14.9% at 5×5 with him on the ice. His SOG price and TOI are on monitor to be the worst in 5 seasons. If the opposite GM will take Level as an alternative, I would make the commerce in a heartbeat, even when I needed to ship again a fair higher draft decide. Rantanen is similar age as Level and a 100-point ground participant, whereas Stutzle has had a really strong season, plus is much better in multicat than Level.
Would I nonetheless do the deal if the opposite GM is unwilling to swap in Level, and insists upon Stutzle? Probably sure, as a result of Rantanen being so constant and checking that vital LW field. It might harm to lose Stutzle, and the chances are Level will proceed to disappoint; nevertheless, maybe the transfer is to make this commerce then look to maneuver Level for a defenseman, to once more additional diversify keeper positions.
Matter #4 – Ought to Jesper Bratt house owners in keepers be genuinely involved? Or are his struggles this season doubtless a blip within the radar?
With two point-per-game seasons in a row going into 2025-26, each of which occurred regardless of prolonged absences of Jack Hughes, it was thought by most that Bratt had “arrived” as a participant with level per recreation ground. However this season he is faring significantly worse, particularly after we pause to think about he had 19 factors in his first 20 video games. Regardless of being again with Hughes in Q3, Bratt isn’t producing wherever close to his regular price. Are there causes for concern? Let’s discover out.
His SH% is 9.7%, with a profession price of 12.2% coming into this season. If he was at his common price, that might imply 4 extra objectives. His private SH% is beneath his norm, and the staff’s at 5×5 with him on the ice, at 5.8%, is each actually low usually and for him, as his common over the previous 4 seasons was 9.8%. That the majority undoubtedly has nowhere to go however up, and, with that, his scoring price. Why am I so assured? As a result of Bratt but once more has an total IPP over 70%, which is the speed I affiliate with elite gamers. It might be one factor if he’d faltered in that space too; however he hasn’t, suggesting he ought to rebound.
The place I do have considerations although is PP manufacturing. He gave the impression to be on the rise in that space, with 22 in 82 video games in 2022-23, 27 in 82 video games in 2024-25, and 34 in 81 video games final season. For 2026-27 although, he stands at 15 in 63 contests. His PP IPP is low, however not manifestly. To me, this means that his PP price from final season was unsustainably excessive. But even acknowledging that, for him to be solely at 15 appears low, and he ought to proper that ship not less than considerably over the rest of 2026-27.
So far as different metrics, Bratt’s OZ% and secondary help price are akin to his norms, as are his TOIs, each total and on the PP. I believe the conclusion to attract is his flirtation with 90 factors final season doubtless was an outlier; nevertheless, him being at a 61 level scoring price is actually too low. I would financial institution on him producing at roughly an 80-point price of the remainder of the season, and setting that as his benchmark for future seasons.
Matter #5 – In a factors solely keeper league, who’s one of the best personal amongst Thomas Chabot, Rasmus Andersson, and Bowen Byram?
That is an attention-grabbing query as a result of every participant is at a unique level of their profession. Chabot is a veteran who regardless of being displaced from PP1 by Jake Sanderson has confirmed that he can stay a 45-50 level participant. In actual fact, he is virtually as constant as they arrive, and this regardless of his TOI being down a full minute since final season. Though it looks like he is been round without end, he solely simply turned 29 and is signed for a couple of extra seasons, so he doubtless can proceed to provide for various years.
Andersson had flashes of strong manufacturing in Calgary; nevertheless, his manufacturing had been on a downward swing the previous two seasons. That is why him rebounding to the extent he has this season, on the cusp of turning into a UFA, is sounding alarm bells in my head. But when we peel again the onion, there is perhaps legitimacy to his scoring price. Sure, his staff SH% of 10.0% is the primary season of his profession that he is been in double digits there, so he is perhaps as a result of give again some factors; nevertheless, he has a secondary help price of solely 28%, which might be low for a ahead however for a d-man is nearly extraordinary and would greater than offset any factors he’d lose if his 5×5 staff SH% drops. His OZ% can also be low, doubtless as a result of Calgary’s struggles. With Vegas, that ought to rise, inserting him in conditions extra conducive to scoring. Additionally, his IPPs, each total and on the PP, are proper at regular ranges. Probably he doesn’t re-sign with the Golden Knights, who have already got Shea Theodore, Alex Pientrangelo and Noah Hanifin of their prime 4. I might see him going to a staff the place he’d have the ability to finest the purpose per each different recreation mark in most seasons, though topping 50 once more doubtless could be a stretch.
Byram is the wild card. After beginning the season with 5 factors in 15 video games, he is since tallied 26 in 48, for a scoring price proper close to these of Andersson and Chabot. He is additionally properly youthful. However he has not made inroads to getting PP time, and hardly shoots. In reality, a rising Buffalo tide is perhaps lifting his boat extra so than he’s himself. For certain he is the wild card, with the bottom ground however maybe additionally the very best ceiling, albeit one which is way from assured to occur.
I believe the selection amongst them is dependent upon the staff and its trajectory. If a staff is attempting to win now and wishes a “regular eddie” then Chabot is the most secure guess. But when a staff is rebuilding or is wanting extra forward, then Byram is probably going definitely worth the threat. Andersson looks like the odd man out, though if he indicators someplace that can doubtless put him on PP1 and the staff has a fairly strong group of constant performers, then Andersson’s greater threat however greater reward would doubtless make him the decide.
Matter #6 – In a H2H, preserve 3 for (as much as 4 years most), 12 staff league with beginning lineups of 2C, 2RW, 2LW, 1F, 4D, 1 Util, 2G, 3 Bench, 1IR, 2IR+ and classes of G, A, P, +/-, SOG, PPP, HIT, BLK, W, GAA, SV%, SV, a GM has the next roster:
C – Connor McDavid, Vincent Trocheck, Bo Horvat, Nazem Kadri
RW – Owen Tippett, Drake Batherson, Jean-Gabriel Pageau
LW – Jason Robertson, Dylan Holloway, Evan Rodrigues
D – Cale Makar, Noah Dobson, Darnell Nurse, Jackson Lacombe
G – Connor Hellebuyck, Ilya Sorokin, Brandon Bussi
They’ve made the playoffs and wish to win all of it. In order that they’re contemplating a commerce of Makar and droppable gamers for Mark Stone, Tage Thompson, Matthew Tkachuk, and Matthew Schaefer. Is it unthinkable to make this commerce, given it is Makar, who’s a prime 5 scorer on this format?
Curiously, one piece of data not given within the query, nor requested within the thread, is what number of years Makar has already been stored. The secret is Schaeffer will be stored for 4 seasons for certain since he is a pure rookie. If Makar, as wonderful as he’s, will be stored just one extra season, or maybe two, that issues, and virtually assuredly tilts the scales. However let’s assume Makar has essentially the most attainable worth, which means he too could possibly be stored for 4 extra seasons. Is that this certainly a deal that must be entertained?
Trying on the staff, I would say sure. The three forwards could be good upgrades, and the staff is already set in web, plus Schaefer, though a downgrade from Makar, is taking part in at a excessive degree already, and seemingly will solely enhance. The excellent news is the commerce wouldn’t trigger the opposite staff to dam this staff’s path to victory. Sure, virtually assuredly the opposite staff could be in a greater spot with respect to keepers. hat is a later downside although, whereas successful is a now situation. When you possibly can go for the win, you go for the win; and 20+ video games from these 4 will virtually assuredly quantity to greater than the identical quantity for Makar and three worse forwards.
Additionally, if Makar isn’t traded, he’d be stored with McDavid. In his place Schaefer is stored, and assuredly for as much as 4 extra seasons. The final keeper will be somebody who was on the roster already, or even perhaps one of many different acquisitions. In brief, this provides the staff a greater likelihood to win, and seemingly doesn’t set them again too far so far as keepers. As troublesome as it’s to half with Makar, I believe it’s the proper factor to do underneath these particular circumstances.
Matter #6 – What is the trajectory of Beckett Sennecke? How good can he be, and the way quickly?
As of now, the Geese have three gamers age 22 or youthful on tempo for 65+ factors. Sennecke is the youngest, and solely true rookie, however he is shining to this point. I believe he is solely going to get higher from right here.
My reasoning is his IPPs, each total and on the PP, are each over 70%, which is what I see from most elite gamers. It might be one factor if he was at these charges taking part in with much less proficient forwards; nevertheless, it is coming whereas on PP1 and on scoring traces. In contrast to most rookies, who hit a wall when confronted with the trials of an 82 recreation NHL schedule, he is solely getting higher, as his scoring price and SOG price have each elevated every quarter. For Q3 he is been at some extent per recreation and practically three SOG per recreation, this regardless of skating primarily with Mikael Granlund and Alex Killorn, somewhat than Cutter Gauthier and Mason McTavish, as he did in Q1 and Q2.
Sennecke’s PP scoring can also be beginning to rise, as of his whole of 11 PPPts on the season, six, i.e., greater than half, have are available simply the final ten video games. His TOI additionally has been 18:43+ in all however two of these ten video games, after being above that TOI threshold simply 4 previous to the calendar flipping to 2026.
His OZ% is 59.3%, which does present he has been sheltered to a point. It’s miles lower than many different rookies, and never regarding. Additionally, his 35.5% price of secondary assists recommend he has room for extra factors within the regular course, as does his 986 PDO and 9.2% staff SH at 5×5 with him on the ice.
There may be concern in that at most 4 forwards shall be on PP1, and veterans Chris Kreider and Mikael Granlund have thrived on the PP previously. However Sennecke has been on PP1 greater than not of late, though admittedly there has not been a time since he began rising that the entire staff’s PP1-caliber forwards have been wholesome. For instance now Granlund and Terry are out, whereas earlier it was Carlsson. Has Sennecke finished sufficient to maintain a PP1 spot as soon as all of Kreider, Terry, Carlsson, McTavish, Gauthier, Granlund and him are wholesome? Robust to say, however even when not we must always understand that Kreider’s deal ends after subsequent season, and Granlund’s after 2027-28. So even when he is not a PP1 fixture now if all are wholesome, he figures to be.
If Sennecke isn’t on PP1 persistently, he doubtless could have a tricky time rising to far more than a 70-point tempo. If he’s although, then 70 must be a breeze, with point-per-game upside within the close to time period and 90+ potential as soon as he hits his breakout threshold. Certainly, he looks like the true deal and a participant to attempt to purchase earlier than the asking worth will get too excessive.
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THE ANSWER TO WHO THE PLAYER IS……….Carl Soderberg!
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Questions for Mailbag column wanted
The upcoming version of my month-to-month mailbag nonetheless has room for extra questions, which you’ll be able to ship me by both personal messaging “rizzeedizzee” through the DobberHockey Boards, or emailing [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the topic line.
